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The National
6 days ago
- Business
- The National
Back to square one: Lebanon's local elections have taken the country in the wrong direction
Lebanon recently finished the last round of its municipal elections, and the message was not reassuring. Lists backed by the country's sectarian political parties were largely victorious. This anticipates a period of continued polarisation at a time when Lebanon needs to be unified around a project to benefit from the changing dynamics in the Middle East. Writing in the US-based International Policy Digest, Mohammad Fheili, executive in residence at the American University of Beirut, expressed a more general mood in Lebanon about where the country was going. Commenting on US President Donald Trump's recent tour of the Middle East, Mr Fheili noted that 'Lebanon [was] conspicuously absent from the conversation. Lebanon wasn't simply left off the agenda. It seems to have vanished from it altogether'. The mood among leading parties inside Lebanon seems blithely detached from the broader shifts in the region. The main Christian political party, the Lebanese Forces, took pride in its victories in the towns of Jounieh and Zahleh, while doing well in other Christian bastions. For the party's leader, Samir Geagea, this bodes well for parliamentary elections next year, when the Lebanese Forces hope to form an even larger bloc than the one they have today. Of particular urgency for Mr Geagea is not only to marginalise the Free Patriotic Movement led by Gebran Bassil, but also to push back against any potential electoral challenge by candidates supported by President Joseph Aoun, whom Mr Geagea quietly regards as a rival. Candidates backed by Hezbollah and the allied Amal Movement did well in the south and in the Baalbek-Hermel regions, but that was expected. Following the recent military defeat of Hezbollah by Israel, it was not likely that voters would oppose the party, displaying divisions that would only compound the Shiite community's setbacks because of the war. Similarly, in other areas, candidates backed by the political class did well. This was less visible in the Sunni community, given that Saad Hariri, once the dominant communal representative, failed to engage with the elections. However, renewed Saudi interest in Lebanon, albeit limited, and the downfall of the Assad government in Syria have helped revive a community that had often felt sidelined during the years of Hezbollah's hegemony. Yet if the elections were largely interpreted in domestic political terms by the sectarian political parties, Mr Fheili's doubts were reaffirmed when it comes to the region. A fragmented country, led by self-interested political parties focused on short-term gains to secure communal ascendancy, is hardly one optimally prepared for regional transformations. There may be exceptions to this. As my colleague Maha Yahya of Carnegie has noted, Mr Trump's decision to lift sanctions on Syria may have positive repercussions on Lebanon's banking lobby, which has systematically blocked financial reforms, fearing that banks may be forced to bear the greatest burden of losses from the financial collapse of 2019-2020. Today, if reconstruction resumes in Syria, Lebanon's banking sector anticipates playing a major role in the process. However, this can happen only if it agrees to a restructuring, allowing banks to refloat themselves. Until now, there has been resistance in the sector, both because there has been no agreement over who – banks, the state, or the central bank – would cover the largest share of losses and because restructuring may eliminate several banks. The reality is that many nations appear to have lost patience with Lebanon, which over the years has thwarted numerous efforts to reform its economy. The country is a graveyard for new approaches, as it remains under the thumb of political, financial and commercial cartels that unfailingly shoot down most ideas aiming to break a debilitating stalemate. Yet the message in Mr Trump's visit to the region was fairly evident. He seeks a world in which economic relations and self-interest prevail, but also, it seems, one in which China, Russia and the US have their spheres of influence. If that's his vision, the Middle East will remain an area of competition between the US and China, which implies that the countries of the region have much to gain by positioning themselves between rival superpowers. Yet Lebanon, once the quintessential middle-man country, is devoid of ideas, and is struggling with a geopolitical situation that is catastrophic. Israel's regional strategy has shifted to one of enhancing its security by fragmenting its Arab neighbours, and acting, or planning to act, with impunity inside their territories. This could be fatal for Lebanon. In light of this, Lebanon must press forward in its dialogue with Hezbollah to secure the group's disarmament. Only then will it be able to free the south of Israel's occupation and normalise the situation enough to think strategically about its regional place. This would reassure outside countries that it is progressing enough for them to provide vital foreign investment. But even that may not be enough if Lebanon doesn't overcome its incapacitating sectarian factionalism. Unless this happens and the Lebanese come together to shape a common vision for the future, the country will remain an afterthought – a place bleeding its youth to the advantage of more vibrant societies. Like a dried flower, it will be both beautiful and dead.
The Independent
02-06-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Nigel Farage uses visit to Scotland to double down on attacks on Anas Sarwar
Nigel Farage has doubled down on his attacks on Anas Sarwar, with the Reform UK leader using a visit to Scotland to again accuse him of 'sectarian politics'. Mr Farage claimed the Scottish Labour leader has a 'record of obsession' – citing a speech he gave in Holyrood in 2020 as evidence of this. His comments came as he unveiled a new defection to his Reform UK party, with councillor Duncan Massey, who had been a Conservative representative on Aberdeen City Council, now a member. Mr Farage also promised another defection, this time from Labour, would come on Monday afternoon as he visits Hamilton, where a Holyrood by-election is taking place. That by-election has been dominated by a row over a Reform advert which has been branded 'racist' by Reform's opponents, and which claims that Mr Sarwar will 'prioritise' the Pakistani community in Scotland. Asked about this, Mr Farage insisted Reform UK 'don't talk about race at all'. He pointed out his party's chairman, Zia Yusuf, was someone who 'is Scottish born, but comes from parents who come from the Indian subcontinent'. Mr Farage continued: 'We think everybody should be treated equally. We object, very strongly, to the segmentation of people into different types.' Adding that the Scottish Labour leader has a 'record of obsession on this issue', he went on to reference a speech Mr Sarwar gave in 2020 where he noted that key figures across Scotland, from the judiciary, to council chief executives to head teachers, were all white. Mr Farage said: 'I think that speech he gave was sectarian in its very nature – we are the south Asian community, we are going to take over the country and take over the world. 'We believe what he said was a form of sectarian politics and we don't like it one little bit.' His comments came after First Minister John Swinney claimed the Reform UK leader 'doesn't care about Scotland'. With an opinion poll having suggested Reform could be the second-largest party at Holyrood after next May's Scottish elections, the SNP leader spoke about the 'deeply concerning rise in support for Farage'. Mr Swinney added: 'Be in no doubt, Nigel Farage doesn't care about Scotland. He poses a threat to our values and must be stopped, and only the SNP can do that.' Mr Farage however declared that his party had 'made remarkable strides in Scotland over the past year'. Speaking as protesters gathered outside, the Reform UK leader said if the polls are to be believed 'we are beginning to eclipse Labour to be the second most popular party in Scottish politics'. Mr Farage again spoke out about the 'madness' of the net zero policies being pursued by the governments at Holyrood and Westminster. He told reporters these had left the oil and gas industry, which is centred in Aberdeen, 'in serious decline'. This 'to a large extent… is wholly unnecessary', the MP insisted, hitting out at the taxes imposed on the oil and gas sector, and also at the Labour Westminster Government's opposition to licensing new fields. Mr Farage continued: '2025 will be a year of record consumption of fossil fuels. 'We can con ourselves as much as we like, there will be more coal burnt this year than has ever been burnt in the history of mankind, and the same applies to gas and oil. 'Even the most ardent proponent of net zero has to accept the world will still be using oil and gas up until 2050 and beyond. 'And yet we have decided to sacrifice this industry as a consensus around net zero has emerged.' As a result of this he said parts of Scotland, England and Wales were 'literally deindustrialising before our very eyes'. Mr Farage said: 'The madness of this is almost completely and utterly beyond belief.' Asked about the upcoming Hamilton by-election, Mr Farage said he was confident his party would place at least third, but if Reform won it would be the 'biggest earthquake Scottish politics has ever seen'. Responding to the Reform UK leader's latest comments on Monday, Mr Sarwar said: 'Today the chief clown Nigel Farage finally found his way to Scotland and showed just how totally out of touch with our country he is. 'Nigel Farage turned up, admitted he can't win the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, and pledged to cut funding for Scotland's NHS and public services. 'Nigel Farage is a dangerous clown and the people of Scotland see right through him.' In an interview with the Scottish Sun on Monday, Mr Farage described Mr Swinney as 'anti-English' following his outspoken attacks on the Reform leader. 'Swinney's words are deeply provocative, which suggests the SNP leadership has learned nothing,' he told the newspaper. 'It suggests there is still that sort of quite unpleasant anti-Englishness. 'Why on earth would the top man in Scottish politics today come out with those sort of insults?' Speaking to the PA news agency on Monday, Mr Swinney rejected the claims. 'I've always taken forward my politics on the basis of inclusion, of welcoming people, of working with others – that's what I'm about,' he said. 'Nigel Farage is the opposite of that. 'Nigel Farage stokes division, he seeks to put people against each other and we're bringing people together in Scotland to create the best future for our country.'
