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ABC News
4 days ago
- Politics
- ABC News
As Russian planes burned, Putin's military bloggers were 'choking with hurt'
Some members of Vladimir Putin's online army think Ukraine's drone attack on Russian air bases was their Pearl Harbor. Others are in denial about the damage now visible on satellite imagery. And then there are the online accounts that have been boldly outspoken and willing to question, even blame, the Russian establishment for not protecting the country's prized strategic bomber fleet. "When I watched the video of our planes burning, everything inside me was burning. I was choking with hurt," known Russian propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova posted. This group of Telegram and sometimes YouTube warriors is part of Putin's strongman mythology — often faceless and fervent. They staunchly support Russia, but are willing to point the finger at its military brass when they believe the strategy is bad and letting the forces down. They are far from a reliable source of information about Putin's war, but they post often and appear to be well sourced about the Russian apparatus — and that gives them influence online. The ones most loyal to Putin help uphold the facade he has created. Others are loyal to the motherland and its military and, as they dance around directly criticising Putin, they help him too. Vladimir Putin uses military bloggers to direct frustrations over the war towards military officials, analysts say. "The Kremlin tolerates and sometimes platforms these bloggers because their criticism is usually directed at the military or specific officials, not Putin himself," security analyst and hybrid warfare expert Ruslan Trad said. They help Putin deflect failures and, in the wake of Ukraine's drone attack inside Russia, they're busy. The bloggers' love Russia's military might. And now there are verified images of how it's been damaged and, in parts, destroyed. Ukraine says it destroyed up to 13 aircraft in the covert drone attack deep inside Russia. The United States now puts that number at 10, with up to 20 hit in the attack. Via United States President Donald Trump, Putin says retaliation is inevitable. In Russia, state-owned newspapers might have buried stories and images detailing the attack but, in the so-called "milblogger" corner of the internet, you will find pro-Russian, even pro-war critics of the men running Putin's war. Ukraine has released images purported to show drones used in the attack on Russian air bases. ( Reuters ) Telegram lights up after attack Russia's military and mercenary presence around the world was being documented online by some of these so-called "Z" accounts before Putin's war in Ukraine, but the accounts' follower lists exploded after February 2022. Telegram is the platform of choice for these warhead influencers. The app is not state-owned — it belongs to a Russian French dual citizen — so the fact the Kremlin hasn't blocked it or shut it down is notable. These accounts are permitted to be critical because Putin knows he needs to give any rumbling frustrations an outlet. "This criticism serves as a pressure release for public anger and helps the Kremlin manage elite competition within the state," Trad said. "However, when bloggers cross certain red lines — such as directly attacking Putin or threatening regime stability — they risk arrest or censorship. "The Kremlin tolerates criticism that does not undermine Putin's personal authority or the overall legitimacy of the regime, but it cracks down if bloggers become too influential or shift blame to the top." Their influence has massively grown over the course of the invasion, and with it, their access too, with them now regularly posting from the battlefield or providing first-hand accounts from soldiers. After trucks parked in not-at-all random locations across Russia exploded with first-person view drones and set aircraft covered in spare tyres on fire, Telegram lit up too. Referencing a video, which has not been verified, of men trying to stop drones as they lifted up out of a semi-trailer container, blogger Anastasia Kashevarova said: "This is truly a symbol of what is happening." "People created and built all this, and now we can't even preserve it, let alone increase it. When will this disgrace and inaction end?" For a regime that holds tight control over what the world gets to really know about it, and one that crushes signs of dissent, the commentary from military bloggers occupies a unique place in Russia's media landscape. "In general, Russian military bloggers are both amplifiers and critics of the Kremlin's war narrative," Mr Trad said. "While they are nationalist and pro-war, they often highlight failures or shortcomings in the Russian military's conduct, providing a more detailed and sometimes critical perspective than state media." Trad said the arrangement allowed Putin to use the military bloggers "as a tool to pressure or scapegoat military leaders". That pressure is now building. Aerospace forces commander-in-chief Viktor Afzalov and former defence minister Sergei Shoigu — now secretary of Russia's Security Council — are among those being publicly singled out for blame. Influential blogger Voyenkor Kotenok said Shoigu had promised as far back as April 2021 to build more than 300 reinforced concrete shelters for aircraft, but this had not happened. He also publicly rejected any excuse that the bases were deep enough inside Russia that they could have been considered safe. Ukraine was able to strike the Belaya air base more than 4,000 kilometres inside Russia, and the Olenya facility in the Arctic Circle. According to Kotenok, military officials "relied on chance". "The result is a strong slap in the face and invaluable experience for the enemy, including strategic, which will apply the results of the operation to other objects, including those related to submarine bases, chemical production and nuclear research, but they saved on shelters. How did this saving pay off?" This is a typical piece of criticism — directed at military officials, rooted in the need to protect and defend Russia's military and always with a strategic bent. "Many military bloggers are intensely focused on military hardware, strategy, and operational details. The destruction or damage of strategic bombers — a core element of Russia's nuclear triad — provokes particular outrage," Trad said. By analysing the position the aircraft were left in on the tarmacs where some were damaged, and seemingly destroyed, it's possible to see Russia's apparent attempt at decoys, rather than protective measures. Painted on the tarmac are outlines of planes, visible from satellite imagery. Trad said Ukraine's drone strike triggered an outcry among military bloggers, and that "many reacted with anger and alarm, calling the attack a 'Russian Pearl Harbor'", a description he described as an exaggeration and "rather emotional". Blogger Roman Alekhin said Moscow had underestimated Ukraine's ability to strike inside Russia and was one of the voices comparing the so-called Operation Spider's Web to Japan's attack on the US Navy at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. At Pearl Harbor in 1941, more than 2,000 members of the US military were killed and 180 American aircraft were destroyed. Then there are, of course, the accounts that are very busy posting most of the time, but when Russia suffers an obvious blow, they are subdued or downplay the damage. There is significant diversity among military bloggers. "Some are openly critical of military failures and call for accountability, while others echo the official line, downplay setbacks, or issue threats of retaliation against Ukraine and the West," Trad said. "Bloggers closely tied to state media or with government roles tend to reinforce Kremlin narratives and avoid criticising Putin. Meanwhile, independent or ultra-nationalist bloggers are often more candid about problems, though even they usually stop short of directly blaming Putin." There have been some who massively downplayed the damage inflicted by Ukraine's drone attack, but those strikes "were widely seen as exposing serious vulnerabilities in Russia's defences," Trad said. The satellite evidence Bouncing around Telegram, scattered and often buried by the criticism of Russia's military officials and threats of retaliation, are screenshots, maps and videos that both evidence what Ukraine was able to achieve and anger the online mob. Putin may have sent a threat of retaliation to Ukraine via Trump, but the Kremlin has otherwise not given the attack any oxygen. The Russian Defence Ministry issued a brief statement in which it sought to minimise the success of Ukraine's covert and long-running operation. It said Ukraine tried to strike five airfields, but was only successful at two of them. The statement did not give much more detail and did not mention any aircraft being destroyed, only that "several" caught fire. Based on its analysis, Ukrainian open-source intelligence group AviVector believes the Ukrainian attack took out 11 bombers and a transport aircraft at Russia's Olenya and Belaya airfields. Satellite images that show the wreckage of destroyed aircraft at the two airfields appear to back that up. Damage at Olenya: Damage at Belaya: As open-source experts pore over the available details, Ukraine has released new footage of its drones striking the Russian aircraft. The new video, which has been verified by Reuters, shows a series of Ukrainian drones buzzing down to explode near aircraft that were sitting in the open. As more details emerge of what went into Operation Spider's Web and Ukraine's publicity machine makes the most of this moment, the criticism from Russia's military bloggers is gathering pace. They're accusing military leadership of negligence, complacency, and corruption, and questioning how such valuable assets were left exposed. As has been the case historically, despite the evidence of Russia's losses, this criticism may be allowed to continue as long as it does not turn towards President Vladimir Putin.
Reuters
4 days ago
- Politics
- Reuters
Russia faces struggle to replace bombers lost in Ukrainian drone strikes
LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Russia will take years to replace nuclear-capable bomber planes that were hit in Ukrainian drone strikes last weekend, according to Western military aviation experts, straining a modernisation programme that is already delayed. Satellite photos of airfields in Siberia and Russia's far north show extensive damage from the attacks, with several aircraft completely burnt out, although there are conflicting versions of the total number destroyed or damaged. The United States assesses that up to 20 warplanes were hit - around half the number estimated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy - and around 10 were destroyed, two U.S. officials told Reuters. The Russian government on Thursday denied that any planes were destroyed and said the damage would be repaired, but Russian military bloggers have spoken of loss or serious damage to about a dozen planes, accusing commanders of negligence. The strikes - prepared over 18 months in a Ukrainian intelligence operation dubbed "Spider's Web", and conducted by drones that were smuggled close to the bases in trucks - dealt a powerful symbolic blow to a country that, throughout the Ukraine war, has frequently reminded the world of its nuclear might. In practice, experts said, they will not seriously affect Russia's nuclear strike capability which is largely comprised of ground- and submarine-based missiles. However, the Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers that were hit were part of a long-range aviation fleet that Russia has used throughout the war to fire conventional missiles at Ukrainian cities, defence plants, military bases, power infrastructure and other targets, said Justin Bronk, an aviation expert at the RUSI think tank in London. The same fleet had also been carrying out periodic patrol flights into the Arctic, North Atlantic and northern Pacific as a show of strength to deter Russia's Western adversaries. Bronk said that at the outset of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia was operating a fleet of 50-60 Bear-Hs and around 60 Backfires, alongside around 20 Tu-160M nuclear-capable Blackjack heavy bombers. He estimated that Russia has now lost more than 10% of the combined Bear-H and Backfire fleet, taking into account last weekend's attacks and the loss of several planes earlier in the war - one shot down and the others struck while on the ground. These losses "will put major pressure on a key Russian force that was already operating at maximum capacity," Bronk told Reuters. Russia's defence ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Replacing the planes will be challenging. Both the Bear H and the Backfire are aircraft that were designed in the Soviet era and have been out of production for decades, said Douglas Barrie, aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, although existing planes have been upgraded over the years. Barrie said that building new ones like-for-like was therefore very unlikely, and it was unclear whether Russia had any useable spare airframes of either type. Western sanctions against Russia have aimed to restrict the import of components such as microprocessors that are vital to avionics systems, although Moscow has so far been comparatively successful at finding alternative sources, Barrie added. Russia has been modernising its Blackjack bomber fleet, and Putin sent a pointed signal to the West last year by taking a 30-minute flight in one such aircraft and pronouncing it ready for service. But production of new Blackjacks is slow - one Russian military blogger this week put it at four per year - and Western experts say progress in developing Russia's next-generation PAK DA bomber has also been moving at a crawl. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) said in a report, opens new tab last month that Russia had signed a contract with manufacturer Tupolev in 2013 to build the PAK DA, but cited Russian media reports as saying state test flights are not scheduled until next year, with initial production to begin in 2027. While it would be logical for Russia to try to speed up its PAK DA plans, it may not have the capacity, said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the FAS. He said in a telephone interview that Russia is facing delays with a range of other big defence projects including its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. RUSI's Bronk was also sceptical of Moscow's chances of accelerating the timeline for the next-generation bomber. "Russia will struggle to deliver the PAK DA programme at all in the coming five years, let alone accelerate it, due to budgetary shortfalls and materials and technology constraints on industry due to sanctions," he said.
