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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Coffee Prices Soar to New 2-Month Highs
September arabica coffee (KCU25) on Friday closed up +15.15 (+4.64%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) closed up +117 (+2.86%). Coffee prices on Friday extended this week's sharp rally, boosted by short-covering and technical buying with the upside breakouts to new 2-month highs. Arabica coffee this week rallied by a total of +10.4% and robusta coffee rallied by a total of +18%. Bullish fundamental factors include a frost event early this week in Brazil, reduced coffee exports from Brazil, and declining coffee ICE warehouse inventories. More News from Barchart Coffee Prices Extend Wednesday's Rally Coffee Prices Extend Wednesday's Rally Grain Market Update: Could a Rate Cut, Inflation Spur Fund Buying in Wheat, Soybeans, and Corn? Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. There was a light frost event early this week in Cerrado Mineiro, a key arabica growing area in Brazil. While damage was reportedly low, the event highlighted the frost risks during the current winter season in Brazil. Coffee prices have seen strength since last Wednesday when Brazil's Trade Ministry reported that Brazil's July unroasted coffee exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT. In related bullish news released Wednesday, Brazil's green coffee exports in July fell -28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, according to exporter group Cecafe. Cecafe said July arabica exports fell -21% y/y, while robusta exports plunged -49% y/y. Cecafe said Brazil's July coffee exports fell -28% to 2.7 million bags, and that coffee shipments during Jan-July fell -21% to 22.2 million bags. A decline in ICE coffee inventories is supporting arabica prices. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags on Thursday, before recovering slightly to 731,739 bags on Friday. ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 3-week low on Friday of 6,907 lots, mildly below the 2-year high of 7,029 lots posted on July 28. The coffee market is awaiting clarity on US tariff policies, as President Trump has yet to exempt coffee from his 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. The tariff could hurt sales of Brazilian coffee to the US and boost Brazil's coffee inventories. Above-average rainfall in Brazil last week eased dryness concerns and was a negative factor for coffee prices. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 4.8 mm of rain during the week ended August 9, or 109% of the historical average. The ongoing Brazilian coffee harvest is bearish for coffee prices. Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil's overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 94% complete as of August 6, ahead of the comparable level of 92% last year. The breakdown showed that 99% of the robusta harvest and 91% of the arabica harvest were complete as of August 6. In related news, Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Wednesday that the harvest among its members was 80.4% complete as of August 8. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter group. As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported last Wednesday that global June coffee exports rose +7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags. However, cumulative Oct-Jun coffee exports were down -0.2% y/y at 104.14 million bags. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported Tuesday that Vietnam's Jan-Jul 2025 coffee exports were up +6.9% y/y to 1.05 MMT. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. FAS forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. However, Volcafe is projecting a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
07-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tighter Supplies and Brazilian Real Weakness Boost Coffee Prices
September arabica coffee (KCU25) on Thursday closed up +4.40 (+1.50%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) closed up +24 (+0.71%). Coffee prices settled higher Thursday on signs of tighter supplies. Brazil's Trade Ministry reported late Wednesday that Brazil's July unroasted coffee exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT. Additionally, a decline in ICE arabica coffee inventories supports arabica prices, as evidenced by ICE-monitored inventories falling to a 14.5-month low of 743,240 bags on Thursday. Conversely, ICE robusta coffee inventories have increased, a bearish factor for robusta prices, after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 1-year high of 7,029 lots last Monday. More News from Barchart Coffee Prices Settle Lower on Tariff Woes Tariff Turmoil Weighs on Coffee Prices The Bullish Cattle Stampede Rumbles On. Here's What to Watch Next After Record Cattle Highs. Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Coffee prices also garnered support Thursday from a rally in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) to a 4-week high. The stronger real discourages export sales from Brazil's coffee producers. The coffee market is awaiting clarity on US tariff policies, as President Trump has yet to exempt coffee from his 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. The tariff could hurt sales of Brazilian coffee to the US and boost Brazil's coffee inventories. Below-average rainfall in Brazil is a positive factor for coffee prices. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 2.7 mm of rain during the week ended August 2, only 31% of the historical average. An excessive short position by funds in robusta coffee futures could lead to short-covering. ICE Futures Europe reported last Friday that funds boosted their net-short positions in ICE robusta futures by 1,226 to 5,854 short positions in the week ended July 29, the most in two years. In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) on Wednesday reported that global June coffee exports rose +7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, although cumulative Oct-Jun coffee exports were down -0.2% y/y at 104.14 million bags. The ongoing Brazil coffee harvest is weighing on coffee prices. Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Tuesday that the harvest among its members was 74% complete as of August 1. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter group. In related news, Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil's overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 90% complete as of July 30, ahead of the comparable level of 87% last year and the 5-year average of 84%. The breakdown showed that 98% of the robusta harvest and 85% of the arabica harvest were complete as of July 30. Coffee prices have retreated over the past three months on the outlook for abundant coffee supplies. Last month, arabica coffee tumbled to an 8-month low and robusta sank to a 1.25-year nearest-futures low. On June 25, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee. Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are positive for prices after Cecafe reported on July 16 that Brazil's total Jun green coffee exports fell -31% y/y to 2.3 million bags, with arabica exports down -27% y/y to 1.8 million bags and robusta exports down -42% y/y to 476,334 bags. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported Tuesday that Vietnam's Jan-Jul 2025 coffee exports were up +6.9% y/y to 1.05 MMT. The USDA's biannual report, released on June 25, was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
05-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Arabica Coffee Prices Sharply Higher on Brazil Coffee Crop Concerns
September arabica coffee (KCU25)on Tuesday closed up +10.15 (+3.52%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) closed down -9 (-0.26%). Coffee prices on Tuesday settled mixed. Arabica coffee settled sharply higher for a second day on Tuesday due to below-average rainfall in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 2.7 mm of rain during the week ended August 2, only 31% of the historical average. However, robusta coffee was under pressure Tuesday on forecasts for widespread showers this week in Vietnam, which should boost crop yields in the world's largest robusta producer. More News from Barchart Coffee Prices Rally on Below-Average Rainfall in Brazil Below-Average Rain in Brazil Supports Coffee Prices Is the Corn Market Undervalued? Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. A decline in ICE arabica coffee inventories is also supportive of arabica prices as ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 14.5-month low of 754,516 bags Tuesday. Conversely, ICE robusta coffee inventories have increased, a bearish factor for prices, after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 1-year high of 7,029 lots last Monday. An excessive short position by funds in robusta coffee could exacerbate any short-covering rally in robusta coffee futures. ICE Futures Europe reported last Friday that funds boosted their net-short positions in ICE robusta futures by 1,226 to 5,854 short positions in the week ended July 29, the most in two years. Last Friday, arabica coffee fell to a 3-week low on speculation that President Trump will exempt coffee from tariffs on Brazilian exports, which would ease supply concerns. Brazil's Cecafe and the National Coffee Association said they are discussing exemptions on Brazilian coffee exports with US trade officials. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick noted last week that goods not produced in the US could be exempted from tariffs. The ongoing Brazil coffee harvest is weighing on coffee prices. Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Tuesday that its harvest among its members was 74% complete as of August 1. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter group. In related news, Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil's overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 90% complete as of July 30, ahead of the comparable level of 87% last year and the 5-year average of 84%. The breakdown showed that 98% of the robusta harvest and 85% of the arabica harvest were complete as of July 30. In related news, Coffee prices have retreated over the past three months on the outlook for abundant coffee supplies. Last month, arabica coffee tumbled to an 8-month low and robusta sank to a 1.25-year nearest-futures low. On June 25, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee. Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are positive for prices after Cecafe reported on July 16 that Brazil's total Jun green coffee exports fell -31% y/y to 2.3 million bags, with arabica exports down -27% y/y to 1.8 million bags and robusta exports down -42% y/y to 476,334 bags. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported on July 7 that Vietnam's Jan-Jun 2025 coffee exports were up +4.1% y/y to 943,000 MT. The USDA's biannual report, released on June 25, was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Hammer Prices
September arabica coffee (KCU25) today is down -9.25 (-3.05%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) is down -107 (-3.20%). Coffee prices today are sharply lower due to coffee harvest pressures from Brazil. Last Friday, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil's overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 77% complete as of July 16, ahead of the comparable level of 74% last year and the 5-year average of 69%. The breakdown showed that 93% of the robusta harvest and 67% of the arabica harvest were complete as of July 9. In related news, Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced on Tuesday that its harvest among members was 49.3% complete as of July 11. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter group. More News from Barchart What is Watson Watching in the Grains Sector this Week? Soybean Meal Prices Are Rebounding. How Much Higher Can They Go? Cocoa Prices Rally as the Pace of Ivory Coast Cocoa Exports Slows Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Coffee prices are also under pressure from an increase in ICE-monitored inventories after robusta coffee inventories jumped to a 10.75-month high of 6,243 lots today. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 5.5-month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 but have since backed off to a 2.5-month low of 814,055 bags as of last Friday. Excessive dryness in Brazil is a supportive factor for coffee prices. Somar Meteorologia reported today that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended July 19. An excessive short position by funds in robusta coffee could exacerbate any short-covering rally in robusta coffee futures. ICE Futures Europe reported last Friday that funds boosted their net-short positions in ICE robusta futures by 1,163 to 1,294 short positions in the week ended July 15, the most in two years. Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are positive for prices after Cecafe reported on Wednesday that Brazil's total Jun green coffee exports fell -31% y/y to 2.3 million bags, with arabica exports down -27% y/y to 1.8 million bags and robusta exports down -42% y/y to 476,334 bags. Arabica coffee prices received support from President Trump's recent announcement that he would impose 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil, effective August 1. That threat caused concern that coffee supplies could be disrupted from Brazil, the world's largest producer of arabica coffee. Coffee prices have retreated over the past two months on the outlook for abundant coffee supplies. On June 25, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported on July 7 that Vietnam's Jan-Jun 2025 coffee exports were up +4.1% y/y to 943,000 MT. The USDA's biannual report, released on June 25, was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
19-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Coffee Prices
September arabica coffee (KCU25) today is down -5.10 (-1.66%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) is down -4 (-0.12%). Coffee prices today gave up an early advance and turned lower as the pace of the Brazil coffee harvest accelerated. Safras & Mercado reported today that Brazil's overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 77% complete as of July 16, ahead of the comparable level of 74% last year and the 5-year average of 69%. The breakdown showed that 93% of the robusta harvest and 67% of the arabica harvest were complete as of July 9. In related news, Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced on Tuesday that its harvest among members was 49.3% complete as of July 11. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter group. More News from Barchart Coffee Prices Retreat Due to a Stronger Dollar Cocoa Prices Finish Sharply Lower as Global Cocoa Demand Craters Dollar Strength Sparks Long Liquidation Pressures in Coffee Futures Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Coffee prices today initially moved higher, with arabica posting a 3-week high on carryover support from Monday, due to signs of excessive dryness in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended July 12. Coffee prices are under pressure from an increase in ICE-monitored inventories after robusta coffee inventories jumped to a 10-month high of 5,995 lots today. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 5.25-month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 but have since backed off to 819,061 bags as of Thursday. Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are positive for prices after Cecafe on Wednesday reported that Brazil's total Jun green coffee exports fell -31% y/y to 2.3 million bags, with arabica exports down -27% y/y to 1.8 million bags and robusta exports down -42% y/y to 476,334 bags. Arabica coffee prices have support from President Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he would impose 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil, effective August 1. That threat caused concern that coffee supplies could be disrupted from Brazil, the world's largest producer of arabica coffee. Coffee prices have retreated over the past two months on the outlook for abundant coffee supplies. On June 25, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported on July 7 that Vietnam's Jan-Jun 2025 coffee exports were up +4.1% y/y to 943,000 MT. The USDA's biannual report, released on June 25, was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
