10 hours ago
Trump is driving the Nato agenda - but he may still leave the alliance hanging when it needs the US the most
Many expected this Nato summit to be the most significant since the Cold War ended.
And as we enter the final day of the conference, it was clear they were right.
With escalating pressure in the Middle East, the looming backdrop of war in Ukraine and an increasingly volatile US president, tensions on the global stage are the highest they have been in recent history.
Britain's decision to purchase 12 new F-35A jets - to be formally announced by the prime minister at a press conference today - is a big one. Ministers dubbed it the 'biggest strengthening of the UK's nuclear posture in a generation', primarily because it restores a nuclear role for the RAF for the first time since the Cold War.
The aircraft, which the MoD estimates will cost £70-80m per jet, are expected to carry US B61 bombs - the primary thermonuclear gravity bomb in the United States Enduring Stockpile. It is a massive show of force in the face of growing questions over Britain's defensive capabilities. But, notably for Britain to use these tactical weapons, the approval of the US would need to be sought.
It's a clear win for Trump: not only is Britain massively ramping up its nuclear capabilities, it is also doing so in a way that gives the White House more influence over it.
It comes amid a backdrop of a much wider mission to win over the US president, with Nato countries increasingly bending over backwards to secure the approval of the unpredictable White House.
Nato's collective agreement to ramp up defence spending to 5 per cent – doubling its previous target of 2.5 per cent - is yet another example of this. It is a huge jump for a group of nations which are, collectively, fairly strapped for cash (and many of them, such as Spain and Portugal, already fall short of the current target).
Meanwhile, world leaders are also throwing all their soft power at winning the approval of the US president. Just yesterday, Trump shared a series of obsequious texts from Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte.
'Mr. President, dear Donald, Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran, that was truly extraordinary, and something no one else dared to do. It makes us all safer,' Rutte wrote. 'You are flying into another big success in The Hague this evening. It was not easy but we've got them all signed onto 5 per cent!
'Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe, and the world. You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done,' he added. 'Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.'
Rutte's tactics, while perhaps slightly more embarrassing now they've been revealed to the world, are not dissimilar to Sir Keir Starmer presenting the US president with a handwritten letter from the King offering him an unprecedented second state visit.
The incentive to win over the US comes from a clear understanding that Nato cannot properly function without US military muscle, which, alongside Germany, is the biggest contributor to alliance funds.
It comes after Trump's repeated threats to pull out of the alliance if it does not properly pull its weight on defence spending.
Now that Nato countries are putting real muscle behind their promises to Trump, the question over whether this will result in true commitment from the US president continues to hang over the summit.
Just yesterday, the day after Britain committed to reaching the 5 per cent target and Starmer reaffirmed his belief that Trump is a reliable ally, the US president declined to commit to Article 5 - the principle of collective defence and a key pillar of the alliance.
While he appeared to recommit to the concept the following day, saying 'we are with them all the way', his ability to shift from one position to another at a time of such global tension raises serious doubts over whether or not Nato's huge increase in its defensive capability will have any real impact when it comes to securing a solid commitment from the US.
MoD sources insisted that Britain wants to put itself in a strong position on the world stage because of the broader global situation. The UK wants to be well prepared, they said, so that even if Trump left office tomorrow, the country would still be in a strong position.
But, even so, there's no denying that this arms race is being pushed faster and faster by Trump. Rutte was clear: the US president has pushed the West to a very significant moment.
Clearly, Trump is driving the agenda at Nato. But as his volatility continues, there is an ever-present risk that the US president leaves the alliance hanging at a time when it needs the US the most.
