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Newsweek
15-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Iran Regime Change Is Underway, But Not in Trump's Favor—Former US Diplomat
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. A former U.S. diplomat involved in the last nuclear deal reached between Iran and major world powers has argued that the Islamic Republic was already undergoing a significant internal shift, although not in a manner likely to be beneficial to President Donald Trump's administration. Speaking during a virtual briefing held by the Middle East Institute on Tuesday, Alan Eyre, a veteran foreign service officer who served on the negotiating team that resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement in 2015, argued that "regime change" had already begun in Iran in the wake of the 12-day war fought with Israel. Yet he said that "regime change in the sense that people in the West think about it, which is an alternative form of government that's more pro-West," was "unlikely" to unfold. Rather than empowering Iran's reformist bloc, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, who renewed calls for diplomacy with the United States despite its unprecedented direct attack on Iranian nuclear facilities last month, Eyre stated that the recent conflict was "more likely making this regime more militaristic, more isolationist, emphasizing also the security aspect of it." Asked by Newsweek if there was a way he felt the Trump administration might be able to take advantage of the situation to advance the diplomatic solution still sought by the White House, Eyre remained doubtful. "The U.S., at its best, was not good at this sort of subtle manipulation of other polities that would derive some form of government that was pro-West or pro-U.S., and especially now with the current U.S. administration, we just don't have the expertise, or necessarily even the desire to engage in these sorts of intricacies," Eyre said. "Democracy these days is a very blunt tool that's rusting." "First of all, I think the reformists are of minor importance in Iran, and even if they were stronger, I don't think the U.S. has the ability to interface with it in a way to strengthen [them], at least in a way that's practical," he said. "I mean, the U.S. has tremendous ability to positively affect change in Iran and to strengthen reformists by lifting sanctions on Iran. But that's not going to happen." Newsweek reached out to the Iranian Mission to the United Nations and the U.S. State Department for comment. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends a mourning ceremony commemorating the death anniversary of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson, Hussein, in Tehran on July 6, 2025. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends a mourning ceremony commemorating the death anniversary of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson, Hussein, in Tehran on July 6, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/AP Changing Tides in Tehran The U.S. has a troubled history of interference in Iranian politics in pursuit of Washington's interests. The CIA-backed coup that helped reinstall the pro-Western shah in 1953 was followed by the 1979 Islamic Revolution that ultimately ousted the monarchy and put in place the current theocracy. Publicly, there has been little to suggest any new disruptions to Iran's ruling system taking place imminently. All major players, including military leaders from both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the conventional Iranian Army, as well as reformist politicians, continue to swear loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who assumed power in 1989 following the death of his predecessor, revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Calls for mass uprisings by both Israel and an array of Iranian dissident groups, mostly based abroad, have also thus far gone unrealized in the wake of the 12-day war. Newsweek recently spoke with several analysts who have insider sources in Iran who identified a gradual shift in domestic power mechanisms that predated the current conflict and may be accelerated by it. Among the most common views expressed by experts was that Khamenei's position appeared to be weakening. The 86-year-old cleric wields absolute authority in Iran, though the IRGC has steadily consolidated influence over key mechanisms of power, including the economy, throughout his 36-year rule. As speculation mounts over his successor, set to be decided by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, many feel the next supreme leader will likely take a backseat to other forces. However, debate persists as to whether the potential shift would result in a more pragmatic path or even a harder-line direction for Tehran. Eyre, for his part, viewed the IRGC as the most likely actor to capitalize on any scenario involving the succession of the supreme leader. "That position is strong over long periods of time," Eyre said. "When Khamenei was originally picked, he had no power whatsoever functionally, but his power came from installing his people in key positions, in accessing revenue streams, and over time, building up a network of people beneath him who relied on him and whom he could rely on." "Whomever replaces Khamenei will have to do that same thing," he added. "But in the short term, whoever it is will be very weak and will be bound to more or less follow what he perceives to be the Khamenei line, and that means, since power abhors a vacuum, that the institution of the play a dominant role." If Khamenei's successor fails to establish sufficient authority, Eyre said that "the next supreme leader could, in fact, become a ceremonial, vestigial, performative position, with the real power being held by the IRGC." A Tough Path to Talks After launching a massive campaign of direct strikes last month, Israel targeted both facilities and personnel, killing scores of top IRGC commanders in particular. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missile and drone strikes against Israel, also targeting a U.S. base in Qatar after Trump ordered the first-ever direct strikes on Iran. Both Iran and Israel declared victory following the June 24 ceasefire announced by Trump, putting an end to the most intensive battle between the two arch-foes to date. Meanwhile, Trump, who abandoned the JCPOA during his first term in 2018, has continued to express his desire to resume negotiations toward striking a new nuclear deal with Iran. However, uncertainties surround the possibility of rekindling diplomacy, as the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied Trump's claim last week that Tehran had sent him a request to return to the table. Since then, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated that Tehran would be willing to re-enter nuclear talks, but only on the condition that the White House provide a guarantee that it would pursue no additional military action against Iran. Pezeshkian's latest remarks on Tuesday appeared to emphasize Iran's openness to diplomacy, but neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed any return to negotiations. "I think Iran fears that when the U.S. says it wants to negotiate, it means that it wants to accept Iran's surrender, because one of the things that Israel has done is now normalize new red lines where [there would be] no domestic enrichment, no missile program, no support for proxies," Eyre said. "So, the sort of terms that allow Iran to go forward that are inside the strategic air are much more punitive on Iran than they used to be, and I think much more punitive than Iran is willing to accept," he added. "So, while the U.S. is the final destination for Iranian diplomacy, I don't think they're upbeat at all." Eyre argued that "the real question is: What is the U.S. vision for diplomacy with Iran? Is it essentially punitive and maximalist or is there going to be a good-faith effort, which there wasn't before the war, to see if they can find a modus vivendi that modifies not just Iran's capabilities but also its intentions, which is going to be hard."
The Mainichi
11-06-2025
- Business
- The Mainichi
China's Xi urges new S. Korean leader Lee to improve bilateral ties
BEIJING (Kyodo) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping urged new South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung to promote a bilateral strategic cooperative partnership in their first telephone conversation on Tuesday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. In a veiled reference to high U.S. tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump, Xi called for China and South Korea to "jointly safeguard multilateralism and free trade" and "ensure the stable and smooth functioning of global and regional industrial and supply chains," the ministry said. China has been eager to improve its strained ties with South Korea, a U.S. ally, amid its tit-for-tat trade war with the United States. Their relationship deteriorated under Lee's predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol, who pursued pro-U.S. foreign policy and boosted trilateral cooperation that includes Japan. Lee and Xi agreed to strengthen bilateral exchanges to "enhance friendly sentiments" between the citizens of both nations, and make joint efforts to "achieve visible outcomes in practical areas of cooperation, including the economy," according to the South Korean presidential office. China is South Korea's largest trading partner. The South Korean leader also asked China to play a "constructive role" in achieving denuclearization and promoting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Xi said in response that China would make efforts toward resolving the issue and contributing to regional peace and stability, Lee's office said. Lee invited Xi to South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit to be held in Gyeongju in November. The two leaders agreed to closely cooperate for the successful hosting of APEC meetings as chair countries of this year and next year, his office added. Xi is "seriously considering" visiting South Korea to attend the APEC summit, according to South Korea's Yonhap News Agency. If realized, it would be his first trip to the neighboring country in 11 years.
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The first task facing South Korea's next leader: Handling Trump
When South Koreans elect a new president Tuesday, it will end months of domestic political turmoil — but their choice could bring big changes to the country's relationship with the United States. Lee Jae-myung, leader of the liberal opposition Democratic Party, had a clear lead in polls going into the election, which is being held six months to the day after then-President Yoon Suk Yeol plunged the East Asian democracy of more than 50 million people into turmoil by abruptly declaring martial law. Since lawmakers impeached Yoon in December over the short-lived martial law order, South Korea has been stuck in a leadership vacuum, churning through a series of acting presidents. The uncertainty has also constrained the U.S. ally in Washington even as President Donald Trump slapped it with a 25% 'reciprocal' tariff, among other levies. The presidential by-election, which was triggered in April when South Korea's Constitutional Court upheld Yoon's impeachment, promises a return to stability, and South Koreans have turned out in record numbers for early voting. 'A lot of people just want to move on, because it's been a long six months,' said Jennifer Lee, a principal at the Asia Group corporate consultancy in Washington, who recently returned from a trip to South Korea. Lee Jae-myung, 61, who narrowly lost to Yoon in 2022, has been seen as the most likely next president since Yoon was impeached. But public support for Lee has been driven more by anger at Yoon's conservative People Power Party, which has declined to condemn his actions, than by agreement with Lee's policy positions, said Rob York, director for regional affairs at Pacific Forum, a foreign policy research institute in Honolulu. 'I don't think enthusiasm for him is especially strong,' York said. 'He's not an especially inspiring figure for a number of reasons, but the conservative party is simply so tainted right now.' Further boosting Lee's chances is the fact that conservative votes are being split between Kim Moon Soo, the People Power Party candidate, and Lee Jun-seok, a young lawmaker from the upstart Reform Party who has been generating controversy with his antifeminist remarks. Though Lee has moved toward the center during the campaign, he is generally seen as more open to China and North Korea than his predecessor and less friendly toward Japan, which is part of a trilateral security partnership with the United States and South Korea. Because Yoon was 'so pro-U.S. and hardcore U.S.,' it seems unlikely that the U.S.-South Korea relationship will remain as strong, the Asia Group's Jennifer Lee said. 'I think that there will be some more balancing act between the United States and China,' she said, and if the Trump administration 'comes out hard' on issues such as tariffs or cost-sharing for the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, 'I think there may be a lot more frictions ahead.' Still, Lee the candidate has expressed support for the U.S.-South Korea alliance and already begun reaching out to the Trump administration. In an interview last week with Time magazine, Lee said Trump 'has outstanding skills in terms of negotiation' and that both he and Trump are simply looking out for the interests of their people. Though he doesn't align with Trump's conservative views, Lee has in the past been nicknamed 'Korea's Trump' by supporters enamored with his populist, outspoken style. Like Trump, Lee also survived an attempt on his life last year, having been stabbed in the neck during a visit to the city of Busan. 'Personality-wise I think the two of them, if they're in a room together, would probably get along,' York said. 'Both of them are people who view themselves as dealmakers, and I think they're more concerned with crafting a deal that makes both of them look good.' One of Lee's top priorities will be reaching a deal on tariffs, which have hit South Korea hard. In addition to the 25% tariff, South Korea — the world's 10th-largest economy — is vulnerable to steep duties on some of its biggest exports, such as steel and automobiles. Lee is also facing a more assertive North Korea, whose leader, Kim Jong Un, has been advancing his ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. Like Trump, Lee favors greater engagement with the North, pledging last week to restore a military hotline between the two rivals, who technically remain at war. Though Trump has said he'd like to revive his in-person diplomacy with Kim, North Korea appears far less interested in negotiating than it was when the two leaders met in 2018 and 2019. Kim is now receiving crucial economic and military support through a security partnership with Russia, and he said last year that North Korea is no longer pursuing reconciliation with the South. The heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula come amid reports that Trump is considering withdrawing thousands of U.S. troops from the South, an idea he also floated during his first term. Though Seoul says there have been no such discussions, Pentagon officials say a troop reduction has not been ruled out. Neither South Korea nor U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) were barely mentioned in Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's speech in Singapore last weekend laying out the U.S. approach to the Indo-Pacific, adding to concerns about where the country stands with Washington. 'The U.S. can unilaterally decide and act on reducing USFK troops. It's their military, after all,' said Bong Young Sik, a North Korea specialist at the Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, referring to U.S. Forces Korea. But 'they need to consider and accommodate the situations their security partners are under and facing,' he said. 'If they go with 'What is good for the U.S. is good for the world,' I am not sure how long that approach could work,' Bong said. Jennifer Jett reported from Hong Kong and Stella Kim from Los Angeles. This article was originally published on
NBC News
02-06-2025
- Politics
- NBC News
The first task facing South Korea's next leader: Handling Trump
When South Koreans elect a new president Tuesday, it will end months of domestic political turmoil — but their choice could bring big changes to the country's relationship with the United States. Lee Jae-myung, leader of the liberal opposition Democratic Party, had a clear lead in polls going into the election, which is being held six months to the day after then-President Yoon Suk Yeol plunged the East Asian democracy of more than 50 million people into turmoil by abruptly declaring martial law. Since lawmakers impeached Yoon in December over the short-lived martial law order, South Korea has been stuck in a leadership vacuum, churning through a series of acting presidents. The uncertainty has also constrained the U.S. ally in Washington even as President Donald Trump slapped it with a 25% 'reciprocal' tariff, among other levies. The presidential by-election, which was triggered in April when Yoon's impeachment was upheld by South Korea's Constitutional Court, promises a return to stability, and South Koreans have turned out in record numbers for early voting. 'A lot of people just want to move on, because it's been a long six months,' said Jennifer Lee, a principal at the Asia Group corporate consultancy in Washington, who recently returned from a trip to South Korea. Lee Jae-myung, 61, who narrowly lost to Yoon in 2022, has been seen as the most likely next president since Yoon was impeached. But public support for Lee has been driven more by anger at Yoon's conservative People Power Party, which has declined to condemn his actions, than by agreement with Lee's policy positions, said Rob York, director for regional affairs at Pacific Forum, a foreign policy research institute in Honolulu. 'I don't think enthusiasm for him is especially strong,' York said. 'He's not an especially inspiring figure for a number of reasons, but the conservative party is simply so tainted right now.' Further boosting Lee's chances is the fact that conservative votes are being split between Kim Moon Soo, the People Power Party candidate, and Lee Jun-seok, a young lawmaker from the upstart Reform Party who has been generating controversy with his antifeminist remarks. Though Lee has moved toward the center during the campaign, he is generally seen as more open to China and North Korea than his predecessor and less friendly toward Japan, which is part of a trilateral security partnership with the U.S. and South Korea. Because Yoon was 'so pro-U.S. and hardcore U.S.,' it seems unlikely that the U.S.-South Korea relationship will remain as strong, the Asia Group's Jennifer Lee said. 'I think that there will be some more balancing act between the United States and China,' she said, and if the Trump administration 'comes out hard' on issues such as tariffs or cost-sharing for the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, 'I think there may be a lot more frictions ahead.' Still, Lee the candidate has expressed support for the U.S.-South Korea alliance and already begun reaching out to the Trump administration. In an interview last week with Time magazine, Lee said Trump 'has outstanding skills in terms of negotiation' and that both he and Trump are simply looking out for the interests of their people. Though he doesn't align with Trump's conservative views, Lee has in the past been nicknamed 'Korea's Trump' by supporters enamored with his populist, outspoken style. Like Trump, Lee also survived an attempt on his life last year, having been stabbed in the neck during a visit to the city of Busan. 'Personality-wise I think the two of them, if they're in a room together, would probably get along,' York said. 'Both of them are people who view themselves as dealmakers, and I think they're more concerned with crafting a deal that makes both of them look good.' One of Lee's top priorities will be reaching a deal on tariffs, which have hit South Korea hard. In addition to the 25% tariff, South Korea — the world's 10th-largest economy — is vulnerable to steep duties on some of its biggest exports, such as steel and automobiles. Lee is also facing a more assertive North Korea, whose leader, Kim Jong Un, has been advancing his ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. Like Trump, Lee favors greater engagement with the North, pledging last week to restore a military hotline between the two rivals, who technically remain at war. Though Trump has said he'd like to revive his in-person diplomacy with Kim, North Korea appears far less interested in negotiating than it was when the two leaders met in 2018 and 2019. Kim is now receiving crucial economic and military support through a security partnership with Russia, and he said last year that North Korea is no longer pursuing reconciliation with the South. The heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula come amid reports that Trump is considering withdrawing thousands of U.S. troops from the South, an idea he also floated during his first term. Though Seoul says there have been no such discussions, Pentagon officials say a troop reduction has not been ruled out. Neither South Korea nor U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) were barely mentioned in Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth 's speech in Singapore last weekend laying out the U.S. approach to the Indo-Pacific, adding to concerns about where the country stands with Washington. 'The U.S. can unilaterally decide and act on reducing USFK troops. It's their military, after all,' said Bong Young Sik, a North Korea specialist at the Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, referring to U.S. Forces Korea. But 'they need to consider and accommodate the situations their security partners are under and facing,' he said. 'If they go with 'What is good for the U.S. is good for the world,' I am not sure how long that approach could work,' Bong said.
Memri
02-06-2025
- Politics
- Memri
S. Korea's Crucial June 3 Election: Could The U.S. Lose South Korea To Communist China?
On June 3, 2025, South Korea heads to the polls for the snap presidential elections, triggered by the impeachment of pro-U.S. conservative president Yoon Suk-yeol, who pursued economic decoupling from China.[1] (Source: X) David Eunkoo Kim To FOX News: This Election Is Widely Seen As A Pivotal Moment For South Korea On June 1, 2025, David Eunkoo Kim, founder and representative of Truth Forum, a conservative youth organization founded at Seoul National University, gave an interview to FOX news about the crucial upcoming elections in South Korea. David Eunkoo Kim, who works with MEMRI (See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 772, South Korea's Democrats, Crisis, And What The U.S. Must Know, by David Eunkoo Kim, May 16, 2025) said to FOX news: "This election is widely seen as a pivotal moment for South Korea because the stakes – both domestically and geopolitically – are extraordinarily high."[2] Then, commenting about Lee Jae-myung, current Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidate at the June 3 presidential elections, David Eunkoo Kim added: "Throughout his political career, [Lee] has consistently aligned himself with both pro-North Korean and pro-Chinese agendas. He has been implicated in sending funds to North Korea in violation of U.N. sanctions, and his deference to China has been nothing short of submissive." David Eunkoo Kim, founder and president of the Truth Forum (See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 772, South Korea's Democrats, Crisis, And What The U.S. Must Know, by David Eunkoo Kim, May 16, 2025) David Eunkoo Kim In The New York Sun: "The Leftist DPK Presidential Candidate Lee Jae-Myung Actively Advocates For Improving Relations With China" In a recent article to the New York Sun, David Eunkoo Kim stressed: "The leftist DPK presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung actively advocates for improving relations with China and criticized the 'inequality' of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, making him a prominent pro-China politician. Lee advocates for 'autonomous and balanced diplomacy centered on national interests.' He even mentioned that, if elected, he would cancel the THAAD (American anti-ballistic missile defense system) deployment and take wartime operational control of South Korean forces. Lee embraces a dangerous revisionist interpretation of Korean history – one that casts doubt on the very legitimacy of the Republic itself, absolves the violent legacy of communism, and promotes anti-American resentment."[3] David Eunkoo Kim then added: "The DPK's embrace of revisionist history has translated into real-world deference to authoritarian regimes, most notably China."
