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Mail & Guardian
a day ago
- Business
- Mail & Guardian
Early 2025-26 production prospects signal an ample global grain and oilseed harvest
The data released by Statistics South Africa showed that agricultural gross value added expanded by 15,8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2025. On 12 June, the United States department of agriculture released an update to its monthly For example, the department forecasts 2025-26 global wheat production at a record 808 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season. This is based on the expectation of an ample harvest in the European Union, Russia, Canada, Argentina, the United Kingdom and India, among other key producing countries. With that said, consumption is also expected to remain strong, mainly because of the rising demand for food, feed and industrial use in various countries. Thus, the stocks may remain slightly tight, estimated at 262 million tonnes, down 0.5% from the previous season. Still, wheat prices have come under pressure in recent months and could remain at relatively lower levels for some time. Moreover, the department forecasts a 2025-26 global maize harvest of 1.3 billion tonnes, up 3% from the previous season. There are expected ample harvests across most major producing countries, mainly the US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, China, European Union, India and Russia. But industrial use, feed, and food consumption are also set to increase, thus pushing stock levels down by 3% to an estimated 275 million tonnes. This means that although global maize production has increased, the price levels of maize may remain stable or possibly rise slightly due to robust demand. The department forecasts global rice production for 2025-26 at 542 million tonnes, a 0.1% increase from the previous season. There are expected large harvests in various Asian major producing countries that support this decent harvest, primarily India, Vietnam, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh and the Philippines. Importantly, with consumption expected to remain stable, maize stocks increased by 0.3% from the previous season to 188 million tonnes. Also worth noting is that the 2025-26 global soybean production is forecast at 426 million tonnes, a 1% increase from the previous season. There are expected to be decent supplies in South America, China, India, Ukraine and the US, among others. Although global soybean consumption is expected to remain strong, stocks will still be decent. The 2025-26 global soybean stocks are forecast at 124 million tonnes, a 1% increase from the previous season. Importantly, these optimistic production prospects depend on the Southern Hemisphere season, which begins in October. In the Northern Hemisphere, the planting season is under way and looking favourable in most regions. But, for the Southern Hemisphere, it will be a few months before we have some level of comfort regarding the agricultural conditions, and the weather outlook in key producing areas of South America will be a primary focus, among other things. Still, these preliminary estimates indicate a substantial grain and oilseed harvest for the 2025-26 season. Wandile Sihlobo is an agricultural economist.
Zawya
4 days ago
- General
- Zawya
Uganda's post-harvest losses: Reaping the rewards of better storage
For many years, Julius Kabole, a maize and rice farmer with Yetana Farmers Group in Kibiniko, Mbale, eastern Uganda, has watched his hard-earned harvests disappear before his eyes. The pain in his voice is unmistakable as he recalls seasons of devastating loss.'Last year, I harvested 900 kilogrammes of maize, but, by March, I was left with just about 400kg. Watching all that hard work go to waste was painful. I didn't know the problem was how I was storing it—pests had attacked the grain,' Kabole says, as he displays a handful of damaged maize—grains eaten through, full of holes and dust.'I not only lost the quantity, but what remained was also difficult to sell,' he adds. His struggle with post-harvest handling begins right after harvest.'Threshing by beating with sticks not only damages my grains and reduces their value, but it is also very labour-intensive and takes a lot of time,' he says. The lack of proper threshing facilities has meant relying on outdated, manual methods that harm his harvest. Beating rice and maize with sticks causes grain breakage and contamination, which lowers the quality and market value of his produce. Kabole's experience mirrors a crisis facing many farmers across Uganda. They spend months tending their crops, but after harvest, much of the food is lost to pests, poor storage, and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns linked to climate change. The numbers tell a sobering story that resonates through many farmers in Uganda.'We did a survey and realised that a farmer loses 20 percent to 30 percent of their produce before it reaches the market,' says Alex Ewinyu, technical assistant at Kilimo Trust.'That's about three bags out of ten—lost through spillage during transportation or threshing, poor drying, and contamination. One of the biggest threats is aflatoxin, a toxic mould that develops when grains are stored with high moisture content in poorly ventilated conditions.'Wasted food, incomeThese figures echo global patterns. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimates that one-third of all food produced worldwide is lost or wasted. In Uganda alone, FAO estimates that more than 17.6 percent of grains—including maize, millet, and rice—are lost annually due to poor post-harvest handling, translating to nearly 2.8 million metric tonnes of wasted food and income. Uganda is a key grain exporter in the region. In 2023, it exported over 310 million kilogrammes of maize—worth around $89 million—primarily to Kenya, Rwanda, and South Sudan, but this trade remains vulnerable. Aflatoxin contamination and poor-quality standards have led to rejections and even temporary bans from importing countries, threatening not only livelihoods but also Uganda's reputation in the regional market. The challenge is compounded by limited infrastructure and climate variability. Most small-scale farmers still store their grain in rudimentary shelters or in sacks on the floor, exposing their harvests to pests, moisture, and rot. Changing rainfall patterns make proper drying increasingly difficult, particularly affecting women farmers who often bear primary responsibility for post-harvest processing. Hellen's nightmareIn the rolling hills of Kween District, Hellen Cheptegei faces her own version of this universal struggle. She farms four acres of maize annually and harvests about 100 bags that she sells to traders at around Ush80,000 ($22) for each 100kg bag.'Too much rain during harvest time is a nightmare,' Hellen says, her voice reflecting years of frustration. 'We only get a few hours to dry our maize.'Her challenges compound with each season.'Before, as farmers, we used to dry our grains in the farm, and even after harvest, we'd store them in places that lacked ventilation. It was a constant struggle,' she recounts. Poor drying practices don't just reduce the quantity—they affect price.'Some traders would even force us to part with about 10kg per bag for them to accept our grains, just because they weren't dry enough.'Recognition of this widespread crisis has sparked a comprehensive response through the Eamiat project—Enhanced Access to Markets for Inclusive Agricultural Transformation. Funded by AGRA and implemented by Kilimo Trust, the initiative spans eastern Uganda's Busoga, Bugisu, and Sebei subregions, working with more than 100 farmer cooperatives and organisations. The project's approach addresses the interconnected nature of post-harvest challenges.'Our intervention focuses on two key priorities: first, equipping farmers with the knowledge of proper post-harvest practices; and second, ensuring they can access the right technologies and materials to reduce quality losses,' Ewinyu explains.'We are linking farmers to essential post-harvest equipment—like shellers to minimize grain breakage and contamination, and tarpaulins to dry produce safely off the ground. We also promote the use of hermetic storage bags, which create an airtight environment that suffocates pests and prevents moisture absorption, allowing farmers to store grain longer without spoilage and enabling them to fetch better prices in the market.'Adoption barriersHowever, adoption faces significant barriers. Hermetic bags, which are proven to reduce spoilage by up to 98 percent, remain out of reach for many farmers due to an 18 percent Value Added Tax that significantly inflates their cost. A typical hermetic bag costs about Ush9,500 ($2.60) in Uganda—a substantial investment for smallholder farmers earning less than $2 per day. This policy barrier effectively prevents the very farmers who need these technologies most from accessing them, undermining food security and income generation efforts. The training is complemented by a market-focused approach that connects farmers and cooperatives with major grain buyers both within Uganda and in neighbouring countries like Kenya.'By empowering both farmers and cooperatives, we want to ensure the quality of grain is sustained right from the farmer to the market,' says Ewinyu. 'If cooperatives and farmers can guarantee good quality grain, the off-takers will guarantee a ready market and premium prices as part of the grain trade agreements.'The transformation is most evident at the cooperative level, where individual gains combine to create collective market power. Co-operatives' edgeBogere Hakim, manager of Bukawa Area Cooperative Enterprise in Nakigo sub-county, Iganga District, leads a cooperative that serves 1,506 individual farmer members through 11 primary societies.'In this bulking arrangement of putting our produce together and marketing for farmers, we used to struggle a lot to meet the quality standards expected by the buyers,' Hakim explains.'One of our main clients in Tororo has a testing lab where they test the produce before buying. If there's any aflatoxin, it gets rejected—making it costly to transport it back and find another buyer.'That rejection marked a major turning point for the cooperative. It now relies on trained community-based agents—farmer leaders who receive specialised training and equipment to work directly with members on quality control. Read: EAC sounds death knell to aflatoxin with proposed uniform testing kitAgents now use moisture meters to test grain before aggregation, ensuring only properly dried produce enters the cooperative's bulk sales. The cooperative has also made aflatoxin control a priority right from the farm level, adopting East African Standards to guarantee that their maize, beans, and rice meet regional quality benchmarks. Last year alone, they marketed 642 metric tonnes of maize, 42 metric tonnes of rice, and 66 metric tonnes of beans.'Now that we have the knowledge, it means we're going to increase our sales volumes because every buyer will want to buy from us. Previously, they were just buying any grain—not graded—but now we're grading the grains right from the farm level,' Hakim observes.'Real progress'The success of cooperatives like Bukawa reflects broader systemic changes supported by government agricultural officers. Rose Nabirye, District Agricultural Officer for Mbale District, emphasises the importance of strategic partnerships in scaling these improvements.'With support from Kilimo Trust, we're seeing real progress in post-harvest handling. Farmers are learning how to dry and store properly, reduce aflatoxin risks, and work in groups to bulk and access markets,' she explains.'These steps are helping them protect their harvests and increase their income. When farmers store better and sell together, they not only reduce losses but also attract better buyers and prices.'Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Uganda's economy—contributing 24 percent to the national GDP, employing 70 percent of the workforce, and generating 42 percent of export earnings, according to the latest statistics. But sustaining this momentum will require more than just good harvests. Tackling policy hurdles, such as the VAT on essential storage technologies, and investing in rural infrastructure to support proper grain handling are critical next steps. As climate change continues to disrupt traditional farming cycles, Uganda's role as a regional grain supplier will hinge on how swiftly these post-harvest solutions can reach the millions of small-scale farmers who feed the nation. © Copyright 2022 Nation Media Group. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Mail & Guardian
26-05-2025
- Business
- Mail & Guardian
Zambia maize production bounces back
Crops are likely to improve in the Southern Africa region after the 2024 drought broke. In the summer of 2024, Zambia, a country reliant on minimal maize imports for nearly two decades, was in a tricky position. Like many countries in Southern Africa, it was hit by the mid-summer drought. Zambia had planted its usual maize area of The season started with relatively small opening stocks of just under half a million tonnes, and the expected harvest was about a million tonnes. This volume would not meet Zambia's annual maize needs of Zambia was not alone and was not the worst-affected country in the region by the mid-summer drought of 2024. Zimbabwe lost roughly Because of its improved seed cultivars, South Africa saw a much better path. The drought led to a 22% decline in maize harvest to 12.85 million tonnes, which meant South Africa was among the few countries that had to supply maize to the region. Another positive aspect is that South Africa had large opening stocks of over two million tonnes, which added to the 12.85 million tonnes. This placed the country in a better position to supply the region and cushion it from a food crisis. But we are now far from this reality. Zambia's 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest The harvest is under way in the country, and the message we are hearing about the quality of the crop remains encouraging. This also means Zambia could return to being a net exporter of maize because its domestic maize consumption is about 2.8 million tonnes, far surpassed by the expected harvest of 3.66 million tonnes. Importantly, one can expect the domestic maize prices to continue moderating as the harvest continues, thus easing the general food price inflation. Zambia is also not the only fortunate country in the Southern Africa region. The entire region received better rains, even excessive rains in some areas. We continue to hear encouraging news of the better grain harvest in Zimbabwe. For example, Zimbabwean farmers likely planted We will know more about the yields in the coming weeks and months. What is clear at the moment is that Zimbabwe will, too, have a better maize harvest compared to the 2023-24 drought year. The South African story is even more optimistic. For example, South Africa's 2024-25 maize harvest is forecast at 14.66 million tonnes. There is an increase in white and yellow maize, with harvests now at 7.75 million tonnes and 6.91 million tonnes, respectively. Overall, the maize harvest of 14.66 million tonnes is up 14% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from expected yield improvements on an annual basis. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa's yearly maize needs of about 11.8 million tonnes, which implies that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize. The 2024-25 season is a positive change for Southern Africa's staple crop, maize. Importantly, it is encouraging to see Zambia bounce back. This country is vital in maize supplies to the region as the second largest producer after South Africa. Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
