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Mint
14-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Retail, wholesale inflation eased sharply in June, signalling broad-based price cooling
New Delhi: Cooling prices offered a double dose of relief in June, with both retail and wholesale inflation easing sharply, signalling a broad-based tempering of cost pressures across the economy. Retail price inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.1% in June, its slowest pace since January 2019, while wholesale price index-based inflation fell to a 21-month low in June, at -0.13%, marking the first negative reading since October 2023, according to provisional government data released on Monday. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation stood at 2.82% in May, and 5.08% in June last year, data from the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) showed. The wholesale price index (WPI), a proxy for producers' prices, stood at 0.39% in May, and 3.43% in June 2024, according to data from the ministry of commerce and industry. The government relied on the WPI as its main inflation measure until 2014, when it shifted to CPI to better capture household price pressures. A Mint poll of 20 economistshad projected CPI inflation to ease to 2.3% in June. The latest wholesale inflation data bettered expectations, with prices rising at less than the 0.52% projected by economists in a Reuters poll. June marks the fifth consecutive month of sub-4% inflation, the longest such streak in at least five years. The data comes just a month after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committeecut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%, its third straight cut and a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points since the easing cycle began in February. The latest data bolsters the case for another rate cut to reinforce the growth momentum, economists said. Retail food prices slipped into deflation, falling 1.06% in June as the monsoon advanced across the country. The decline was sharper in urban areas than in rural. By contrast, food inflation had inched up 0.99% in May and surged 9.36% in June last year. 'CPI inflation for June cooled to a six-year low of 2.1% lead by moderating food prices and aided by the high base,' said Garima Kapoor, economist, Elara Capital. "We expect full-year CPI inflation to remain below RBI's full-year estimate of 3.7% and hence do not rule out the possibility of another rate cut post end of monsoon," Kapoor added. Retail inflation last dipped below 3% for six consecutive months between November 2018 and April 2019, a period during which the RBI also cut rates by 50 basis points. During June, a sharp dip was visible in the prices of meat, fish, spices, vegetables and pulses, as compared to the previous month. Prices of cereals, milk products, oil & fats, fruits, clothing, and fuel also fell, official data showed. However, the prices of eggs, footwear, health (expenses), and personal care and effects categories witnessed an increase in June compared with the previous month. At the state level, 12 of 22 major states reported inflation below the national average of 2.10%, including Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Delhi, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Rajasthan, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. Economists expect food inflation to remain benign, supported by ample rainfall in the coming months, though some warned that the uneven spatial distribution of rain requires careful monitoring. "The decline is mainly due to decline in food inflation, which is also at 77-month low of –0.20%, led by continued decline in food items particularly vegetable, pulses and spices," said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, State Bank of India, in a research note. Ghosh warned that trade tariffs could lead to further deflation in domestic relative prices, especially in clothing, footwear, and household electronics, which together account for over 10% of the CPI basket. "Core inflation has remained sticky at the 4% mark. However, tariff-driven commodity price shocks can tend to lead to some upward bias in the core. Overall, we believe that inflation is likely to remain below RBI's target of 4% this year," said Aditi Gupta, economist at Bank of Baroda. "Climate-related risks and US tariff policy and its likely impact on global commodity prices remain key risks," she added. Core inflation is the rise in prices of goods and services, excluding food and fuel. June's decline in WPI inflation was driven largely by falling food prices, with softer trends seen across fruit, vegetables, pulses, cereals, spices, and edible oils. Food prices, which make up 24.38% of the index, decelerated by 0.26% annually in June, compared to a 1.72% rise in May. Cereal prices rose 1.44% year-on-year in June, easing from the 2.56% increase recorded in May. Meanwhile, vegetable prices contracted by 22.65%, a deeper drop than the 21.62% decline the previous month. Fruit prices rose 1.59%, much lower than May's 10.17% increase. Milk prices rose by 2.26% in June, down from 2.66% in the previous month. "Among the non-food items, the deflation in fuel and power also widened between these months (May and June), exerting downward pressure on the headline print," said Rahul Agrawal, senior economist, ICRA Ltd. "The seasonal sequential uptick in food prices has been relatively modest in July 2025 so far, which is expected to keep food print in the deflationary zone, unless there is an unusual surge in such prices in the remaining part of the month, especially for vegetables," he added. Overall, the rating agency expects the headline WPI to remain in the deflationary territory in July 2025 despite an unfavourable base, amid sustained annual deflation in food and crude oil prices. Meanwhile, manufactured product prices, making up nearly two-thirds of the WPI, rose 1.97% in June, slightly below May's 2.04% increase, according to the official data. Fuel and power prices contracted 2.65%, deepening from a 2.27% drop in May. Primary articles, including food, minerals, and crude oil, saw a sharper annual decline of 3.38%, compared with 2.02% a month earlier.
Time of India
29-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
MoSPI launched GOIStats app to boost access to official data
The GOIStats mobile application, launched by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, aims to enhance accessibility to official data, featuring key socio-economic indicators. This initiative, coinciding with the 19th Statistics Day, underscores technology's role in transforming India's statistical system. The ministry also released reports on sustainable development goals, highlighting progress and persistent challenges across various sectors. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The National Sample Survey Office , under the ministry of statistics and programme implementation ( MoSPI ), launched the GOIStats mobile application on Sunday, aiming to make official data more app features a dashboard titled 'Key trends', which provides information on key socio-economic indicators such as inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), and employment.'Advanced filtering and search capabilities with comprehensive metadata, and mobile-optimized data tables are also available for seamless viewing,' the ministry app was launched on the occasion of the 19th statistics Minister of State (Independent Charge), Rao Inderjit Singh highlighted the growing role of technology in transforming India's statistical system for real-time data monitoring He also underlined the importance of methodological reforms like updated sampling techniques, integrated survey frameworks, and harmonisation with international technology-driven approach to data dissemination is reshaping the landscape of data-based policymaking, contributing to the vision of Viksit Bharat , said Saurabh Garg, secretary, ministry also released three publications -- National Indicator Framework Progress Report, 2025; Data Snapshot on Sustainable Development Goals , National Indicator Framework, Progress Report, 2025; and Sustainable Development Goals National Indicator Framework, SDG report noted that while India has made strides on various indicators, challenges remain.'While notable progress has been made in several sectors over the years, significant challenges continue to persist in others,' according to the population covered by social protection increased to 64.3% in 2025 from 22% in 2016. The share of population using an improved drinking water source in rural areas rose to 99.6% in 2024-25 from 94.6% in 2015-16.
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
For more accurate data, IIP to use chain-based approach
The government is set to revamp the Index of Industrial Production. A chain-based mechanism will be adopted for enhanced data accuracy. Weights will be revised more frequently, potentially every 1.5-2 years. The base year will be updated to 2022-23, with a new series expected in 2026-27. Retail inflation item weights will also be updated more regularly. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads New Delhi: The government plans to switch to a chain-based mechanism for the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to enhance the accuracy and relevance of ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) is exploring the idea of a chain-based IIP index, where weights will be revised more frequently to reflect changes within the industrial weights assigned to items in the IIP are derived from the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) conducted by MoSPI."We plan to revise the weights every 1.5-2 years," said a government official. The official also mentioned that a back series will be maintained for comparison.A chain-based index measures economic change over time by linking successive periods with the previous year's present, the ministry is working to update the base year to 2022-23 from 2011-12, with weights based on the ASI 2022-23. The new series is likely to be released in chain-based index is followed by many countries internationally and a previous working group on IIP considered this approach when revising the base year in 2017. However, it found challenges in updating weights every time the industry code structure is the current IIP series, manufacturing accounts for 77.633 weight, followed by mining at 14.373 and electricity at the ministry aims to update item weights in the retail inflation basket every four years, using data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES). The ministry has also decided to conduct HCES every three years instead of the current five years. The most recent survey was conducted in the government initially decided to use HCES 2022-23 data to update weights for the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) series, it is now considering HCES 2023-24 (August-July), as more recent data is available.
Time of India
06-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
New stats register soon to help gauge business outlook
The government is set to launch a Statistical Business Register (SBR) to compile data on businesses at the district and state levels. This initiative by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) aims to improve business surveys and market analysis. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads New Delhi: The government will soon launch a Statistical Business Register SBR ) that will host data on the number of businesses operating in districts, aggregating up to state ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) will use the SBR to prepare business outlook/sentiment surveys, people aware of the details told ET.A dedicated working group has been formed in the ministry for developing the comprehensive SBR dataset would capture business demography across size, industry, number of employees and geographical is expected to serve as a framework for enterprise surveys, market analysis (identifying demand areas and investment potential), policy analysis, gross domestic product (GDP) estimation, industrial performance, employment and growth SBR will source data from the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO), corporate affairs ministry's database, goods and services tax (GST) data and annual survey of industries (ASI), ET reported the Economic Census will be used to provide organised and unorganised sector SBR is expected to be updated on a quarterly or monthly basis, depending on the feasibility, an official aware of details initiative aligns with the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) recommendation of creating an SBR, which has been adopted by more than 60% of developing countries. The current business statistics suffers from non-uniformity, fragmentation, duplication of units and absence of unified data repository.
Mint
20-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
India's core sector output grows 0.5% in April, the lowest in eight months
New Delhi: The output of eight core infrastructure sectors, which account for two-fifths of India's industrial output, expanded by 0.5% annually in April, its lowest in the last eight months. It was recorded at 6.9% in April 2024, while the growth in March 2025 was revised from 3.8% to 4.6%. Only two of the eight core industries—coal and natural gas—reported a sequential rise in production during April, according to the provisional data released by the ministry of commerce and industry on Tuesday. Core sector output contributes 40.27% to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). To be sure, India's industrial production rebounded in March, recovering from a six-month low in February, according to provisional data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) last month. Industrial output rose 3% year-on-year in March, slightly above the 2.9% growth in February. The previous low, recorded in August 2024, was zero. Interestingly, of the eight core industries, only coal and natural gas registered a month-on-month increase in production in April. Coal output rose by 3.5% annually in April, up from 1.6% growth registered in the previous month. Natural gas production rose 0.4%, compared to a contraction of 12.7% in March. Production in three sectors -- crude oil, refinery products and fertilisers -- contracted in April. Crude oil production contracted by 2.8% annually in April, compared to a 1.9% contraction in March. Refinery production contracted 4.5% in April, against a 0.2% growth registered in the previous month. Fertiliser production contracted 4.2%, compared to an 8.8% growth in March. Production of steel, cement and electricity reported growth in April, albeit slower than the previous month. During April, steel production reported a 3% growth, cement 6.7%, and electricity 1%. Interestingly, India's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in 10 months in April, driven by strong demand and a sharp rise in output. The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 58.2 in April from 58.1 in March and 56.3 in February. The index was at 57.7 in January and 56.4 in December. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and below 50 a contraction. "The core sector growth at 0.5% is quite disappointing, even though the base effect was strong," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at the Bank of Baroda. "The infrastructure-based industries, cement and steel, had registered growth of 6.7% and 3% respectively. Construction activity has helped in keeping output ticking," he said. "Electricity production increased by 1%, which was affected by the high base of 10.2% last year. May was otherwise an exceptionally hot month where household consumption increased," he added.
