Trump has unleashed utter havoc on the world, and Britain will not be spared
It is a charming self-deception to imagine Britain has been spared the worst because it was hit only with a 10pc tariff, forgetting the 25pc hit on steel and cars.
It is beyond delusional to progress from that false assumption to think that Britain might even profit positively from Trump's near-complete destruction of the post-War trading and security system.
This country has chosen to be an independent trading nation outside any protectionist bloc, and I voted for this in the halcyon pre-Trumpian world of June 2016. But that renders it a little rowing boat bobbing about on the rough oceans, hyper-dependent on stable trade and finance under the ethos of the World Trade Organisation – now dead.
The greater damage to the British economy comes from the recessionary shock to Europe, and from the drastic spillovers of global retaliation, not from the direct tariff hit. It is compounded by the diversion of exports from other countries shut out of the US, whether Chinese rebar steel, or EU-made cars.
British service exports to the US may be shielded but the business model of the services industry is not, since much of its revenue comes from lubricating world trade and investment.
Twenty countries have free trade agreements (FTAs) with the US. That made no difference when Trump attacked: 25pc for Korea; 24pc for Japan (partial trade deal). He has brutalised Canada and Mexico even though they are part of the North American pact (USMCA) that he negotiated himself. Nothing he signs is worth the paper it is written on.
Sir Keir Starmer is condemned to stay calm and keep pushing for a UK-US trade deal. But have no illusions even if he succeeds: any deal will be hostage to wild mood swings in the White House, weaponised at a later date to force the Maga agenda upon us or to yield to the cultural nihilism of America's tech brotherhood.
Trump may well use it to try to turn back the clock and force the UK to recarbonise the economy.
It would be nice to think that the UK could have it both ways, securing an Atlantic trade deal and becoming a manufacturing platform for EU companies seeking tariff-free access into the US market. But does anybody think that either Washington or Brussels will tolerate this for long?
Will the Commission meekly roll over the Brexit trade deal (TCA) next year if the UK has a sweetheart accord with the US, secured by abandoning trade solidarity and bowing to every Trumpian demand?
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