Latest news with #tropicalweather
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Erin becomes a Category 3 hurricane in the Caribbean and is expected to strengthen further
Puerto Rico Tropical Weather SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Erin became a Category 3 hurricane in the Caribbean early Saturday and is expected to strengthen further during the day, the National Hurricane Center reported. The storm is currently 170 miles (275 kilometers) northeast of Anguilla with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 kph). It is moving west-northwest at 20 mph (31 kph). It is currently not forecast to hit land, but strong winds are affecting nearby islands, prompting forecasters to warn of possible flooding and landslides.. The NHC said it currently expected Erin to become a Category 4 storm later Saturday but to eventually swerve away from the continental United States. Tropical storm watches are in place for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy and Sint Maarten. Up to 4 inches (10 centimeters) are expected, with isolated totals of up to 6 inches (15 centimeters), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. 'Locally, considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible,' the NHC said. Hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry said Erin is forecast to eventually take a sharp turn northeast that would put it on a path between the U.S. and Bermuda. 'All of our best consensus aids show Erin turning safely east of the United States next week, but it'll be a much closer call for Bermuda, which could land on the stronger eastern side of Erin,' he said. Erin is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but the first to reach hurricane status. 'Erin is forecast to explode into a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it moves across very warm waters in the open Atlantic. Water temperatures at the surface and hundreds of feet deep are several degrees higher than the historical average,' said Alex DaSilva, Accuweather's lead hurricane expert. This year's season is once again expected to be unusually busy. The forecast calls for six to 10 hurricanes, with three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph). The U.S. government has deployed more than 200 employees from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and other agencies to Puerto Rico as a precaution as forecasters issued a flood watch for the entire U.S. territory from late Friday into Monday. Puerto Rico Housing Secretary Ciary Pérez Peña said 367 shelters have been inspected and could be opened if needed. The U.S. Coast Guard said Friday that it closed six seaports in Puerto Rico and two in the U.S. Virgin Islands to all incoming vessels unless they had received prior authorization. Meanwhile, officials in the Bahamas said they prepared some public shelters as a precaution as they urged people to track the hurricane. 'These storms are very volatile and can make sudden shifts in movement,' said Aarone Sargent, managing director for the Bahamas' disaster risk management authority.
Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
In a word, wet. What's ahead for much of Florida through Fourth of July holiday
"Wet." That's the one-word description the National Weather Service Melbourne used to describe what east-central Florida can expect through the Fourth of July. And that's even if a system dropping into the southeastern United States and Florida doesn't spin into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which as of July 1, it currently has a low chance — 30% — of doing. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little," the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. July 1. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast." What happens over the holiday weekend all depends on where, how or if that system develops, although there is "pretty good agreement for the unsettled pattern and flooding potential to continue through the weekend." If the right conditions are there, they could "potentially ignite tropical development," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert in an email Monday, June 30. "This is fairly common this time of the year, June and July, that you get old frontal boundaries kind of coming off the southeast coast and into the Gulf and stalling. And then you get a little area of spin to develop along that decaying cold front, and then that's how you get these usually fairly short-lived tropical systems early in the season. "They tend to be a little on the weaker side, but they can bring a lot of rain, especially if they do develop. I think that's what we might end up seeing here." "A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf," the National Hurricane Center said. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little." ➤ National Hurricane Center tracking system that could stall over Florida Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent. "A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," DaSilva said. "The Fourth of July looks pretty wet overall for the state of Florida, especially the peninsula," DaSilva said. "This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next five to seven days," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "However, this system could bring increased shower and thunderstorm activity and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely. "Regardless of tropical development, local flooding rain risk remains into the weekend. Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. ... with a potential for flash flooding, the National Weather Service Jacksonville posted on X. "Models disagree on this exact point about where tropical development could occur," according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network. "The American model depicts a very broad, yet undefined, center of circulation. This wide area of low pressure would form west of Florida over the eastern Gulf. "The European model shows a low-pressure system remaining east of Florida, approximately 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral. "These two models represent two very different scenarios; they could produce opposite results regarding the weather for the holiday weekend in Florida," Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said. "If the American model verifies and a storm develops over the Gulf, there could be increased rainfall activity for the Florida peninsula during the holiday weekend. If the European model is confirmed, conditions are likely to remain drier than normal for the July 4th weekend." "If tropical system does eventually develop east of Florida or south of the Carolinas, steering currents are light, so it could well linger near the Gulf Stream into next week," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. "Dry air and some northerly wind shear would most likely keep anything that develops weak." Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network. "For Florida's sake, it would be better for it to happen east of Florida because then it would likely just get pushed out to sea. "If it happens in the Gulf, it's likely to be pushed eastward into Florida, although there are some indications that, depending on the strength of the Bermuda High, it could actually push the storm a little farther west, maybe towards Louisiana. I think that's a fairly low chance right now," DaSilva said. "I think the most likely would it be just pushed east into Florida. But that's something that we would have to watch for as well." The system moving east over the U.S. could "ignite" a tropical system, the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said. Even if there is no tropical development, expect plenty of rain this week and into the holiday weekend across Florida, DaSilva said. "We must continue to monitor the progress of the frontal system, which will inject and deliver sufficient energy near Florida. At this point, it is impossible to know precisely where, and if, a storm could form," Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said. "Expected rainfall totals over the five days across most of Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast are in the 2-4' range, with locally higher accumulations and slight chances of localized flash flooding. North Florida rain chances will decline in a few days, but the Florida peninsula will see elevated rain coverage through the weekend," Truchelut said. Here's the forecast around Florida for the holiday weekend: , western Panhandle: July 4th: High 92 Saturday: High 91; rain chances 30% Sunday: High 90; rain chances 50% , central Panhandle: July 4th: High 94; rain chances 50% Saturday: High 92; rain chances 40% Sunday: High 90; rain chances 50% Jacksonville, North Florida: July 4th: High 90; rain chances 60% Saturday: High 89; rain chances 60% Sunday: High 89; rain chances 70% to east-central Florida: July 4th: High 88; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 86; rain chances 70% Sunday: High 87; rain chances 70% West Palm Beach to , South Florida: July 4th: High 84; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 83; rain chances 70% Sunday: High 84; rain chances 60% to , Southwest Florida: July 4th: High 85; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 86; rain chances 70% Sunday: High 86; rain chances 70% Heading to one of the central Florida theme parks? Here's your forecast for Orlando: July 4: High 89; rain chances 80% Saturday: High 88; rain chances 80% Sunday: High 89; rain chances 70% The average date for the third named storm in the Atlantic basin is Aug. 3, DaSilva said. Andrea, the first named storm of the season formed a little later than average, on June 24, four days past the average date of June 20 for the first named storm of the season. Barry formed June 29, well ahead of the historical average of July 17. Water temperatures in the Gulf would support tropical development, but wind shear and some dry air from Saharan dust would work against tropical development, DaSilva said. "We don't anticipate this blowing up into a hurricane. If it develops, it's likely to be a tropical depression or a tropical storm, which could enhance the rainfall across Florida." "Most of the time, 'homegrown' storms tend to be on the weaker side in terms of wind speed, but a lot of times they tend to be big rainmakers," DaSilva said. "They also give people less time to react because they form closer to the coast. You don't have the luxury of watching it come across the entirety of the Atlantic. We're urging people to follow the forecast updates closely over the next couple of days. "It's possible that nothing develops at all and it just happens to be a wetter weekend. But there is also the possibility that we might end up with a tropical depression or a tropical storm, and it can really enhance the rainfall, and we could have some flooding issues. "There isn't enough time. If anything develops, it would only be over the water for a day or two before pushing inland if it develops in the eastern Gulf." National Weather Service Mobile on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Tallahassee on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Jacksonville on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter We will continue to update our weather coverage as conditions warrant. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add new information. This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Rain on Fourth of July 2025? What's ahead for Florida this weekend
Yahoo
22-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
New area to watch for tropical development flagged in central Atlantic Ocean
The first three weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season have remained void of any tropical threats, but the National Hurricane Center is now watching an area of disturbed weather in the central subtropical Atlantic.
Bloomberg
06-06-2025
- Climate
- Bloomberg
Hong Kong Tracks System That May Develop Into First 2025 Typhoon
Hong Kong's weather bureau is tracking a tropical disturbance spinning in the warm waters east of the Philippines, which may develop into the first typhoon of the season next week. The low-pressure system may enter the South China Sea and move toward the southern coast of mainland China around the middle of next week, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. However, the agency said there's still uncertainty over how quickly it will develop, and what track the storm may take.
Yahoo
31-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
First Bouts Of Saharan Dust Are Reaching Caribbean, US. Here's What To Know About Its Impact On Hurricane Season And Your Health
The first big surge of Saharan dust is expected to reach the Gulf Coast this weekend and into next week. Here's what you need to know about this dust: In Brief: Saharan dust travels thousands of miles from Africa to the Americas each spring and summer. Once or twice a summer, one of these SALs makes a complete 5,000-plus mile journey as far west as the Gulf Coast, from Florida to Texas. In Depth: More formally, it is known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), this dry dust plume commonly forms from late spring through early fall and moves into the tropical Atlantic Ocean every three to five days, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. The Saharan Air Layer is typically located between 5,000 and 20,000 feet above the Earth's surface. It is transported westward by bursts of strong winds and tropical waves as they move westward from Africa to the Pacific. Here are three things dust can do: 1. Drier air can squash thunderstorms and tropical systems: One of the reasons we don't start watching the stretch between Africa and the Caribbean for tropical activity in June and July is because of this dust. The dust is not only dry but also has a sinking motion in areas that it passes through. This is not favorable for thunderstorm growth. Tropical waves often have a rough time developing if they are enshrouded by the Saharan air layer. Dust can also zap other ingredients needed for tropical development. Saharan air can reflect sunlight before it can reach the Atlantic, slightly cooling the oceans. Stronger winds within the SAL also increase wind shear, which can either tilt or rip apart a tropical system. But as the dust and wind shear weaken ocean warmth will peak in the late summer months. That's why the heart of the hurricane season is from late August into October, during which 82% of a hurricane season's activity usually takes place. This same thunderstorm-squashing idea that is found in the tropics is also found when the dust gets closer to the Southeast. When dust is passing through, there is often a multiday drop in rain chances until the dust is gone. In Florida, this means there is a break in the rainy season, but that's not always good news. This pause in sea breeze thunderstorms allows Florida's typical high temperature of 90-92 degrees to rise by a few degrees without much of a drop in surface humidity. This can make it even more uncomfortable to be outside. Be sure to take breaks and keep hydrated. (For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.) 2. Dust can diminish air quality: When a Saharan Air Layer arrives, you'll typically notice hazier skies than usual for a summer day. This is your first signal that you may want to check the air quality. Health experts say the dust particles could trigger symptoms similar to springtime allergies or cause respiratory irritation for people with conditions like asthma or emphysema. If you are susceptible to breathing issues, you may want to limit your time outdoors or take a mask with you if you have to leave your home. 3. Particles can make for more beautiful sunrises and sunsets: If the air quality in your area isn't too bad, head outside early or late in the day. If you know that dust is overhead, you'll probably notice that your sunrises and sunsets appear more orange or reddish. This can make for some spectacular photos. MORE ON Hurricane Season's Opening Act: What To Expect In June What The 'Cone Of Uncertainty' Does And Doesn't Tell You Latest Hurricane Season Outlook Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
