Latest news with #spacejunk
Yahoo
31-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
What goes up must come down: How megaconstellations like SpaceX's Starlink network pose a grave safety threat to us on Earth
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. In 2024, several farmers across Saskatchewan, Canada, had to deal with a bizarre situation: chunks of SpaceX space junk had crashed onto their land. As I helped a couple of these farmers negotiate the wild world of international space law, not significantly updated since the Apollo era, I knew this situation would become increasingly common. The first generation of megaconstellation satellites, led by the SpaceX Starlink initial launch of 60 satellites in 2019, have now reached the end of their incredibly short operating lifetimes. The end-of-life plan for virtually every satellite in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is to burn them up in Earth's atmosphere. Economically, this makes sense: it takes a lot less propellant to bring a satellite down into a lower orbit than up into a higher orbit, sometimes called a "graveyard" orbit. But the economic argument for bringing these satellites back down to Earth ignores the very real environmental consequences of atmospheric disposal. The chassis, leftover propellant, electronics, antennas, and solar panels don't disappear when a satellite "burns up" — the mass of the metals and plastics that comprise the satellite is deposited in the atmosphere as metal vapor. When just a few satellites are burned every year, it's not a significant change to atmospheric chemistry. But Starlink alone plans to have 42,000 satellites with 5-year operating lifetimes, so the mass of metal vapor entering the atmosphere (particularly highly reactive aluminum and lithium) will exceed natural infall rates by 25 times or more. This much extra metal vapor in the stratosphere can change atmospheric chemistry and may cause ozone depletion. By 2023, 10% of stratospheric aerosols already included metals from rocket and satellite reentries. LEO satellites burning up are a source of upper atmospheric pollution that's going to increase exponentially — and scientists are only just beginning to study what this massive increase in metal vapor could do in the stratosphere. Whatever parts of the reentering satellites don't burn up will hit the ground. Just in the past few months, spacecraft pieces have fallen on Poland, Kenya, North Carolina, and Algeria, while scientists carefully tracked a 1970s Soviet Venus probe's reentry and speculated about ground casualty risks. That spacecraft, Kosmos 482, crashed into the Indian Ocean earlier this month. While identifiable debris from only one Starlink satellite has so far been recovered, there are likely many, many more pieces already on the ground in other places that are covered by woods or mountains. Related: 'No radio astronomy from the ground would be possible anymore': Satellite mega-swarms are blinding us to the cosmos — and a critical 'inflection point' is approaching At some point, a bit of falling space junk will kill someone. Scientists recently calculated the risk of a casualty from one of the over 2,000 rocket bodies in orbit is 10% in the next decade, but that doesn't include the tens of thousands of satellites expected to reenter in that same time period. So what's the solution? Leaving unmaneuverable, dead satellites in orbit is not an option. They pose a safety risk to other satellites, potentially orbiting for decades at 16,000 mph (25,000 km/h). Collisions at these speeds are catastrophic, producing debris bullets that can crash into other satellites, producing more debris. The worst-case scenario is called Kessler Syndrome, where these collisions become self-propagating, and the debris field makes LEO unusable for decades to centuries. Starlink has the highest density of operational satellites that has ever existed in orbit. It has reported an average of one collision avoidance maneuver within their megaconstellation every two minutes in the second half of 2024, and they have already launched hundreds more satellites into that orbital shell since then. So far, Starlink has been impressively successful at avoiding collisions. But the frequency of collision avoidance maneuvers means that if there is a large solar flare, or their systems get hacked, or there's a simple human error, no maneuvers can be executed for any significant window of time — raising the risk of a collision. Related stories —Sci-fi inspired tractor beams are real, and could solve a major space junk problem —How many satellites could fit in Earth orbit? And how many do we really need? —How many satellites orbit Earth? Having fewer satellites in orbit naturally reduces the danger of collisions and the worst-case scenario of Kessler Syndrome. It also reduces light pollution from satellites, which is the reason I originally started worrying about megaconstellations. Satellites are already degrading astronomy research, including the discovery of potentially hazardous asteroids. Fewer satellites will allow astronomers to continue exploring space with telescopes, and stargazers to continue exploring space with their eyes. LEO is a valuable resource that must be protected and shared in a way that benefits the most people while simultaneously protecting LEO for use by future generations. We cannot have tens of thousands of satellites in LEO without severe consequences for the atmosphere and an increasingly high likelihood of Kessler Syndrome, which will limit our use of satellites for decades to centuries. This is the urgent challenge that satellite engineers and operators must now meet: if they need to provide services from orbit with fewer, longer-lived satellites, how will they do that? Without far-reaching, international regulation, or self-imposed limits from satellite companies, current practices in LEO threaten the planet, and our ability to explore beyond it. Opinion on Live Science gives you insight on the most important issues in science that affect you and the world around you today, written by experts and leading scientists in their field.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Soviet Kosmos 482 spacecraft crashes into an unknown site on Earth
A Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972 on a failed mission to Venus is believed to have crashed back onto Earth early on Saturday morning. The European Space Agency, which was monitoring the craft's uncontrolled descent, said it was last spotted by radar over Germany. At at the time of its expected crash, radars could no longer detect the Kosmos 482, concluding that 'it is most likely that the reentry has already occurred.' No injuries or damage have been reported. The Kosmos 482 spacecraft was part of the U.S.S.R's Venera program, a series of probes that were developed to research the planet Venus. Ten of those missions successfully landed on the hot, barren planet, but the rocket carrying Kosmos 482 malfunctioned. Its upper stage, which contained the descent craft, got stuck in Earth orbit. Over the following fifty-three years, the approximately three-foot wide, 1,069 pound spacecraft circled the Earth in an ever-smaller elliptical orbit, until it came close enough to fall into the planet's atmosphere. It's not unusual for space junk to fall back to earth. More than 2,400 human-made objects fell from space in 2022, a record number, according to ESA. The vast majority of them burned up in Earth's atmosphere, and most of those that didn't splashed into an ocean. But Kosmos 482 was built to withstand a descent through Venus' dense atmosphere, and to operate on the planet's surface, where the mean temperature is 867 degrees Fahrenheit (464 C). That meant it was theoretically hardy enough to survive a comparatively easy re-entry through Earth's atmosphere. There's no record of space debris ever causing a human fatality. 'The risk of any satellite reentry causing injury is extremely remote,' ESA officials wrote in a blog post about Kosmos-482. 'The annual risk of an individual human being injured by space debris is under 1 in 100 billion. In comparison, a person is about 65,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning.' On Friday, the U.S. Space Force forecasted that the spacecraft would re-enter the atmosphere at 1:52 a.m. ET on Saturday morning above the Pacific Ocean, west of Guam. This article was originally published on
RNZ News
10-05-2025
- Science
- RNZ News
A Soviet-era spacecraft that failed to reach Venus is due to crash back to Earth this week
By Jackie Wattles , CNN The spacecraft was sent to Venus in 1972, but some experts predict it could crash back to Earth from Saturday 10 May. Photo: NASA/JPL-Caltech A piece of a Soviet vehicle that malfunctioned en route to Venus more than 50 years ago is due to crash back to Earth as soon as this week. Much about the piece of space debris, called Cosmos 482 (also spelled Kosmos 482), is unknown. Though most projections estimate the object will re-enter the atmosphere around Saturday 10 May, unknowns - such as its exact shape and size, as well as the unpredictability of space weather - make some degree of uncertainty inevitable. It is also unclear which portion of the vehicle is set to re-enter, though researchers believe it to be the probe, or "entry capsule," which was designed to survive the extreme temperature and pressure of landing on Venus - which has an atmosphere 90 times more dense than Earth's. That means it could survive its unexpected trip back home, posing a small but non-zero risk to people on the ground. While space junk and meteors routinely veer toward a crash-landing on Earth, most of the objects disintegrate as they're torn apart due to friction and pressure as they hit Earth's thick atmosphere while travelling thousands of miles per hour. But if the Cosmos 482 object is indeed a Soviet re-entry capsule, it would be equipped with a substantial heat shield, meaning it "might well survive Earth atmosphere entry and hit the ground," according to Dr Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics who shared his predictions about Cosmos 482 on his website. The risk of the object hitting people on the ground is likely minimal, and there's "no need for major concern," McDowell wrote, "but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head". NASA Administrator Robert C Seamans Jr (left) and US Scientist Wernher Von Braun (centre), in November 1963 showing US President John F Kennedy (right) the Cape Canaveral launching pad. Photo: AFP The Soviet Space Research Institute, or IKI, was formed in the mid-1960s amid the 20th-century space race, which pitted the Soviet Union against its chief space-exploring competitor, the United States. The IKI's Venera programme sent a series of probes toward Venus in the 1970s and '80s, with several surviving the trip and beaming data and images back to Earth before ceasing operations. Two spacecraft under that programme, V-71 No 670 and V-71 No 671, launched in 1972, according to McDowell. But only one made a successful voyage to Venus: V-71 No 670 operated for about 50 minutes on the planet's surface. V-71 No. 671 did not. A rocket carried the Venera spacecraft into a "parking orbit" around Earth. However, the vehicle then failed to put itself on a Venus transfer trajectory, leaving it stranded closer to home, according to NASA. Beginning in the 1960s, Soviet vehicles left in Earth's orbit were each given the Cosmos name and a numerical designation for tracking purposes, according to NASA. Several pieces of debris were created from V-71 No. 671's failure. At least two have already fallen out of orbit. But researchers believe the one set to plummet back to our planet this week is the cylindrical entry capsule - or Cosmos 482 - because of the way the vehicle has behaved in orbit. "It is quite dense, whatever it is, because it had a very low point in its orbit, yet it didn't decay for decades," space debris expert Marlon Sorge said, who is with the federally funded research group, The Aerospace Corporation. "So it's clearly bowling ball-ish." And though the Venus probe was equipped with a parachute, the vehicle has been out of service in the harsh environment of space for the past few decades. That means it's highly unlikely that a parachute could deploy at the right time or serve to slow down the vehicle's descent, Sorge told CNN. The chances of Cosmos 482 causing deadly damage are roughly 1 in 25,000, according to The Aerospace Corporation's calculations, Sorge said. That's a much lower risk than some other pieces of space debris. At least a few defunct rocket parts re-enter Earth's atmosphere each year, Sorge noted, and many have carried higher odds of catastrophe. But if the Cosmos 482 object does hit the ground, it is likely to land between 52 degrees North and 52 South latitudes, lecturer and space traffic expert at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, Marco Langbroek said via email. "That area encompasses several prominent landmasses and countries: the whole of Africa, South America, Australia, the USA, parts of Canada, parts of Europe, and parts of Asia," Langbroek said. "But as 70 percent of our planet is water, chances are good that it will end up in an Ocean somewhere," Langbroek said via email. "Yes, there is a risk, but it is small. You have a larger risk of being hit by lightning once in your lifetime." Sorge emphasised that if Cosmos 482 hits dry land, it is crucial that bystanders do not attempt to touch the debris. The old spacecraft could leak dangerous fuels or pose other risks to people and property. "Contact the authorities," Sorge urged. "Please don't mess with it." Spokesperson for the Aerospace Corporation Parker Wishik added that under the 1967 Outer Space Treaty - which remains the primary document outlining international space law - Russia would maintain ownership of any surviving debris and may seek to recover it after landing. And while the global space community has taken steps in recent years to ensure that fewer spacecraft make uncontrolled crash-landings back on Earth, the Cosmos 482 vehicle highlights the importance of continuing those efforts, Wishik added. "What goes up must come down," he said. "We're here talking about it more than 50 years later, which is another proof point for the importance of debris mitigation and making sure we're having that dialogue (as a space community), because what you put up in space today might affect us for decades to come." - CNN Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
The Independent
08-05-2025
- Science
- The Independent
What we know about the Soviet spacecraft returning to Earth this week
During the height of the Cold War in the 1960s and 1970s, the USSR launched 29 spacecraft towards Venus, the planet scientists call Earth 's 'twin sister'. Three flew past Venus and went into orbit around the Sun. Sixteen orbited or landed on Venus, where they experienced a climate often described as 'hellish'. Ten got stuck in Earth orbit. All of them re-entered Earth's atmosphere the same year they were launched – except Kosmos 482, which has stayed aloft for 53 more years. As the last remnant of the Soviet Venus program left in Earth orbit, it's not your average piece of space junk. Because it was designed to withstand Venusian conditions, many think the lander may make planetfall on Earth instead of incinerating in the atmosphere. And that is expected to happen this week. Destination Morning Star Venus was a target of interest because its thick clouds might be hiding life on the surface. But the spacecraft were also Cold War weapons aimed at demonstrating the superiority of socialist science. Venera 1 was launched in 1961, only four years after Sputnik 1, the first satellite. Venera 7, in 1970, was the first spacecraft to successfully soft-land instead of crashing on a planet. Vega 2 was the last USSR Venus mission in 1984. The Venera probes were launched in pairs, a few days apart. If one failed, the other might succeed. Venera 8 was launched on March 27 1972 and reached Venus 117 days later. On March 31, its twin left Earth but failed to escape Earth orbit, earning the designation Kosmos 482. The spacecraft comprised a delivery 'bus' about 3.5 metres tall, with a propulsion system, solar panels and a mesh dish antenna at one end, and the spherical landing craft at the other end. The landers had their own refrigeration system to cool them down and a heat shield to protect them. If all went to plan, the buses would eject the landers from orbit. The landers would hit the upper cloud decks at a speed of nearly 12km per second. At 60km altitude, the main parachute was released to float the lander down to the surface. A range of instruments would then measure the temperature, pressure, wind speed, visibility, atmospheric gases and rock composition, and radio the results back to Earth. Each lander carried a USSR medallion inside. But all didn't go to plan. Venera 8 sped on its way to Venus, sending its lander down on July 22. Fate had something different in store for Kosmos 482. How to be space junk in one easy step The upper rocket stage that was meant to propel the Kosmos 482 bus out of Earth orbit shut off too early because the timer wasn't set correctly. The rocket stage fell back to Earth and burnt up, while titanium pressure vessels from its fuel system fell onto fields in Aotearoa, New Zealand. The bus and landing craft came apart in mid-June and the bus fell back into the atmosphere in 1981. The 465kg lander continued its orbit alone. At its farthest, the lander was 9,000km away, coming as close as 210km in its highly elliptical orbit around Earth. Over 50 years, that orbit has lowered to only 2,000km at its farthest point. Now the atmosphere is dragging it back towards Earth with a predicted re-entry of May 10. You can get updates on Kosmos 482's position here. Will the lander fall on Earth? The lander had a titanium body designed to withstand Venus surface conditions of 90 times the atmospheric pressure of Earth and 470°C. After more than 50 years it won't have the refrigeration, the capacity to aerobrake or a working parachute to slow it down and keep it cool. Its reentry will be uncontrolled. Typically, space junk reenters at around seven kilometres per second and can reach temperatures of 1,600°C as it tears through the atmosphere. Titanium alloys have a melting point of around 1,700°C. This is why the so-called 'space balls' that landed in New Zealand in April 1972 survived reentry. If they did, then the lander could as well. Six of the nine other failed Kosmos reentries had landers or impactors, but we don't know where they are – either they did not survive, fell into the ocean, or have not yet been found on land. This may also be the fate of the Kosmos 482 lander. Danger from Venus Venus might be the planet of love, but in popular culture, it has been associated with danger. In the 1960 East German film The Silent Star (later dubbed into English as First Spaceship on Venus), the Venusians plan to bombard Earth with radiation so they can conquer it. In the 1968 film Night of the Living Dead, an American Venus probe returns bringing a deadly radiation which turns the dead into zombies. An episode of the hit 1970s TV series The Six Million Dollar Man characterised a Russian Venus spacecraft as a 'death probe' when it accidentally returned to Earth. These representations reflect Cold War fears of nuclear war and war waged from space. In the 21st century, we have a new source of anxiety: the environmental impacts of space junk. But spacecraft such as Kosmos 482 are not the junk people should be worried about. In the past five years, there's been a massive increase in the number of rocket launches and the number of spacecraft in low Earth orbit. More and more space junk is reentering the atmosphere. For example, it's estimated that a Starlink satellite reenters almost every day. When it burns up, it leaves behind damaging chemicals and soot particles. In the meantime, Venera 8 is still waiting silently on the surface of Venus for its twin to arrive.
