Another drop in UK net migration in 2026 may cause labour shortages, says No 10 adviser

The Guardian

21 hours ago

UK net migration is expected to fall to 200,000 in 2026 with possible resulting labour shortages in the hospitality and retail sectors, an independent adviser to the government has said.
Prof Brian Bell, the chair of the migration advisory committee, said the figure was then predicted to rise again to just below 300,000 in the medium term.
The prediction will be welcomed by No 10 after Keir Starmer pledged to cut net migration 'significantly' over the next four years.
Successive governments have tried unsuccessfully to reduce net migration, which is the number of people coming to the UK minus the number leaving.
Net migration climbed to a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and last year it was 728,000. The current provisional estimate in the year to December 2024 is 431,000.
Bell said the figure should drop again next year before rising a little the following year.
'There was a very big fall in that migration, with the most recent statistics where we're down to about 430,000. And I think the expectation is that fall will continue with the visa issuance numbers.
'I think we might well see figures of net migration at 200,000 in the next year or so,' he said.
'In the medium term, we will revert towards about 300,000 although I think probably a little lower given the white papers recent changes,' he said.
The restaurant, shops and hotels sectors could struggle to recruit staff from abroad over the next few years, he said.
'I think you'd see hospitality suffering, retail as well,' he said.
Bell was speaking to reporters at the launch of the committee's latest report on family visas.
The report suggested scrapping a Tory plan to raise the minimum income threshold for family visas to £38,700, saying it would conflict with human rights laws.
Ministers could cut the amount a British citizen or settled resident must earn to apply for a partner's visa but that would result in a rise in net migration, the report said.
The committee outlined different options, including a threshold of £24,000 to £28,000 which could give more priority to economic wellbeing, such as by reducing the burden to taxpayers, than to family life.
It suggested a threshold of £23,000 to £25,000 could ensure that families were able to support themselves without necessarily requiring them to earn a salary above the minimum wage.
The committee said lowering the amount to £24,000 could mean an increase of about 1-3% of projected future net migration.
Starmer declined to set a specific net migration target in May but unveiled plans to ban recruitment of care workers from overseas, tighten access to skilled worker visas and raise the costs to employers in an effort to curb near record net migration.
Bell said there could be some problems filling vacancies in social care from abroad. 'On social care, you will some restrictions [on recruiting from abroad]. It's important to remember that the government's policy is that from the as soon as the immigration changes are made legislatively, care companies will not be allowed to bring in new workers from abroad on the [health and care worker] visa, but they will be able to recruit people already in the UK,' he said.