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CBC
07-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Northern Sask. riding could be island of Liberal red in sea of Tory blue, poll suggests
Saskatchewan's northern riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River could flip to Liberal red from its current Conservative blue in the next federal election, polling suggests. The riding comprises nearly the entire northern half of the province, but with a fraction of the population (about 37,845 people, according to Elections Canada). When the federal government began the process to redefine electoral boundaries in 2022 — a non-partisan review required every 10 years — some communities that voted heavily Conservative in the previous election were moved to other federal ridings. The 338Canada project, an election projection model based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data, suggests the Liberals could win 56 per cent of the vote, plus/-minus 14 per cent, in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, with the Conservatives garnering 26 per cent of the vote, plus/minus 12 per cent. In the 2021 election, the Meadow Lake region had the most valid votes at the polls (about 2,450) and the vast majority were garnered by now-former MP Gary Vidal (about 65.8 per cent), the Conservative incumbent at the time. According to Elections Canada, if the new boundaries had been in place during the 2021 election, the Liberals would have won the seat. Éric Grenier, a polls analyst and the creator of says Conservatives won the seat comfortably in 2021 with support from Meadow Lake. He says the Conservatives would have finished third behind the Liberals if the redrawn boundaries had been in place. "If the Liberals form the government and they have a seat from Saskatchewan, that means at least they'll have one voice from Saskatchewan in the caucus," Grenier said. "One of the issues that the Liberals have had over the last few elections is they've had very few MPs from Western Canada outside of British Columbia and Winnipeg," he said. The other top voting areas in the riding — including La Ronge, Spiritwood, Christopher Lake, Creighton and Debden — also voted Conservative. In fact, the top eight regions that put forward the most valid votes (not including mail-in ballots) opted for the Tories. The issue for the Conservatives is that all of those communities, with the exception of La Ronge and Creighton, are no longer within the northern electoral boundary. "You have basically taken a bunch of conservative voters and moved them into ridings that kind of border Prince Albert or that are further south of that riding," said Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Saskatchewan. He says Saskatchewan's rural population is strongly conservative — until you get farther north: "I would suggest this is a northern Prairie riding that just is more open to progressives than most other rural Prairie ridings and probably will continue to be like that." Over the past nearly three decades, the region has ping-ponged among the three major parties: the Conservative Party of Canada, the Liberal Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party. As of Friday afternoon, the only election candidate for the riding confirmed by Elections Canada is Jim Lemaigre, running for the Conservatives. For the remainder of the parties: The Liberals have acclaimed Buckley Belanger for the seat. The federal NDP website shows Doug Racine as their candidate for the riding. The Green Party has listed Jacqueline Hanson as their candidate for the riding. The People's Party of Canada does not have a candidate for the region listed on their website. Cost of living front of mind In the province's north, the cost of living is higher. At Northern Store, the local grocery store in Stony Rapids, the cost of a 10-kilogram bag of flour is more than $40, while a three-litre bottle of olive oil runs for more than $70. Residents who spoke with CBC said the cost of living was among their top election priorities. "As you'll see, we have probably some of the most expensive milk and eggs in the whole country," Brandon Calvert said. "They complain about the egg prices in the States, but our eggs are always probably three, four times more than theirs are right now." He suggested the government could subsidize freight costs to help reduce prices at the till. Shaun Suski, a staunch Conservative supporter living in Creighton, about 430 kilometres northeast of Saskatoon, says his monthly electrical bill is more than $1,000 during the winter months. "Cost of living up here has gone up quite a bit, fuel is high, all that and carbon tax — it's hurting us for sure," he said. "Anything that we could get rid of taxes and help us save a little more and put more in our pocket is great for us." He's hesitant to trust polling suggesting Saskatchewan's northern riding could fall to the Liberals. And while the Liberal government recently pulled back the consumer carbon tax, Suski feels more comfortable voting for the party that has argued in favour of removing the tax long before the election was called. "I find [the Liberals] are just saying it now because it is election time," he said. "Before, when it was always brought up, they always fought it." Suksi says crime is also an issue in the region,leading him to lean toward Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his tough-on-crime mentality. Voter keeps an eye on rabbitsg Vince Ahenakew, a long-time Liberal supporter living in Île-à-la-Crosse, is backing a red-led north and, in doing so, he's keeping a watchful eye of the rabbits. "Kâ mihcåtitwâw wâposhwak êkota anima Lî liberal ta otahowêwak," [If there's a lot of rabbits during election season, the Liberals are going to win] he said, explaining he heard the Northern Michif phrase from elders. "And usually, they're right," he laughed. Ahenakew says he supports the Liberals because he believes their administration has best supported the country's Indigenous population. Île-à-la-Crosse, a community of about 1,425 located about 376 kilometres northwest of Saskatoon, voted Liberal in 2021. Of the top 10 communities with the most total valid votes cast, it was the only one to vote Liberal. Ahenakew says there are social and health issues in the north — including mental health and drug use — he believes could be partially resolved by better connecting with Indigenous culture. As well, he added, people in the north don't have the same easy access to medical and dental services as those in the south. Since the northern population has to pay more in travel to access those services, he says, they should not be taxed the same. Road infrastructure, education and employment are also top issues for him. And while he's a Liberal supporter, he wished luck to candidates in every party. "They all want what is best for Canada," Ahenakew said.
CBC
24-03-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Sask. has been a sea of blue in recent federal elections. Here's why it's worth watching this time around
Social Sharing Saskatchewan has been almost entirely blue in federal politics since the Conservative Party of Canada first ran a slate of candidates in the province in 2004. While the Liberals and the NDP have picked up occasional seats, Saskatchewan's 14 federal ridings remain a stronghold for the Conservatives. With a federal election looming, CBC News approached experts to get their views on the state of the race in the province. WATCH| How Carney's win changes the election campaign: At Issue: How Carney's win changes the election campaign 14 days ago Duration 6:15 'The most conservative province' There are 14 federal districts in Saskatchewan. The Conservatives have controlled all of them since 2019. Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, said that is unlikely to change this election. "My view is Saskatchewan is probably the most conservative province in the country, more so than Alberta," Westlake said. Jim Farney, director of the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, agreed. "Fundamentally, we look like a blue province," Farney said. Farney said that at the moment, Saskatchewan is likely more supportive of the Conservatives than it is of the province's governing Saskatchewan Party. Westlake said Saskatchewan is a very rural province, and an increasing urban-rural divide will make it difficult for the Liberals or the NDP to secure enough votes. While Alberta may view itself as a steadfast Conservative province, there are pockets of Calgary and Edmonton that are hospitable to the Liberals or the NDP, Westlake said. "It is not clear that those same pockets exist in Saskatchewan," Westlake said. Boundary changes put at least 1 riding in play The electoral boundaries of all 14 Saskatchewan ridings changed as part of the 2022 electoral redistribution process. The experts CBC spoke with said the changes will likely have little effect on the outcomes — except in one place. All three agree the riding of Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River is now in play for the Liberals and NDP. "With Meadow Lake being detached and added to the old Battlefords–Lloydminster riding, a significant chunk of the Conservative vote has gone with it," said Eric Grenier, a polls analyst and the creator of "Enough of it to make the riding very difficult for the Conservatives." WATCH| Carney says transition to power will be seamless and quick: Carney says transition to power will be seamless and quick 14 days ago Duration 1:14 New Liberal Leader Mark Carney says his Monday discussion with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau covered U.S.-Canada relations and national security. Westlake said he looked at the data from past elections, and if the current boundaries had been used in 2019 or 2021 the riding "would have voted NDP in 2019 and Liberal in 2021." "That riding gets really interesting," Westlake said. While the Saskatchewan NDP almost swept all of the seats in the province's cities in the 2024 provincial election, the experts say we're unlikely to see something similar at the federal level. "Provincial and federal elections happen in their own distinct environments," Westlake said. Ballot box questions have changed Farney and Westlake told CBC News in separate interviews that if an election had been called in the fall, it likely would've resulted in an election framed around affordability or whether the economy was doing well. Then along came Donald Trump. "Now it's the much more existential question of who's better to deal with with Donald Trump and tariffs," Farney said. Having a race focused on affordability would've been bad for the Liberals, Westlake said. As a long-term, incumbent government, the Liberals will be blamed for problems with the economy, health care and inflation, he said. Refocusing the question on Trump and tariffs means the Liberals are "not nearly at the same kind of disadvantage against the Conservatives" as they would've been on cost of living, Westlake said. Farney and Westlake said that may make the election more competitive overall, even it doesn't play out that way in Saskatchewan. Both said the carbon tax will continue to play a role in resource-dependent Saskatchewan, even if this doesn't end up being the " Carbon Tax Election" Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had been calling for. Farney said the Conservatives are likely to focus on the message that the "economy will get better when government gets smaller and we cut your taxes." "As a political messaging operation that's much easier to sell," Farney said. Westlake said that even with the carbon tax falling out of favour among the Liberals, it will remain a metaphorical weapon for the Conservatives. Even retreating from the policy or promising to end it is unlikely to stop the Liberals from being tagged on the subject. "The Conservatives can still ask the question, why did you support this and why did your party support this over the last 10 years?" Westlake said.
