Latest news with #startingpitchers
New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Why the Zero SP draft strategy continues to be the right approach in fantasy baseball
Let's revisit the Zero SP approach I recommended in February. The strategy suggests not drafting a starting pitcher in at least the first five rounds and ideally abstaining through the seventh round. So, in the most extreme adherence to the strategy, it means no starting pitchers before pick 100. Looking at just the high-stakes drafts during the final week of the draft season, on average, that's either after 17 starting pitchers are drafted (starting in Round 6) or after 24 are off the board (starting with pick 100). These numbers are down from 19 and 31, respectively, last year, so more people are passing on pitchers early. Advertisement Let's see where the top-30 fantasy baseball starters selected in March were as of July 1. I'm ranking the top pitchers now using auction values calculated by TGFantasyBaseball based on 12-team mixed leagues with 30% of a $260 budget spent on pitching. ADP is from high-stakes NFFC leagues over the final three weeks of the draft season. We have 32 pitchers because of a tie for 30th place. Of those, 23 were drafted after pick 100, or not drafted at all, including Hunter Brown (No. 2), Max Fried (No. 3), Logan Webb (No. 8), Andrew Abbott (No. 10) and Kris Bubic (No. 11). Abbott and Bubic were not even drafted. Last year, it was 20 out of 35. And the number of late-drafted starting pitchers hits is higher this year, despite people waiting longer on pitching. If you didn't draft a single starting pitcher before pick 100 (on average), you still had a shot at 72% of the top SPs (through the first half of the season). The list is weighted heavily towards wins, which are largely unpredictable, but that's all the more reason not to invest heavily in starters. Let's look at the early-drafted busts who have destroyed their managers. Logan Gilbert (ADP 31), Corbin Burnes (40), Cole Ragans (47), Dylan Cease (50), Blake Snell (54), Michael King (69), Pablo Lopez (78), Tyler Glasnow (95), Bailey Ober (96) and Aaron Nola (97). Roki Sasaki (101) just misses the ADP 100 cutoff. Not including Sasaki, that's 10 busts of the 24 starters drafted (on average) in the top 100, which is a bust rate of 42%. So, 72% of the top-30 starters were picked after pick 100, and 42% of the starters picked before pick 100 are disasters. 'But Mike,' you say, 'most of these are injuries, and injuries are unpredictable!' To which I say, 'Exactly!' The point is injuries are completely unpredictable, so why tie up premium draft capital in them? I understand that the increasingly popular Head-to-Head formats are starting to become pitching dominant because you typically have 10 pitchers active compared to just nine hitters. So the format is forcing you to prioritize starters. Basically, you're being forced to drive into a brick wall. The other issue in today's games with starters is innings. Starters are worth less than ever because they are throwing fewer innings than ever. The average number of innings of this year's top-32 pitchers (listed above) is a relatively robust 96, about a 200-inning pace. But a bunch of these guys are injuries waiting to happen. With most of them, who cares, since they cost nothing and the profits are locked in. But today, 200 innings is something achieved by a handful (less than five, on average) of pitchers, and 175 is solid, meaning we would sign for that. This is a 15-to-20% hit in expected value just since the 2010s. Advertisement The three pillars to a Zero SP strategy: (1) Injuries don't hurt you as much as they hurt SP-heavy teams; (2) Starters are pitching fewer innings when healthy and are thus less valuable; (3) The top pitchers are much harder to predict than the top hitters and are about twice as likely to be found on waivers. This is validated year after year, yet we still persist in drafting pitchers early. Heck, I do it sometimes because we think the No. 25 pitcher in the draft is really No. 15 (it's a trap!). It's because we want to like our team after the draft and not enter the season with a mockable staff. We want the projected standings and draft grades to like us, dammit! The other benefit of no premium on starting pitching is no loyalty to any pitcher on your roster. There is no such thing as a sunk cost. So you are not stuck with the dregs of the world because you paid for them. All the starters you have on your team are churnable from the minute the season starts. It's 'put up or get out!' You're always searching the waiver wire for upgrades. Right now, in my top Head-to-Head league, which is very pitching heavy, some names on waivers include Jeffrey Springs (2.97/0.99 the past month), Brayan Bello (2.87/1.21) and Michael Soroka (3.49/0.81 with 36 Ks in 28.1 IP). Mike Burrows (2.73/1.22 with 30 Ks in 26.1 IP) and Justin Wrobleski (2.73/1.06 with 26 Ks in 26.1 IP) are generally available in Yahoo leagues. Pitchers who can actually help your team are always available, while free-agent hitters more often facilitate treading water. (Photo of Hunter Brown: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Phillies Face Good Problem of Having Too Many Quality Starting Pitchers
Phillies Face Good Problem of Having Too Many Quality Starting Pitchers originally appeared on Athlon Sports. Philadelphia Phillies rookie starting pitcher Mick Abel looks like the next big thing. Through two starts, the 23-year-old righty has a 0.79 ERA, a 1.13 FIP, 11 strikeouts without a walk, and eight hits allowed over 11 and 1/3 innings. It is still far too early into Abel's career to make any definitive moves, and his next couple of starts should help clarify his future with the team. Advertisement Abel's small sample size, albeit an electric start to his career, could not come at a better time for the Phillies. Aaron Nola is on the 15-day injured list with an ankle injury and was recently shut down due to right side stiffness. Without Nola, Philadelphia can still roll out a five-man staff of Zack Wheeler, Christopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez, and Abel. Taijuan Walker is also capable of starting games, but has looked sharp so far in his two relief outings (zero runs over two innings). Abel's ascension could also help the Phillies with their Suárez decision, as he is an unrestricted free agent after this year. Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson (59) looks on from the dugout against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC LeClaire-Imagn Images Here is what Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer had to say on the Abel versus Suárez outlook: Advertisement 'Skeptics would advise the Phillies to trade Abel while his value is high. But he looks increasingly like a future asset to a rotation that could lose Suarez to free agency and won't be anchored forever by workhorses [Zack] Wheeler and [Aaron] Nola.' Should Abel maintain this dominance, Philadelphia could probably ship him for immediate outfield support or bolster the back-end of their bullpen. Abel has been a highly regarded prospect for years and could garner a significant return. But, even with No. 1 prospect RHP Andrew Painter on his way to the Majors, shipping Abel feels like a desperate move. Yes, the Phillies are in win-now mode and should feel more confident in Suárez to handle October games. But, Suárez is also turning 30 years old this August, and his performance (2.70 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 38 strikeouts to 11 walks over 43 and 1/3 innings) should result in a hefty payday. Advertisement It sounds insane, but dealing Suárez, not Abel, might be the better potential move for Philadelphia. Related: Phillies Urged to Target Rockies' Breakout Reliever for Bullpen Help Related: Phillies Urged to Make Conservative Bryce Harper Decision Amid Injury This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 10, 2025, where it first appeared.
