Latest news with #oilmarket
Zawya
18 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
Kuwait minister 'optimistic' about oil market fundamentals
DUBAI - Kuwait's oil minister said he was optimistic about the oil market's fundamentals and that OPEC+ efforts aim for market balance, the state news agency (KUNA) reported on Tuesday. Tariq Suleiman Al-Roumi's comments came after Monday's OPEC+ meeting where Al-Roumi and other ministers from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee met online for brief talks to stress the need for full compliance with oil production agreements. "(I am) optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market and that OPEC+ efforts target energy security and market balance," KUNA quoted him as saying, without giving further details. OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil, has been curtailing production for several years to support the market. But it reversed course this year to regain market share, and as U.S. President Donald Trump demanded OPEC pump more to help keep a lid on gasoline prices. Eight members began to raise output in April and have accelerated production increases since then. Their most recent decision calls for an oil output increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August. Al-Roumi said Kuwait supports efforts to maintain a stable international oil market and that OPEC+ decisions are based on market developments. Kuwait possesses some of the world's largest oil reserves and, unlike its Gulf neighbours, remains heavily dependent on oil as it makes slow progress on diversifying its sources of revenues. It ran up a budget deficit of $5.23 billion for the fiscal year 2023/24, on the back of declining oil revenues based on an oil price of $86.36 a barrel. Kuwait's draft budget for the fiscal year 2025/26, which started on April 1, sees the deficit widening to $20.43 billion as oil revenues are expected to fall 5.7% from 2024/25, based on an oil price of $68 a barrel, the country's finance ministry said in February. ($1 = 0.3055 Kuwaiti dinars)
Reuters
18 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Kuwait minister 'optimistic' about oil market fundamentals
DUBAI, July 29 (Reuters) - Kuwait's oil minister said he was optimistic about the oil market's fundamentals and that OPEC+ efforts aim for market balance, the state news agency (KUNA) reported on Tuesday. Tariq Suleiman Al-Roumi's comments came after Monday's OPEC+ meeting where Al-Roumi and other ministers from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee met online for brief talks to stress the need for full compliance with oil production agreements. "(I am) optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market and that OPEC+ efforts target energy security and market balance," KUNA quoted him as saying, without giving further details. OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil, has been curtailing production for several years to support the market. But it reversed course this year to regain market share, and as U.S. President Donald Trump demanded OPEC pump more to help keep a lid on gasoline prices. Eight members began to raise output in April and have accelerated production increases since then. Their most recent decision calls for an oil output increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August. Al-Roumi said Kuwait supports efforts to maintain a stable international oil market and that OPEC+ decisions are based on market developments. Kuwait possesses some of the world's largest oil reserves and, unlike its Gulf neighbours, remains heavily dependent on oil as it makes slow progress on diversifying its sources of revenues. It ran up a budget deficit of $5.23 billion for the fiscal year 2023/24, on the back of declining oil revenues based on an oil price of $86.36 a barrel. Kuwait's draft budget for the fiscal year 2025/26, which started on April 1, sees the deficit widening to $20.43 billion as oil revenues are expected to fall 5.7% from 2024/25, based on an oil price of $68 a barrel, the country's finance ministry said in February. ($1 = 0.3055 Kuwaiti dinars)
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
OPEC+ Repeats Call for Quota Discipline Before Supply Decision
An OPEC+ committee once again urged members to adhere to oil quotas as they prepare to weigh another production increase. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee noted that some countries didn't stick to their output targets, and instructed them to update plans for making extra cutbacks as compensation, according to a statement on OPEC's website.
Zawya
7 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
OPEC, IEA crude oil demand forecasts may be too cautious: Russell
(The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) LAUNCESTON, Australia - A key difference in crude oil demand forecasts between this year and 2024 is that both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are being far more cautious in their growth expectations. While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ group publicly maintain that strong demand and a tight market justify increasing oil output, the numbers in their monthly report are more circumspect. It is largely the same for the IEA, which forecast in its July monthly report that global crude demand will grow by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the slowest pace since 2009. OPEC's July report is slightly more bullish, forecasting oil demand will increase by 1.29 million bpd in 2025, with 1.16 million bpd coming from countries outside the developed economies of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The forecasts from both the IEA and OPEC are now so cautious that they actually run the risk of being too pessimistic, especially in the top-importing region of Asia. This is in stark contrast to last year, when OPEC in particular was massively bullish in its demand forecasts even as Asia's crude oil imports were declining. There is, of course, a difference between demand forecasts and imports, but the level of seaborne imports is the key driver of crude prices, given it is this market, which accounts for about 40% of global daily oil demand, that sets the global prices. In its July 2024 monthly report OPEC forecast that Asia's non-OECD oil demand would rise by 1.34 million bpd in 2024, with China accounting for 760,000 bpd of this. However, Asia's crude imports actually declined in 2024, dropping by 370,000 bpd to 26.51 million bpd, according to data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. It was the first decline in Asia's oil imports since 2021, at a time when demand was hit by the lockdowns prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The gap between OPEC's bullish forecasts for much of 2024 and the reality of weak crude imports by Asia may have tempered the exporter group's forecasts for 2025. The question is whether they are now actually being too cautious. ASIA RECOVERY OPEC's July monthly report forecast that non-OECD Asia's oil demand will rise by 610,000 bpd in 2025, with China the main contributor at 210,000 and India, Asia's second-biggest crude importer, seeing an increase of 160,000 bpd. The IEA said in its July report that it expects China's total oil product demand to rise by 81,000 bpd in 2025, while India is expected to see a gain of 92,000 bpd. Total non-OECD Asia is forecast to see demand rise by 352,000 bpd. Both the OPEC and the IEA numbers seem modest, especially since Asia's crude imports actually saw relatively strong growth in the first half of 2025. Asia's imports in the first six months of the year were 27.25 million bpd, an increase of 510,000 bpd from the same period last year, according to calculations based on LSEG data. Imports increased in the second quarter, especially in China, as refiners took advantage of the weakening trend in oil prices that prevailed at the time cargoes were being arranged. It is likely that some of the increase in oil imports was used to build inventories, a process that may extend into the second half if oil prices remain soft as OPEC+ increases output amid the economic uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing global trade war. If there is one lesson to be learnt from the difference between this year's circumspect oil demand forecasts and last year's buoyant estimates, it is that price plays a far bigger role in demand, especially in Asia. Part of the reason Asia's crude imports fell short of forecasts in 2024 was because prices remained elevated for much of the year, reaching above $92 a barrel in April and only briefly dropping below $70 in September. This year, prices have been softer, with benchmark Brent futures peaking at just over $82 a barrel in January, and trading as low as $58.50 in May. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Reuters
22-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
OPEC, IEA crude oil demand forecasts may be too cautious
LAUNCESTON, Australia, July 22 (Reuters) - A key difference in crude oil demand forecasts between this year and 2024 is that both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are being far more cautious in their growth expectations. While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ group publicly maintain that strong demand and a tight market justify increasing oil output, the numbers in their monthly report are more circumspect. It is largely the same for the IEA, which forecast in its July monthly report that global crude demand will grow by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the slowest pace since 2009. OPEC's July report is slightly more bullish, forecasting oil demand will increase by 1.29 million bpd in 2025, with 1.16 million bpd coming from countries outside the developed economies of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The forecasts from both the IEA and OPEC are now so cautious that they actually run the risk of being too pessimistic, especially in the top-importing region of Asia. This is in stark contrast to last year, when OPEC in particular was massively bullish in its demand forecasts even as Asia's crude oil imports were declining. There is, of course, a difference between demand forecasts and imports, but the level of seaborne imports is the key driver of crude prices, given it is this market, which accounts for about 40% of global daily oil demand, that sets the global prices. In its July 2024 monthly report OPEC forecast that Asia's non-OECD oil demand would rise by 1.34 million bpd in 2024, with China accounting for 760,000 bpd of this. However, Asia's crude imports actually declined in 2024, dropping by 370,000 bpd to 26.51 million bpd, according to data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. It was the first decline in Asia's oil imports since 2021, at a time when demand was hit by the lockdowns prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The gap between OPEC's bullish forecasts for much of 2024 and the reality of weak crude imports by Asia may have tempered the exporter group's forecasts for 2025. The question is whether they are now actually being too cautious. OPEC's July monthly report forecast that non-OECD Asia's oil demand will rise by 610,000 bpd in 2025, with China the main contributor at 210,000 and India, Asia's second-biggest crude importer, seeing an increase of 160,000 bpd. The IEA said in its July report that it expects China's total oil product demand to rise by 81,000 bpd in 2025, while India is expected to see a gain of 92,000 bpd. Total non-OECD Asia is forecast to see demand rise by 352,000 bpd. Both the OPEC and the IEA numbers seem modest, especially since Asia's crude imports actually saw relatively strong growth in the first half of 2025. Asia's imports in the first six months of the year were 27.25 million bpd, an increase of 510,000 bpd from the same period last year, according to calculations based on LSEG data. Imports increased in the second quarter, especially in China, as refiners took advantage of the weakening trend in oil prices that prevailed at the time cargoes were being arranged. It is likely that some of the increase in oil imports was used to build inventories, a process that may extend into the second half if oil prices remain soft as OPEC+ increases output amid the economic uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing global trade war. If there is one lesson to be learnt from the difference between this year's circumspect oil demand forecasts and last year's buoyant estimates, it is that price plays a far bigger role in demand, especially in Asia. Part of the reason Asia's crude imports fell short of forecasts in 2024 was because prices remained elevated for much of the year, reaching above $92 a barrel in April and only briefly dropping below $70 in September. This year, prices have been softer, with benchmark Brent futures peaking at just over $82 a barrel in January, and trading as low as $58.50 in May. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X, opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
