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Smith: Why staying at Red Bull was always Max Verstappen's best bet for F1 2026
Smith: Why staying at Red Bull was always Max Verstappen's best bet for F1 2026

New York Times

time31-07-2025

  • Automotive
  • New York Times

Smith: Why staying at Red Bull was always Max Verstappen's best bet for F1 2026

The height of European summer is always a fascinating time in Formula One. The paddock is hot, sticky and sweaty. The organizers of the Hungarian Grand Prix, now back in its traditional place as the last race before the summer break, counter this by dotting the paddock with fans (the cooling kind), iced coffee on tap and, one year, even a paddling pool featuring an inflatable shark. Advertisement That build-up of heat and pressure often reflects goings-on in the sport, particularly when it comes to driver market 'silly season.' It's around this point of the year the game of who goes where for the following season really steps up. I'll never forget having my quiet, peaceful brunch on the Monday after the 2022 Hungarian race ruined by Aston Martin announcing Fernando Alonso would be jumping ship from Alpine for the following year. One of the team's press officers later told me she'd seen my Instagram story showing off my avocado on toast — I'm a peak millennial — minutes before the announcement. She knew full well they were about to change my day. Alonso's shock switch then set off Alpine's announcing Oscar Piastri's promotion from his reserve role, only for Piastri to then come out hours later and state he wouldn't be driving for the team next year as he didn't have a contract in place. Instead, he was bound for McLaren. This year's 'silly season' (and potential for more brunch interruptions) all seemed to revolve around Max Verstappen's future. The reigning world champion may be under contract at Red Bull through to 2028, but with the team's form sliding in the past 18 months amid drama behind and in the scenes, the will-he-won't-he storyline looked ready to persist through the summer. The kindling had been there in recent weeks. George Russell's mention of talks between Verstappen and Mercedes being the reason his negotiations were somewhat stalled. Toto Wolff's acknowledgment of 'conversations.' And Verstappen's own coyness, dodging opportunities to firmly state he'd be racing for Red Bull next year. They all established the potential for a huge driver-market twist. But heading to Hungary, much of that has fizzled out. Verstappen is now far enough clear to ensure he's in the top three in the drivers' championship at the summer break, meaning a results-dependent escape clause in his contract cannot now be triggered. Red Bull's off-track tension has subsided in the wake of Christian Horner's shock dismissal as team principal and Verstappen has been upbeat about working with Horner's replacement, Laurent Mekies. Advertisement Wolff had suggested his priority was always to continue with Russell and Kimi Antonelli as Mercedes' line-up next year, having indicated the odds of Verstappen moving across were low. The winds are blowing for Russell to get his long-discussed contract renewal across the line. This seems to now be coming to pass. So it's 'as you were' after all going into 2026, with Verstappen still at Red Bull. And, frankly, that was always going to be the Dutchman's best bet. It should really come as no great surprise he will be sticking around. The enormous reset of F1's car design rules for next year, covering the designs of the cars and, crucially, the engines inside them, are bound to reset the pecking order. This current rules era started with Red Bull domination and looks set to end with McLaren firmly on top. Yet next year, there can be zero guarantees over which team will steal a march. There are just too many variables. Whichever team does get the rules right has a huge opportunity to dominate in turn. We saw as much with Mercedes in 2014, when it had by far the best first V6 hybrid power unit and won the next eight constructors' titles. Lewis Hamilton timed his switch across perfectly, joining from McLaren for 2013 and later becoming F1's statistical greatest of all time. As Verstappen told The Athletic in an interview last month: 'You just hope that you're with the right team, and… I don't (want) to say 'luck in' — but in a way, you do 'luck in' because if you're a good driver and suddenly your team steps up, then you know that you have a winning chance.' When seriously considering a move – even for 2026 – Verstappen would've been aware of the significant risks involved in trying to bet on the right project. Red Bull has embarked on its own ambitious engine project, establishing Red Bull Powertrains with support from Ford. As much as it is taking its destiny into its own hands (as Horner often said as he established the facility) it will also face a big challenge to immediately take on the might of established F1 engine makers Mercedes, Ferrari and Honda. Advertisement By sticking to at least one more year with Red Bull, Verstappen has a chance to see 2026 unfold and get a clear read on the competitive picture. The links to Mercedes and interest from Wolff, who tried signing Verstappen when he was in Formula Three in 2014 and has always remained friendly with both him and his father, Jos, are probably never going to end. And if Verstappen were serious about wanting to make that move, Wolff wouldn't close the door. But the timing has to be right for both parties. The extra year also gives Verstappen visibility on what other seats and opportunities may be on offer. The majority of teams approached the early planning for 2026 wanting line-up stability. This meant a series of multi-year deals were struck through 2024 — that being true for Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll at Aston Martin, the other team with which Verstappen has been linked. Another year will give time for things to open up; right now, the market is fairly static. Verstappen is quite straightforward when it comes to his 'wants' as an F1 driver: a quick car with which he can fight for wins and championships; and a peaceful, supportive environment around him. The main pillars that Verstappen needs at Red Bull, including his race engineer, GianPiero Lambiase, and Helmut Marko, Red Bull's motorsport advisor, remain in place. Horner's departure didn't change anything on that front. Another year with the team and family that has supported Verstappen right through his F1 career, taking him from a precocious 17-year-old debutant to a four-time world champion, is no hardship. He's spoken of his eagerness to work with Red Bull's engineers and team members based solely at its factory to understand why it has struggled so much of late. And while it may realistically be too late to save his title defense this year, a similar spirit will surely be applied to the 2026 challenge. Advertisement Staying put won't hurt Verstappen at Red Bull. He can take in the pecking order and assess his own happiness at the team under Mekies, then see what options come his way. This just wasn't a now-or-never scenario for him. It'll be a hot weekend in Hungary, even if the silly season temperature is coming down a few degrees. But a revival this time next year is inevitable, with Verstappen surely at its heart all over again. But now Red Bull navigates the start of its next phase there'll be calm — exactly as Verstappen likes it. And just maybe, I'll get to fully enjoy my avocado on toast in peace next Monday… (Top image:)

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