Early 2025-26 production prospects signal an ample global grain and oilseed harvest
The data released by Statistics South Africa showed that agricultural gross value added expanded by 15,8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2025.
On 12 June, the United States department of agriculture released an update to its monthly
For example, the department forecasts 2025-26 global wheat production at a record 808 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season. This is based on the expectation of an ample harvest in the European Union, Russia, Canada, Argentina, the United Kingdom and India, among other key producing countries.
With that said, consumption is also expected to remain strong, mainly because of the rising demand for food, feed and industrial use in various countries. Thus, the stocks may remain slightly tight, estimated at 262 million tonnes, down 0.5% from the previous season. Still, wheat prices have come under pressure in recent months and could remain at relatively lower levels for some time.
Moreover, the department forecasts a 2025-26 global maize harvest of 1.3 billion tonnes, up 3% from the previous season. There are expected ample harvests across most major producing countries, mainly the US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, China, European Union, India and Russia.
But industrial use, feed, and food consumption are also set to increase, thus pushing stock levels down by 3% to an estimated 275 million tonnes. This means that although global maize production has increased, the price levels of maize may remain stable or possibly rise slightly due to robust demand.
The department forecasts global rice production for 2025-26 at 542 million tonnes, a 0.1% increase from the previous season. There are expected large harvests in various Asian major producing countries that support this decent harvest, primarily India, Vietnam, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh and the Philippines. Importantly, with consumption expected to remain stable, maize stocks increased by 0.3% from the previous season to 188 million tonnes.
Also worth noting is that the 2025-26 global soybean production is forecast at 426 million tonnes, a 1% increase from the previous season. There are expected to be decent supplies in South America, China, India, Ukraine and the US, among others.
Although global soybean consumption is expected to remain strong, stocks will still be decent. The 2025-26 global soybean stocks are forecast at 124 million tonnes, a 1% increase from the previous season.
Importantly, these optimistic production prospects depend on the Southern Hemisphere season, which begins in October. In the Northern Hemisphere, the planting season is under way and looking favourable in most regions.
But, for the Southern Hemisphere, it will be a few months before we have some level of comfort regarding the agricultural conditions, and the weather outlook in key producing areas of South America will be a primary focus, among other things.
Still, these preliminary estimates indicate a substantial grain and oilseed harvest for the 2025-26 season.
Wandile Sihlobo is an agricultural economist.
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