08-07-2025
Why a Third-Party Bid Is Unlikely but Not Impossible
Is there an opening for a third party? Elon Musk seems to think so, as he announced a new America Party this weekend.
My recent newsletter on this question elicited a lot of feedback. The replies were mostly about the obstacles facing a third party, and they are indeed quite formidable. They're so formidable that they will probably prevent the emergence of one, even if conditions are favorable.
The same must be said for Mr. Musk's new party. This article won't focus on his effort, which so far consists of a social media post. The conditions for a 'neoliberal' third party like Mr. Musk's may be in place, but the single likeliest outcome is that it fails to win anything at all.
As I put it, the conditions for pandas to breed may be in place when you put two pandas in a room, but it doesn't mean breeding is likely. Add Mr. Musk's unique political liabilities and the path only gets harder.
Still, many readers wanted to know more about how a third party — again, this isn't about the America Party — could actually succeed in the face of so many clear obstacles.
Here are a few possible paths:
The American electoral system tends to favor a two-party system, and one of the most important reasons is that it's winner-take-all.
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