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South China Morning Post
5 days ago
- Climate
- South China Morning Post
Hong Kong Observatory to enhance AI models after record-breaking downpours
The Hong Kong Observatory has pledged to further develop its artificial intelligence forecasting models to better predict typhoons and rainstorms after producing useful information before the record-breaking downpours earlier this week. Advertisement He Yuheng, acting senior scientific officer at the Hong Kong Observatory, said on Friday that the models successfully predicted the development of a rainband that brought heavy rain to parts of the Guangdong coast, a week before Tuesday's torrential downpour, which led to the city's second-longest black rainstorm warning. On that day, the forecaster measured 358.8mm (14.1 inches) of rainfall at its headquarters in Tsim Sha Tsui as of 5pm, the highest daily rainfall in August since records began in 1884. 'If we look back, one week before Tuesday, we already have several artificial intelligence models that have started capturing the progress of the particularly heavy rain this time,' he said on a radio programme. 'They forecast that there would be a rainband moving from the east to the west, which would affect the coast of Guangdong. It also predicted that some parts of the coast of Guangdong would have a very large amount of accumulated rainfall during 24 hours.' Advertisement But he noted that the models were not completely accurate in pinpointing where the rain would fall. However, it still provided a valuable basis for the Tuesday rainstorm forecast.
South China Morning Post
19-07-2025
- Climate
- South China Morning Post
Are AI-based forecasts changing the way Hong Kong's typhoon watchers work?
As Hong Kong braces for a potential No 8 typhoon warning over the weekend, the local forecaster has taken to using artificial intelligence to analyse global weather data over the past four decades to better predict the paths of tropical cyclones. In an exclusive tour of the Hong Kong Observatory's 'war room', or central forecasting office, the Post learned how scientists monitor the weather around the clock and integrate information from computer models and other sources into preparations for the approaching storm. 'The current generation of AI models relies on approximately 40 years of global reanalysis data [for training],' Lo Ka-wai, a scientific officer at the Observatory, said. 'By learning from this extensive dataset, the AI models can identify the patterns and relationships of weather evolution, which can then be used to predict future weather changes.' Last month, Hong Kong narrowly missed its first No 8 typhoon signal this year. Tropical cyclone Wutip, which is named after the Cantonese word for 'butterfly', made an unexpected turn, sparing the city a direct hit. The Observatory revealed that AI at the time had offered a more accurate prediction of Wutip's trajectory, outperforming traditional numerical weather models that had resulted in significant discrepancies.
