Latest news with #BrianBell
The Sun
3 hours ago
- Business
- The Sun
Britain will still take in 300k migrants a year even AFTER crackdown, Government adviser reveals
BRITAIN will keep taking in nearly 300,000 people a year even after sweeping crackdowns on immigration, a Government adviser said. Prof Brian Bell said net migration will fall from 430,000 to around 200,000 next year, but is likely to bounce back to just below 300,000 in the long term. That's the equivalent of adding a city the size of Nottingham to the UK population every single year. The chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) blamed the drop on falling job vacancies and tough new rules from both the Tories and Labour. He said it could fall lower depending on the impact of Labour's proposed reforms to tighten work visa rules. Sir Keir Starmer's White Paper plans to restrict visas to graduate-level jobs, block the overseas recruitment of foreign care workers, and raise English language requirements. He said: 'I think we'll revert to about 300,000, although probably a little lower given the White Paper's recent changes which, if enacted, will reduce net migration by perhaps about 80,000. 'So somewhere just below 300,000 would seem like a plausible medium-term scenario.' His committee also sounded the alarm over plans to raise the salary required to bring a foreign spouse to Britain from £29,000 to £38,700. He warned the move will likely .
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Net migration set to plummet to pre-Brexit levels
Net migration is set to plummet to pre-Brexit levels in the next year, the Government's chief immigration adviser has said. Prof Brian Bell, the chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), claimed that falling job vacancies and an increase on the restrictions for foreign workers and students were likely to push net migration down from its current figure of 430,000 to 200,000 within a year. That would return it to the pre-Brexit net migration average of between 200,000 and 250,000 before Boris Johnson became prime minister and opened up work and student visas. Prof Bell's claim would mean net migration would fall to a quarter of its record peak of 906,000 in the year ending June 2023. However, he warned that it would probably result in staff shortages in hospitality and retail, including chefs, waiters and shopworkers, which will be excluded from the list of highly-skilled or shortage occupations to benefit from overseas recruitment. Sir Keir Starmer's White Paper has proposed that some 180 occupations will no longer be eligible to recruit overseas. Migrants will only be able to obtain a job if the position is graduate-level or above in an attempt to end low-paid migration. 'Foreign workers will be limited to occupations that are crucial for the industrial strategy or for the missions of the Government. Key sectors that will not be eligible therefore are, for example, hospitality,' said Prof Bell. 'So we've seen over the last few years that, for example, chefs, there's quite been quite a lot of visas issued for chefs. That will cease once that sector is removed from eligibility, and it won't be added back in because it's not part of the industrial strategy. 'You would see hospitality suffering. Retail will be unlikely to access it, whereas advanced manufacturing and life sciences will still have access, partly because they're more likely to be graduate jobs anyway and so remain eligible.' Labour's efforts to reduce net migration follows restrictions introduced at the start of last year by the Conservatives to bar foreign workers and students from bringing in their dependants and the introduction of higher salary thresholds for migrants seeking skilled jobs in the UK. Prof Bell said the Tories' measures, combined with a slump in vacancies, would cause net migration to fall further than had been expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility. 'I think it's possible that we'll get down to more like the 200,000 mark,' he said. Official data published on Tuesday showed that the number of available jobs fell by 63,000 between March and May to 736,000 vacancies as companies held back on hiring and replacing workers who left. However, he forecast that as the economy grew net migration would revert to between 250,000 and 300,000. It could fall lower depending on the impact of the White Paper plans to require foreign skilled workers to be graduates, ban the overseas recruitment of foreign care workers and raise English language standards. 'I think we'll revert to about 300,000 although probably a little lower given the White Paper's recent changes which, if enacted, will reduce net migration by perhaps about 80,000 at the average. So somewhere just below 300,000 would seem like a plausible medium-term scenario,' said Prof Bell. His comments came as he launched a report by the MAC which warned that a proposed reduction in family visas aimed at reducing net migration risked breaching human rights law. The MAC said that raising the annual salary threshold required for a Briton to bring their foreign partner or spouse to the UK from its current £29,000 to £38,700 is 'most likely' to conflict with rules ensuring rights to a family life under the European Convention on Human Rights. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Family visa income threshold should be lower, review says
The minimum income threshold for family visas should be relaxed, a government-commissioned review has recommended. A report by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has suggested a reduction from the current level of £29,000. It warned against previous proposals to raise the threshold to the same level as for skilled workers - £38,700 a year - saying it could breach the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). The Conservatives said that the UK should leave the ECHR if it "stops us from setting our own visa rules". Article 8 of the ECHR enshrines the right to family life. The threshold is the minimum income a British citizen or settled resident must earn to bring their partner to join them in the UK. If the partner is already in the UK on a valid visa, their income also counts towards the minimum figure. Most applications are made by people not already living in the UK. The MAC suggested a range of possible new thresholds. It said a level between £23,000 to £25,000 would enable families to support themselves. A threshold of between £24,000 to £28,000 meanwhile would put more emphasis on economic wellbeing - both of the families themselves and for taxpayers. It said it did "not understand the rationale" for setting the family visa threshold at the £38,700 level for skilled workers, as the two visas have "completely different objective[s]". A £38,700 level would be the "most likely to conflict with international law and obligations". It is the government's decision whether to accept any of the MAC's recommendations. Prof Brian Bell, chairman of the MAC, said that balancing family life and economic wellbeing was a "real trade-off". "There is a cost to the UK economy and UK taxpayers of having this route, and we should just be honest about that and say there is a trade-off," he said. "But similarly, on the other side, people who say 'we should set it at very high numbers to make sure that we don't lose any money' ignore the massive impact that has on families and the destruction of some relationships and the harm it causes to children." A higher threshold would also have a "negative impact on the family life of a larger number of people", the MAC said. It noted many families with lower incomes still earn enough to support themselves even if they do not make a net positive fiscal impact on the country. It said an adult would need to earn £27,800 to have a neutral impact on the public finances - and £40,400 for a couple to have no impact in the first year a spouse arrived in the UK. The MAC did not recommend a higher threshold for families with children, saying the impacts on family life for them would be "particularly significant". Net migration halved in 2024 to 431,000, ONS says Home Office rows back on family visa salary level How many people come to work and study in the UK? In 2023 the previous Conservative government announced plans to raise the salary threshold to £38,700, as part of plans to cut the level of migration. But they backed down following criticism that this would keep families apart, settling on a £29,000 threshold with plans to gradually increase it later. Labour did not implement those further rises when the party came into government and asked the MAC to review the threshold. The committee said the threshold of £29,000 was already high compared to other high-income countries it had looked at. The MAC said it "was not possible to predict with any confidence" the impact different thresholds would have on the level of net migration - the difference between those entering and leaving the country. It did suggest lowering the threshold from £29,000 to roughly £24,000 may increase net migration by up to 8,000 people. Net migration in 2024 was an estimated 431,000 people, down almost 50% on the previous year. This followed record high levels in recent years, with the government under political pressure to get numbers down further. The MAC also criticised the Home Office for its data collection, saying insufficient data "greatly hindered" their review. A Home Office spokesperson said the government was considering the review's findings and would respond in due course. Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp said migration figures remain too high and that the government "must urgently re-instate the Conservative plan to further increase the salary threshold". "If the ECHR stops us from setting our own visa rules, from deporting foreign criminals or from putting Britain's interests first, then we should leave the ECHR," he said. The ECHR, which was established in 1950, sets out the rights and freedoms people are entitled to in the 46 signatory countries and is a central part of UK human rights law. Last month, the government said it would bring forward legislation to clarify how aspects of the ECHR should apply in immigration cases.
The Guardian
13 hours ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Another drop in UK net migration in 2026 may cause labour shortages, says No 10 adviser
UK net migration is expected to fall to 200,000 in 2026 with possible resulting labour shortages in the hospitality and retail sectors, an independent adviser to the government has said. Prof Brian Bell, the chair of the migration advisory committee, said the figure was then predicted to rise again to just below 300,000 in the medium term. The prediction will be welcomed by No 10 after Keir Starmer pledged to cut net migration 'significantly' over the next four years. Successive governments have tried unsuccessfully to reduce net migration, which is the number of people coming to the UK minus the number leaving. Net migration climbed to a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and last year it was 728,000. The current provisional estimate in the year to December 2024 is 431,000. Bell said the figure should drop again next year before rising a little the following year. 'There was a very big fall in that migration, with the most recent statistics where we're down to about 430,000. And I think the expectation is that fall will continue with the visa issuance numbers. 'I think we might well see figures of net migration at 200,000 in the next year or so,' he said. 'In the medium term, we will revert towards about 300,000 although I think probably a little lower given the white papers recent changes,' he said. The restaurant, shops and hotels sectors could struggle to recruit staff from abroad over the next few years, he said. 'I think you'd see hospitality suffering, retail as well,' he said. Bell was speaking to reporters at the launch of the committee's latest report on family visas. The report suggested scrapping a Tory plan to raise the minimum income threshold for family visas to £38,700, saying it would conflict with human rights laws. Ministers could cut the amount a British citizen or settled resident must earn to apply for a partner's visa but that would result in a rise in net migration, the report said. The committee outlined different options, including a threshold of £24,000 to £28,000 which could give more priority to economic wellbeing, such as by reducing the burden to taxpayers, than to family life. It suggested a threshold of £23,000 to £25,000 could ensure that families were able to support themselves without necessarily requiring them to earn a salary above the minimum wage. The committee said lowering the amount to £24,000 could mean an increase of about 1-3% of projected future net migration. Starmer declined to set a specific net migration target in May but unveiled plans to ban recruitment of care workers from overseas, tighten access to skilled worker visas and raise the costs to employers in an effort to curb near record net migration. Bell said there could be some problems filling vacancies in social care from abroad. 'On social care, you will some restrictions [on recruiting from abroad]. It's important to remember that the government's policy is that from the as soon as the immigration changes are made legislatively, care companies will not be allowed to bring in new workers from abroad on the [health and care worker] visa, but they will be able to recruit people already in the UK,' he said.
Telegraph
13 hours ago
- Business
- Telegraph
Net migration set to plummet to pre-Brexit levels
Net migration is set to plummet to pre-Brexit levels in the next year, the Government's chief immigration adviser has said. Prof Brian Bell, the chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), claimed that falling job vacancies and increase on the restrictions for foreign workers and students were likely to push net migration down from its current figure of 430,000 to 200,000 within a year. That would return it to the pre-Brexit net migration average of between 200,000 and 250,000 before Boris Johnson became prime minister and opened up work and student visas. Prof Bell's claim would mean net migration would fall to a quarter of its record peak of 906,000 in the year ending June 2023. However, he warned that it would probably result in staff shortages in hospitality and retail, including chefs, waiters and shopworkers, which will be excluded from the list of highly-skilled or shortage occupations to benefit from overseas recruitment. Sir Keir Starmer's white paper has proposed that some 180 occupations will no longer be ineligible to recruit overseas. Migrants will only be able to obtain a job if the position is graduate-level or above in an attempt to end low-paid migration. 'Foreign workers will be limited to occupations that are crucial for the industrial strategy or for the missions of the Government. Key sectors that will not be eligible therefore are, for example, hospitality,' said Prof Bell. 'So we've seen over the last few years that, for example, chefs, there's quite been quite a lot of visas issued for chefs. That will cease once that sector is removed from eligibility, and it won't be added back in because it's not part of the industrial strategy. 'You would see hospitality suffering. Retail will be unlikely to access it, whereas advanced manufacturing and life sciences will still have access, partly because they're more likely to be graduate jobs anyway and so remain eligible.' Slump in vacancies Labour's efforts to reduce net migration follows restrictions introduced at the start of last year by the Conservatives to bar foreign workers and students from bringing in their dependants and the introduction of higher salary thresholds for migrants seeking skilled jobs in the UK. Prof Bell said the Tories' measures, combined with a slump in vacancies, would cause net migration to fall further than had been expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). 'I think it's possible that we'll get down to more like the 200,000 mark,' he said. Official data published on Tuesday showed that the number of available jobs fell by 63,000 between March and May to 736,000 vacancies as companies held back on hiring and replacing workers who left. However, he forecast that as the economy grew net migration would revert to between 250,000 and 300,000. It could fall lower depending on the impact of the white paper plans to require foreign skilled workers to be graduates, ban the overseas recruitment of foreign care workers and raise English language standards. 'I think we'll revert to about 300,000 although probably a little lower given the white paper's recent changes which, if enacted, will reduce net migration by perhaps about 80,000 at the average. So somewhere just below 300,000 would seem like a plausible medium-term scenario,' said Prof Bell.
