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UK pay growth slows as jobless rate rises to highest since 2021
UK pay growth slows as jobless rate rises to highest since 2021

Reuters

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Reuters

UK pay growth slows as jobless rate rises to highest since 2021

LONDON, June 10 (Reuters) - British pay growth slowed sharply in the three months to April and unemployment rose to its highest in nearly four years, official data showed on Tuesday, potentially easing the Bank of England's caution about how quickly to cut interest rates. Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, were 5.2% higher in the February-to-April period versus a year earlier, their weakest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2024 and down from a downwardly revised 5.5% in the three months to March. A Reuters poll of economists had mostly forecast regular wage growth of 5.3%. The unemployment rate, based on a survey that the ONS is overhauling and which many economists have doubts about, rose to 4.6% from 4.5% in the first quarter of 2025, following a rise in employers' social security contributions at the start of April. The BoE is trying to gauge whether inflation pressures in Britain's labour market are easing sufficiently for it to continue cutting interest rates. It is expected to keep rates on hold next week. Yael Selfin, chief economist at accountants KPMG, said Tuesday's figures suggest the rise in firms' labour costs would probably put a brake on wage growth. "The MPC is unlikely to vote for a cut next week, as it will likely require more evidence that wage growth is falling back to levels consistent with the inflation target," Selfin said. A 25 billion pound ($34 billion) increase in employers' social security contributions and a 6.7% hike in the minimum wage came into force in April. Domestic wage and price developments are likely to be more important for future reductions in borrowing costs than U.S. trade policy, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has said, although April's U.S. tariffs did help swing some policymakers' decision to vote for a cut at its last meeting in May. In the private sector alone - watched closely by the BoE - earnings excluding bonuses rose by 5.1% in the three months to the end of April, also the weakest pace since the third quarter of 2024 the Office for National Statistics said. Sterling weakened against the U.S. dollar immediately after the data was published and investors also priced in a higher chance that the BoE will cut rates twice more this year. Vacancies fell by 63,000 in the three months to May, their lowest level since the three months to April 2021. ($1 = 0.7396 pounds)

UK pay growth slows as job market cools amid uncertainty
UK pay growth slows as job market cools amid uncertainty

Yahoo

time13-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

UK pay growth slows as job market cools amid uncertainty

UK pay growth slowed in the three months to March, with the jobs market also showing signs of cooling, amid heightened economic uncertainty. Average regular earnings excluding bonuses rose 5.6% in the period on an annual basis, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). That was down from 5.9% in the three months to February, but still easily outstripped inflation, which fell to 2.6% in March. Annual growth in real terms — adjusted for inflation — fell to 1.8%, compared with 2.1% in the previous quarter. There were 761,000 job vacancies between February and April, according to estimates from the ONS, which was down 42,000 on the previous three months. This figure was 34,000 below the number of vacancies in January to March 2020. Early estimates showed that the number of payrolled employees fell by 33,000 in April on the month and declined by 106,000 on the year, following an decrease of 63,000 in the year to March. The unemployment rate came in at 4.5% in January to March, which was up from 4.4% in the previous quarter. ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: "Wage growth slowed slightly in the latest period but remains relatively strong, with public and private sectors now showing little difference." Read more: Bank of England interest rate-setters want inflation down before more cuts "The broader picture continues to be of the labour market cooling, with the number of employees on payroll falling in the first quarter of the year. The number of job vacancies has also fallen agains, with the rate of decline increasing in the last few months." This latest data comes after the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates on Thursday by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25%. However, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said: "The past few weeks have shown how unpredictable the global economy can be. "That's why we need to stick to a gradual and careful approach to further rate cuts. Ensuring low and stable inflation is our top priority." Later that day, the UK and US announced that they had reached a trade deal, which was the first pact the US had agreed since president Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on what he called "Liberation Day" at the beginning of April. The pact included reduced tariffs on British cars and scrapping duties on steel. Uncertainty over Trump's tariffs have fuelled concerns that this could lead to a slowdown in the global economy. However, news on Monday that the US and China had agreed to temporarily cut tariffs on each other, marked a de-escalation on trade tensions and helped ease some of investors fears. Meanwhile, the cooling of the UK labour market also came ahead of increases in employer national insurance contributions and in the minimum wage, which were announced in the autumn budget and took effect in early April. Read more: Stocks to watch this week: Alibaba, Walmart, Burberry, Imperial Brands and Tui Bank of England's commitment to bring inflation down is 'unwavering', says Bailey The most bought stocks and funds for investors in AprilError in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

UK pay growth slows as job market cools amid uncertainty
UK pay growth slows as job market cools amid uncertainty

Yahoo

time13-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

UK pay growth slows as job market cools amid uncertainty

UK pay growth slowed in the three months to March, with the jobs market also showing signs of cooling, amid heightened economic uncertainty. Average regular earnings excluding bonuses rose 5.6% in the period on an annual basis, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). That was down from 5.9% in the three months to February, but still easily outstripped inflation, which fell to 2.6% in March. Annual growth in real terms — adjusted for inflation — fell to 1.8%, compared with 2.1% in the previous quarter. There were 761,000 job vacancies between February and April, according to estimates from the ONS, which was down 42,000 on the previous three months. This figure was 34,000 below the number of vacancies in January to March 2020. Early estimates showed that the number of payrolled employees fell by 33,000 in April on the month and declined by 106,000 on the year, following an decrease of 63,000 in the year to March. The unemployment rate came in at 4.5% in January to March, which was up from 4.4% in the previous quarter. ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: "Wage growth slowed slightly in the latest period but remains relatively strong, with public and private sectors now showing little difference." Read more: Bank of England interest rate-setters want inflation down before more cuts "The broader picture continues to be of the labour market cooling, with the number of employees on payroll falling in the first quarter of the year. The number of job vacancies has also fallen agains, with the rate of decline increasing in the last few months." This latest data comes after the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates on Thursday by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25%. However, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said: "The past few weeks have shown how unpredictable the global economy can be. "That's why we need to stick to a gradual and careful approach to further rate cuts. Ensuring low and stable inflation is our top priority." Later that day, the UK and US announced that they had reached a trade deal, which was the first pact the US had agreed since president Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on what he called "Liberation Day" at the beginning of April. The pact included reduced tariffs on British cars and scrapping duties on steel. Uncertainty over Trump's tariffs have fuelled concerns that this could lead to a slowdown in the global economy. However, news on Monday that the US and China had agreed to temporarily cut tariffs on each other, marked a de-escalation on trade tensions and helped ease some of investors fears. Meanwhile, the cooling of the UK labour market also came ahead of increases in employer national insurance contributions and in the minimum wage, which were announced in the autumn budget and took effect in early April. Read more: Stocks to watch this week: Alibaba, Walmart, Burberry, Imperial Brands and Tui Bank of England's commitment to bring inflation down is 'unwavering', says Bailey The most bought stocks and funds for investors in April

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