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Mail & Guardian
4 days ago
- Business
- Mail & Guardian
Ample grain and oilseed harvest in SA bodes well for food price inflation
Agriculture in the country is experiencing a recovery season for its grain and oilseed production, although some areas may have quality problems Glimpses of positivity often arise from the agricultural data and are worth highlighting. These do not suggest that all is well with South Africa's agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal diseases in cattle farming and the poultry industry. But, if one is in horticulture or field crop production, the operating conditions are more favourable. The message I continue to receive from farmers of various fruits, vegetables, grains and oilseeds, as well as other field crops, suggests a promising agricultural season. The yields are up from last year's drought. For a moment, I was worried that the excessive rains throughout April would cause quality damage to some crops. At the start of the harvest season, particularly in some grains, some farmers also had this concern. But things seem to have changed quite significantly. I've heard that the quality of crops, especially soybeans, is not as bad as we anticipated, although there are areas with problems. Nevertheless, what is encouraging is seeing a continuous upward revision of the harvest. For example, on 27 June, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its fifth production estimate for the 2024-25 season, lifting the expected harvest. While there are five more estimates to come in the following months, when we reach the fifth estimate, we generally have more confidence in the size of the crop, as well as its quality, because some areas would have delivered a sizable share of their crop to the silos. The CEC raised South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds production by 3% from the May 2025 estimate to 18.43 million tonnes. This represents a 19% increase from the previous season. A closer look at the data shows that the monthly upward revisions were primarily in maize (+1%), soybeans (+14%) and dry beans (+4%). The other crops were roughly unchanged from the previous month. More specifically, the maize harvest is now forecast at 14.78 million tonnes, which is 15% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season. Of these 14.78 million tonnes, about 7.65 million tonnes is white maize, and 7.13 million tonnes is yellow maize. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa's annual maize needs of about 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize. Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.65 million tonnes, representing a 43% year-over-year increase. The annual uptick is primarily because of improved yields resulting from favourable rainfall. A significant portion of the soybean crop has already been delivered to commercial silos, and the quality is generally encouraging. Importantly, this is the second-largest harvest on record, and it is not even finished. The record harvest of 2.77 million tonnes was recorded in the 2022-23 production season. This ample harvest also means South Africa will remain a net exporter of soybeans and products. We are far from the time when we were a net importer of soybean products for animal feed, mainly oilcake. We are now in a net exporter position. Sunflower seeds are up 15% from the previous season and are estimated at 727.800 tonnes. The groundnut harvest is estimated at 63.510 tonnes (up 22% year-on-year), sorghum production is estimated at 137.970 tonnes (up 41% year-on-year), and the dry beans harvest is at 74.299 tonnes (up 47% year-on-year). The base effects and favourable agricultural conditions boosted the yields. We see the benefit of the solid harvest in generally softening commodity prices, which are now at lower levels than last year, boding well for the moderating food price inflation for the year. The benefits of these ample harvests may be more evident in the inflation data in the second half of the year. Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
CNA
19-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
No poultry products imported from bird flu-hit establishment in Brazil, say Singapore authorities
SINGAPORE: Singapore does not import poultry or poultry products from the establishment affected by a bird flu outbreak in Brazil, said the Singapore Food Agency (SFA) and the Animal & Veterinary Service (AVS) in a joint statement on Monday (May 19). This comes after Brazil, the world's largest chicken exporter, confirmed its first outbreak of bird flu on a poultry farm, triggering suspension of imports of poultry meat from the area by Japan and and a countrywide trade ban of chicken imports by top buyer China. Singapore also has bird flu "regionalisation arrangements" with Brazil, said SFA and AVS. "Under such arrangements, in response to food safety concerns, imports from affected establishments and those within a buffer zone may be suspended while those imports from unaffected areas outside the buffer zone can continue." The authorities added that Singapore's overall supply of poultry is "currently stable", but that the country can expect supply fluctuations from time to time due to disease outbreaks and supply disruptions. Brazil is one of Singapore's top sources of poultry, but Singapore's supply is also "well-diversified" with 30 accredited sources, including countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Denmark and Malaysia, said the authorities. Singapore imports 48 per cent of poultry from the South American country, according to figures from 2021. SFA also works with the industry to accredit new poultry sources that meet Singapore's food safety requirements. "Source diversification remains a key food security strategy for Singapore. Diversification reduces the impact of disruption from any single source as our importers can turn to alternative sources quickly to stabilise our food supply," said SFA and AVS. "If there are supply disruptions from any source, we will work with the industry to increase chilled and frozen chicken supply from other sources if necessary." The authorities also encouraged consumers to be flexible with their food options when supply disruptions occur. In response to CNA's queries, FairPrice said on Monday that it is currently not impacted by the bird flu outbreak in Brazil, and encouraged customers not to stockpile poultry as it has ample stocks in its warehouses. "Global supply chain disruptions have become a more common occurrence in recent years, which is why we are always exploring new partnerships and solutions to further diversify and strengthen our supply chain, and stay ahead of potential disruption," said a FairPrice Group spokesperson. A Sheng Siong spokesperson said that Brazil is one of its primary sources for frozen poultry. It added that it will work closely with suppliers to monitor the situation and take guidance from SFA. COUNTRIES BAN BRAZILIAN CHICKEN Brazil, the world's largest chicken exporter, confirmed the outbreak on Friday, triggering bans in several countries. Major importers such as China, the European Union and South Korea have banned poultry imports from Brazil for 60 days, Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Friday. Japan suspended poultry meat imports from Montenegro and live poultry from the wider state of Rio Grande do Sul. Brazilian authorities at the state and federal levels have scrambled to prevent the disease from spreading. Brazil's agriculture ministry and Rio Grande do Sul's department of agriculture created a task force in Montenegro to prevent the virus from spreading, with officials visiting 524 properties within a 10km radius of the farm where the first case was found. On Saturday, the government of Minas Gerais state said it destroyed 450 metric tons of eggs from Rio Grande do Sul. Eggs from the affected farm were traced to locations in Minas Gerais, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul and will be destroyed, said the agriculture ministry. The virus killed around 15,000 birds and the farm culled an additional 2,000. On Saturday, teams from Vibra Foods buried waste that had first been incinerated to prevent the spread of the virus.
Reuters
17-05-2025
- Health
- Reuters
Mexico suspends poultry imports from Brazil after bird flu case
MEXICO CITY, May 17 (Reuters) - Mexico said on Saturday it is suspending imports of poultry products from Brazil after the South American country confirmed its first outbreak of bird flu on a poultry farm. "With the aim of protecting the national poultry industry, Mexico is temporarily suspending the import of chicken meat, fertile eggs, live birds, and other poultry products from Brazil as a precaution," Mexico's Agriculture Ministry said in a statement.
