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Time Out
15 hours ago
- Entertainment
- Time Out
In Praise of Love
A theatre industry truism is that playwright Terence Rattigan – a titan of the mid-twentieth century British stage – had his career unfairly derailed by the Angry Young Men of the 1950s, and is surely due a revival soon. I'm skeptical about this, mostly because I remember people saying it for at least the last 15 years, a period in which I have seen an awful lot of Terence Rattigan plays, usually revived to great acclaim. The truth is that there was absolutely no way his work was ever again going to scale the insane success of his commercial heyday: he is the only playwright in history to have two plays notch up over 1,000 West End performances. But if his lifelong insistence on writing about posh people undoubtedly took him away from the post-War zeitgeist, he remained pretty damn popular in his later years. And this despite the fact he'd long moved away from the frothy populist comedies that gave him his mega hits, having shifted shape into something altogether more melancholic. That's a long way of introducing the Orange Tree's new production of his penultimate play In Praise of Love. You can see why it doesn't get revived much: it's a bittersweet chamber piece that feels like it is set in a very specific time and place, that involves posh people. It's also based on the lives of actor Rex Harrison and his third wife Kay Kendall, who are considerably less well known now than they were 50 years ago. But if you'd struggle to see it doing three years in the West End, Amelia Sears's revival is nonetheless exquisite. Its protagonists are Sebastian Cruttwell (Dominic Rowan) – champagne socialist manchild and superstar book critic (imagine!) – and his Estonian wife Lydia (Claire Price). As an intelligence officer in postwar Berlin, Sebastian married Lydia to get her out from behind the Iron Curtain, with little expectation that they'd stay together. But they have, rubbing along eccentrically for 25 years, still together in posh, rich Islington middle age, with a 20-year-old son Joey (Joe Edgar) who writes plays and is enthused by a somewhat resurgent Liberal Party. Production wise it's classy but not flashy: great accent work, a fine cast who don't feel they need to pounce on the laughs, beautiful lighting from Bethany Gupwell, Peter Butler's set dominated by a handsome liquor table so heavily used I started to feel pissed by osmosis. It plays out as a melancholy farce: Lydia has discovered she's dying, and doesn't want to tell Sebastian, reasoning he's too hapless to be able to cope with it; instead she confides in Mark (Daniel Abelson), her closest friend and a former lover. But Sebastian is less incompetent than he appears and has, in turn, been trying to protect Lydia from the knowledge of her condition. In Praise of Love is an elegant elegy for Rattigan's own war-time generation. Clearly Sebastian and Lydia's great days are behind them, and in a way everything since the war has been a long anticlimax for them. They were only thrown together by very specific circumstances and were never really suited to each other. They have come out of 25 years together scarred and bruised and awkward. And yet they love each other; they love Mark; they love Joey. It papers over all the cracks. It means they can forgive each other. But if the title suggests somebody is going to leap onto a table and make a big speech about how awesome love is, Rattigan isn't so vulgar as all that and is firmly in show-don't-tell mode. He's also on top form as a craftsman: In Praise of Love works because it's the definition of bittersweet, simultaneously a sad play and a happy one as it follows two people finally coming to understand each other even as they reach the end of their time. Of course Terence Rattigan is never again going to be anything like as popular as he was at his war-time peak, but in 2025 I don't think anyone seriously doubts his greatness – if they ever really did.
India Today
5 days ago
- Business
- India Today
As upbeat Indian economy closes gap with Japan, Germany, the real test will be at the podium
The arc of India's economic story is finally bending towards the inevitable. A country long seen as a sleeping giant of the global economy is now stirring into a position of hard power—measured not just in dreams and demographics, but in dollar of the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, India's nominal GDP in FY26 stands a chance to become $4.19 trillion and is likely to cross Japan's GDP. India is poised to not only beat Japan but also begin the chase to overtake Germany this gap between India and Germany—the long-reigning industrial behemoth of Europe, currently at $4.74 trillion—is just $550 billion, narrower than it has ever been. The writing is on the wall: India is on track to overtake Germany and become the third-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP within the next 12 to 24 shift is as much about momentum as it is about mathematics. Germany's economy is projected to grow at a sluggish nominal rate of 2.2 per cent in 2025 and 2.5 per cent in 2026, while India is clocking 9.8 per cent nominal growth in 2025 on the back of a 6.8 per cent real GDP increase and roughly 3 per cent inflation. Apply compound interest math to both trajectories, and the projection becomes clearer: by end-2026, India's GDP will likely cross $4.6 trillion to $4.7 trillion while Germany's would rise marginally to $4.86 trillion. If the rupee remains relatively stable against the US dollar—hovering around the Rs 85-87 mark—the tipping point arrives either in the final quarter of 2025 or early 2026. By 2027, India could be nearly $200–$250 billion shift would mark a fundamental reordering of global economic heft. It will be the first time since post-War Bretton Woods institutions began ranking global economies that India enters the top three in nominal GDP—behind only the United States and China. And unlike China, which surged into second place powered by export-led manufacturing and heavy state intervention, India's rise is driven by a cocktail of domestic consumption, digitisation, services exports and a slow but steady resurgence in numbers reveal a deeper story. In 2014, India's nominal GDP was $2 trillion, less than half of Germany's $4.2 trillion. Since then, India has doubled its GDP while Germany has added just $500 billion. In dollar terms, India has added more to global GDP than any European economy in the last decade, and it has done so despite multiple global headwinds: Covid-19, the energy crisis, rising interest rates and the reordering of global supply chains of that growth has been fuelled by domestic factors. India's tax-to-GDP ratio has improved marginally, from 10.1 per cent in FY15 to over 11.3 per cent in FY24. GST collections have stabilised above Rs 1.6 lakh crore per month, with e-invoicing and compliance measures increasing formalisation. The government's capex push—Rs 11.1 lakh crore in FY25, up nearly 27 per cent year on year—is reshaping India's infrastructure backbone. The railways, roads and airports pipeline is not just growing, it is catalysing private the services sector, especially IT and business process outsourcing, continues to deliver. India exported over $325 billion in services in FY24—up from $213 billion in FY19. Software exports alone are touching $180 billion. Combine this with the rise in remittances—over $125 billion annually, the highest in the world—and you have a robust current account buffer, despite being a net importer of by contrast, is facing structural stagnation. Once the world's model exporter, it is now grappling with a declining industrial base, skyrocketing energy costs, and negative demographics. Its population has begun to shrink, with a median age of 47 and a birth rate of just 1.53 per woman. Contrast that with India's median age of 28.4, a fertility rate of 2.0, and an expected workforce addition of 100 million people by growth engine—export-led manufacturing—is faltering. Its trade surplus has fallen from over 8 per cent of GDP in 2015 to just 3.3 per cent in 2024. The war in Ukraine and the resulting cutoff from cheap Russian gas has devastated its energy-intensive industries—chemical plants, auto manufacturing and heavy engineering. BASF is downsizing, Volkswagen is facing electric vehicle competition from China, and industrial production is yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. As of Q1 2025, Germany narrowly avoided a recession, posting just 0.2 per cent real challenge now is not whether it can cross Germany—it almost certainly will. The real question is: can it hold the position? Can it use its growing economic weight to build enduring competitiveness, create good jobs and avoid the middle-income trap?'Crossing Japan and later Germany will be symbolic, but what truly matters is whether this growth empowers India's masses. We must build self-reliant capabilities in manufacturing, reduce our import dependence and ensure that economic expansion translates into jobs and dignity for every Indian,' said Dr Ashwani Mahajan, economist and national co-convenor of the Swadeshi Jagran Manch, an affiliate of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), in a conversation with INDIA pitfalls are many. First is the jobs crisis. While India is growing, the employment elasticity of that growth is worryingly low. The Periodic Labour Force Survey still shows unemployment among urban youth in double digits. The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has hovered around 16-17 per cent for the last two decades. The government's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes aim to change that, but so far, only a few sectors—mobile phones, electronics and solar modules—have shown scale India to create the 10 million jobs a year it needs, manufacturing has to expand at a consistent 9-10 per cent clip for the next there's the looming risk of fiscal slippage. India's combined (Centre + states) fiscal deficit remains at around 8.9 per cent of GDP in FY24, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 82 per cent. Though the Centre is committed to reducing its fiscal deficit to below 4.5 per cent by FY26, any populist deviation—particularly in light of the 2029 general elections—could unnerve investors. India needs to maintain macroeconomic discipline if it wants to keep its sovereign rating above the investment grade India's trade deficit—over $245 billion in FY24—remains a vulnerability. While service exports and remittances help balance the current account, any spike in crude oil prices or capital outflows due to global rate hikes could destabilise the rupee. Even a 5 per cent depreciation could erase gains in nominal GDP rankings, given the dollar-denominated nature of global comparisons. The rupee-dollar equation will be a silent but powerful variable in this rupee, in fact, has depreciated from Rs 62 per dollar in 2014 to Rs 85-87 in 2025. If that trend continues unchecked, even high nominal growth may not reflect in dollar terms. Therefore, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) management of external balances, forex reserves (now at $645 billion), and inflation expectations will remain regulatory and institutional bottlenecks also loom large. Despite advances in ease of doing business, issues like contract enforcement, land acquisition and complex tax compliance continue to deter investors. India ranks 163rd in the world in contract enforcement and still struggles to attract global FDI in large-scale manufacturing beyond electronics and automobiles. Germany, for all its problems, still ranks among the world's top five destinations for FDI per capita due to its policy certainty, skilled labour and logistics infrastructure.'India's rise to becoming the third-largest economy must be backed by deep structural reforms. We need to strengthen our fiscal fundamentals, deepen financial inclusion and invest in long-term capital formation. Without strong institutions and sound macroeconomic management, even rapid growth can become fragile,' explains Dr Charan Singh, chairman of the EGROW Foundation and former chairman, Punjab & Sindh truly consolidate its position in the top three, India must invest heavily in human capital. As of 2023, India spends just 2.9 per cent of GDP on education and 2.1 per cent on healthcare—far below the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) average. Without a robust skills and social safety net ecosystem, the demographic dividend could easily turn into a demographic the upside is enormous. India is already the world's fastest-growing major economy. It has more internet users than the US and EU combined. It is home to 100-plus unicorns, over 800 million UPI users, and a digital public infrastructure that the World Bank calls a 'global public good'. If India can plug its institutional gaps and build trust-based regulation, it could become the growth engine of the this: by 2030, if India sustains an 8 per cent nominal GDP growth rate and the rupee stabilises, its economy will cross $6.8 trillion–$7 trillion. Japan, already behind India at $4.11 trillion and barely growing due to an ageing population and persistent deflationary pressures, is unlikely to regain its position. Germany, growing at 2.5 per cent, would hover around $5.3 trillion. The lead would be decisive—India would not just have overtaken Germany and Japan but would firmly establish itself as the world's third-largest economy and second-largest in Asia, behind only course, these are projections, not inevitabilities. But what is now certain is that India's climb is no longer a dream deferred—it is a milestone imminent. The baton is passing. From Berlin to New Delhi. From the Old World to the New South. The world's third-largest economy could ultimately be a democracy of 1.4 billion, not an industrial giant of 84 million. The race to be number three is hot. The real test will begin at the to India Today MagazineMust Watch
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Business Standard
05-05-2025
- Politics
- Business Standard
The end of Anglo-Americanism: Voters in Australia, Canada reject Trumpism
Over the past few days, Canada and Australia have held national elections. And in both, the centre-left party triumphed over right-wing challengers, whom the electorate identified with Trumpism Business Standard Editorial Comment Mumbai Listen to This Article American President Donald Trump's first months in the White House have been remarkably disruptive for the global order. Alongside a general abandonment of the United States' (US') commitment to multilateralism, much attention has been paid to the stresses that his foreign policy has introduced into the transatlantic alliance with Western Europe — an alliance that has long been the lynchpin of the post-War liberal paradigm. The possible abandonment of Taiwan in the face of aggression from the mainland, as well as increasing pressure on treaty allies of the US in South Korea and Japan, is also noteworthy. Yet it is
Reuters
01-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Iran had imperial ambitions in Syria. Secret embassy papers show why it failed
DAMASCUS - Iran had a grand plan for Syria – taken right from the playbook of a country it considers its arch-enemy. Just as the United States solidified its global dominance by investing billions in rebuilding Europe after the Second World War, Iran would do the same in the Middle East by reconstructing a war-ravaged Syria. The ambitious program, outlined in a 33-page official Iranian study, makes several references to 'The Marshall Plan,' America's blueprint for resurrecting post-War Europe. The U.S. strategy succeeded: It made Europe 'reliant on America,' a presentation accompanying the study says, by 'creating economic, political and socio-cultural dependence.' The document, dated May 2022 and authored by an Iranian economic-policy unit stationed in Syria, was found by Reuters reporters in Iran's looted Damascus embassy when they visited the building in December. It was among hundreds of other papers they uncovered there and at other locations around the capital – letters, contracts and infrastructure plans – that reveal how Iran planned to recoup the billions it spent saving President Bashar al-Assad during the country's long-running civil war. The Syria-strategy document envisions building an economic empire, while also deepening influence over Iran's ally. 'A $400 billion opportunity,' reads one bullet point in the study. These imperial hopes were crushed when rebels hostile to Iran toppled Assad in December. The deposed dictator fled for Russia. Iran's paramilitaries, diplomats and companies beat their own hasty exit. Its embassy in Damascus was ransacked by Syrians celebrating Assad's demise. The building was littered with documents highlighting the challenges facing Iranian investors. The documents and months of reporting reveal new insight into the doomed effort to turn Syria into a lucrative satellite state. Reuters interviewed a dozen Iranian and Syrian businessmen, investigated the web of Iranian companies navigating the gray zones of sanctions, and visited some of Iran's abandoned investments, which included religious sites, factories, military installations and more. Those investments were stymied by militant attacks, local corruption, and Western sanctions and bombing runs. Among the investments was a €411 million power plant in coastal Latakia being built by an Iranian engineering firm. It stands idle. An oil extraction project is abandoned in Syria's eastern desert. A $26 million Euphrates River rail bridge built by an Iranian charity linked to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei collapsed under a U.S. coalition airstrike years ago, and was neither repaired nor fully paid for. The roughly 40 projects in the abandoned embassy files represent a fraction of Iran's overall investment. But in this assortment alone, Reuters found that Syria's outstanding debts to Iranian companies toward the end of the war amounted to at least $178 million. Former Iranian lawmakers have publicly estimated the total debt of Assad's government to Iran at more than $30 billion. Hassan Shakhesi, a private Iranian trader, lost €16 million in vehicle parts he shipped to Syria's Latakia port just before Assad fled. 'I'd set up an office and home in Syria. That's gone,' said Shakhesi. He said he was never paid for the goods, which disappeared. 'I hope Iran's long history with Syria isn't just wiped out. I'm now having to look at business elsewhere.' Ultimately, Iran's hopes to emulate the Marshall Plan and build an economic empire encompassing Syria went more the way of America's debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan. Early intervention in Syria's civil war on the side of Assad deepened Iran's influence over this gateway to the Mediterranean Sea. The story of the squandered investments reveals the financial risk that brought, and how the mutual reliance of the pariah governments of Syria and Iran hurt both. For Iran's rulers, Assad's fall and the collapse of their Syria plans come at a precarious time. They have been weakened by Israel's decimation of the Islamic Republic's key proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. They are under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to negotiate a deal that could neuter Iran's nuclear program, or face possible military action if they balk. Iran's regional rivals, including Turkey and Israel, are rushing to fill the vacuum left by its departure. The nascent Syrian government, for its part, has to contend with multiple frozen infrastructure projects as it tries to rebuild the war-ravaged country. The Syrian people have a wound caused by Iran, and we need a lot of time to heal Reuters reporters discovered an array of documents as they visited Iran's centers of soft power in Syria after Assad's fall – diplomatic, economic and cultural offices. They photographed nearly 2,000 of the records, including trade contracts, economic plans and official cables, and left them where found. Reporters then used artificial intelligence, including the AI legal assistant CoCounsel owned by Thomson Reuters, to summarize and analyze the texts. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in December he expected the new Syrian leadership to honor the country's obligations. But it's not a priority for the new government, led by a former rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, that fought Assad and his Iranian backers. Iranian government officials did not respond to requests for comment about the findings by Reuters. 'The Syrian people have a wound caused by Iran, and we need a lot of time to heal,' the new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, said in an interview in December. Neither al-Sharaa nor other officials from Syria's new government responded to requests for comment from Reuters about Iran's role in the fallen regime. Sharaa's HTS, initially an offshoot of Al Qaeda, severed those ties years ago and says it wants to build an inclusive and democratic Syria. Some Syrians, especially non-Sunni minorities, fear it retains the jihadist goal of establishing an Islamic government. For most Syrians, the departure of Assad and the Iran-backed militias was cause to celebrate. Those Syrians who worked with Iranians have mixed feelings, however, about the exodus of Iranian business, which has left many of them without an income. Reuters journalists visited the Iranian embassy in Damascus soon after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. It had been trashed and the floors were scattered with documents. 'Iran was here, that was just the reality, and I made a living from it for a while,' said a Syrian engineer who worked on the idled Latakia power plant. The engineer asked not to be named for fear of reprisals for working for an Iranian company, after a spate of revenge killings last month against Syrians associated with the old regime. He said the Latakia project was hobbled by financial problems, Syrian corruption and underqualified workers from Iran, but that once completed would have boosted Syria's struggling grid. 'The power plant was something for the future of Syria,' he said. IRAN'S MAN IN SYRIA The man tasked with executing Iran's economic plans in Syria was a bearded construction manager from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps named Abbas Akbari. He was promoted with fanfare in March 2022 to lead a unit called the Headquarters for Developing Economic Relations of Iran and Syria. Its task was to boost trade and recoup Iran's investment. His team produced the study that held up the Marshall Plan as a model. Akbari enlisted comrades in the Revolutionary Guards, an elite branch of Iran's military, to help with logistics on civilian projects. Reuters found letters signed by Akbari in Iran's looted embassy. The documents include details of projects he supported and the money spent. Near the scattered papers was a vault and a pack of C4 explosives discovered by fighters who were guarding the building. Akbari did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. Iran's foray into Syria began long before Akbari's arrival. Mapna Group, an Iranian infrastructure conglomerate that hired the Syrian engineer who worked on the Latakia project, won its first major contract in 2008 to expand a power plant near Damascus. That was soon followed by a second contract to build another plant near the city of Homs. The deals were part of a growing Iranian investment in Syria in the years ahead of the 2011 uprising against Assad, as U.S. sanctions shut off both countries to the West. They were the fruit of a relationship dating back to the Iranian revolution of 1979, which led to the overthrow of the Shah and the establishment of the Islamic Republic. Assad's father, President Hafez al-Assad, was the first Arab leader to recognise the republic and helped arm Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's fledgling Shi'ite Muslim theocracy in its 1980s war with Iraq. They fought Israel during the Lebanese civil war – Iran via its Hezbollah proxy – and later sent fighters and weapons to resist the American occupation of Iraq after 2003. Iran's political investments in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon paid off for years. Like Iran, Iraq and Lebanon have significant populations of Shi'ite Muslims, and Shi'ite paramilitaries nurtured by the Revolutionary Guards dominated successive governments in Baghdad and Beirut. Syria became the key transit route for weapons and personnel across the 'Axis of Resistance,' the name Iran gives to the armed groups and states it supports against Israel and the West. Syria also held religious importance for Iran, which sent hundreds of thousands of pilgrims each year to visit the Sayyeda Zeinab shrine, the mausoleum of the Prophet Mohammed's granddaughter, situated just south of Damascus. Economic ties took off in the mid-2000s, around the time Mapna got its first contracts. But then came the Syrian uprising against Assad in 2011, part of the wave of Arab Spring uprisings. The rebellion threatened a range of Iranian military, political, religious and, increasingly, economic interests. The Sayyida Zaynab shrine is visible through a window at a hotel once occupied by Iranian workers. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky A visit by Reuters journalists to the Sayyeda Zeinab shrine just south of Damascus brought new revelations about Iran's influence in Syria. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians rose up against the Assad government, which he ruled through an elite of the Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam. His crackdown turned the rebellion into an armed insurgency dominated by Sunni Islamist groups. The civil war caused ethno-religious rifts, bringing chaos to a country home to Sunnis, Muslims, Christians, Alawites, Kurds and others, with minorities increasingly fearful of a sectarian rebellion. Shi'ite Iran – along with Assad's other main backer, Russia – came to Assad's aid, sending arms and manpower. Iran also sent engineers and entrepreneurs. 'NEVER LEFT ITS BROTHERS ALONE' In late December 2011, the reality of operating in wartime Syria hit Mapna. Syrian rebels kidnapped seven Iranians working on the Jandar power plant near Homs, Iranian state news reported. Two were killed, according to a 2018 letter from the company to Syria's electricity minister seen by Reuters. But the strife deepened Mapna's investment, bringing it new contracts to repair Syria's battle-damaged power grid, which by 2015 was producing less than half of pre-war output. The most ambitious deal was to build the Latakia plant. The projects were troubled and costly from the outset, according to letters from the company seen by Reuters, and the Syrian engineer who worked at Latakia. 'Latakia was supposed to take 20 months, starting around 2018,' he said. 'Now it's frozen.' Mapna announced in November 2024, a month before Assad's ouster, that it was about halfway through construction. The engineer said Syria insisted on using a subcontractor with links to the Assad family that hired largely unqualified builders and engineers. He said Mapna's own staff included capable workers, and some who appeared to have got their jobs through Iranian connections. 'There were always financial issues: delayed payments between the governments, plus currency fluctuations,' he said. The engineer's account of payment issues and Syrian bureaucracy was corroborated by letters in the embassy, which also show how Mapna's own capital was at risk. A 2017 letter from the company to the Iranian ambassador said that Syria was changing the terms of finalized deals, leaving Mapna to finance the Latakia power plant entirely, as well as another project initially agreed with 60% Mapna financing. A year later, the company president complained in a letter to Syria's electricity minister that the government had ignored an offer to ship parts for an Aleppo plant and dragged its feet on approving other contracts with Mapna, which had incurred tens of millions of euros in costs. The thermal power plant in Aleppo was damaged in the civil war and never fully repaired. REUTERS/Mahmoud Hassano 'Mapna Group has never left its brothers alone in the Ministry of Electricity of Syria … during seven years of civil wars while all foreign companies left,' is how Mapna President Abbas Aliabadi, now Iran's energy minister, ended his frustrated 2018 letter. The Energy Ministry, Aliabadi and Mapna employees and managers contacted by Reuters did not respond to requests for comment. The company has not publicly announced how much it spent in Syria or whether payments were settled. The company sometimes received logistical help from Akbari, the Revolutionary Guards construction manager, internal letters show. This included asking IRGC units to allocate fuel for Mapna. Mapna had partially repaired the Aleppo thermal plant by the summer of 2022. Assad triumphantly toured the plant in a photo op. Other projects were still in the works. The Jandar plant, damaged during fighting, operates at reduced capacity. The Syrian engineer left the Latakia project in 2021 because he refused to work for the Assad-linked Syrian subcontractor because of the corruption, and viewed the project as doomed. 'I've struggled to find permanent work since then,' he said. A member of the minority Alawite sect, he sheltered at home while the country plunged into new sectarian violence last month. SANCTIONS AND DEBT Mapna's security and financial troubles were replicated across a host of other Iranian companies in Syria. Copper World, a private Tehran-based electrical wiring firm, won a tender to supply a Syrian cable company just before the war. When fighting began, the investment looked shaky. Rebels stole a cargo worth millions of dollars in Syria in 2012, a person with knowledge of the contracts told Reuters. Copper World pushed ahead in Syria because sanctions closed off other markets, the source said. Copper World claimed damages through Syrian courts and recovered some of the lost exports. The rest, due from the Syrian national insurance company, was never paid. The source said the Syrian cable company demanded $50,000 as a condition for awarding Copper World a new contract – while doing the same deal with a rival Egyptian company. The two companies compared notes and discovered what was happening. Reuters could not determine how the deal was finalized. On another occasion, a Syrian money-transfer company tasked with transmitting funds to Copper World used old rates for payments as the Syrian pound plummeted, leaving Copper World short. 'Bank transfers and currency fluctuations killed that business,' the source said. A Copper World letter at the Iranian embassy sought Akbari's help with its financial difficulties in Syria. The letter asked him to lobby the Syrian Central Bank and money-transfer company to pay $2.4 million due to Copper World. A $26 million Euphrates River rail bridge built by an Iranian charity collapsed under a U.S. coalition airstrike years ago. Satellite images and video of the bridge were verified by Reuters. A separate table of projects, outstanding payments and extra costs, annotated by Iranian officials, listed dozens of delays and payment issues for other firms. Yet throughout the ordeals of Mapna, Copper World and others, Iran doubled down on its Syrian investment. Iran signed a 2011 free trade deal with Syria, days before the Mapna kidnappings, focusing on industry, mining and agriculture. The government in Tehran issued Damascus a credit line worth $3.6 billion in 2013, and a second worth $1 billion in 2015, the first of a series of major loans to help the Syrian state pay for imports, including oil. The United Nations most recently estimated Iran to be spending $6 billion a year in Syria by 2015. Iran has called estimates of its spending in Syria exaggerated, but not provided an official figure. Iran and Syria signed a series of agreements between 2015 and 2020 aimed at Tehran recovering its debts. They included giving Iran land for farming, a licence to become a mobile phone operator, housing projects, phosphate mining rights and oil exploration contracts. Outside a hotel frequented by Iranians during the rule of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky A poster depicting late Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani, late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, lies on the ground at a hotel used by Iranians near Syria's Sayyida Zaynab shrine. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky Reuters reporting found that several of those projects ran into similar difficulties related to sanctions, manpower and security with little income to show for their troubles. None of the companies involved responded to requests for comment. Iran was meanwhile losing deals to other countries. Akbari's Headquarters for Economic Development reported in its study that Syria's other big ally, Russia, had focused on 'profitable sectors' in the country such as oil and gas. And seven months after agreeing that Iran could manage the port of Latakia, Syria renewed the lease of a French company instead. 'IDENTIFY THE SYRIAN MAFIAS' Akbari and his bosses in Tehran were acutely aware of how little their Syria investment had yielded by the time the Iranian government announced his new post leading the development agency in 2022. The study that references the Marshall Plan was produced on Akbari's watch. It lists a litany of troubles Iran endured in Syria – banking and transport problems, 'lack of security' and red tape. Related Content Minutes to leave: Syria's Alawites evicted from private homes at gunpoint Operation Assad: the air mission to smuggle the Syrian despot's valuables 'Pray for us. They've arrived': How Syria descended into revenge bloodshed It also mentions USAID, the American aid agency that Trump has been defunding. Like the Marshall Plan, the Iranians viewed USAID as a highly effective vehicle for establishing American economic and soft power – a 'nation building' model they wanted to adopt in Syria. It would help Iran 'achieve goals such as increasing regional security,' as well as 'neutralize' U.S. sanctions, the study said. Without mentioning other countries in detail, it said Syria was on the 'front line' of Iran's battle with Israel, and a key link with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's regional soft power projects include charity and construction work in Iraq and funding for seminaries in Lebanon. This spending is an increasing source of criticism at home by Iranians reeling from its ailing economy. By the time Akbari started his job, Assad had largely beaten back the uprising with Iranian and Russian help. Iran had reaped some strategic rewards, deepening its influence in the Syrian military, developing local militias alongside those it imported into Syria, and deploying paramilitaries in key centers like Damascus, Sayyeda Zeinab and Aleppo. But Iranian businesses were losing interest. After fighting subsided, just 11 Iran-linked companies registered annually in Syria in 2022 and 2023, barely more than during the worst years of the civil war, according to an analysis by the Syrian political economist Karam Shaar shared with Reuters. 'Syrian banks' failure to pay Iranian companies is discouraging investment,' a letter from Akbari's agency to Iran's Syria ambassador read, listing a litany of complaints. The agency blamed 'complicated Syrian bureaucracy.' A Powerpoint presentation that lay next to the agency's study at Iran's embassy suggested a workaround: 'becoming familiar with the key stakeholders and economic and business mafias' of Syria. A printout of internal meeting notes included a photo of Abbas Akbari, on the left, with Syria's industry minister at an Aleppo hotel. The agency assessed that sanctions would still stop Syria from doing business with the West, making Iran one of its few options. Others were Arab states and Turkey, which had rekindled relations with Assad after years backing his opposition. Akbari pressed on. In a photo accompanying a printout of internal meeting minutes, he sits smiling opposite Syria's industry minister at an Aleppo hotel. 'Mr. Akbari asked the Syrian side to identify incomplete factories' for Iranian companies to build, the minutes read. Iran signed new agreements with Syria in 2023 and 2024 that included establishing a joint bank, zero tariff trade, and a second attempt at setting up transactions using local currencies – a move that would avoid sanctions by cutting use of U.S. dollars. But time would soon run out on Akbari and his mission. ROOT AND BRANCH REVERSAL The scattered papers, belongings and military hardware left around the Iranian embassy in Damascus, a hotel for Iranian engineers and workers adjoining the Sayyeda Zeinab shrine, and a nearby cultural center, are a mix of contracts, plans, proselytising and military-industrial logistics. Next to tomes on Islamic jurisprudence and a 'knowing Shi'ism' book at the cultural center are applications by Iranian women for membership of Iran's Basij paramilitary organisation. Among abandoned plans for shrine decorations, an Iranian worker at the nearby hotel was teaching himself Arabic in his personal notebook. Despite the many problems, Iran was still pouring money into the upkeep of the Sayyeda Zeinab shrine. It was providing stipends for Iranian families who had moved to the area – according to Iranian documents seen at Sayyeda Zeinab – and maintaining militias nearby. The fall of Assad last year brought down the curtain on Akbari's Syria plan. By then, Israel had all but crushed Iran's Axis of Resistance, killing the leadership of Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and key IRGC commanders in Syria. An Israeli strike in April 2024 flattened the consulate building attached to the Damascus embassy, leaving one less site for Syrians to pillage when Iranian embassy staff fled. Abu Ghassan, a fighter for the new Syrian government, guarded the embassy in the days after Assad fell. He said he and his comrades found a pack of explosives hidden in a corridor and some empty ammunition boxes. 'Locals keep coming in looking for money or gold,' he said. 'There's nothing of value left.' The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. Additional reporting by Maggie Michael, Feras Dalatey and Michelle Nichols. Photos by Amr Alfiky. Photo editing by Simon Newman. Graphics by Feilding Cage. Video editing by Mía Womersley, Lauren Roback and Holly Murtha. Design by Catherine Tai. Edited by Lori Hinnant. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab Suggested Topics: Investigates John Davison Thomson Reuters Foreign correspondent specialized in the Middle East. John ran the Reuters Baghdad and Cairo bureaus, covered the Syrian war based out of Beirut and has reported across the region. He has covered conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Gaza, unrest in Egypt, the West Bank and Lebanon, and investigated the devastating power struggles between by rival armed groups, regional states and foreign powers. Reade Levinson Thomson Reuters Investigative reporter specializing in using data analysis and open source materials to break news and expose wrongdoing. Written about police violence and failings of the U.S. justice system; business interests of Myanmar military family members; and the largely unregulated U.S. trade in donated human bodies. Honors include a Loeb Award, Scripps Howard Award, Shadid Award for Journalism Ethics and Goldsmith Prize finalist, among others.
Telegraph
03-04-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Trump has unleashed utter havoc on the world, and Britain will not be spared
It is a charming self-deception to imagine Britain has been spared the worst because it was hit only with a 10pc tariff, forgetting the 25pc hit on steel and cars. It is beyond delusional to progress from that false assumption to think that Britain might even profit positively from Trump's near-complete destruction of the post-War trading and security system. This country has chosen to be an independent trading nation outside any protectionist bloc, and I voted for this in the halcyon pre-Trumpian world of June 2016. But that renders it a little rowing boat bobbing about on the rough oceans, hyper-dependent on stable trade and finance under the ethos of the World Trade Organisation – now dead. The greater damage to the British economy comes from the recessionary shock to Europe, and from the drastic spillovers of global retaliation, not from the direct tariff hit. It is compounded by the diversion of exports from other countries shut out of the US, whether Chinese rebar steel, or EU-made cars. British service exports to the US may be shielded but the business model of the services industry is not, since much of its revenue comes from lubricating world trade and investment. Twenty countries have free trade agreements (FTAs) with the US. That made no difference when Trump attacked: 25pc for Korea; 24pc for Japan (partial trade deal). He has brutalised Canada and Mexico even though they are part of the North American pact (USMCA) that he negotiated himself. Nothing he signs is worth the paper it is written on. Sir Keir Starmer is condemned to stay calm and keep pushing for a UK-US trade deal. But have no illusions even if he succeeds: any deal will be hostage to wild mood swings in the White House, weaponised at a later date to force the Maga agenda upon us or to yield to the cultural nihilism of America's tech brotherhood. Trump may well use it to try to turn back the clock and force the UK to recarbonise the economy. It would be nice to think that the UK could have it both ways, securing an Atlantic trade deal and becoming a manufacturing platform for EU companies seeking tariff-free access into the US market. But does anybody think that either Washington or Brussels will tolerate this for long? Will the Commission meekly roll over the Brexit trade deal (TCA) next year if the UK has a sweetheart accord with the US, secured by abandoning trade solidarity and bowing to every Trumpian demand?
