Latest news with #rapidintensification
CNN
3 hours ago
- Climate
- CNN
Hurricane Erin is one of the fastest rapidly intensifying storms in Atlantic history
Powerful Hurricane Erin has undergone a period of astonishingly rapid intensification — a phenomenon that has become far more common in recent years as the planet warms. It was a rare Category 5 for a time Saturday before becoming a Category 4, churning through the Atlantic Ocean north of the Caribbean. Erin went from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at 11 a.m. Friday to a Category 5 with near 160 mph winds just over 24 hours later. It put Erin in the history books as one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and potentially the fastest intensification rate for any storm earlier than September 1. Erin is forecast to return to Category 5 strength as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle, a process that will cause the storm's windfield to grow in size. Rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 mph of wind speed in at least 24 hours. Extreme rapid intensification historically tends to happen in September and October. Even more hurricanes are rapidly intensifying in the Atlantic as the oceans and atmosphere warm in response to fossil fuel pollution and the global warming it causes. This likely makes Erin another example of the increasing extremes of a warming world. Furthermore, Hurricane Erin is now one of only 43 Category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic – which makes it rare, though not as rare in the context of recent hurricane seasons – as peak strength is becoming easier for storms to achieve. It is the 11th Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016, an unusually high number. It's also unusual to see a Category 5 storm form so early in the season, particularly outside of the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-August is around the time of peak hurricane activity, but the strongest storms tend to occur later in the season. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now the fourth straight season to feature a Category 5 storm, with two occurring last year, hurricanes Beryl and Milton. Hurricane Erin is still expected to avoid a direct hit on any land mass, passing north of Puerto Rico, then curving north-northeast into the open Atlantic between the East Coast and Bermuda next week. As it does so, it is expected to double or even triple in size. Erin is about 150 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 160 miles northwest of Anguilla as of Saturday evening. A flash flood warning has been issued for northern Puerto Rico until midnight Saturday and tropical storm watches remain in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and parts of the Leeward Islands. The storm is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the US East Coast, and Atlantic Canada next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Erin sustained winds near 150 mph as of Saturday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of the weekend, as Erin brings rain and strong wind gusts to the Caribbean islands south of it. Erin is expected to persist until Monday, when it will start to slowly weaken. Erin's powerful wind field is forecast to at least double or triple in size next week, resulting in rough beach conditions on the East Coast. The storm is passing just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend while making a gradual turn toward the north. It's unlikely it will make a direct landfall on any of the northeastern Caribbean islands, though tropical alerts are in place for some of these areas cautioning potential threats. Erin is forecast to track north over the western Atlantic next week, away from the United States and Bermuda, but that could change if the storm turns more or less sharply than currently forecast. Even if the forecast remains consistent, Erin could cause issues for both places in the form of rough surf and dangerous rip currents. In anticipation of the hurricane, the US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has directed that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all inbound vessel traffic unless specifically authorized. Rough seas and rip currents around the islands will continue into early next week. Gusty wind and rain – which could be heavy at times – are also impacting the islands as Erin slides by. Some spots could record 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible in the heaviest downpours. Intense rain could also cause flash flooding or mudslides. There's plenty of fuel in the region for Erin to tap into as sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. They aren't quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they'd be in a world that wasn't heating up. Erin is the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the season. Four other systems roamed the Atlantic basin before Erin – Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter – but none were stronger than a tropical storm. The first hurricane of the season typically forms around August 11, so Erin was slightly behind schedule, particularly compared to early arrivals in recent seasons. There had already been three hurricanes – Beryl, Debby and Ernesto – by August 15 last year. There will be more chances for tropical systems to develop this month. Longer term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed in as a place to watch for new storms into at least early September. August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year. This story has been updated with additional information. Eric Zerkel contributed to this report.
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Category 5 Hurricane Erin is one of the fastest rapidly intensifying storms in Atlantic history
Powerful Hurricane Erin has undergone a period of astonishingly rapid intensification — a phenomenon that has become far more common in recent years as the planet warms. It is now a rare Category 5, churning through the Atlantic Ocean north of the Caribbean. Erin went from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at 11 a.m. Friday to a Category 5 with near 160 mph winds just over 24 hours later. This puts Erin in the history books as one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and potentially the fastest intensification rate for any storm earlier than September 1. Rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 mph of wind speed in at least 24 hours. Extreme rapid intensification historically tends to happen in September and October. Even more hurricanes are rapidly intensifying in the Atlantic as the oceans and atmosphere warm in response to fossil fuel pollution and the global warming it causes. This likely makes Erin another example of the increasing extremes of a warming world. Furthermore, Hurricane Erin is now one of only 43 Category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic – which makes it rare, though not as rare in the context of recent hurricane seasons – as peak strength is becoming easier for storms to achieve. It is the 11th Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016, an unusually high number. It's also unusual to see a Category 5 storm form so early in the season, particularly outside of the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-August is around the time of peak hurricane activity, but the strongest storms tend to occur later in the season. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now the fourth straight season to feature a Category 5 storm, with two occurring last year, hurricanes Beryl and Milton. Hurricane Erin is still expected to avoid a direct hit on any land mass, passing north of Puerto Rico, then curving north-northeast into the open Atlantic between the East Coast and Bermuda next week. As it does so, it is expected to double or even triple in size. The storm is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the US East Coast, and Atlantic Canada next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Additional strengthening, powered up by the warmer than normal Atlantic, is expected Saturday afternoon. Hurricane Hunters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will investigate Erin Saturday evening. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of the weekend, as Erin brings rain and strong wind gusts to the Caribbean islands south of it. Erin is expected to remain a Category 5 until Monday, when it will start to slowly weaken. Erin's powerful wind field is forecast to at least double or triple in size next week, resulting in rough beach conditions on the East Coast. The storm is passing just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend while making a gradual turn toward the north. It's unlikely it will make a direct landfall on any of the northeastern Caribbean islands, though tropical alerts are in place for some of these areas cautioning potential threats. Erin is forecast to track north over the western Atlantic next week, away from the United States and Bermuda, but that could change if the storm turns more or less sharply than currently forecast. Even if the forecast remains consistent, Erin could cause issues for both places in the form of rough surf and dangerous rip currents. In anticipation of the hurricane, the US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has directed that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all inbound vessel traffic unless specifically authorized. Rough seas and rip currents around the islands will continue into early next week. Gusty wind and rain – which could be heavy at times – are also impacting the islands as Erin slides by. Some spots could record 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible in the heaviest downpours. Intense rain could also cause flash flooding or mudslides. There's plenty of fuel in the region for Erin to tap into as sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. They aren't quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they'd be in a world that wasn't heating up. Erin is the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the season. Four other systems roamed the Atlantic basin before Erin – Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter – but none were stronger than a tropical storm. The first hurricane of the season typically forms around August 11, so Erin was slightly behind schedule, particularly compared to early arrivals in recent seasons. There had already been three hurricanes – Beryl, Debby and Ernesto – by August 15 last year. There will be more chances for tropical systems to develop this month. Longer term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed in as a place to watch for new storms into at least early September. August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year. This story has been updated with additional information. Eric Zerkel contributed to this report.
Forbes
16 hours ago
- Climate
- Forbes
Hurricane Erin Explosively Strengthening - Close to Category 5
Hurricane Erin is currently at Category 4 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 145 mph and gusting to even higher levels. NOAA Hurricane Hunters flying into the storm also found that the minimum pressure was down to 935 mb as of 8:00 am AST on August 16. Erin is literally strengthening as I write this. In the 5:00 am AST update from the National Hurricane Center, sustained winds were 130 mph. These numbers place Hurricane Erin at Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. and very close to a Category 5 storm. It also represents yet another recent example of explosive rapid intensification. Candidly, when I looked at the satellite presentation of Erin this morning, I said, 'Wow.' It had that eerily perfect structure meteorologists like me dread. Such attributes include a well-defined eye, an intact eyewall, and a healthy outflow region in the upper part of the atmosphere. It also has something else that concerns me. There is plenty of very warm water in the path of the storm. In fact, some of the warmest sea surface temperatures are still in front of the storm. Will Erin make a run for Category 5, which means sustained winds greater than 157 mph? Here's what the National Hurricane Center is saying about Hurricane Erin in its 8:00 am AST update on August 16. They wrote, " Erin is expected to continue to rapidly strengthen over the next 12 hours while it remains in favorable conditions of warm water, low wind shear, and in an environment of high moisture…. Strengthening could continue through tonight." With that statement, I am certainly not ruling out Category 5, but it really doesn't matter. Category 4 is strong enough. Thankfully, wind shear will increase early next week. Rapid intensification is defined as a storm gaining 35 mph of wind speed in less than 24 hours. At 5 pm on Friday, Erin was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It increased by 70 mph in 15 hours according to Washington Post and MyRadar Weather Radar meteorologist Matthew Cappucci. Rapid intensification is a big deal, but I continually see storms going well beyond the rate for RI. My hunch, as an expert in this field, is that our current metrics of 'weather extremes' like RI and '100-year flood' are becoming obsolete. Thankfully, Erin will not make a direct hit on the U.S., but several RI hurricanes have in recent years. They include Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Ian (2022), Hurricane Beryl (2024), Hurricane Milton (2024), Hurricane Helene (2024), and several others. I wrote last year about how RI near the coast creates a new reality for hurricane planning and response. Erin is expected to pass between Bermuda and the East Coast. NHC went on to say, 'Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next several days.' By Wednesday it could be two or three times its current size. That means the U.S. East Coast could certainly experience large swells and an elevated rip current threat. As I close, it is worth mentioning that a small disturbance is currently producing showers and thunderstorms off the North Carolina coast. It is not Hurricane Erin and only has a 10% chance of further development in the coming days. However, it certainly will be a nuisance for people along the Carolina and Virginia coasts this weekend.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane Erin To Rapidly Strengthen This Weekend; Heavy Rain Threat In Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands
Hurricane Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Friday morning several hundred miles east-northeast of the Caribbean, where it is expected to bring rain, gusty winds and high surf this weekend. While Erin's longer-term future after the Caribbean is still somewhat uncertain, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting rapid intensification this weekend to Category 4 strength by Sunday. Interests along the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda should continue to monitor the forecast. A significant rip current threat is expected in the week ahead from Florida to Massachusetts. (MORE: Erin Maps Tracker - Spaghetti Models, Forecasts, More) Watches And Warnings While Erin's center is forecast to pass north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, it could track close enough for at least some tropical storm force winds in some areas. The map below shows any tropical storm watches and/or warnings in effect. Watches mean tropical storm force winds are possible, while warnings mean they are expected. There could be other impacts in these areas other than winds, as we'll detail below. Path, Intensity Forecast Erin is located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Erin has turned toward the west-northwest as it strengthens. This path will take Erin toward progressively warmer waters, which, in tandem with low wind shear, should allow Erin to become a major hurricane this weekend as its center tracks north of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. By early next week, Erin is expected to reach sustained winds over 130 mph (Category 4 intensity), according to the National Hurricane Center. Later next week, Erin is expected to pass between North Carolina and Bermuda. Exactly where this happens remains uncertain, but Erin is expected to eventually turn northeastward to the north of Bermuda. Potential Impacts The core of Erin is expected to pass just north of the northeast Caribbean islands, but some impacts are expected this weekend from Puerto Rico to Martinique. In addition to high surf and dangerous rip currents, bands of heavy rain containing gusty winds could impact the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this weekend. This could lead to local flash flooding and landslides where bands of heavy rain persist, particularly over mountainous terrain. Beginning Monday, Erin will begin to turn more to the north between a developing break in high pressure. Where that turn occurs between the area of high pressure over the eastern U.S. and another one east of Bermuda is still uncertain and will determine what, if any, land areas might see impacts next week. The probability of a landfall from Erin along the U.S. East Coast is very low at this time. However, interests along the East Coast should continue to monitor this system for possible changes. Erin will generate high surf and dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast for several days in the week ahead, no matter where it tracks. Interests in Bermuda should also continue to follow Erin's forecast closely since its eventual turn toward the north and northeast might take it close to the archipelago next week. And parts of Atlantic Canada — particularly Newfoundland — should also follow this forecast closely, as Erin could end up tracking close to some of those areas late in the week ahead. Check back to and The Weather Channel app for updates as the forecast comes into focus. Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Rapid intensification? Hurricane forecasters say Erin's winds could skyrocket.
Tropical Storm Erin, now spinning far out in the central Atlantic Ocean, could undergo rapid intensification into a powerful 125-mph hurricane over the next few days, meteorologists said in an Aug. 14 advisory. This phenomenon can cause a tropical storm to escalate into a hurricane or a hurricane to jump one or more categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale in less than a day. An early Aug. 14 forecast from the National Hurricane Center said that Erin was forecast to undergo rapid intensification, but based on new data, a later forecast called for "steady" intensification over the next few days. "Erin is moving into an environment with very warm water temperatures, and it's not going to exit that environment for at least 5 or 6 days," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in his Substack The Eyewall. "Erin should begin to tap into this environment over the next couple days, and it's possible that we see a burst of rapid intensification at some point." Regardless, the environment ahead looks ripe for Erin to become a powerful major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend, and the storm is forecast to be nearing Category 4 strength as it turns into the western Atlantic early next week, noted WPLG hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in an Aug. 14 Substack post. Though not currently thought to be direct threat to land, Erin's waves are forecast to batter the East Coast with high surf and the threat of dangerous rip currents for beachgoers. What is rapid intensification? Why is it dangerous? Rapid intensification is a process in which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. As of the 11 a.m. ET advisory from the hurricane center, a rise of 30 mph in 24 hours is expected. Whatever happens with Erin, rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes are especially dangerous because they can give the public less time to prepare and often catch people off guard, AccuWeather said. "Predicting a storm's peak intensity and its intensity at landfall is one of the most difficult aspects of weather forecasting, and a rapidly intensifying hurricane adds tremendously to that challenge," according to AccuWeather. What causes rapid intensification? "Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely conducive environment," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said. "Typically, this environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of midlevel moisture." Such sudden spikes have been the hallmark of history's most fearsome hurricanes, Ken Graham, former director of the hurricane center and now director of the National Weather Service, told USA TODAY in 2022. Out of the nine hurricanes with winds of 150 mph or greater that struck the U.S. mainland over 103 years, all but one saw the explosion of force and power known as rapid intensification. What is the Saffir-Simpson scale? Hurricanes are measured by wind speed, with the higher categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale corresponding to more intense storms. Here's the full scale: Category / Sustained Winds: 1: 74-95 mph 2: 96-110 mph 3: 111-129 mph 4: 130-156 mph 5: 157 mph or higher This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane 'rapid intensification' worries return with Erin
