Latest news with #monetaryeasing
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Soaring Czech Home Prices Spell End to Easing, Policymaker Says
Czech interest-rate cuts are 'almost certainly' over for now as the central bank tackles inflation risks from soaring property prices, consumer spending and an improving economic outlook, a senior policymaker said. After a rapid pace of monetary easing last year, rate setters at the Czech National Bank have applied a stop-and-go approach since December. Market bets are predicting a hold on the benchmark rate at 3.5% on Aug. 7, but some analysts still see room for easing in the months ahead.
Reuters
24-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Turkish cenbank returns to easing with big 300-point rate cut
ISTANBUL, July 24 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank cut interest rates by 300 basis points to 43% on Thursday, more than expected, resuming an easing cycle that had been disrupted by political turmoil earlier this year, as markets have since calmed and disinflation continued. Going forward, the central bank said it would determine the "step size" of future monetary easing "prudently" and on a meeting-to-meeting basis. It also lowered the upper band of its rate corridor to 46% from 49%. The lira currency remained stable after the decision at 40.48 to the dollar. All but one of 17 economists in a Reuters poll forecast it would cut its benchmark one-week repo rate (TRINT=ECI), opens new tab, with predictions ranging from 42.50% to 44.50% among those expecting a cut. The bank hiked the policy rate to 46% from 42.5% in April, reversing an easing cycle that had begun in December, following market volatility over the arrest in March of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is President Tayyip Erdogan's main rival. The bank said the underlying inflation trend remained flat in June and it anticipated a "temporary rise" in monthly inflation this month due to one-off factors. "Recent data indicate that the disinflationary impact of demand conditions has strengthened," the policy committee said. It will set policy "taking into account realized and expected inflation, and its underlying trend in a way to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path," it added. "The step size will be reviewed prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis with a focus on the inflation outlook". Commenting on this, Kieran Curtis, head of EM local currency debt at fund manager Aberdeen, said "It doesn't look like they will automatically do 300 bps next time." Annual inflation dipped to 35.05% in June, having fallen consistently from a peak of 75% in May last year. The bank's latest survey of market participants' expectations showed inflation was seen at 29.66% at end-2025. Most economists expect easing to continue in the months ahead, with the policy rate falling to 36% by the end of 2025, according to the Reuters poll. The tightening in recent months boosted investor confidence, with foreign holdings of lira-denominated bonds up to about 7% from near 5% after the mayor was arrested and jailed. Political risks remain on investors' radar. The lira and bonds weakened this month after the detention of opposition mayors in Adana, Adiyaman and Antalya in a corruption probe. Prosecutors say the arrests are anti-graft measures, but many see them as politically motivated moves against the opposition party CHP in a crackdown that has seen more than 500 detained in just nine months. "To establish economic confidence we need to see political tensions fading, and that has not yet happened," said Selva Demiralp, professor of economics at Koc University. "It remains the biggest risk and complicates the central bank's plan to move forward," she said, noting a Koc survey, opens new tab in July that shows opposition voters have far higher inflation expectations than those of Erdogan voters.
Free Malaysia Today
22-07-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
T Rowe favours Thailand, Malaysia bonds on scope for rate cuts
Joining a broader Asian currency rally against the US dollar, both the baht and ringgit have risen by more than 5% since the start of 2025. (Freepik pic) HONG KONG : T Rowe Price Group Inc likes local bonds in Thailand and Malaysia, betting that further monetary easing will outweigh currency gains as a key driver of investor returns. 'Malaysia's central bank has potential to deliver several more interest rate cuts after its first policy easing in five years earlier this month, while persistent deflation in Thailand should extend support for its debt despite already-low yields,' said Leonard Kwan, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at the US asset manager. Kwan, who manages the firm's emerging markets bond strategy fund, added he prefers medium-term Thai bonds and longer-dated notes in Malaysia. The fund had assets worth US$581 million as of June 30. 'Tailwinds from the dollar's weakness against the Asian currencies will be 'less powerful than what we saw year to date,' Kwan said. He expects a 'consolidative period for the dollar over the next three to six months' as bearish wagers on the greenback appear excessive. Kwan's comments signal a rethink among investors as the dollar has rebounded in the past two weeks, clawing back some of this year's steep losses as fresh inflation data cast doubts on the outlook of US rate cuts. Meanwhile, signs of strong consumption and a resilient labour market also helped ease concerns about a tariff-induced recession and a sustained decline of American exceptionalism. Despite the latest gain, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 8% this year. Joining a broader Asian currency rally against the greenback, both the Thai baht and ringgit have risen over 5% since 2025 began. The currency gains have been a key catalyst of the performance of the two nations' local-currency bonds. Thai debt has generated year-to-date total returns of 13.8% this year, with 10.2% for their Malaysian counterpart, Bloomberg data show. Elsewhere in the region, Kwan said he also likes Indonesian bonds of medium-term maturities, as the firm sees another two-to-three 25-basis-point rate cuts in Southeast Asia's biggest economy. The Indonesian rupiah, in contrast, is Asia's worst-performing currency this year, down 1.3% versus the dollar.
Reuters
17-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Gold extends decline after solid US economic data
July 17 (Reuters) - Gold prices extended declines and fell nearly 1% on Thursday after upbeat U.S. economic data aided the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on resuming monetary easing this year. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,315.15 per ounce, by 0936 a.m. EDT (1336 GMT) after hitting a session low of $3,309.59. U.S. gold futures fell 1.2% to $3,320.80. Following the latest U.S. data, "there was a bit of rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are higher. So, it's put a little weakness in the gold market," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. But, strong central bank demand, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and tariff risks could keep gold prices elevated, he added. The dollar gained 0.3%, making greenback-priced gold more expensive for foreign currency holders. Data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week, pointing to steady job growth in July. While, U.S. retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, recording an increase of 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.9% drop in May, but some of the increase likely reflected higher prices for some goods exposed to tariffs. Meanwhile, the Fed should not cut interest rates "for some time" as the impact of Trump administration tariffs begins to pass through to consumer prices, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said. Gold is known as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, but higher rates dim its appeal as it yields no interest. On the trade front, Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa held talks with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on U.S. tariffs, as Tokyo races to avert a 25% levy that will be imposed unless a deal is clinched by an August 1 deadline. Palladium added 0.1% to $1,232.02, after reaching its highest level since October 2023. Fears of an escalating war in Russia, a major palladium exporter, are fuelling supply concerns and driving prices higher, Haberkorn said. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.8% to $37.64 per ounce and platinum lost 0.6% to $1,408.30.
Bloomberg
11-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Slim: Egypt's Central Bank Cautious Over Inflation
Egypt left interest rates on hold, snapping two rounds of monetary easing, as caution about tensions in the region and the fallout from US President Donald Trump's tariffs outweighed slowing inflation. Carla Slim, Standard Chartered, MENA Economist spoke to Bloomberg's Horizons Middle East and Africa anchor Joumanna Bercetche on the rate decision as well as Oman's rating upgrade and OPEC+'s path forward with oil output. (Source: Bloomberg)
