Latest news with #post-COVID
The Hindu
a day ago
- Business
- The Hindu
FPI inflows into equities at 8-month high in May 2025
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) invested ₹19,860 crore, the highest in eight months, in May, according to data from NSDL. Foreign investors invested five times more than they invested in the previous month into Indian equities. The FPI investments came in positive for the second consecutive month in May after recording a net outflow for three consecutive months. This assumes significance as at the beginning of the calendar year 2025 and the better part of FY25, foreign investors were net sellers of Indian equity. The increase in foreign investor inflows came on the top of increasing returns in the domestic markets. Nifty increased 6% in March 2025, the highest in monthly return since July 2024. A combination of correction from the post-COVID rally, and the uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies contributed to the net selling as foreign funds invested in U.S. bonds and exited the Asian stock markets due to tariff uncertainty. Liberation Day tariffs further increased the uncertainty as major economies were expected to be hit. The 90-day pause, however, cooled the uncertainty and with a trade deal between the U.S. and India imminent, market confidence returned to India. At the domestic level, a less-volatile rupee, softening inflation and improving GDP growth has led to the return of foreign money into the Indian equity market. This moderation in global risks to India's growth and improving state of domestic economic indicators may have instilled confidence in foreign investors, according to analysts
The Hindu
a day ago
- Business
- The Hindu
Editors pick newsletter GDP growth at 6.5% in 2024-25, slowest since the pandemic
While a significant uptick in economic activity in the fourth quarter (Q4) of financial year 2024-25 pushed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the full year to 6.5%, as per the provisional estimates for 2024-25 released by the government on Friday, this is the slowest since the pandemic year 2020-21. As per data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, real GDP growth in Q4 of 2024-25 accelerated to 7.4%, the fastest quarterly growth in the year. It was still slower than 8.4% growth seen in Q4 of the previous financial year. Quarterly GDP growth in Q3 stood at 6.4%. Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran, in a press briefing following the release of the data, sought to downplay the post-COVID slowdown of the economy, saying that India has held its own in a 'growth-scarce' global environment. 'If you look in real terms, India's growth rate differential in comparison to the average growth rate of advanced economies was on the lower side during the 'boom era' between 2003 and 2010,' Mr. Nageswaran explained. 'The growth differential post COVID is higher than the growth differential in the 'boom era'.' 'In other words, in a growth-scarce environment post COVID and despite the rising uncertainties due to political conflicts and trade tensions, India is holding up its growth numbers better than many advanced economies,' he added. The agriculture sector continued its strong performance in Q4, leading to a relatively strong showing for the full year. The 'Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing' sector grew 5.4% in Q4 of the year, up from 0.9% in Q4 of 2023-24. This helped propel the full year's growth for the sector to 4.6% in 2024-25, up from 2.7% in 2023-24. The manufacturing sector's growth stood at 4.8% in Q4 of FY25, the second fastest quarterly growth in the year, on a high base of 11.3% in Q4 of the previous year. The sector grew 4.5% in the full financial year 2024-25, down from 12.3% in 2023-24. The construction sector returned to double-digit growth of 10.8% in the fourth quarter, the fastest in the year, and faster than the 8.7% seen in Q4 of 2023-24. The sector's full-year growth stood at 9.4% in 2024-25, down from 10.4% in 2023-24. Growth in the tertiary sector — a composite of all the services sectors — stood at 7.3% in Q4, in line with the growth in Q2 (7.2%) and Q3 (7.4%). Growth in Q4, however, was slower than the 7.8% seen in the fourth quarter of 2023-24. In the full year 2024-25, the tertiary sector grew at 7.2%, lower than the 9% in the previous year. The data released on Friday also showed that growth in household consumption quickened to 7.2% in 2024-25 from 5.6% in the previous year. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, a measure of asset creation by the public and private sector, saw growth slowing to 7.1% in 2024-25 from 8.8% in 2023-24. This is despite growth in this spending quickening to a six-quarter high of 9.4% in Q4. For FY26, the Reserve Bank of India has cut India's growth forecast to 6.5% from 6.7% estimated earlier for the current financial year on account of impact of global trade and policy uncertainties. In another set of numbers, the Government has met its fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP in 2024-25 though total receipts came in slightly lower than expected, as per data released by the Controller General of Accounts. The Centre's total revenue — counting tax, non-tax and capital receipts — came in at ₹30.78 lakh crore in 2024-25 or 97.8% of its revised estimates for the year. Total expenditure stood at ₹46.55 lakh crore, also 97.8% of the estimates. The fiscal deficit, the difference between total expenditure and total revenue, at ₹15.77 lakh crore, stood at 4.8% of GDP based on the latest provisional estimates for the year. As part of the Centre's fiscal consolidation glide path, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had, in Budget speech in February, targeted fiscal deficit of 4.4% of GDP for FY26. Closer examination of the data show total revenue fell short of the revised estimates due in large part to a shortfall in miscellaneous capital receipts, that includes disinvestment proceeds. There was also a minor shortfall in tax revenue. The Centre earned ₹17,202 crore as miscellaneous capital receipts or just 52.1% of revised estimates for FY25. Department of Investment and Public Asset Management data show the government earned ₹10,131.32 crore via disinvestments in 2024-25. Corporate tax collection at ₹9.87 lakh crore in FY25 was 0.7% higher than revised estimates. Income tax collections, on the other hand, at ₹11.83 lakh crore were almost 6% lower than revised estimate. The Hindu's Editorials The Hindu's Daily Quiz Which of the following States has been under President's rule since February 13? Assam Meghalaya Manipur Nagaland To know the answer and to play the full quiz, click here.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Making Sense of Q2 Earnings Expectations
We count the Costco COST and AutoZone AZO releases for their respective fiscal quarters ending in May as part of our June-quarter tally. As such, the AutoZone and Costco quarterly reports have kicked off the Q2 earnings season for us, even though we still have a few Q1 earnings releases to await. In fact, by the time the big banks put the spotlight on the Q2 reporting cycle by releasing their June-quarter results on July 14th, we will have seen such May-quarter results from more than two dozen S&P 500 members. Costco handily beat consensus estimates for earnings, revenues, and same-store sales (comps). Same-store sales for the quarter were up +8%, excluding gasoline and the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations. This follows +9.1% comp growth in the preceding period relative to estimates of +6.3%. Of particular significance is the high single-digit comp growth in Costco's non-food merchandise, which can be compared to the discretionary or general merchandise categories at other retailers, such as Walmart and Target. A significant part of Costco's discretionary strength likely reflects the retailer's high-income customer base, but it is also likely gaining market share in these product categories. Costco continues to execute well despite the tariff challenges. Management reiterated on the call that merchandise at the domestic business is mostly sourced from within the U.S., with only about a quarter of Costco U.S. sales dependent on imports. Looking beyond Costco and AutoZone, the expectation is for Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index to increase by +5.4% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues. This will be a material deceleration from the +12% earnings growth in Q1 on +4.7% revenue growth. We have been regularly flagging in recent weeks that 2025 Q2 earnings estimates have been steadily decreasing, as shown in the chart below. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The magnitude of cuts to 2025 Q2 estimates since the start of the period is bigger and more widespread relative to what we have become used to seeing in the post-COVID period. Since the start of April, Q2 estimates have declined for 15 of the 16 Zacks sectors (Aerospace is the only sector whose estimates have increased), with the largest cuts to the Transportation, Autos, Energy, Basic Materials, and Construction sectors. Estimates for the Tech and Finance sectors, the largest contributors to the S&P 500 index, which account for more than 50% of all index earnings, have also been cut since the quarter began. But as we have been pointing out in recent weeks, the revisions trend for the Tech sector has notably stabilized, which you can see in the chart below. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research We see this same trend at play in annual estimates as well. The chart below shows the Tech sector's evolving earnings expectations for full-year 2025 Image Source: Zacks Investment Research A likely explanation for this stabilization in the revisions trend is the easing in the tariff uncertainty after the more punitive version of the tariff regime was delayed. Analysts started revising their estimates lower in the immediate aftermath of the early April tariff announcements, but appear to have since concluded that those punitive tariff levels are unlikely to get levied, helping stabilize the revisions trend. The chart below shows current Q2 earnings and revenue growth expectations in the context of the preceding 5 quarters and the coming two quarters. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a calendar-year basis. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The Q1 Earnings Scorecard As we noted earlier, the Q1 earnings season isn't over yet. Through Friday, May 30th, we have seen Q1 results from 490 S&P 500 members or 98% of the index's total membership. Total earnings for these 490 index members that have reported results are up +11.9% from the same period last year on +4.8% revenue gains, with 74.1% of the companies beating EPS estimates and 63.3% beating revenue estimates. The comparison charts below put the Q1 earnings and revenue growth rates for these index members in a historical context. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The comparison charts below put the Q1 EPS and revenue beats percentages in a historical context. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research As you can see here, the EPS and revenue beats percentages are tracking below historical averages, with the Q1 EPS beats percentage of 74.1% comparing to the average for the same group of 78.4% over the preceding 20-quarter period (5 years). The Q1 revenue beats percentage of 63.3% compares to the 5-year average for this group of index members of 71.2%.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) : Free Stock Analysis Report AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Sign in to access your portfolio
The Hindu
2 days ago
- Business
- The Hindu
GDP growth at 6.5% in 2024-25, slowest since the pandemic
While a significant uptick in economic activity in the fourth quarter of financial year 2024-25 pushed GDP growth for the full year to 6.5%, as per the provisional estimates for 2024-25 released by the government on Friday, this is the slowest since the pandemic year 2020-21. As per data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, real GDP growth in Q4 of 2024-25 accelerated to 7.4%, the fastest quarterly growth in the year. Quarterly GDP growth stood at 6.4% in Q3. Nevertheless, growth in Q4 of 2024-25 was slower than the 8.4% seen in the fourth quarter of the previous financial year. Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran, in a press briefing following the release of the data, sought to downplay the post-COVID slowdown in the Indian economy, saying that India has held its own in a 'growth-scarce' global environment. 'If you look at India's growth differential in real terms, India's growth rate differential in comparison to the average growth rate of advanced economies was on the lower side during the 'boom era' between 2003 and 2010,' Nageswaran explained. 'The growth differential post-COVID is higher than the growth differential in the 'boom era'.' 'In other words, in a growth-scarce environment, post-COVID and despite the rising uncertainties due to political conflicts and trade tensions, India is holding up its growth numbers better than many advanced economies,' he added. The agriculture sector continued its strong performance in Q4, leading to a relatively strong showing for the full year. The 'Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing' sector grew 5.4% in Q4 of the year, up from 0.9% in Q4 of 2023-24. This helped propel the full year's growth for the sector to 4.6% in the full year 2024-25, up from 2.7% in 2023-24. The manufacturing sector's growth stood at 4.8% in Q4 of FY25, the second fastest quarterly growth in the year, on a high base of 11.3% in Q4 of the previous year. The sector grew 4.5% in the full financial year 2024-25, down from 12.3% in 2023-24. The construction sector returned to double-digit growth of 10.8% in the fourth quarter, the fastest in the year, and faster than the 8.7% seen in Q4 of 2023-24. The sector's full-year growth stood at 9.4% in 2024-25, down from 10.4% in 2023-24. Growth in the tertiary sector — a composite of all the services sectors — stood at 7.3% in Q4, in line with the growth in Q2 (7.2%) and Q3 (7.4%). Growth in Q4, however, was slower than the 7.8% seen in the fourth quarter of 2023-24. In the full year 2024-25, the tertiary sector grew at 7.2%, lower than the 9% in the previous year. The data released on Friday also showed that growth in household consumption – as measured by the Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) figure — quickened to 7.2% in 2024-25 from 5.6% in the previous year. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, a measure of asset creation by the public and private sectors, saw growth slowing to 7.1% in 2024-25 from 8.8% in 2023-24. This is despite growth in this spending quickening to a six-quarter high of 9.4% in Q4 of 2024-25. Hand over Saeed, Azhar if serious about talks: Rajnath Singh Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Friday said that if Pakistan was serious about holding talks with India, it should first hand over Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) chief Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) founder Masood Azhar. Speaking onboard INS Vikrant off the Goa coast, Singh described Operation Sindoor as 'India's frontal assault against terrorism' and warned that 'if Pakistan resorted to anything evil, it would face the Indian Navy's firepower.' He said the Navy had transformed into a strategic force, significantly strengthening India's maritime presence. 'It warns the enemy that India is no longer just a regional power, it is becoming a global power,' he said. Addressing officers and sailors onboard the country's first indigenous aircraft carrier, Singh said the Pakistani Navy had not ventured out during the operation, asserting that had it done so, it 'would have faced the consequences.' He said Pakistan must recognise that the 'dangerous game of terrorism it has been playing since Independence' must come to an end. 'Now, if Pakistan instigates any terrorist act against India, it will have to bear the consequences and face defeat. India will not hesitate. It will use every method to root out the menace of terrorism,' he said. Stating that anti-India activities were being conducted openly from Pakistani soil, Singh said India was 'completely free' to carry out operations against terrorists across the border and at sea. 'Today, the whole world is acknowledging India's right to protect its citizens against terrorism,' he added, urging Pakistan to dismantle the 'nursery of terrorism operating on its soil with its own hands.' Regarding the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, an accused in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, the Minister reiterated India's position on Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar. 'Both of them are not only in India's list of 'Most Wanted Terrorists', they are also UN-designated terrorists… Hafiz Saeed is also guilty of the Mumbai attacks, and justice must be done for his crime,' he said. Responding to Pakistan's repeated calls for dialogue, Singh said, 'If there are talks, it will only be on terrorism and PoK. If Pakistan is serious about talks, it should hand over terrorists like Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar to India so that justice is served.' Highlighting the Indian Navy's contribution during the integrated operation, he said that while the Indian Air Force struck terror bases across the border, the Navy ensured maritime dominance. Its 'aggressive deployment in the Arabian Sea, its unmatched maritime domain awareness and supremacy confined the Pakistani Navy to its own shores,' he noted. Singh said that within 96 hours of the Pahalgam terrorist attack, ships from the Navy's Western Fleet conducted successful firings of surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles and torpedoes from both the western and eastern coasts. 'It demonstrated the combat readiness of our platforms, systems and crew and our intent and readiness, forcing the enemy to come into a defensive posture,' he said. Reiterating Prime Minister Narendra Modi's position, the Minister said: 'If any terrorist attack takes place on Indian soil, it will be considered an 'act of war' and responded to in the same way.' He added that Operation Sindoor was 'not yet over; it was just a pause and a warning.' Commending the armed forces for their swift execution and strategic clarity, he said India was prepared for contemporary warfare, which now extended into cyberspace, data dominance, and strategic deterrence. 'It is a matter of pride that the Navy is moving ahead in these areas,' Singh said. A statement from the Ministry of Defence noted that in addition to INS Vikrant, Singh also embarked on other key frontline warships that formed part of the Carrier Battle Group and played a pivotal role in confining Pakistani naval units to the vicinity of the Makran coast. IndiGo to terminate Turkish Airlines plane lease agreement before August 31 IndiGo has given an undertaking to the DGCA that it will terminate its agreement with Turkish Airlines under which it uses the latter's two Boeing 777 aircraft and crew to provide flights to Istanbul from New Delhi and Mumbai. 'In order to avoid passenger inconvenience due to immediate flight disruption, IndiGo has been granted a one-time last and final extension of three months to August 8, 2025 for these damp leased aircraft,' according to a press statement from the aviation regulator. There have been boycott calls for Türkiye following its support for Pakistan during the military strikes along the India-Pakistan border earlier this month. The statement said that though the regulator had initially rejected their request for extending the lease arrangement beyond May 31, 2025 for six months, temporary relief for three months was granted on the basis of an assurance from the airline that it will terminate the agreement before August 31. The airline 'wet-leased' two Boeing 777 aircraft in 2023 to provide flights to Istanbul to overcome the impact of a sizeable grounding of aircraft because of issues with Pratt & Whitney engines as well as technical limitations of using its own narrowbody A321 to fly to the Turkish capital it had originally deployed. The airline was being forced to either take a midway fuel stop or carry fewer passengers because of weight-related considerations on the route. Supreme Court gets three new judges, reaches full strength of 34 The Supreme Court got three new judges in Justices N.V. Anjaria, Vijay Bishnoi and A.S. Chandurkar, who were sworn in by Chief Justice of India B.R. Gavai in a short ceremony on Friday. With this, the number of judges of the court has reached its sanctioned strength of 34. This will continue until the retirement of Justice Bela M. Trivedi on June 9, 2025. Justices Anjaria, Bishnoi and Chandurkar were welcomed with warm handshakes by Chief Justice Gavai after they took their oath of office. Justice Bishnoi took the oath of office in Hindi. The Collegium headed by Chief Justice Gavai had recommended Justice Anjaria, who was Chief Justice, the High Court of Karnataka; Justice Vijay Bishnoi, who was Chief Justice of the Gauhati High Court; and Justice Chandurkar, a judge of the Bombay High Court, to the top court in a meeting held on May 26, 2025. The government had approved their names for appointment on May 29, in just three days. Justice Anjaria's parent High Court is Gujarat and Justice Bishnoi's is the Rajasthan High Court. Justice Chandurkar started his career in the Bombay High Court itself. Justice Anjaria was born in March 1965 at Ahmedabad, and hails from a family of lawyers. As an advocate, he had been a senior panel counsel for the Central Bureau of Investigation, BSNL, the Union Public Service Commission, the University Grants Commission, the All India Council for Technical Education, and the National Council for Teacher Education. He was elevated as an Additional Judge of the Gujarat High Court in November 2011 and confirmed as a Permanent Judge in September 2013. He took oath as the Karnataka High Court Chief Justice on February 25 last year. Justice Bishnoi was born in March 1964 at Jodhpur. He enrolled as an advocate in July 1989. He was appointed as an Additional Judge of the Rajasthan High Court in January 2013 and became Permanent Judge of the High Court in January 2015. He took oath as the Chief Justice of the Gauhati High Court on February 5, 2024. Justice Chandurkar was born in April 1965 and joined the Bar in July 1988. He was elevated to the Bombay High Court Bench on June 21, 2013. Pakistan targeted civilian areas in J&K, and Poonch suffered most damage, says Amit Shah Promising to work out a comprehensive relief package and build more underground shelters for border residents affected by the Pakistan Army's shelling in J&K, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, while touring the shelling-affected residential areas of Poonch on Friday, said the damage inflicted on the nine airbases of Pakistan by India forced it 'to come forward for a ceasefire proposal'. 'On the night of May 7, terror headquarters and other centres in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Pakistan were destroyed in response to the cowardly Pahalgam attack. Precise intelligence and measured targets by the security agencies saw no civilian deaths or the Pakistan Army being targeted. Though hundreds of terrorists were killed. 'Shaken Pakistan took it as an attack on itself. It proved before the world that Pakistan provides safe havens to terrorists. The next day, J&K's residential areas were targeted by shelling by Pakistan, with Poonch being the worst affected. It was only when Pakistan's nine air bases were damaged that it came forward for a compromise (ceasefire proposal),' Shah said in his speech in Poonch. The Union Home Minister said under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's new defence policy, India demonstrated that the response to such condemnable attacks 'would be of the same intensity'. 'It's clear any aggression or attack on civilians or on borders will be responded to strongly and forcefully. Our army demonstrated it,' he said. On the alertness and dedication shown by the Border Security Forces (BSF) during the three-day military confrontation, Shah said, 'The BSF has been vigilant during peacetime too. It was evident from the fact that 118 Pakistani posts were destroyed or damaged in minimum time by the BSF selectively. It will take the enemy four to five years to rebuild them.' He reiterated India's position on talks with Pakistan. 'Terror and talks, terror and trade can't go together. Blood and water can't flow together,' Shah said. Admitting that recent events impacting the development process in J&K, Shah said, 'J&K's path of development may have slowed down for a short time. It will resume its pace soon and no one can hinder J&K's development,' he added. He expressed his indignation over the shelling of residential areas and on the religious places, including a temple, a gurdwara and a madrasa in Poonch, by Pakistan. 'It was for the first time since 1947, Poonch saw shelling that also hit a gurdwara, a temple and a madrasa. The entire world condemned the attack by Pakistan,' the Union minister said. Meanwhile, Shah handed over job letters to the kin of those civilians who died in Pakistani shelling in Poonch and promised to work out a comprehensive package for the affected population. At least 14 civilians, including four children, died in Pakistani shelling. 'No relief or compensation can compensate for the loss of lives. However, it reflected the Centre's, the J&K government's and 1.4 billion people's sentiment towards the victims. We stand with them like a solid rock,' Shah said. He praised the J&K government, officials and elected representatives for standing with border residents and ensuring their safety. 'After Narendra Modi took over as the PM, we constructed 9500 bunkers in border areas and managed to save lives. Taking into consideration the recent shelling by Pakistan. more bunkers will be built to face any eventuality in the future,' the Minister said. In brief: Kerala rains: IMD declares red alert for eight districts With heavy rainfall continuing to batter Kerala districts, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday (May 30, 2025) upgraded the rainfall alert level for the State by putting eight districts on red alert for extremely heavy rainfall (above 20 cm in a 24-hour period). Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki, Thrissur, Kannur and Kasaragod are on red alert. All the remaining six districts are on orange alert for isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall. Indications are that rainfall is likely to taper off in most districts after Saturday (May 31, 2025). Only isolated heavy rainfall is expected in all 14 districts on Saturday (May 31, 2025). Some of the northern districts are also likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall till at least June 3, according to the latest update. Trump administration orders extra vetting of all visa applicants linked to Harvard University The U.S. State Department ordered all its consular missions overseas to begin additional vetting of visa applicants looking to travel to Harvard University for any purpose, according to an internal cable seen by Reuters on Friday (May 30, 2025), in a move that significantly expands President Donald Trump's crackdown against the academic institution. In a cable dated May 30 and sent to all U.S. diplomatic and consular posts, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio instructed the immediate start of 'additional vetting of any non-immigrant visa applicant seeking to travel to Harvard University for any purpose.' Harvard University failed to maintain 'a campus environment free from violence and anti-Semitism', the cable said, and that the enhanced vetting measures were aimed at helping consular officers identify visa applicants 'with histories of anti-Semitic harassment and violence.' Evening Wrap will return tomorrow.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Barclays warns the stock market could be getting complacent at these valuations
-- Barclays is sounding a note of caution on U.S. equities, warning that investors may be underestimating mounting macroeconomic risks even as valuations remain elevated. 'Equities could be getting complacent at these valuations considering EPS estimate cuts, high rates, rising jobless claims, and ongoing tariff uncertainties,' Barclays analysts wrote in a recent note. The firm stated that the rebound in equity markets over the past month has sharply lowered the market-implied probability of a recession, even though Bloomberg survey forecasts for a downturn have continued to rise. 'Equities appear to be looking through macro risks despite survey metrics that still imply elevated probability of a recession,' Barclays noted. While the bank acknowledged that 'recession risks have moderated since April,' it pointed to a series of factors that suggest the market's optimism may be premature. Among them: continued downward revisions to earnings estimates, stubbornly high interest rates, and a labor market showing signs of strain. The May rally, they added, 'likely got an assist from systematic/technical tailwinds.' The analysts also noted a historical parallel: 'The last time the Bloomberg survey recession forecasts saw this kind of upward climb was in 2022,' when forecasts remained high even as equities surged in 2023. This, they said, 'demonstrates equity markets' willingness to continue looking through macro distortions in the post-COVID era.' Still, Barclays urged caution, citing the disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals. 'Equity market pricing of a recession has diminished greatly even as survey forecasts continue to rise,' they wrote, underscoring the potential for a correction if macro risks reassert themselves. Related articles Barclays warns the stock market could be getting complacent at these valuations UBS: Bull case scenario for global stock market gaining traction Why Elon Musk needs Tesla more than ever? Humanoid, BYD and much more on Tesla
