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The National
3 days ago
- Politics
- The National
John Curtice in warning to SNP and Labour after Hamilton by-election
The polling expert was appearing on the BBC after it was announced that Davy Russell had won the by-election for Scottish Labour, becoming the party's 23 MSP with 31.5% of the total vote. The SNP were second, with their candidate Katy Loudon picking up 29.4% of the vote, while Reform UK's Ross Lambie was a close third with 26.2%. Speaking to the BBC, Professor Curtice said that the result had confirmed the 'evidence of the opinion polls', but that Reform's level of support was "a bit of a surprise". READ MORE: Hamilton by-election results – see the full breakdown in charts and graphs He explained: 'The revival of the Labour Party that took place in the two years running up to the General Election has indeed disappeared, the party is indeed more or less back to where it was in 2021. 'But at the same time, with the SNP vote down by 17 points, here is more than ample evidence that indeed the SNP, while it might have steadied the ship psychologically, has still made very little progress in advancing on where it was at last summer.' Curtice said that the vote result showed that there was a 'chunk' of pro-Yes voters who had backed Labour in the 2024 General Election and 'have not returned to the SNP fold'. He added: 'This election confirms very, very clearly that the SNP still have an awful lot of work to do to get those voters back on side, and it does illustrate that indeed, although, given, if this kind of result were to be reflected across the whole of Scotland, we'd still bet about the SNP being the largest party, they are still on relatively fragile ground.' The University of Strathclyde expert further said that Reform UK's vote share had been a 'bit of a surprise given the national polls'. Reform UK candidate Ross Lambie campaigning in the by-election (Image: Gordon Terris) He went on: 'That 26% almost matches their best performance in the Scottish local government by-election [in Clydebank]. It is higher than we would expect given the current polls in Scotland. 'It certainly is very bad news for the Conservative Party, who are frankly being had for breakfast, lunch, and dinner by Reform at the moment, so far as the public is concerned. They're at 18% in the GB-wide polls, they're down to 12% in the Scotland polls. The Conservative Party cannot afford for Reform to gain momentum north of the Border.' However, he went on to issue a warning to the SNP and Labour, saying both parties 'need to think about how are they going to effectively deal with Reform'. Curtice said: 'For all the complaints about Nigel Farage's ad [attacking Anas Sarwar], it is not clear from this result that it did any damage. 'I think I would point out to both the SNP and the Labour Party that what they ended up doing in this by-election campaign was giving an awful lot of publicity to a message that they thought was not a very good idea. 'One of the first rules in politics is to avoid scratching the itch of things you do not like because you simply end up potentially giving them airtime. READ MORE: Angus Robertson tears into BBC coverage of Hamilton by-election count on live TV 'And the truth is that evidently Mr Farage's message was not sufficiently unacceptable for at least a body of people in Hamilton for Reform to record a quite notable share of the vote, and certainly the highest share of the vote won in a parliamentary contest by any anti-EU party in Scotland.' Asked where Reform's vote had come from, Curtice said: 'Around one in four of the people who voted Conservative last year, diminished in number as they were, in Scotland are switching to Reform. 'But Labour also are losing somewhere between one in six and one in five of their voters to Reform of the ones they had last year.' He added that Scottish voters who backed Labour in 2024 are more likely to switch to Reform than English voters, saying that south of the Border Labour 'are losing about 10% of their vote to Reform'.
The National
11-05-2025
- Politics
- The National
How are Scottish parties set for Holyrood election? John Curtice's view
The General Election last June represented a dark day for the SNP as their presence at Westminster significantly diminished, but Labour's time in the sun has been short-lived. Meanwhile, the English local elections earlier this month confirmed what the polls have been telling us; that the rise of Reform UK is real. So what is the state of play with the Scottish parties as we move into the final year of the Parliament? We spoke to top pollster Professor John Curtice for his verdict. The 'lucky general' John Swinney First Minister John Swinney feared the SNP would be wiped out at Westminster, which didn't quite come to pass, but they were left with just nine MPs following the vote last June. Curtice said there hasn't been a tremendous amount of progress made since the General Election, with them polling at about 34%, just a few points ahead of what they attracted last year. But Curtice explained the rapid decline in support for Scottish Labour on the back of unpopular UK Government policies has played into the SNP's hands. READ MORE: Is time running out for Anas Sarwar to stand against Keir Starmer? 'There's not been a great deal of progress by the SNP, but this is where Swinney is a lucky general,' he told the Sunday National. 'The collapse in Labour support and the rise in Reform has just turned a third of the vote from a losing share to a winning share.' Consecutive polls have suggested the SNP look like the only party capable of forming a government and a pro-Yes majority looks promising. But they are set to end up with fewer MSPs than they have now, meaning they will need significant help to get budgets and legislation over the line. (Image: Jane Barlow) Curtice said the NHS is likely to be a huge issue for the SNP in ensuring they keep their nose in front. 'Until Sturgeon resigned, it was as though the SNP's record in government didn't matter. The opposition could constantly criticise them, but it was like water off a duck's back because the constitutional question dominated,' he said. 'When Sturgeon resigned, the insulation of the constitution became thinner, you then began to see that people who had voted for the SNP in 2019 or 2021 were now less willing to do so if they felt the health service was not working very well. 'The question is can they or can they not be as effective as Wes Streeting in turning it around? If Labour do turn it around south of the Border, and the same thing doesn't happen in Scotland, that will be an issue for the SNP.' The only way is up for Reform UK If anyone was in any doubt about whether Labour's popularity has plummeted quite as fast as everyone has been suggesting, the English local elections last week confirmed it. Reform are coming and while Curtice says they are not as popular in Scotland as they are south of the Border, the polls indicating their rise in the nations are becoming more alarming by the week. They were predicted to clinch 21 seats at Holyrood in a Survation poll last week, which would make them the main opposition ahead of Labour and the Tories. (Image: PA) 'Reform are fragmenting the Unionist vote and thereby potentially paving the way to a pro-Yes majority,' said Curtice. 'The SNP now have to hope that Reform are close to the top of their curve, or they could start challenging for constituency seats.' Sarwar back to square one Labour swept Scotland at the General Election, but the high was brief, and they've been left with quite the hangover. According to Curtice's analysis of a poll by Survation last week, Anas Sarwar's party would end up behind Reform in third place with just 18 seats – four fewer than they currently have. So much for 'change'. Curtice said: 'They are all the way back to where they were in May 2021. 'The rise of the Labour Party in Scotland had nothing to do with Scotland. It started with partygate and then the Liz Truss fiscal event. They were already at 30% when Sturgeon resigned. READ MORE: Richard Tice left fuming on BBC Question Time by trade union boss 'The resignation of Sturgeon did enable them to pick some votes off the SNP but the foundations of the rise was all to do with what was happening at Westminster and therefore [their position now] is everything to do with what is happening at Westminster. 'It's very difficult for him [Sarwar] to escape the shadow of the performance of Labour down south.' An all-time low for Conservatives If the downward trajectory in support for Labour has been staggering, then the one for the Conservatives has been colossal. The Tories polled at 11% and 12% in the constituency and list vote in the Survation survey last week which would only get them 13 seats, leaving them firmly in fourth place in the chamber. 'All the gains made in the Ruth Davidson era are gone,' said Curtice. 'It takes them back to more or less the all-time low, but again it's not Russell Findlay (above) or his predecessor's fault. 'Blame Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.' Greens 'unscathed' despite rollercoaster The Greens have been on quite the journey since amassing their greatest haul of MSPs ever in 2021. In government under Nicola Sturgeon, then out of government under Humza Yousaf, but Curtice says they have come off the rollercoaster relatively unscathed. Polls suggest they will secure at least the number of seats they already have and potentially a few more, but they do have a leadership contest on the horizon with Patrick Harvie stepping back as co-leader in the summer. So far, Lorna Slater and Gillian Mackay have put themselves forward for election, with Ross Greer expected to follow. Curtice said: 'What matters to the Greens is the list vote so they could pick up about 10 seats which is a few seats up. 'They have come through the coalition and the unravelling of it largely unscathed. Of course, they will have to survive Patrick Harvie standing down as leader.' Curtice also questioned whether Swinney was 'throwing bait' to the Greens with his decision to get rid of peak rail fares after the trial was deemed to have failed just a few months ago. Alba's new era Polls have seemed to disagree on where Alba are at, with some suggesting they wouldn't get any seats and others indicating they could get seven. Currently, the party has just one MSP in Ash Regan (below). Curtice said: 'Some people will question whether they can survive the death of Alex Salmond, and I would say it's equally true there was no chance there were ever going to go anywhere with Salmond as leader. 'Alex's personal reputation was destroyed by the court case. No matter the rights and wrongs, he had become toxic. 'Their average list vote, and at the moment it does vary by poll quite a lot, is 4%. You've got to get 6, and then you're in the mix.' LibDems back on the bureau Following the defection of Jamie Greene from the Tories, the LibDems have been enjoying life back as a recognised party on the Scottish Parliament bureau, increasing their influence and gaining more speaking time. Looking at the polls, Curtice says they are running at about 10% and look to be in a position to potentially make gains. 'It looks as though they might now be doing well enough to pick up the odd list seat,' he said. 'They certainly should be able to get past the threshold to be a recognised party on the bureau. They ought to emerge in a better position than they did in 2021 and their position at a UK level is as strong as it has been at any stage since 2019.'
