17-07-2025
How ‘the triangle' is plotting the future of European defence
The blueprint for the future of European defence is buried in Britain's new 'friendship treaty' with Germany.
It's hidden by the warm talk of school exchanges, shared values, trade and direct rail links, but look closely enough and you can see that steel foundations are being laid.
It's a future that will be dominated by the 'triangle' of London, Paris, and Berlin – a partnership of Europe's two nuclear powers with its richest nation, which has plans to build its strongest army.
The clues are in the treaty, signed on Thursday in London by Sir Keir Starmer and Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor. It declares that 'the parties shall seek to intensify the trilateral cooperation with the French Republic' to 'jointly address international challenges'.
The US, the guarantor of European security since the Second World War, will be increasingly distant and turn more and more to Asia and the Pacific.
Ukraine, meanwhile, will be armed by a combination of European weapons and US arms, paid for by Europe, to keep the Russians at bay.
Sir Keir signed defence pacts with the EU in May, and with France last week. Mr Merz said it was 'no coincidence' that he came to Britain a week later.
Russia aggression in Ukraine is an undeniable catalyst for the security agreements. The new pact speaks of 'the Russian Federation's brutal war of aggression on the European continent as the most significant and direct threat to their security'.
But the election of Donald Trump was every bit as influential. Diplomats now play down talk of the US ditching Nato or Mr Trump's undermining of article five of the alliance, which states that an attack on one ally is one on all.
Mr Trump himself is far more conciliatory since securing promises from Europe to hit a 5 per cent of GDP defence spending target.
Mr Merz and Sir Keir were at pains to say that Europe and the US were pulling in the same direction, but there is a reason why the deals with France and Britain contain pledges that an attack on one ally is an attack on both.
If there is no need for a Nato safety net, why replicate article five?
The German treaty has several references to nuclear threats.
Mr Merz called for the protection of Trident and the French deterrent after his election victory in February, saying Nato could be dead by June because of the US president.
There is symbolic value in such language in showing a united front against Putin. But it's clear that Berlin, London and Paris don't want to be caught short by Washington again. Officials have called the group 'the triangle'.
This historic defence pact is less about the present than the future. The pacts with Germany, France and the EU unlock cooperation in the sensitive areas of defence manufacturing and research.
There are also measures to harmonise export laws to make it easier to trade arms.
'The parties shall seek to enhance industrial and capability cooperation through a long-term joint approach endeavouring to deliver effective military capabilities efficiently, minimising national constraints, and strengthening industrial competitiveness,' the treaty reads.
Such cooperation takes time to get up and running, but Europe is beginning to show it is serious about overhauling its defence industry.
Perhaps that's why Mr Trump has agreed to send US arms, paid for by Europe, to Ukraine. With competition for US arms sales on the horizon, perhaps the president wanted to get some deals over the line now.
