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The Guardian
2 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Are there billions more people on earth than we thought? If so, it's no bad thing
According to the UN, the world's population stands at just over 8.2 billion. However, a recent study suggests the figure could be hundreds of millions or even billions higher. This news might sound terrifying, but it is important to remember that anxieties about overpopulation are rarely just about the numbers. They reflect power struggles over which lives matter, who is a burden or a threat and ultimately what the future should look like. The world's population reached 1 billion just after the turn of the 19th century. The number of people on the planet then began to grow exponentially, doubling to 2 billion by about 1925 and again to 4 billion about 50 years later. On 15 November 2022, the UN announced the birth of the eight billionth human. As it is not possible to count every single person in the world, the UN's population figures are calculated by dividing the Earth's surface into a grid and using census data to estimate how many people live in each square. This method provides a rough estimate, but until now it was thought to be reasonably reliable. A recent study by Dr Josias Láng-Ritter and his colleagues at Aalto University in Finland discovered that UN estimates undercount the number of people living in rural areas by more than 50%. This is because census data in the global south is often incomplete or unreliable outside big cities. Consequently, UN figures probably underestimate the world population by hundreds of millions or several billion. Many people argue that our planet does not have the resources to support 8 billion people. 'Overpopulation' is seen as the root cause of many of the world's biggest problems. But these concerns are nothing new. In 1988, the US sci-fi writer Isaac Asimov used what he referred to as 'my bathroom metaphor' to illustrate his fears about population growth. 'If two people live in an apartment, and there are two bathrooms, then both have what I call freedom of the bathroom.' But if 20 people live in the same apartment, they will impinge on each other's liberty one way or another. According to Asimov, rapid population growth creates a similar problem. It not only places enormous pressure on natural resources, but also erodes autonomy, dignity and civility. 'As you put more and more people on to the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears.' At the turn of the 19th century, when there were fewer than a billion inhabitants on Earth, Thomas Malthus was already convinced that 'the period when the number of men surpass their means of subsistence has long since arrived'. Malthus's inability to predict that technology would revolutionise food production did not dent his popularity. On the contrary, as the world population grew, the prophets of doom grew ever louder. Neo-Malthusian anxieties reached fever pitch with Paul and Anne Ehrlich's The Population Bomb – subtitled Population Control or Race to Oblivion (1968). This hugely influential, bestselling book warned: 'The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.' These devastating predictions encouraged governments and international agencies to take drastic action. As fertility rates were already falling in most high-income countries, these efforts concentrated on Africa and even more so Asia. USAID funded family planning programmes across what was then referred to as the developing world. Millions of Indian men were sterilised during the Emergency of the mid-1970s. In 1979, the Chinese Communist party introduced the one-child policy and a few years later launched a mass sterilisation campaign, which focused mainly on women. Today, plenty of people remain concerned about overpopulation, but their apocalyptic visions now concentrate on climate change, resource depletion and biodiversity loss. Despite stark disparities in consumption – Americans consume 360 times more carbon per capita than Somalis, for example – population control still focuses on the majority world. Thankfully, the coercive policies that took place in India, China and elsewhere are no longer in vogue. The new approach to population control focuses instead on women's empowerment. Educating women and giving them control over their lives has proved remarkably effective at reducing fertility rates. In the 1960s, women had on average five children each. Today, the figure is 2.3 per woman – just over what is needed to keep the population stable. By 2100 the global birthrate is projected to fall to 1.8. According to the UN, the world's population will peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. After this it will stabilise, then fall. The exponential growth that gave Malthusians so many sleepless nights has been halted. That many people will put considerable stress on the Earth's resources, but if consumption is managed responsibly and sustainable technologies are developed, the world will avoid an apocalyptic catastrophe. Returning to Asimov's bathroom metaphor, as anyone who has crammed into one house with their extended family over Christmas knows, many people sharing few bathrooms creates a suboptimal situation. You won't be able to shower exactly when you want – and you'd better make it a short one. But this hardly amounts to the end of civilisation. In fact, compromise and sharing is probably closer to most people's idea of a good life than having the freedom to do whatever you want, whenever you want. Population growth varies starkly between regions. In most high-income countries, fertility rates are already well below the replacement level. The African continent is projected to account for over half the world's population growth in the next three decades, with Asia and Latin America responsible for the rest. As the historian Alison Bashford points out, concerns about overpopulation are often not really about there being too many people but too many of the wrong kind of people. Ethnonationalists in Europe and North America see the disparities in birthrates as an existential threat to 'western civilisation'. They worry about their countries being indelibly changed by mass migration. But the cold hard truth is that in a few decades our shrinking, ageing societies will desperately need these newcomers to pay taxes and work in healthcare and social care. This vision of the future may be unsettling for some, but the alternative is much worse. To extend Asimov's metaphor, the populist right advocates a sort of bathroom apartheid. They are en suite isolationists, who want to retain exclusive use over one of the bathrooms in the apartment, and force the 19 other flatmates to share. At first, this approach has its advantages. They can soak in the bath all day. They can sit for hours on the can reading the news. But sooner or later they will come a cropper. Perhaps the other toilet becomes blocked and the whole flat is inundated with raw sewage. The other flatmates might forcibly seize control of the personal bathroom. Or as the en suite isolationists grow old and infirm, they'll find themselves with no one to bathe them or wipe their bottoms. Jonathan Kennedy teaches politics and global health at Queen Mary University of London, and is the author of Pathogenesis: How Germs Made History
Zawya
3 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
South Africa: Govt pays $335,634 from spaza shop fund
Government has so far disbursed R6m out of R500m in funding through the Spaza Shop Support Fund (SSSF) to eligible spaza shops and other food-handling outlets. The fund, aimed at increasing the participation of South African-owned spaza shops in the townships and rural areas retail trade sector, was launched last month. 'This is moving in a slow pace due to all the parties that are involved in coordinating the work, which includes inspections, verification of citizenship as well as site and health inspections. 'The fund will assist shop owners that met the deadline for the registration of an operating permit,' Minister of Small Business Development Stella Tembisa Ndabeni said during a media briefing in Pretoria on Thursday, 29 May. It offers funding of up to R300,000 per shop through a combination of grants and low-interest loans. In addition, it allocates funding specifically for initial stock purchases, infrastructure improvements, business development tools, and Point of Sale (POS) system adoption. The fund is being administered by the National Empowerment Fund (NEF) and the Small Enterprise Development Finance Agency (Sefda). Through the fund, shop owners will be provided with assistance in meeting hygiene and regulatory standards to ensure the provision of safe, high-quality products. Inaugural Global SME Ministerial Meeting Marking the countdown to the first-ever Global Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME) Ministerial Meeting to be hosted by the South African government and the United Nations Small Business Agency in Johannesburg, the Minister shared the vision and expected outcomes of the Ministerial meeting. Taking place from 22-24 July 2025, the Ministerial Meeting will serve as a dedicated platform for ministers and officials responsible for Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) to share strategic insights, shape future policies, and foster global consensus on the small business agenda. Countries from around the world have confirmed their participation, including Brazil, Cambodia, Costa Rica, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, India, Indonesia and Switzerland, among others. Nearly 50 countries are expected to be at the event. 'As a country, through the Department of Small Business Development, we are steadfast in our commitment to create a more enabling legislative and policy environment that empowers small businesses to grow, scale up, and compete on the global stage. 'In addition, we will galvanize a call-to-action to influence dialogues and decisions at the Group Twenty (G20) Summit under South Africa's leadership. We are unequivocal that the G20 needs a sharper MSME focus with its own dedicated Working Group, and we will use this Global Ministerial to bolster this position. 'We will also use this Global Ministerial to develop and activate strong partnerships across governments, multilateral institutions, and businesses. We do not want a talk- shop. We will emerge with practical initiatives that strengthen the global MSME support eco-system, as well as country-level partnerships that translate policy into action,' the Minister said. Startup20 Task Force The Department of Small Business Development will also be hosting the Startup20 Task Force planning sessions in the days preceding the Ministerial. This will provide the opportunity for Task Force leaders to share thinking with global MSME leaders beyond the G20. 'The challenges that small businesses face is vast and cannot be tackled by any one nation alone. Thus, I passionately urge governments, international agencies, development partners, and the private sector to join us in strengthening MSME ecosystems. 'Let us deepen our regional and global cooperation, share knowledge, and uplift MSMEs especially those led by women, youth, and persons with disabilities,' the Minister said. South Africa assumed the G20 Presidency from 1 December 2024 to 30 November 2025 under the theme: Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability.
RNZ News
3 days ago
- Automotive
- RNZ News
Safe or risky?: NZTA, driving schools at odds over car simulators
Driving schools that offer lessons in high-tech car simulators are at odds with the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) over safety risks they could pose for learner drivers once they hit the road. The agency argues simulators could encourage over-confidence, putting new drivers at greater risk of crashing. But instructors who own simulators say they are not dangerous and expose people to a wide range of scenarios. Excellence Driving Academy co-directors Wendy and Tony Green offered lessons in simulators, saying they could replicate different weather conditions, times of day and road types. Wendy Green said they also let drivers from smaller rural areas experience virtual big city streets. "That's where the simulator is kind of in its own, because it doesn't matter where you live geographically. You still have the ability to be able to be taught the skills you need to drive anywhere," she said. "[NZTA] don't know what they're talking about. Our simulators are not dangerous." Wendy and Tony Green. Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon Tony Green said roads were globally generic but had been "New Zealand-ised" to include familiar lines, signs and lights. Simulators could also generate hazards like vehicles running red lights. In a paper published late last year, the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) expressed concerns about simulators, saying they could promote over-confidence, corresponding with a crash risk. "Any benefits that might arise through training are greatly out-weighed by the overconfidence imparted in those involved in these courses," the paper said. "There is no substitute for on-road training and experience. Learners do not acquire the same level of skill and competence and there are potential risks for increased over-confidence, and corresponding crash risk." While simulators had some advantages for drivers, such as exposure to different scenarios, they had limitations in teaching basic vehicle handling skills, NZTA said. "Owing to the difficulty in emulating on-road driving... simulator training could lead to incorrect learning of procedural skills such as reduced mirror scanning (due to learning on a simulator with a single screen and narrow field of view) or poor vehicle control (due to limitations in steering, braking or motion functionality)," the paper said. NZTA declined RNZ's request for an interview, but in a statement said driving schools increasingly wanted to introduce simulator technology to New Zealand. It did not support them as a replacement for on road-training or using them to increase familiarity with driving and would not fund or support driving simulator trials. The agency said its position was based on the latest available research and was peer reviewed by international road safety experts. NZTA did not directly address a question whether it would like the technology banned, instead saying it would monitor developments. "We would be happy to work with industry to help them shape scientifically robust studies that may further advance the current evidence base," the agency said. AA road safety spokesperson Dylan Thomsen said the technology could help with real-world practice, but ultimately people still needed to learn on real roads. "If you crash when you're driving a car in a simulation the computer can just reset and you carry on driving. In the real world, the consequences of people making a mistake, having things go wrong, can be severe. People can be hurt. People can even lose their lives." Selwyn Driving School. Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon The Greens had sold four simulators to instructors since 2019, including to Selwyn Driving School director Brad Mannering. Mannering installed the unit in a converted ambulance at a cost of around $100,000. He said simulators could let people experience virtual driving such as driving on ice or safely performing emergency brake training. "This way I can guarantee exposure to the top 25 reasons accidents that happen world-wide. They have at least a memory of that situation occurring for them and hopefully they'll be able to recall that a time they need it on the road," he said. "The thing that I most disagree with is they've picked and chosen which parts of those international studies they wanted to use in their document. There is actually a whole lot of stuff that supports the use of driving simulators and education and I think they've glazed over some of that stuff." Selwyn Driving School director Brad Mannering. Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon Oranga Tamariki funded Mannering for the past year to run weekly simulator lessons at Te Puna Wai ō Tuhinapo youth justice centre in Rolleston. Residential services youth justice manager Aimee Hunter said the defensive tactics taught in the simulator helped a teenager at Te Puna Wai get their restricted drivers licence. "It's things you can't teach in a classroom. Those are the points that when we get back to our young person, who was able to obtain a restricted drivers licence, their whānau is incredibly grateful, and have seen the change in that young person," she said. "They are now out in the community, independent, driving on a legitimate drivers licence and working a permanent full-time job. Some of the feedback we've had from whānau has been huge." In April, the government proposed the first major changes to the country's driver licence system in 14 years, under which drivers would not need to take a second practical test to get their licence. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
The Independent
21-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Communities could get cash for hosting solar farms and offshore wind schemes
Communities living near new clean energy schemes could get cash for sports facilities, better transport links and training schemes, the Government has said. Under the plans, coastal communities who host infrastructure linked to offshore wind farms, and those in rural areas where new solar or wind farms are built, will receive money from energy developers to spend on their local priorities. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) said the level of payments could range from tens of thousands of pounds a year up to millions of pounds a year, depending on the size of the development. The proposals would enshrine in law a requirement for renewable developers to pay into community benefit funds, with local people who are hosting the infrastructure needed to transform the UK's energy system to clean power able to choose what the money is spent on. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said: 'If you live near an offshore wind or solar farm, your local community should benefit from supporting this nationally critical mission. 'The Prime Minister's mission to become a clean energy superpower is creating good well-paid jobs in these areas, building the infrastructure we need to get energy bills down for working people.' He added it would revitalise coastal and rural communities by creating wealth, better facilities and energy security. The Government has pledged to double onshore wind, triple solar power and quadruple offshore wind by 2030, as part of its plans to make the UK run almost entirely on clean energy by that point, as well as investing in carbon capture and storage, and long-term energy storage. But while renewable technologies are largely popular with voters, they are often controversial in the local areas where large-scale solar farms, onshore wind or the infrastructure bringing offshore wind power onto land are sited. The announcement builds on measure in the Planning and Infrastructure Bill where households within 500 metres of new or upgraded pylons and other transmission infrastructure will get electricity bill discounts of up to £2,500 over 10 years. The Government is inviting views on the plans from industry and others until July 16, including which types of energy infrastructure – such as renewables, low-carbon energy generation and storage – should be required to pay into community benefit funds.
Irish Times
13-05-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Banks obliged to retain ATMs under legislation passed by Seanad
Legislation to oblige banks to provide ATMs in certain areas, guaranteeing access to cash infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, has been passed by the Seanad and now goes to the President for consideration. The Finance (Provision of Access to Cash Infrastructure) Bill was introduced in the wake of concerns that increasing numbers of ATMs were being removed following a decline in cash usage. Passed last month by the Dáil, the legislation aims to protect the role of cash in Irish society and in the economy in the future. The Bill was published last year by then minister for finance Michael McGrath, who said that 'in the absence of a legislative intervention, it is likely that over time we would see more and more ATMs removed from communities across the country and I do not want to see this happen'. The Bill gives the Central Bank powers to address issues affecting those accessing cash, including oversight to ensure ATMs are properly maintained and that the 'out of service' experience of consumers is kept to a minimum. READ MORE The legislation was prompted by a recommendation made by the Department of Finance's Retail Banking Review, published in November 2022, which highlighted the importance of cash to ensure people did not suffer financial exclusion. The review stated that cash is needed as a safety blanket in case of power outages in electronic payment or cyberattacks. [ Letter to the Editor: The dangers of a cashless society Opens in new window ] The Bill requires a set minimum number of ATMs per 100,000 people and imposes certain obligations on the three main banks. Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne said Storm Éowyn demonstrated that cash was 'absolutely vital' when 'the system shut down and shops didn't have access to the till'. His party colleague, Senator Cathal Byrne, said 'ATMs should be modernised 'and move with the times' to allow people to withdraw cash through contactless with Apple Pay and Google. He also said that ATMs should all have the facility to allow for lodgements as well, as businesses did not want to keep cash on their premises overnight. Aontú Senator Sarah O'Reilly said 'that for some, particularly older people, cash is simply what they know and trust. [ Keep accepting cash payments, Michael McGrath tells public bodies Opens in new window ] 'For others working on irregular incomes, cash provides a tangible way to manage budgets, and for victims of domestic violence, having access to and control over cash can be a crucial lifeline to autonomy and safety.' Minister of State Seán Canney told Senators that as of December 2022, there were 4,218 ATMs in operation in a 'good spread' across the country. He said the objectives of the Bill is 'to ensure sufficient and effective access to cash' and to 'provide a framework to manage future changes in cash infrastructure in a fair equitable and transparent manner'. He pointed out that a review would be undertaken if there was more than 15 per cent drop in cash demand in a calendar year. Central Bank data showed that cash withdrawals declined by 9.69 per cent from June 2023 to 2024.
