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First Post
4 days ago
- Business
- First Post
Why India must reject US demands to cut Russian oil
Energy security is a core national interest. Surrendering it under coercion risks weakening not only India's negotiating position today but also its sovereignty in the policy choices of tomorrow read more India's position in the post-Ukraine war energy order has been pivotal. Since 2022, it has emerged as one of Russia's top two crude buyers, importing 1.7 to 1.9 million barrels per day at sustained discounts to Brent. These flows have been central to stabilising domestic energy costs, containing inflation, and protecting fiscal space. Yet this strategic advantage is now directly under attack from an explicitly political campaign by Washington. On August 7, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, citing that India 'directly or indirectly' imports Russian oil. The tariff, which will take effect 21 days later, is not a marginal measure. It targets a strategic partner in a manner no other major Russian oil buyer—notably China—has faced. Trump's framing is unambiguous: India's energy decisions are being weaponised in the broader US campaign against Moscow. This is the first time a U.S. president has linked trade penalties so explicitly to India's crude import mix, making the move as much a test of Indian sovereignty as of its economic resilience. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The irony is that this pressure comes amid fluid US–Russia negotiations. Trump has publicly claimed 'great progress' in talks between his special envoy and President Vladimir Putin, while simultaneously preparing secondary sanctions. Market reaction to this ambiguity has been sharp. Brent futures fell to $66.89 per barrel, their lowest since June 10, and U.S. WTI settled at $64.35, marking five consecutive days of losses. Traders are now caught between two signals—the threat of harsher sanctions on Moscow and the possibility of a sanctions rollback if a ceasefire deal materialises. In this environment, India's crude sourcing is being politicised at a time when the market itself is in flux. The selective nature of U.S. pressure is difficult to ignore. In 2024, the European Union's bilateral trade in goods with Russia reached €67.5 billion, with an additional €17.2 billion in services trade in 2023—figures far exceeding India's total trade with Russia. European imports of Russian liquefied natural gas reached a record 16.5 million tonnes in 2024, surpassing the previous record of 15.21 million tonnes in 2022. Yet these LNG flows, which are strategically significant and directly revenue-generating for Moscow, are not a sustained bone of contention for Washington. This disparity reinforces the perception that India is being singled out for political leverage while Western allies are afforded a wider berth in managing their own energy dependencies. If India were to sharply reduce its intake of Russian crude, the global oil market would tighten almost immediately. Brent prices could rise by three to seven dollars per barrel in the short term, with eight to twelve dollars possible if Russian redirection of cargoes falters and OPEC Plus delays the release of spare capacity. Domestically, India would face higher procurement costs for Middle Eastern grades, higher freight rates, and refinery yield penalties as plants shift away from Urals and ESPO blends. This would increase retail fuel prices or require fiscal subsidies—either of which would place upward pressure on inflation and reduce budgetary space for development spending. If China were to make a similar move, the market impact would be more severe. Chinese imports of Russian crude are in the range of 1.8 to 2.0 million barrels per day and are critical to Moscow's export revenues. A cut of this magnitude would strand more barrels for longer, as rerouting flows from China is more complex and costly than from India. Brent could rise by eight to fifteen dollars per barrel under typical market conditions and by as much as fifteen to twenty dollars if sanctions enforcement, insurance restrictions, or maritime bottlenecks reduce the flexibility of the shadow fleet. The impact would also be felt in refined product markets. China's large-scale refineries supply diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel to the region, so even modest run cuts would tighten global product balances and lift refining margins across Asia and Europe. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD A simultaneous reduction by both India and China would constitute the largest disruption to Russian oil flows since the imposition of Western sanctions in 2022. In this combined scenario, the market could face an effective supply outage of three million barrels per day or more. Brent prices could spike well beyond twenty dollars per barrel in the short term, with sustained double-digit increases for months if OPEC Plus maintained production restraint. Freight rates would surge, the Dubai–Brent spread would narrow sharply, and refined product cracks would remain elevated. The shock would also spill into LNG markets if China sought to replace crude with higher gas imports, potentially tightening European gas supply and driving up benchmark prices in both Asia and Europe. The geopolitical asymmetry in Washington's approach remains striking. China faces no comparable public censure or tariff penalties, despite its imports being of equal or greater significance to Russia's revenue stream. The United States has limited leverage over Beijing and therefore concentrates its pressure on New Delhi, assuming greater compliance. Accepting such treatment would set a precedent that could extend beyond energy policy, inviting similar interventions in other areas of strategic importance. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India's capacity to purchase discounted Russian oil is not merely a tactical advantage—it is a structural pillar of its macroeconomic stability. In 2024 alone, the discount on Russian grades saved India billions in procurement costs and helped keep consumer inflation within manageable bounds. Abandoning this under external pressure, particularly when major Western economies continue substantial trade with Russia, would be strategically counterproductive. The choice before New Delhi is about whether India will allow its energy policy to be dictated by another country's geopolitical agenda, even when that agenda is applied inconsistently across partners. A policy anchored in strategic autonomy means engaging with all partners, including the United States, from a position of equal respect, not asymmetric compliance. At a time when the global energy order is fragile, OPEC Plus is signalling potential supply increases, and markets are reacting sharply to diplomatic uncertainty, India should resist moves that compromise its economic and strategic flexibility. Energy security is a core national interest. Surrendering it under coercion risks weakening not only India's negotiating position today but also its sovereignty in the policy choices of tomorrow. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Aditya (X: @adityasinha004) writes on macroeconomic and geopolitical issues. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
Time of India
04-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India DESTROYS Trump, Exposes U.S.' ‘HYPOCRISY' Over Russian Oil Trade; Issues SHOCKING Warning
India has issued its strongest response yet to Donald Trump's tariff threat, slamming the US and EU for their 'hypocritical' criticism over Russian oil. The MEA said India turned to Moscow only after Western nations diverted supplies post-Ukraine war - and reminded that Europe still trades billions with Russia while blaming others. Read More
Shafaq News
26-07-2025
- Politics
- Shafaq News
Russia warns NATO: Kaliningrad attack means overwhelming response
Shafaq News – Moscow Russia warned on Saturday that any NATO military action against its Kaliningrad enclave would prompt an immediate and overwhelming response, potentially involving nuclear weapons. Speaking to RIA Novosti, Nikolai Patrushev, a top aide to President Vladimir Putin and chairman of Russia's Naval Collegium, affirmed that Moscow would employ 'all forces and means at its disposal' to defend Kaliningrad in line with its military doctrine. 'Russia has all the necessary military instruments to guarantee the region's security,' he emphasized. His comments followed recent remarks by General Christopher Donahoe, commander of US Army forces in Europe and Africa, who revealed that NATO had developed plans to rapidly neutralize Russian defenses in Kaliningrad as part of a broader effort to reinforce deterrence on its eastern border. NATO countries have been expanding ground capabilities and deepening military-industrial cooperation as part of the alliance's post-Ukraine war strategy to counter Russia, Donahoe outlined earlier this month. Patrushev accused the West of reviving historical aggression toward Russia, drawing parallels between current NATO policies and those once embraced by Germany's military elites. 'Today's Western strategists are voicing plans that would have been welcomed by the Prussian Junkers and their Nazi descendants—who rightly ended up on the dustbin of history,' he argued. 'I have no doubt that the same fate awaits modern warmongers.' Kaliningrad, a heavily militarized Russian exclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea, hosts Russia's Baltic Fleet and advanced missile systems. The territory has become a focal point in the growing standoff between Moscow and NATO since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Hindustan Times
25-07-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
India's maritime Amrit Kaal and the pursuit of energy autonomy
In an era when the tides of geopolitics shift with the winds of energy demand, India is charting a course that is both audacious and anchored in its civilisational wisdom. The sea, long a witness to India's trade, invasions, and pilgrimages, is now being reimagined—not as a passive frontier, but as a fulcrum of strategic power. Indian maritime(HT_PRINT) In 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled India's Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047, a landmark declaration that seeks to transform India into a global maritime power by the time it completes a century of independence. The vision is not a policy—it's a paradigm shift. It speaks of modernising ports, building shipyards, fostering maritime clusters, enhancing coastal infrastructure, and most crucially, expanding India's blue economy as a key pillar of national growth. What was once a forgotten shoreline is now a stage for national ambition. The phrase 'blue economy' is no longer a catchword—it has become India's compass for prosperity. With over 7,500 kilometres of coastline, more than 200 ports, and a young shipping sector waiting to be unshackled, the Maritime Amrit Kaal signals that India's true potential may lie not in its landlocked silos, but in its open seas. And nowhere is this more pressing than in the domain of energy security. India's continued import of Russian crude oil—approximately 1.9 million barrels per day in 2025—is not a political alignment but an economic imperative. With 85% of its oil demand met by imports, India has consistently chosen pragmatism over posturing. Russian oil, post-Ukraine war, has been available at heavily discounted prices. For a developing nation balancing inflation, welfare, and defence, the math is clear—even if the optics displease the West. Today, India imports oil from over 30 countries including Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, the United States, and Brazil. Its procurement framework includes both long-term sovereign agreements and nimble spot-market purchases. The flexibility is intentional—sovereignty must come not just from having oil, but from choosing where, how, and in what currency to buy it. With Donald Trump's return to the White House, the global sanctions regime has been reinvigorated. His administration has hinted at punitive measures for nations transacting with sanctioned entities, including Russia. While India has so far managed to navigate the diplomatic labyrinth skillfully, secondary sanctions on banking systems and shipping logistics remain an ever-present threat. Yet, India's posture is unapologetically sovereign. As Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri recently stated, India will always prioritise the needs of its citizens over external pressures. The principle is simple: energy security is national security. India's fortunes may be turning below its own waves. The Andaman Sea—a region more known for coral reefs than crude—has emerged as a potential game-changer. Early surveys suggest multiple 'Guyana-scale' discoveries, with over 10 billion barrels of crude possibly recoverable. If validated, this would not only slash India's import dependency, but also catapult it into the league of net exporters, thereby reshaping the regional energy architecture. Imagine India, by 2047, exporting refined crude through its own shipping lines, processed in floating refineries stationed off Port Blair, and traded in a multi-currency format bypassing the petrodollar cartel. That is not a dream. That is a plan. PM Modi's Maritime Amrit Kaal is not just a slogan—it's a strategy. It recognises that a maritime superpower is not defined by naval strength alone, but by shipping lanes, port security, export logistics, fisheries, offshore energy, underwater cables, and eco-marine resilience. The blueprint aims to double the contribution of the blue economy to India's GDP by 2047. That includes unlocking wealth beneath the sea, on the surface, and through global trade. The Chennai–Vladivostok Maritime Corridor is already operational, cutting delivery timelines by 40%. But more corridors are required—not just shipping lanes, but energy arteries. Here are some solutions for India's energy future:- Blue rupee - A non-dollar oil basket: Create a sovereign energy settlement platform using a mix of rupee, ruble, yuan, and dirham. India must institutionalise this to neutralise dollar volatility and sanction vulnerability. Sovereign oil tanker fleet: India must commission its own deep-sea oil tanker fleet under the tricolour, operated and insured by Indian entities. This shields oil logistics from foreign pressure. Floating oil refineries and storage units (forus): Deploy deep-sea refineries and oil depots off the Andaman coast to reduce dependency on inland pipelines, refine closer to source, and create floating strategic reserves. Tech-for-oil barter diplomacy: India can offer pharma, IT, satellite tech, and agri-solutions to oil-rich nations in exchange for long-term energy deals—building a modern barter system. Distributed SPR clusters: Move beyond underground reserves. Build regional, even mobile petroleum reserves along India's coastline and offshore points. This enhances resilience during crises. Indo-pacific energy diplomacy forum: Host an annual summit in Port Blair inviting Indo-Pacific nations to discuss oil corridors, maritime safety, and regional energy cooperation. Let India lead the discourse. A future anchored in the sea: India's path to energy sovereignty must now run through the sea. Whether it is tapping black gold under the Andaman seabed, building a fleet of sovereign tankers, or settling oil payments in the 'Blue Rupee', the ocean is India's new battlefield—not for war, but for wealth, security, and strategy. The Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 has laid the keel. Now it is for our institutions, innovators, and industrialists to hoist the sail. Because in a century marked by climate volatility, shifting alliances, and digital trade, India's future will not only be built on land—but forged upon water. 'He who commands the sea,' wrote Alfred Thayer Mahan, 'has command of the world.' In 2047, it may well be India holding the helm. This article is authored by Monica B. Sood, chairperson, National Unity & Security Council.
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First Post
23-07-2025
- Business
- First Post
How EU's new sanctions on Russia reveal West's colonial hangover
The new EU sanctions are not about hurting Russia anymore—they are about telling India how to behave read more The EU hasn't banned the purchase of Russian oil altogether. It has merely imposed a price cap, while pressuring others, like India, to stop refining or shipping that same oil. Image: REUTERS On July 18, the European Union (EU) imposed its 18th round of sanctions on Russia since the Ukraine war began. Among the fresh targets was an unexpected name: the Vadinar oil refinery in Gujarat, India, operated by Nayara Energy, in which Russian oil giant Rosneft holds a 49 per cent stake. Not stopping there, the EU went further to designate the Indian flag register itself, signalling that ships flying the Indian tricolour could be targeted if they are suspected of transporting Russian oil. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD And yet, in a peculiar twist of logic, the EU hasn't banned the purchase of Russian oil altogether. It has merely imposed a price cap 15 per cent below the prevailing market rate, allowing itself to continue energy imports from Russia while pressuring others, like India, to stop refining or shipping that same oil. What does this imply? The EU wants to buy Russian oil, just not if it's touched by Indian hands. This is not a geopolitical strategy grounded in consistency or fairness. It reeks of hypocrisy. The Sham of Sanction Morality Since the war in Ukraine broke out in 2022, Western capitals have scrambled to impose sanctions on Russia, penalising its banks, banning technology exports, freezing assets, and restricting energy exports. The intention was to cripple Russia's war machine by starving it of funds. However, as months passed, the West itself quietly resumed or continued many of these same transactions under different guises. India, like any rational state, saw an opportunity in discounted Russian crude. As Western buyers moved away (at least on paper), India ramped up its purchases, now exceeding one million barrels per day. This oil, heavily discounted, has helped New Delhi manage inflation, stabilise its energy supply, and ensure growth for 140 crore citizens. This pragmatism hasn't gone unnoticed in Washington and Brussels. But instead of acknowledging their own continued dependence on Russian energy, particularly natural gas, the West has targeted Indian refiners, shippers, and institutions. The new EU sanctions are not about hurting Russia anymore. They are about telling India how to behave. The underlying assumption is simple: the West sets the rules; the rest of the world must follow. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Energy for Whom? Let's dissect the numbers. In 2022 alone, the EU paid over $120 billion to Russia for fossil fuels. This included oil, natural gas, and coal. Compare this with India's total bill: about $50 billion—less than half of Europe's. Who, then, is fuelling the Russian economy? Spain and Belgium were among the top LNG importers from Russia. Germany, after shutting down pipeline imports post-Ukraine invasion, began receiving Russian LNG via its ports. Italy has also continued to buy Russian-origin oil, sometimes routed through third countries. Even the United States, which claims moral superiority, continues importing vital commodities from Russia. Case in point: uranium. Nearly 20 per cent of the uranium used in American nuclear power plants still comes from Russia. So much for an embargo. When national interests are involved, moral grandstanding takes a back seat. India Pushes Back India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has not taken this duplicity lying down. Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal responded firmly: 'Securing the energy needs of our people is understandably an overriding priority for us.' That's the crux. In an energy-starved country with burgeoning demand, fuel isn't just an economic issue; it's a developmental necessity. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, too, asserted that India is well-prepared to navigate sanctions, noting that India today buys oil from over 40 countries compared to just 27 in the past. Diversification, not dependency, has been India's guiding principle. Moreover, the MEA has expressed serious concern over reports of the United States planning a 500 per cent tariff on countries continuing to buy Russian oil, an undeclared threat aimed squarely at India. The very idea that a sovereign country could be penalised for making independent choices that benefit its people is absurd, but it reveals the West's real aim: control. Nato's Hypocrisy: The Case of Turkey If these sanctions were truly about punishing Russian partners, why is Turkey, another country buying Russian oil and even hosting the TurkStream gas pipeline, not under similar fire? Turkey, a NATO member, bought Russian S-400 missile systems in 2019. The US did impose minor sanctions on Turkish defence entities, but Ankara remains a Nato member and continues to transact with Moscow. The Western world makes exceptions for Turkey because of its strategic geography. India, by contrast, is expected to follow the West's orders or face consequences. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Sovereignty Is Not for Sale The EU's latest move sanctioning an Indian refinery and targeting Indian-flagged vessels isn't about stopping Russian oil. It's about sending a message to India: fall in line, or be punished. This is an affront to Indian sovereignty. The Vadinar refinery processes oil not just for India but for international clients, including European ones. Europe has happily purchased refined products from India, even when they originated from Russian crude. So Europe pays India for processed fuels while penalising India for importing the crude used to make them. It is hypocrisy of the highest order. India's position is clear. It is not buying oil to finance a war. It is buying oil to power its economy. And unless the West is willing to completely cut off its energy ties with Moscow, which it won't, it has no moral authority to lecture India. The Global South and the New Multipolarity This episode illustrates a broader truth: the era of unipolar Western dominance is fading. Countries like India, China, Brazil, and others in the Global South are asserting their economic sovereignty and refusing to toe Western lines blindly. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India has extended humanitarian aid to Ukraine, spoken to both Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, and consistently called for dialogue. But it has also made it clear: national interest comes first. We will not compromise our energy security because the West wants a moral trophy. This is not just an issue of oil. It is an issue of global fairness. The West cannot continue creating a two-tier system where its interests are sacrosanct and others' interests are expendable. A Test of Global Leadership If the EU and the US want to lead, they must do so by example. Leadership isn't about coercion. It's about consistency and integrity. You cannot ask India to stop doing what you continue to do behind closed doors. It is time to call out the Western bluff. The sanctions regime, as it stands, is neither effective nor equitable. It is simply a mechanism to enforce Western will under the guise of international morality. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India must stay the course—firm, unyielding, and self-assured. We don't owe anyone an explanation for prioritising our people's needs. We are not a vassal state. We are a rising power. And we will decide our path, not Washington, not Brussels. Conclusion The EU's 18th round of sanctions has exposed more than it has achieved. It has revealed the moral bankruptcy of a West that wants to have its oil and lecture others, too. For India, this is not just a diplomatic challenge. It is a test of resolve. We must never forget: the ultimate responsibility of any government is to its people. As long as Russian oil provides a reliable and affordable option, we should not be cowed into abandoning it. Let the West fix its reactions before pointing fingers. India stands for peace, yes. But India also stands for sovereignty. And that is not negotiable. The writer is a technocrat, political analyst, and author. He pens national, geopolitical, and social issues. His social media handle is @prosenjitnth. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views. 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