22-07-2025
No One Controls MAGA — Not Even Trump
Apart from supplying endless fodder to journalists and Democrats, the White House's attempts to put a lid on the Jeffrey Epstein affair provide a useful test for a question that will matter more the deeper we travel into Donald Trump's second term: Namely, to what extent does MAGA populism exist as a political force distinct from the impulses and whims of its red-hatted leader?
The popular answer has always been that it doesn't, that MAGA is just a cult of personality in which any ideological reversal will be tolerated so long as the Great Man sets the course.
But this confuses the personal bond between Trump and his core supporters, which is unlikely to be severed by any mere policy dispute, with his ability to persuade those supporters to actually change their substantive views, where his powers are more limited.
The president is an especially potent avatar for the broad populist impulse across the West. But he did not create that impulse, and he doesn't single-handedly decide what it demands or where it ends up. Instead, there is an ongoing negotiation between what the president would like to do and what his voters will accept.
In some cases, what MAGA wants acts as an ideological tether on Trump's political impulses. You can see this especially on immigration, where the president's personal restrictionism still leaves room for some kind of wide door in his big, beautiful wall.
Depending on which interest group Trump is talking to, that door could be open for farm and hotel workers, or for H-1B visa recipients, or for foreign college students hoping to have a green card stapled to their diplomas.
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