Latest news with #seasonality
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P 500's Banner Rally Faces Off With Worst Two Months of Year
(Bloomberg) — The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC), coming off its best streak of gains since 2020, is about to enter what has historically been its toughest stretch of the year. The World's Data Center Capital Has Residents Surrounded An Abandoned Art-Deco Landmark in Buffalo Awaits Revival Budapest's Most Historic Site Gets a Controversial Rebuild San Francisco in Talks With Vanderbilt for Downtown Campus Boston's Dumpsters Overflow as Trash-Strike Summer Drags On Over the past three decades, the benchmark has performed the worst in August and September, losing 0.7% on average in each month, compared with a 1.1% gain on average across other months, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Analysts attribute the pattern in part to money managers' tendency to reassess their portfolios around this time of year. That seasonality risks adding to a sense on Wall Street that the record run in equities may be due for a breather, with valuations looking stretched and some key events approaching. First off, investors will watch Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision to see whether Chair Jerome Powell lays the groundwork for interest-rate cuts this year, or if he signals more time is needed to observe the impact of tariffs on the economy. 'If Powell signals no rate cuts are coming for the foreseeable future, traders will be disappointed, and it may fuel a brief selloff,' said Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research. 'Any piece of bad news could cause the stock market to pull back.' So far, the S&P 500 has staged a stunning rebound, soaring 28% over the past 75 sessions through Friday — its biggest advance in such a span since stocks recovered from a brutal selloff in the depths of the pandemic in 2020, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Asset Management. The surge pushed investors off the sidelines and back into the market, propelled by a reprieve from President Donald Trump's tariff offensive. Sensitive Time But any shift in tariff news, economic data or corporate earnings could trigger a stock selloff in the sensitive months of August and September. It's a period when investors returning from summer vacations tend to reassess portfolio positioning and go on the defensive; companies prepare their budgets for the coming year and ponder belt tightening; and mutual funds sell positions at a loss to reduce the size of their capital-gains distributions. Of course, the past is not prologue. August has eked out positive returns in five of the previous 10 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. And while traders' stock exposure has continued to climb, it's still only modestly overweight, according to Deutsche Bank's (DB) analysis of rules-based and discretionary strategies. That clears the path for investors to buy equities in the weeks ahead after money managers rolled back exposures to US stocks to levels not seen since late May, according to a poll by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. 'This rally is certainly due for a pause or a pullback, but any declines will likely be shallow and short-lived,' said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna. 'Stocks may buck some of the weak seasonality trends.' In fact, Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the rally has more room to grind higher, albeit at a more moderate pace. 'I'm more concerned this rally will keep chugging along and people will miss out because once we get past all of this week's events, it may turn out to be bullish for stocks in the short-run if things aren't as bad as feared,' Hirsch said. That said, commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, which typically buy stocks when index prices rise and sell when they decline, currently hold long equity positions in the 94th percentile — the highest levels since January 2020, Deutsche Bank data show. While that signals confidence in equities, it also increases the risk of sharp reversals should market conditions change, according to Murphy. To Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, seasonality shows evidence of equities peaking in mid-August. Any jump in bond yields, which risks boosting corporate borrowing costs, would also darken the outlook. 'The warning signs I'm looking out for are if yields move dramatically higher, positioning flips more defensive and weakening breadth, but none of that is happening right now,' Newton said. Burning Man Is Burning Through Cash It's Not Just Tokyo and Kyoto: Tourists Descend on Rural Japan Everyone Loves to Hate Wind Power. Scotland Found a Way to Make It Pay Off Cage-Free Eggs Are Booming in the US, Despite Cost and Trump's Efforts Russia Builds a New Web Around Kremlin's Handpicked Super App ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign up for the Yahoo Finance Morning Brief By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
The Sun
6 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
Top cider brand pulled from UK supermarket shelves, pubs & restaurants forever in ‘huge loss'
A POPULAR cider brand based in the UK has officially ceased operations. The company made the announcement after just eight years in business. 2 Jaspels was set up on the Welsh island of Anglesey in 2017 by Janet and Adrian Percival, a trained bio-chemist. The pair initially put out a call on social media for apple donors to help launch the business. Jaspels went on to thrive, with the company taking on a production unit in Amlwch. Their cider was served up at pubs, restaurants, and stores on Anglesey and mainland Britain. Company statement In a recent statement, the company cited seasonality challenges, lease issues, and a change in personal circumstances as the main reasons for closure. "Jaspels has closed for a number of reasons," Janet wrote in a Facebook post. She went on to discuss the "unfair lease conditions" her company had encountered. "The estate went back on the initial agreement terms and we were only offered 12 months lease," she said. "This made a significant impact on the future planning of the business and impossible to make the cider on those terms." After already changing locations once, Janet explained they "could not possibly move the business again". Scotland Lifts 44-Year Football Booze Ban: Inside Ayr United's Historic Pilot Scheme She continued to say "seasonality challenges made it unviable in the end". "A change of personal circumstances also meant we could not continue as myself and Ade separated due to stress," Janet added. While she left the business in November 2024, it officially ceased operation this month. She closed out her message by thanking Jaspels' loyal patrons over the years. "I would like to say that we loved every moment of Jaspels and will miss the barn and bar massively," Janet said. NHS guidelines on drinking alcohol According to the NHS, regularly drinking more than 14 units of alcohol a week risks damaging your health. To keep health risks from alcohol to a low level if you drink most weeks: men and women are advised not to drink more than 14 units a week on a regular basis spread your drinking over 3 or more days if you regularly drink as much as 14 units a week if you want to cut down, try to have several drink-free days each week If you're pregnant or think you could become pregnant, the safest approach is not to drink alcohol at all to keep risks to your baby to a minimum. You read more on the NHS website. "It is very sad for the island and ourselves." Jaspels Anglesey Craft Cider is an award-winning brand, with a Sustainable Business Award, a Silver Medal, and the Best Newcomer award at the Welsh Perry and Cider Society Championships among the accolades. Customer reaction Customers shared their sadness at the news, with locals offering fond farewells to the location. "That is sad news, as quite often I'd cycle past and pick up a bottle or have a refreshing glass of cider there. I hope they reopen somewhere," wrote one fan. "Very sad news indeed. A lovely venue on a sunny day," said another person. A third commenter described the news as a "huge loss" to the island and drinks industry. More on drinks Plus, the supermarket own-brand prosecco that's been dubbed "better than Selfridges". And Tesco has slashed the price of a popular and award-winning liqueur. A round-up of the 24 best acohol-free drinks currently available. Plus, an award-winning Caribbean rum that makes the perfect cocktails. And the best rose deals you can nab for the perfect summer treat.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How to use market patterns to master your portfolio
Listen and subscribe to Stocks In Translation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite to trade smarter? Follow market this episode of Stocks in Translation, Stock Trader's Almanac editor in chief Jeffrey Hirsch joins host Jared Blikre and Senior Reporter Allie Canal to explore market cycles and seasonality in trading. Hirsch unpacks how patterns like the election cycles, monthly seasonality, and investor sentiment provide clues for market behavior, especially as we enter the typically weak months of August and a week, Stocks In Translation cuts through the market mayhem, noisy numbers and hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. You can find more episodes here, or watch on your favorite streaming service. This post was written by Lauren Pokedoff
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How to use market patterns to master your portfolio
Listen and subscribe to Stocks In Translation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite to trade smarter? Follow market this episode of Stocks in Translation, Stock Trader's Almanac editor in chief Jeffrey Hirsch joins host Jared Blikre and Senior Reporter Allie Canal to explore market cycles and seasonality in trading. Hirsch unpacks how patterns like the election cycles, monthly seasonality, and investor sentiment provide clues for market behavior, especially as we enter the typically weak months of August and a week, Stocks In Translation cuts through the market mayhem, noisy numbers and hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. You can find more episodes here, or watch on your favorite streaming service. This post was written by Lauren Pokedoff Welcome to Stocks and Translation. Yahoo Finance's video podcast that cuts through the market mayhem, the noisy numbers, and the hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. I'm Jared Blickery, your host, and back with me is Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal, who's in for the voice of the people. And our guest today is one of the OG experts on seasonality. So we're gonna beTalking a lot about market cycles today. These are the patterns that repeat over time. And that is our phrase of the day, market cycles. What goes around comes around. If you can read the market tea leaves, how to use repeating patterns to pad your portfolio. And this episode is brought to you by the number $3.96 trillion. That is the value of all crypto digital assets into the big leagues alongside stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate. And without further delay, let's welcome back our guest, our next guest for the next 20 minutes, Jeff Hirsch. He is the editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, publisher of the Almanac Investor Newsletter, and the wealth wise podcast. You can catch his work at stocktraders Jeff has spent a lifetime turning seasonal quirks into trading edges. He computerized his dad's hand-drawn spreadsheets and coined catchphrases of his own, and it is great to have you back here. So Jeff, thank you. You bet. Um, a lot has gone on this year, but let's start off where we are in the year we're kind of closing out July here. What, what can we expect for theNext few months, if history repeats, that's a big if here. Well, it's always a big if, but it has repeated quite a bit over the years, at least rhymed. Um, as everyone knows, likely from the almanac, August, September, the worst two months of the year. We've had quite a run from April through July. Uh, we're looking at adding some more on here and my seasonal charts, especially for the post-election a little bit of weakness in August, September. I'm not looking for anything sinister. We had a pretty solid correction back there in in April. Um, things didn't get as bad as everyone feared. And, um, fourth quarter looks pretty strong. We're probably gonna end up close to 20% again. That's a, that's a big claim.20% because we had that each of the last two years and a lot of people said we were not goingto see that again. I didn't think we were going to get it. That was the sort of lower probability, best case scenario that we put out in our forecast in December of 24. We had sort of waffled back a little bit when things were looking sketchy, where we might get a kind of a flatter year, but, um,The charts are telling us otherwise. There's a lot of, a lot of bullishness out there. I'm just worried that we've got too much bullishness out there and it's starting to wane a little bit, right? And thatwas my question because what if we start to see the tariff impact trickle through into some of that hard data which we haven't seen to the extent that economists have warned, but if CPI comes in really high in October, November, what does that say about where we could endup the year? I think it starts to hit in 26. I'm expecting more of that to impact the market in 206 along with the midterm we haven't really seen some of that, that impact in, in the hard data yet. But one thing with inflation, you know, it raises stock prices too. Stocks are asset prices, you have all prices go up. So it's lifting stocks somewhat, and we haven't seen it really come through. I mean, we have some, um, inflation projection charts that we work, that we look at. Yeah, there's some, some monthly tweaks here and there, but for the most part, it's pretty close to the, the targets that the Fed has. I mean, the whole Fed interest rate thing is another discussion, but, um,If it starts to come in, you know, maybe, maybe we'll get that, uh, October bottom like we often get that we've had many years. So that might impact the September, you know, August, September period as well. That isa perfect segue into our phrase of the day, which is market cycles, and these are recurring waves of asset gains and pullbacks that move through four main stages growth, peak, decline, recovery, and, uh, we see this play out and I'm talking about market cycles here, which is related to seasonality. Seasonality, we think more in terms of the but tie it all together for us because your work is based in large part upon these market cycles. And how did you come about them? How did your father Yal Hirsch, who founded the stock traders Almanac, come about this? Well, I mean, he, he worked at a place called Indicator Digest back in the 60s and they compiled all the indicators and his whole uhYou know, epiphany was to, to, when he went out and started the Almanac, was to take all the market cycles, patterns, recurring trends and put them into the almanac in the calendar format so he could follow the market schedule along with his own. It was kind of his personal workbook. Um, one of the main cycles we look at is the 4 year cycle that I alluded to a few times here, the 4 year presidential election cycle, which, you know, you have different seasonal patterns within the different election know, having, uh, the only real major, you know, nation in the world have the election of its leader every 4 years on the same exact day creates a pattern. Um, you've got the 1st 2 years usually being a little difficult, though the post-election years have been better recently, but we have seen this midterm year be quite. That would be 2026. 2026 is which is what I'm concerned about.I've heard some other old school cycle people talking about 26 as well. Our old friend Larry Williams, who I had on my podcast originally, uh, my, my, you know, inaugural episode, uh, who, who's known me since I was little, but, uh, you know, he discovered them just by observing it. And, you know, one of the things with the, the counter effect that we see is that each month is we're coming into August. We just put out our August Outlook, uh, August Almanac, excuse me, on the newsletter, and the 1st 8 or 9 days of August tend to be weak, whereas generally the beginnings of months are a little bit stronger. But, you know, I saw one of your producers on the way in, she's going away, I'm going away, you see this sort ofvacation season impact the market. People go out to the Hamptons, as, as you know, the saying goes. So you gotta watch out for each month being a little bit different based upon the quarterly patterns of, of institutions that impact, you know, September and March and June and December, quite a few things going on out there. Youbrought up indicators, and I know we don't have a perfect indicator, and it's very evident when we look even at sentiment and survey data, even our indicator for recessions, two negative quarters of GDP that all hasn't always worked out that way. So what do you look at when you assess all the various indicators out there that may serve as that warning sign to you that things are starting to turn a little bit? Um, tops are a lot harder to call than bottoms. Bottoms are a reactive period. That sentiment indicator stuff that you were mentioning works very well at at bottoms. Bull bullish indications can stay bullish for a long time. We see that capitulation like we did in, um, in April was pretty clear. We look at new highs, new lows, advanced combine fundamentals, technicals with our seasonal work, monetary policy, and sentiment. I look at investors intelligence, um, bullish and bears present advisors, which, um, has been great again at bottoms at tops it's very hard to call tops. We use a MacD indicator for our seasonal work and we use a longer MacD, a longer period, the 1226 9 that everyone moving average convergence vergence. We're gonna show a little uh definition above somebody's shoulder here, but when we look for the, the bottom, the buy in like October, we use the 8179. It's a shorter, faster MaD because bottoms are an event, tops are a process. So, you know, there's a bit of an art to it, um, and you have to rely on different things as, as, you know, the market evolves, but you know, combination of seasonals, fundamentals, technicals really helps. Yeah, I like that you're calling it an art, um, and it requires you being adaptive as well. So what are some of the tools that you've developed in recent years?That you didn't have maybe earlier on or just things that you have observed to have changed over the last few years. Well, Imean, the, the monthly patterns have changed quite a bit. It used to be the last day of the month and the first four of the new month that were where all the market's gains were made. Now we see it spread out throughout the month. We see the mid-month sort of strength from the injection of capital from 401ks and, and, uh, IRAs and that sort of thing. Everyone just sort of the payroll deductions going right into the to the market, know, uh, seasonality has, has shifted a little bit. We've, we've added NASDAQ's best 8 months, which goes from November to June. We just had our cell signal, uh, a week or so ago for the NASDAQ best 8 months with our MacD you know, you, you've got to look at technology and um it seems to be impacting the market and it's, it's not quite as uh perfect as it used to be where we just had this run from November to April and the market went sort of sideways May to October. So things shift a little bit. Do you think we're in a healthy bull market right now? We've been talking a lot this week about meme stocks. It's been called skinny in other yeah, I'm getting, it's a little bit skinny though. I haven't, haven't seen the breadth. Yeah, the meme stock stuff has us concerned as I, uh, you know, we're seeing that wall of worry get smaller. You know, all of the stuff that we were concerned about with the tariffs and, um, the international trade deal and even, and even the, the geopolitical, you know, um, turmoil stuff has, has sort of, you know, dissipated somewhat. So what's, what, what will worries is the market still climbing? You were, you mentioned that you were talking about the sentiment getting a little bullish. So does that tie into what we're seeing in the meme stocks right now? Is that kind of part of it? Most definitely. I think it's, it's very much part of it, crypto also, but we're, you know, our charts, are seasonal work, especially here in the post last year shows that, you know, that, that, that summer peak tends to go towards the end of July, and we're coming in here we are, and here we are. We've got a bunch of trade deals that just came out, or at least the big one with Japan today that, that's great, you know, world, but you know, what, what else are we gonna? We got the big beautiful bill. We got a lot of stuff accomplished. It would be what's next? Yeah, it would be kind of perfect for the stocks to sail into that August 1st deadline that was supposed to be the big thing and then just kind of peter off and be a sell the news event or a meh news event, something like that. Well, it's also that, that seasonal period. a lot of the stuff is converging right together here. The end of all this good news, the seasonal week period, people are gonna start taking off. I mean,We were talking outside, you're ready to go, uh, get, get some. I know you're dressed for it, you know, uh, I'm going away, you know, it's, it's, it's gonna happen. And then what happens in September is, it's, you know, the, it's the 3rd quarter. You get people coming back to school, back to work. They start, you know, window dressing their portfolios, selling losers, trying to gear up their, their, their, their, you know, accounts, their, um, positions for the end of the year, that 4th quarter rally. So,We've seen a lot of this end of September into early October, um, volatility and, you know, churning of, of, uh, of, of, of portfolios and it's pretty much what the institutions are doing. And you were just talking about how the meme trade that's concerned you a little bit recently. How is this different from what we saw in 2020, 2021? Are you as concerned as you were then, or wereyou concerned then? Or were you just riding the GameStop to obliviate or highs? Now, I remember myson came into my office home office and said something was an AMC right there? Yeah, I wrote a contrary indicator right there, yeah, exactly. And I put it in the back of the almanac that shows, uh, you know, how do you, um, you got to keep track of, uh, what, what people tell you. It's, you know, if you don't profit from your investment mistakes, somebody else will. So there's a spreadsheet in the back so you can write down who told you about it, what the stock did, we were just talking about that today, my partner and I, and it's very similar to 21. The only difference is that was kind of like peaking around November. Everybody was wearing masks too. I mean, it was a different vibe on the street. Yeah, there was, what was it, the Omicron or Omega? What was that? There was that yeah, that came out was the one I caught in December, I think of 2021. Oh, you got, yeah, I got it in, in May, but all right, anyway, we're going up. Yeah, yeah, we gotta hold that thought right there because we are, we need to take a short break. Coming up, we're gonna be talking about the future of tech and crypto and a scrum meets birdie runway showdown. Stay episode is brought to you by the number $3.96 trillion. That is the value of, uh, the total value of all crypto assets as Bitcoin hovers near all-time highs, and Ethereum just broke through $4000. Yet again, uh, so Jeff, you're not all seasonality here. I know you have a lot of interest in, uh, big tech, AI, some new trends here, biotech, quantum computing. Let's talk about that for a few minutes. Sure, I mean, this is, this is all part of uh our longer term outlook that what we call the super boom, um, which is based upon, uh, you know,Inflation and the end of like peace time and also uh technology culturally, what I call a culturally enabling paradigm shifting technology. This is something that Yale discovered back in the 70s where we see these moves after these, these postwar periods of 500% or more. Um we came out with this in 2010, this forecast for Dow 38,820 when it was about 10, Dow10,000 was a big prediction at one time too, so it was, uh, Yale's prediction back in 1976 was now 3420 from what it was like, wow, 670 intraday low. So, um, but the technology aspect continues to build and it's, it's like the, the tech stack, which is, I guess, you know, the, the newer buzzwords. I mean, we're seeing Bitcoin, which I just, I just put a, a, a page back in the almanac for next year, the, the best investment books of the year. And one of the books is, uh, Scaramucci's little book of Bitcoin, which really talks about Bitcoin as the technology that it is sort of like the, uh, it's like money data. Uh, and it's a, it's a fun short read, but it's really about, um, you know, the, the technology and how it's a game changer and we're seeing AI and Bitcoin. Quantum computing hasn't even really been been failed yet. It was in one of my list of technologies in the update for the super boom. So,I would love to find out more about quantum computing. I saw a couple of videos about it, butit's still, it concerns me because if it does what it's supposed to do, there's gonna be a moment where all of, all of, um,All basically codes that we use for banking, for everything, for personalization, keep our personal data free or excuse me, keep our personal data secure, all of that disappears in one fell swoop just because they're so much more powerful than regular computers and they can crack all the codes instantaneously. That's the moment I'm waiting for. So ithasn't happened. I have to change my passwords again. It's gonna be more like you can't change your password to something that will work, um, unless you're employing some quantum computer scheme. Uh, obviously I'm than technology, but that's just my understanding. That's, that's interesting, you know, with, with AI, if, if, you know, one of the things I found there is that, you know, it's the whole garbage in garbage out discussion there. It's great. I use it. I'm starting to use it more. I really plan on doing a lot with it with with the almanacs seasonal stuff, but I've found a lot of errors there. Like, like I was asking it about the stagflation question, you know, just because somebody was had mentioned it's like, what, what's really going on there? And they threw out erroneous GDP data. Like, I know what GDP revised but not that. No, it wasn't, it was just old and I kept still says former President Trump, by the way, if you doesn't register. He's president again. While there's technology, you know, is great and it's, it's definitely driving this boom. Um, I think there's some other, you know, parts of it that are working, but it's still early. I think, um, about a year or so ago I was equating it to about the Windows 95 moment, uh, which was like 92 983 when I. Operating system that was, but it, it was, but it was, um, the beginning of that, thatperiod. I mean the beginning of the Windows like the gooey experience for PCs and that'swhen I took, um, you were saying how I converted all dad's spreadsheets. First I did Excel for DAS like in '92 or whatever that's hardcore, my friend. I'm not hardcore. I have, I have, I have somebody else who knows that now, but I think we're still in those early stages, like in the early mid 90s period for AI. How quickly can we see this super boom then is it and how long does it last? It can last a lot longer. It's not necessarily a time thing. Usually events end it, so it's, it's not, it's not necessarily, um, a certain time frame. It's until something changes like things that, that changed these, these booms like in '82, uh, we had, you know, Reagan come in and and change things around. Volcker stamped out the stamped out inflation had the microprocessor and that went, you know, up 1500, to 2000. So, you know, that could be 18 years. Let's say we started in what, 2013, where the, not the bottom of the, the second. That was when theS&P made new highs for the first time because you had that, that mountain top from the dot-com boom to the global financial crisis boom. You had that 2000 and then 2008 and then the 2013. That was when it broke through. And then it finally we got a clincher when we had that little bear market bottom, one of those short ones in, in February which were real. China was in the, uh, focus there. So it can go on for a while and we just upped our forecast to over 60,000 Dow just because it was based on the Dow because of, you know, instead of taking it from the March 9 low, we moved it to the, the 2013, um, low before we broke out. So it's still going and we're gonna, we might have a, uh, a garden variety cyclical bear market next year, which I think is probably more likely than not, or at least 50/50 at this point, maybe a little but that doesn't stop the whole secular bowl and the and the super boom, right? Yeah, I guess that was my question. What stops the super boom? What comes after? And could you just have a new iteration of the super boom depending on what we see? We'vehad several of them. I mean, after World War I, you know, we had the roaring 20s, I don't think, uh, was it Ed Giardini's been talking about the roaring 2020s and etc. We had one, after World War keep coming. I mean, have you read any of the, the 4th turning stuff? Oh my gosh, we were just talking about we've been in the midst of the 4th for two generations now. I think we talked about Gen X before. I think, I think it's, uh, you know, my, I think my kids or that that that generation that's gonna be part of the 4th turning, it's gonna that's supposed to happen. It'sdisruption. It's been happening for 25 years. By not according to the guys who wrotethe, but they started talking about it. I read of 1st 5000 or 25 years ago. So anyway, um, what, oh, so I don't think we touched on biotech yet. What are, what are you involved in? What do you like in biotech and where do you see thatgoing? I think AI is gonna help that. Um, it's been, you know, elusive for a little while. It's starting to pick up again. Uh, I think it took a bit of a, a hit when RFK, uh, Junior came into, uh, the White House, butUm, people are talking about, you know, clients living at 100 years old and how to plan for their wealth. Uh, there's biotech in there. Um, think about the wealth gap that just kind of gets out of control. If you don't have to worry about inheritance, it's potentially. I, I, it, it's, there's so many more people that need need so many more things that biotech is, is, um, I think it's been stalled a little bit. I think it's ready to to move again. It's a, it's a sector that I love, but, um, it hasn't done all that great the last severalyears. That is for sure. All right, we got to spend a little time here to get to today's runway battle, and we have two sports, 2 mindsets, and 2 catwalks. On stage left, catwalk left is the rugby grit and momentum smashing through market tackles to grab extra yards of alpha and on catwalk right is the golf swing, all about quiet concentration, plotting each stroke to avoid the sand traps of volatility. Jeff here is a former rugby hooker and knows both games very well. So tell us, Jeff, which philosophy wins the current market environment? It is it is it the full contact conviction or patient coursemanagement? I mean, I love them both. I think you got to use them both, kind of like my market at a, uh, glance disciplines where we use all the, all the, the disciplines out there. I mean, there's times to be to smash into it. Um, I think we've been doing that at the, uh, for the last few months. Right now with the seasonals coming in, there's probably a little, a little sand trap volatility, you know, waiting there for us. So a little I appreciate you following up those two sports. I don't do the rugby anymore though, but, uh, I still watch it. What do you think?The lead driver of that volatility, is it going to be more policy uncertainty? Is it going to be inflation tariffs, DC? I think more like anemia. Like things will be a little anemic. We're going to run out of good news and people are going to step away. They're going to take some profits. They're going toYou know, go to the beach, go to the golf courses, and, and I think it, I don't think it's, I think it's gonna be a lack of news. I think we're gonna run out of good news and it's just gonna be a little seasonal dip, nothing was born out of nothing, so who knows? Yeah, I don't, I don't think it's gonna be some real trigger. I think it's just gonna be kind of roll over and then I kind of like it's been nonstop over it's the beginning of the year, news, news, news. It just feels like we've been inundated with so many things. I'm sure as an investor it's a little confusing too, just wading through all the the puts and stops. Well, sometimes you just got to turn the news off. Yahoo. It's got to put the phone down. You got to take your time outs. You gotta, you know, go spend some time with the family and friends and keep the screens off for. All right, we're gonna leave it right screen on for a little bit though. We have officially wound things down and just a brief recap, um, I really enjoyed this conversation because we got to talk about not only the seasonal patterns, but how they change over time. And that's a very important thing. You gotta stay up to date. You gotta be able to use new tools and you have to be able to take in new information and adjust your old opinions because that's what it takes to survive this trading game. Nothing fixed in now that we have wound things down here at Stocks and Translation, be sure to check out all our other episodes of our video podcast on the Yahoo Finance site and mobile app. We're also on all your favorite podcast platforms. So be sure to like, leave a comment, and subscribe wherever you get your podcast. Related Videos What could drive another bond market meltdown this year? Lipikhina: Market Optimistic About Potential US-EU Deal Deutsche Bank CFO on Second-Quarter Earnings Declining Policy Uncertainty Will Drive Markets Higher, Standard Chartered Says Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
The Independent
7 days ago
- Entertainment
- The Independent
Salsify in Cape Town: The fine dining restaurant rewriting the South African food story
What does it take to be named Restaurant of the Year? Those words conjure a certain set of expectations: a beautiful setting, warm hospitality, knowledgeable staff, a focus on seasonality and sustainability and, obviously, perfectly delicious food. You'd expect all these things as the minimum, plus a little something extra that makes it special. Salsify nails every one of them, and then some. It has that extra something – a chef at the helm who couldn't hide his passion if he tried. Though it sounds like a cliché, chef Ryan Cole of Salsify – pronounced 'sal-si-fee', not 'fie', as I kept blurting out – genuinely lives and breathes his work. Whether it's fishing several times a week with his brother to supply the restaurant (their dad was a commercial fisherman), foraging for indigenous ingredients that 'tell the South African story,' sourcing sustainable produce or, you know, running two lauded businesses (the other is COY, a more laid-back but nonetheless excellent destination), it's clear he means it when he says, 'there was never anything else'. Salsify is housed in The Roundhouse – a national monument dating back to 1786, which served first as a guardhouse and then a hunting lodge. Perched at the base of Cape Town's Table Mountain, with sweeping views of the Atlantic, it's a setting that does a lot of the talking. But Ryan insists Salsify is 'about a sense of time and place'. 'It's an experience, a longer journey – put your seatbelt on and trust us.' From the hand-washing ceremony (my palms had never felt so soft or smelled so good) to the welcome mountain-sage cocktail served in the preservation chamber – apple-y fresh and delivered in a room daubed with graffiti by Louis de Villiers aka Skullboy – Salsify is full of sensory surprises without ever tipping into excess. A desire to be 'ingredient-led' means there's nowhere to hide. Ryan says he'd 'prefer taking off a plate, opposed to adding to,' and as he told the 2025 Eat Out Awards after winning: 'We stand for a few things: no bulls**t, honesty and flavour.' That ethos translates into exquisite, understated dishes – some dictated by what's been caught that day. A parsnip and chicken skin tart is smoky, delicate and absurdly tasty; its texture almost as appealing as its flavour. Springbok tartare, dressed with a lightly spicy Asian influence, is impossibly tender, offset by teensy pieces of popcorn. Steamed pork jowl sounds intimidating, but it couldn't be softer; its crunchy topping is delightfully reminiscent of pub pork scratchings. Ryan knows how to keep guests happy from the outset – with a 12-hour sourdough and milk-stout butter dusted with lemon, served alongside a small glass of stout – and right to the end, with the Salsify chocolate bar, best described as a fatter, denser, fudgier Twix. Something that adds to the experience – particularly for visitors – is the abundance of new things you'll get to try. In just one (admittedly sizeable) meal, I tasted spekboom on an oyster; umfino, made from pap (a maize dish that's a staple in any Cape Townian's diet) and leafy greens; chokka, a squid found off the South African coast; chakalaka, a spicy vegetable relish; and cake made from the tropical plant pandan – along with many more ingredients you just can't get in the UK. This pride in South African food and ingredients isn't unique to Salsify. At De Tafel at the Palm House Hotel and Spa – a gorgeous place to stay that exemplifies South African hospitality – the menu 'takes its cue from the indigenous flora and flavours of the Cape'. That felt true enough; I recognised fewer ingredients than I didn't – from kaapse suurings and veld patat to kappertijies, confetti bush and suikerbossie. My palate felt awakened in a way it hadn't in years. A standout discovery was snoek – a lean, local species of snake mackerel often turned into a smoked pâté that, bizarrely, pairs perfectly with marmalade. It's also a brilliant way to use up leftovers from the braai – that's a BBQ, to Brits. That pride extends to wine too, although it's something the rest of the world hasn't quite caught up with yet – as my colleague Hannah Twiggs wrote back in March. Despite its Mediterranean climate, deep-rooted winemaking tradition and truly breathtaking wine regions, South Africa still struggles to shake off its reputation as a budget alternative to the French classics. Wines here are often massively underpriced in British supermarkets – seen as the 'cheap option.' That perception seems to be shifting. Babylonstoren in Stellenbosch – a working farm, winery and luxury hotel – provided the official wine of this year's RHS Chelsea Flower Show: a 2024 Mourvèdre Rosé. My own top tip, after trying (almost too) many bottles championed by South Africa's tourism agency, Wesgro, is to look out for SA Chenin Blancs. Crisp, subtly fruity and refreshing, it quickly became my wine of the summer. I particularly loved a bottle from Jordan Wines, but I picked up a brilliant one in Tesco when I got home – yet more proof of the undervalued prices. Naturally, South African wine features heavily at Salsify, and a Charles Fox 2016 Cœur de Cuvée was one of the most spectacular sparkling wines I've tasted. But I must also mention my peruse-the-menu cocktail – a rhubarb cosmopolitan. Tart, sweet and tangy, it's the kind of drink that would drive Carrie Bradshaw crazy. Almost as crazy as Ryan is about cooking. He's only ever wanted to quit once – deathly hungover, he tells me – and if he couldn't cook, he'd 'burn the place down. And by place, I mean the world.' Luckily for us, he's still doing his thing – and South Africa is all the better for it. Since my visit, Salsify was ranked No 88 – on its debut entry – in the World's 50 Best Restaurants Top 100 list for 2025. Here's how to braai fish like Ryan, paired with a summery curried salad. BBQ fish and summer curried salad Ingredients: 1x 2kg whole fish (preferably sea bass or kingfish) Zest and juice of 1 lemon Zest and juice of 1 lime 2 tbsp Maldon sea salt 50g butter, softened to room temperature 1 clove garlic, finely grated 1 apple, juiced 1 carrot, juiced 1 tsp medium curry powder 40ml olive oil 30ml apple cider vinegar 100ml Greek yoghurt 1 head butter lettuce, leaves picked 1 tub ricotta 1 pomegranate 30g salted roasted cashew nuts 1 cucumber, peeled into ribbons For the fish: Ask your fishmonger to butterfly your fish and remove the head, leaving the collar on and the belly whole. Method: 1. Light a fire and allow the coals to burn down to embers. Season your fish with the zest and juice of both the lemon and lime, 1 tablespoon of Maldon salt and a good crack of white pepper. Place the fish skin side down on the grid over the coals. Cook for 4-6 minutes, then flip onto the other side and cook for 1 minute. Allow the fish to rest for 3 minutes, before brushing the soft butter, with one clove of finely grated garlic mixed in, over the flesh. For the summer curried salad: 2. Mix the carrot and apple juice together in a heatproof pan and place over heat. Reduce the juice by ⅔, then remove from the heat and add curry powder, apple cider vinegar and olive oil. Allow the mixture to cool, then stir through the yoghurt. 3. Add the lettuce, pomegranate, cucumber and cashew nuts to a bowl. Toss together with the yoghurt mix and ricotta. Serve alongside your fish.
