UK pay growth slows as job market cools amid uncertainty

Yahoo

13-05-2025

UK pay growth slowed in the three months to March, with the jobs market also showing signs of cooling, amid heightened economic uncertainty.
Average regular earnings excluding bonuses rose 5.6% in the period on an annual basis, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). That was down from 5.9% in the three months to February, but still easily outstripped inflation, which fell to 2.6% in March.
Annual growth in real terms — adjusted for inflation — fell to 1.8%, compared with 2.1% in the previous quarter.
There were 761,000 job vacancies between February and April, according to estimates from the ONS, which was down 42,000 on the previous three months. This figure was 34,000 below the number of vacancies in January to March 2020.
Early estimates showed that the number of payrolled employees fell by 33,000 in April on the month and declined by 106,000 on the year, following an decrease of 63,000 in the year to March.
The unemployment rate came in at 4.5% in January to March, which was up from 4.4% in the previous quarter.
ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: "Wage growth slowed slightly in the latest period but remains relatively strong, with public and private sectors now showing little difference."
Read more: Bank of England interest rate-setters want inflation down before more cuts
"The broader picture continues to be of the labour market cooling, with the number of employees on payroll falling in the first quarter of the year. The number of job vacancies has also fallen agains, with the rate of decline increasing in the last few months."
This latest data comes after the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates on Thursday by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25%. However, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said: "The past few weeks have shown how unpredictable the global economy can be.
"That's why we need to stick to a gradual and careful approach to further rate cuts. Ensuring low and stable inflation is our top priority."
Later that day, the UK and US announced that they had reached a trade deal, which was the first pact the US had agreed since president Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on what he called "Liberation Day" at the beginning of April. The pact included reduced tariffs on British cars and scrapping duties on steel.
Uncertainty over Trump's tariffs have fuelled concerns that this could lead to a slowdown in the global economy. However, news on Monday that the US and China had agreed to temporarily cut tariffs on each other, marked a de-escalation on trade tensions and helped ease some of investors fears.
Meanwhile, the cooling of the UK labour market also came ahead of increases in employer national insurance contributions and in the minimum wage, which were announced in the autumn budget and took effect in early April.
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