Latest news with #sealevelrise
Asharq Al-Awsat
3 days ago
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Climate Action Could Save Half of World's Vanishing Glaciers
More than three-quarters of the world's glaciers are set to vanish if climate change continues unchecked, a major new study warned Thursday, fueling sea-level rise and jeopardizing water supplies for billions. Published in Science, the international analysis provides the clearest picture yet of long-term glacier loss, revealing that every fraction of a degree in global temperature rise significantly worsens the outlook, reported AFP. It may sound grim, but co-lead author Harry Zekollari, a glaciologist at Vrije Universiteit Brussel and ETH Zurich, told AFP the findings should be seen as a "message of hope." Under existing climate policies, global temperatures are projected to reach 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 -- a pathway that would ultimately erase 76 percent of current glacier mass over the coming centuries. But if warming is held to the Paris Agreement's 1.5C target, 54 percent of glacial mass could be preserved, according to the study, which combined outputs from eight glacier models to simulate ice loss across a range of future climate scenarios. "What is really special about this study is we can really show how every tenth of a degree of additional warming matters," co-lead author Lilian Schuster of the University of Innsbruck told AFP. The paper's release comes as Swiss authorities monitor flood risks following the collapse of the massive Birch Glacier, which destroyed an evacuated village. While Swiss glaciers have been heavily impacted by climate change, it remains unclear how much the latest disaster was driven by warming versus natural geological forces. Cultural and economic importance Glaciers are found on every continent except Australia -- from Mount Kilimanjaro to the Austrian Alps and the Karakoram range in Pakistan. While most are clustered in the polar regions, their presence in mountain ranges across the world makes them vital to local ecosystems, agriculture and human communities. Vast bodies of snow, ice, rock, and sediment that gain mass in winter and lose it in summer, glaciers formed in the Earth's deep past when conditions were far colder than today. Their meltwater sustains rivers critical for farming, fisheries, and drinking water. Their loss can have profound ripple effects, from disrupting tourism economies to eroding cultural heritage. In recent years, symbolic glacier funerals have been held in Iceland, Switzerland and Mexico. "The question I always get is, why are you a glaciologist in Belgium?" said Zekollari. "Well -- sea level rise. Glaciers melt everywhere on Earth... and that affects coastal defenses even in places far from mountains." Around 25 percent of current sea-level rise is attributed to glacier melt. Even if all fossil fuel use stopped today, the study finds that 39 percent of glacier mass loss is already locked in -- enough to raise sea levels by at least 113 millimeters (4.4 inches). Uneven impacts One key finding of the study is that some glaciers are far more vulnerable than others -- and the global average obscures drastic regional losses. Glaciers in the European Alps, the Rockies of the US and Canada, and Iceland are expected to lose nearly all their ice at 2C of warming -- the fallback goal of the Paris accord. In the central and eastern Himalayas, whose rivers support hundreds of millions of people, only 25 percent of glacier ice would remain at 2C. By contrast, the west of the range may retain 60 percent of its ice at the same temperature thanks to its wide range of elevations, which allows some glaciers to persist at colder, higher altitudes, said Shuster. Glacier loss is already affecting communities. In a related commentary in Science, Cymene Howe and Dominic Boyer of Rice University describe how the retreat of Oregon's Glisan Glacier has imperiled orchards, fisheries, and the cultural heritage of the Indigenous Quinault people. "Unfortunately we'll lose a lot, but with ambitious targets we can still save many of these glaciers -- which are not only beautiful, but vital for water supply, sea-level regulation, tourism, hydroelectricity, spiritual values, ecology, and more," said Zekollari.
Gizmodo
24-05-2025
- Science
- Gizmodo
Rising Seas Could Displace Millions, Triggering Global Migration Crisis, Study Warns
Scientists issue a dire warning that even the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target is too high and will have catastrophic consequences for coastal populations. Sea level rise will force millions of people to flee coastal regions, even at just 1.5 degrees Celsius of global heating, according to a new study. The authors of the study warn that even current warming levels could lead to multiple feet of sea level rise by the end of the century, posing dire consequences for coast-dwellers. The study, published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, suggests that even at 1.2 degrees C above the pre-industrial average—our current average level of warming—could lead to catastrophic sea level rise and mass migration. If current trends persist, 'You're going to see massive land migration on scales that we've never witnessed since modern civilization,' Jonathan Bamber, study co-author and glaciologist at the University of Bristol, told CNN. Seas will rise due to the rapid loss of ice sheets from Greenland and Antarctica, which has quadrupled since the 1990s and is now the biggest source of sea level rise. In the study, a team of scientists from the U.K. and the U.S. used evidence from warm periods up to 3 million years ago, recent trends in ice loss, and climate models to predict future ice sheet change under several climate scenarios. Looking back, they found that about 15,000 years ago, at the end of the last Ice Age, the rate of sea level rise was 10-fold greater than it is today. The last time carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were as high as today, about 3 million years ago, the sea level was 33 to 66 feet (10 to 20 meters) above where it is now. Multiple meters of sea level rise are in our future even if we rapidly and drastically cut back on fossil fuels to hit the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees C of warming above the pre-industrial average, the authors found. That target, which was thought to be the best way to prevent the worst impacts of climate change, has almost slipped away. Alarmingly, the new study finds that 1.2 degrees C would generate several meters of sea level rise. The safe limit, the authors found, is likely below 1 degree C. The researchers said that more research is needed to determine the actual tipping point. We're currently on track for up to 2.9 degrees Celsius of global heating, at which point it's pretty much a certainty that ice sheets in Greenland and west Antarctica will completely collapse. The melting of those ice sheets would cause 40 feet (12 meters) of sea level rise. Currently, one billion people live within 32 feet of sea level and around 230 million people live within 3 feet of sea level. 'People need to be aware that sea level rise is likely to accelerate to rates that are very difficult to adapt to—rates of one centimeter per year are not out of the question within the lifetime of our young people,' Chris Stokes, a climate scientist at Durham University and lead author of the study, said in a statement. The average global temperature hit 1.5 degrees C for the first time last year, although it hasn't quite hit the 1.5 degrees C average yet. There's still time to do something about all of this, though. The authors urge immediate, urgent climate action to slow the worst impacts of sea level rise—every inch counts. 'We are not necessarily saying that all is lost at 1.5 degrees C, but we are saying that every fraction of a degree really matters for the ice sheets—and the sooner we can halt the warming the better, because this makes it far easier to return to safer levels further down the line,' Stokes said in a statement.
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Reason Aussies will no longer be able to visit popular holiday islands: 'Very worrying'
As the weather cools around Australia, tropical islands to the north are the perfect escape. But if you've been putting off travel, then this is the wake-up call you might need to go now rather than later. Ice is melting and sea levels are rising faster than previously thought, and scientists are pretty sure low-lying regions of the South Pacific like Vanuatu, Tuvalu, and Micronesia will be lost over the next century, meaning you won't be able to visit them anymore. Global warming currently sits at 1.2 degrees above temperatures before the world industrialised. The Paris Agreement sets a target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, but even if world leaders and industry slash emissions enough to somehow meet that target, new analysis indicates we won't be able to stop accelerated melting of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. Sea level rises over the next centuries will likely be metres, an international team led by Durham University found, after it reviewed the world's best available data. Lead author and geologist Dr Professor Chris Stokes warned the melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will see 'rates of one centimetre per year not out of the question within the lifetime of our young people'. Speaking with Yahoo News from the UK, Stokes explained the problems aren't something to worry about in the distant future, they're already occurring. Asked if he was 'worried', his answer was blunt. 'I'm very worried,' he said. What he's concerned about is the future of the 230 million people who live in an area vulnerable to one metre of sea level rise. 'If you look at the evidence we've presented in our paper, that means we'll have to move a couple of hundred million people, or spend money on coastal defences. Unfortunately, some of the worst-affected countries are those that can least afford to protect themselves,' he said. Any country with a coastline is potentially vulnerable to these kinds of issues, but even landlocked countries may be impacted by migration. This is happening now, but the higher the warming and the longer it is sustained, the greater the sea level rise will be, and the more it will cost us in the long run to adapt.' Globally, there is cause for concern when it comes to slowing global warming. Under the Trump administration, the United States is withdrawing from commitments to tackle the problem, and doubling down on the extraction of fossil fuels — the primary contributor of man-made climate change. Even countries like Australia, which have net-zero ambitions, are continuing to approve large numbers of new fossil fuel projects. The nation is the third largest exporter of fossil fuels in the world and during the 2023-24 financial year, taxpayers handed over $14.5 billion in subsidies to these projects. 💵 EnergyAustralia apologises to 400,000 customers over now deleted website claims 🏝️ Incredible photos show Aussie tourist town on the beach set to disappear 🏠 Driveway photo shows major shift homeowners are making across Australia As the scientists released their new report, which was published in the journal Communications, Earth and Environment, they urged leaders to pay attention to the 'emergency' that's unfolding. 'If you look at what a definition of an emergency is, it's an existential threat that requires immediate action,' Stokes said. 'Yes, things are moving in the right direction, but from a sea level rise perspective, they are not moving anywhere near quickly enough. There has to be a change in our ambition around the need for rapid and drastic cuts in emissions. 'The issue quickly becomes politicised — climate action is going to cost a lot of money and jobs if we aim for net zero by 2030, 2050, 2070. But it will cost an awful lot more if we don't take action. Sea level rise is not going to go away, this is not something we can push under the carpet, it's going to get worse and worse.' Love Australia's weird and wonderful environment? 🐊🦘😳 Get our new newsletter showcasing the week's best stories.
Washington Post
21-05-2025
- Science
- Washington Post
Earth may already be too hot for the survival of polar ice sheets
Ten years ago, policymakers and nation states set the world's most important climate goal: limiting planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). If the Earth could stay below that threshold, a climate catastrophe and major rise in sea levels might be staved off. But a group of scientists have demonstrated that if the world stays on course to warm up to 1.5 degrees — or even stays at its current level of 1.2 degrees above preindustrial levels — polar ice sheets will probably continue to quickly melt, causing seas to rise and displacing coastal communities, according to a study published Tuesday in Communications Earth and Environment. 'There was a kind of misunderstanding that 1.5 was going to solve all our problems,' said Chris Stokes, a professor at Durham University in England who focuses on glaciers and ice sheets, and an author of the study. Now, the team surmised that limit is closer to around 1 degree Celsius, though more research is needed to come to an official conclusion. The team focused on Greenland and Antarctica, behemoth ice sheets that together could raise global sea levels by more than 210 feet if they melted. They are losing around 370 billion metric tons of ice each year at a rate that has quadrupled since the 1990s. To come to their analyses, scientists pored over more than 150 research papers and focused on three aspects of sea-level rise: recent observations of rapidly melting ice sheets, modeling that uses equations to predict how temperatures could affect the rates of ice melting and past sea-level change tens of thousands of years ago. To help gauge how high sea levels could rise over the coming centuries, scientists have looked back at what happened the last time the Earth was as warm as it is now: roughly 125,000 years ago, during a period known to scientists as the Last Interglacial. Back then, research shows, a wobble in Earth's orbit had changed how much sunlight hit the northern hemisphere, raising global temperatures. The warmer conditions allowed Neanderthals to venture into northern Europe. Mammoths and giant ground sloths migrated poleward. And the ice caps covering the Arctic and Antarctica began to melt, raising sea levels around the world. A vast array of ancient evidence — including ice cores, fossils, deep sea sediments and even octopus DNA — allowed the researchers to reconstruct how this sea-level rise unfolded. For example, ancient coral reefs found 25 feet above the current sea surface mark where the water once reached. Bits of bedrock uncovered in the middle of the ocean reveal how icebergs calved off disintegrating glaciers and then drifted across the sea. This research into Earth's ancient climate has revealed that ice sheet collapse depends on complex processes and can happen at surprising speed. Pulses of sudden sea-level rise, when the ocean surface may have risen multiple feet in less than a century, indicated that the ice sheets could have crossed temperature thresholds that caused them to shed mass all at once. The scientists then fed their findings into computer models of the Earth system, allowing them to confirm that the models' outputs matched what actually occurred. This gave them confidence in the models' forecasts for the future, and the results were sobering. 'Every fraction of a degree matters,' said Andrea Dutton, a research professor at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, who was a co-author of the study. 'We can't just adapt to this type of sea-level rise. We can't just engineer our way out of this.' Around 230 million people live within about three feet of sea level, the researchers noted. Over the coming centuries, if the Earth stays at the same temperature, the sea could rise several meters, displacing entire cities and even states. Because of gravitational effects, said Stokes, places closer to the equator, including Pacific islands like Micronesia and some Caribbean islands, will experience more sea-level rise. 'It's an existential threat,' he said. 'Some of these entire states are going to be underwater in a few centuries.'
Daily Mail
20-05-2025
- Science
- Daily Mail
Experts re-evaluate global warming targets, Pointing to risks at 1.5°C
Since 2015, almost every country on Earth has been bound by the Paris Agreement to try and keep global warming below 1.5°C. But climate scientists now warn that this limit is too high. Researchers from the University of Durham say that the world needs to stay within just 1°C of the pre-industrial average to avoid a catastrophic sea level rise. With current warming levels already at 1.2°C, that means the world needs to seriously cool down to avoid disaster. While the researchers recognise that 1.5°C is an 'admirable' goal, they found there was 'no evidence to suggest it will halt or even slow the rate of SLR [Sea Level Rise] from the world's ice sheets.' Lead author Professor Chris Stokes told MailOnline that the 'best case scenario' for current targets is one where sea levels continue to show 'slow and steady' increases. 'The problem of sea-level rise is here to stay and will affect future generations, even if we limit warming to 1.5°C,' he said. 'If the current rate of acceleration continues, then we could see [sea level rises of] 10 mm per year towards the end of this century - that's within the lifetime of our youngest children.' The Paris Agreement is a legally binding treaty which requires signatories to limit the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels - the average temperature between 1850 and 1900. The agreement also requires countries to pursue efforts to 'limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. This is because going beyond 1.5°C has been determined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to risk unleashing far more severe consequences such as increased flooding, droughts, heatwaves, and storms. In their new paper, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, Professor Stokes and his co-authors investigated what this would mean for the world's ice sheets. Meltwater from these ice sheets is the biggest contributor to rising sea levels, and, together, they hold enough water to increase sea levels by a whopping 65 metres. Even at current rates of warming, the mass loss from these ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s, with 370 billion tonnes of ice melting each year. The researchers combined this data with computer simulations of how ice sheets might lose mass in different warming levels, and evidence from slightly warmer periods in Earth's history caused by natural variations in how the planet orbits the sun. Together, this evidence suggests that 1.5°C of warming is too high to save the world's ice sheets. Co-author Professor Andrea Dutton, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, says: 'Evidence recovered from past warm periods suggests that several metres of sea level rise – or more – can be expected when global mean temperature reaches 1.5°C or higher. Furthermore, this evidence also suggests that the longer those warm temperatures are sustained, the greater the impact on ice melt and resulting sea-level rise.' Sea-level increases on this scale will be extremely difficult and hugely expensive for the world to adapt to. Current estimates suggest that there are 230 million people living within one metre of sea level. The researchers say this melting ice represents an 'existential threat' to entire communities and nations lying in this zone. But even smaller increases will be devastating, as one recent study estimates that just a 20cm rise in sea levels by 2050 would lead to average global flood losses of $1 trillion or more per year for the world's 136 largest coastal cities. What makes this especially worrying is that ice melt is essentially irreversible, meaning every millimetre of sea level increase is permanent. Co-author Professor Rob DeConto, of the University of Massachusetts Amherst, says: 'It is important to stress that these accelerating changes in the ice sheets and their contributions to sea level should be considered permanent on multi-generational timescales. Even if the Earth returns to its pre-industrial temperature, it will still take hundreds to perhaps thousands of years for the ice sheets to recover. If too much ice is lost, parts of these ice sheets may not recover until the Earth enters the next ice age.' This is why the researchers say it is so important to act now to limit warming in the first place, before the world's ice sheets are lost for good. Although they say that more research is needed to discover the 'safe' temperature for the ice sheets, aiming for a temperature increase of just 1°C is a good place to start. Professor Stokes adds: 'Put another way, and perhaps it is a reason for hope, we only have to go back to the early 1990s to find a time when the ice sheets looked far healthier. Global temperatures were around 1°C above pre-industrial back then and carbon dioxide concentrations were 350 parts per million, which others have suggested is a much safer limit for planet Earth. What is very clear is that the sooner we slow and stop the warming, the easier it will be to return to safe levels.' Want more stories like this from the Daily Mail? Hit the follow button above for more of the news you need.
