Latest news with #labourshortages
The Guardian
2 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Another drop in UK net migration in 2026 may cause labour shortages, says No 10 adviser
UK net migration is expected to fall to 200,000 in 2026 with possible resulting labour shortages in the hospitality and retail sectors, an independent adviser to the government has said. Prof Brian Bell, the chair of the migration advisory committee, said the figure was then predicted to rise again to just below 300,000 in the medium term. The prediction will be welcomed by No 10 after Keir Starmer pledged to cut net migration 'significantly' over the next four years. Successive governments have tried unsuccessfully to reduce net migration, which is the number of people coming to the UK minus the number leaving. Net migration climbed to a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and last year it was 728,000. The current provisional estimate in the year to December 2024 is 431,000. Bell said the figure should drop again next year before rising a little the following year. 'There was a very big fall in that migration, with the most recent statistics where we're down to about 430,000. And I think the expectation is that fall will continue with the visa issuance numbers. 'I think we might well see figures of net migration at 200,000 in the next year or so,' he said. 'In the medium term, we will revert towards about 300,000 although I think probably a little lower given the white papers recent changes,' he said. The restaurant, shops and hotels sectors could struggle to recruit staff from abroad over the next few years, he said. 'I think you'd see hospitality suffering, retail as well,' he said. Bell was speaking to reporters at the launch of the committee's latest report on family visas. The report suggested scrapping a Tory plan to raise the minimum income threshold for family visas to £38,700, saying it would conflict with human rights laws. Ministers could cut the amount a British citizen or settled resident must earn to apply for a partner's visa but that would result in a rise in net migration, the report said. The committee outlined different options, including a threshold of £24,000 to £28,000 which could give more priority to economic wellbeing, such as by reducing the burden to taxpayers, than to family life. It suggested a threshold of £23,000 to £25,000 could ensure that families were able to support themselves without necessarily requiring them to earn a salary above the minimum wage. The committee said lowering the amount to £24,000 could mean an increase of about 1-3% of projected future net migration. Starmer declined to set a specific net migration target in May but unveiled plans to ban recruitment of care workers from overseas, tighten access to skilled worker visas and raise the costs to employers in an effort to curb near record net migration. Bell said there could be some problems filling vacancies in social care from abroad. 'On social care, you will some restrictions [on recruiting from abroad]. It's important to remember that the government's policy is that from the as soon as the immigration changes are made legislatively, care companies will not be allowed to bring in new workers from abroad on the [health and care worker] visa, but they will be able to recruit people already in the UK,' he said.
Reuters
14-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Japan economic panel urges $400 billion investment to boost SME productivity
TOKYO, May 14 (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's economic advisory panel recommended investment of $400 billion to boost productivity at smaller firms, a crucial segment in the government's quest to achieve wage growth well in excess of inflation. The panel, tasked to compile key economic policies for the government, presented a five-year plan at its meeting on Wednesday outlining steps to help small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) raise wages. SMEs, which employ 70% of Japan's workforce, have been struggling to consistently increase pay as they are already spending more of their profits on wages than their bigger counterparts. Pay hikes are seen as pivotal to retaining and attracting talent, particularly for SMEs, in the face of severe labour shortages. The five-year plan sets the goal of stably achieving real wage increases of 1% higher than inflation, a bullish target given Japan's inflation-adjusted real wages have struggled to sustainably turn positive for decades. The specific steps include public and private-sector investment of 60 trillion yen ($407.86 billion) over the next five years to allow SMEs to digitise or automate operations, as well as beefing up support to foster mergers and acquisitions. The panel also suggested strengthening regulatory scrutiny over business practices typically targeted at larger firms' tendency to pressure their suppliers not to raise prices. The panel's proposals will be included in the annual policy guidelines to be released around June. The panel was launched by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in 2021 to formulate a strategy to tackle wealth disparities and redistribute wealth to households in a "new capitalism" programme. Ishiba has upheld his predecessor's new capitalism policy drive, focusing on getting the economy to fully shake off the deflation mindset that has hobbled it since the 1990s. ($1 = 147.1100 yen)
The Independent
13-05-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Starmer faces criticism over immigration plans
The Prime Minister faces criticism from multiple quarters after unveiling his Government's plan to cut net migration on Monday. The plans, which are expected to reduce the number of people coming to the UK by up to 100,000 per year, include reforming work and study visas and requiring a higher level of English across all immigration routes. But Monday's proposals sparked concern from employers, particularly in the care sector, following the announcement that care worker visas would be scrapped. GMB national officer Will Dalton said the decision would be 'potentially catastrophic' as the care sector was 'utterly reliant on migrant workers' and still had more than 130,000 vacancies across the country. The Home Office believes there are 40,000 potential members of staff originally brought over by 'rogue' providers who could work in the sector while UK staff are trained up. More broadly, CBI chief executive Rain Newton-Smith warned that labour shortages 'can't be solved by training alone' in the context of a shrinking workforce and an ageing population. She also cautioned that changes that 'risk making the UK a less attractive place to study' or increased costs for universities 'will have knock-on impacts for the competitive strength of UK higher education'. In the Commons, Sir Keir Starmer's announcement has also drawn attacks from across the political spectrum. Labour backbenchers criticised the language Sir Keir used to announce the plans, particularly his claim that Britain could become an 'island of strangers' without reform of the immigration system. Sheffield Hallam MP Olivia Blake suggested the phrase could 'risk legitimising the same far-right violence we saw in last year's summer riots', while former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who lost the Labour whip last year, accused Sir Keir of 'reflecting the language' of Enoch Powell's infamous 'rivers of blood' speech in the 1960s. Skills minister Baroness Jacqui Smith rejected the comparison, telling BBC Newsnight it was 'wrong'. Meanwhile, other parties argued the Prime Minister's proposals did not go far enough. Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the Immigration White Paper was 'so weak that it barely scratches the surface' as he pushed for a 'binding annual cap on migration' and disapplying the Human Rights Act from immigration law. Nigel Farage, whose Reform UK has focused heavily on immigration in its campaigns, said the Government 'will not do what it takes to control our borders'. The Liberal Democrats offered some qualified support, with the party's home affairs spokeswoman Lisa Smart saying it was 'right that the Government is taking steps to fix our broken immigration system'. But she added that the proposals 'must be coupled with a clear plan to make it easier to recruit British workers to fill vacancies instead'.
