7 days ago
Ultra-luxury home sales up in GTA, even as ‘chaos' becomes new normal in Toronto real estate market
While data show many potential homebuyers are sitting out of Toronto's real estate market for now, it appears that those shopping for the GTA's most expensive homes are doing the opposite.
Sales of ultra-luxury homes worth more than $10 million in the Greater Toronto Area are up 200 per cent for the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, according to a new report from Sotheby's International Realty Canada.
'Residential sales in Canada's largest luxury real estate market declined in the first half of 2025 as uncertainty slowed activity across much of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA),' the report says. 'However, the region's ultra-luxury real estate market defied headwinds, while sales activity in several of Toronto most prestigious neighbourhoods remained resilient.'
According to the report, 12 properties worth more than $10 million were sold in the Greater Toronto Area between January and June, seven of them in Toronto proper. That compares to just four sales in that category in the same period last year.
At the same time, sales have declined in just about every other home category.
Sales of $4 million-plus homes in the GTA were down 28 per cent year over year, while sales of $1 million-plus homes fell 23 per cent.
So why are ultra-luxury home sales bucking the trend?
'Just think how Warren Buffett buys. He buys when everybody else is not buying,' says Dianne Usher, managing broker for Sotheby's International Realty Canada. 'That's the thinking of the ultra luxury buyer. Nobody else is buying, there's uncertainty in the marketplace. They have confidence in the market, and they're out there and they're looking and they're buying.'
With an extension of the federal foreign buyers ban still in place, all of the purchasers have been local, she says.
So what is someone looking for if they have $10 million to spend on a new pad?
'The prime real estate buyer is very, very selective today. You know, schools, lifestyle, location play a huge, huge role,' Usher said. 'They want something that exudes quality, elegance. They want something that's comfortable. They don't want anything particularly outlandish or daring as well. They want something that is solid and withstands the test of time.'
Some of the Toronto neighbourhoods that fit the bill include areas like The Bridal Path, Rosedale, Moore Park, The Annex, Yorkville, and The Kingsway.
More sales of $10 million-plus properties are also taking place 'off-market,' the report notes.
Usher says that this could be for a variety of reasons, including the fact that expensive homes are often difficult to accurately price and often take longer to sell. An interested buyer for the property might only come forward after a listing has expired, or the seller could choose not to list in order to sell more discretely.
'Many sellers, particularly in the ultra luxury rage, don't want their names disclosed when they sell a property, or even if they're selling a property, they don't want that information in the public purview. They're very much more private, very much more discreet,' she says.
Investors turning away from condos
Of the dozen properties that sold for $10 million plus so far this year, all have been freeholds.
'None of them are the high-end luxury condos,' Usher said.
And while just 222 homes worth $4 million or more were sold in the GTA in the first half of this year, just 18 of them were condos.
'Buyer's market conditions remained pervasive across the GTA's luxury condominium segment in the first half of 2025, as inventory surged, purchasing timelines lengthened and price negotiations skewed in favour of prospective buyers,' the report states.
'Sotheby's International Realty Canada experts report that cautious investors have retreated from Toronto's condominium market, shifting the buyer profile toward end-users with highly selective lifestyle-driven preferences.'
Overall condominium sales over $1 million in the GTA were down 29 per cent year-over-year to 938 units.
The report says the drop reflects 'buyer hesitancy in an uncertain market' and adds that a buyer's markets is expected to persist for some time.
'As the first half of 2025 drew to a close, threats to the Canadian economy continued to influence consumer sentiment across the region's conventional and luxury markets,' the report states.
'With active listings up more than 30 per cent in June according to TRREB, and absorption rates lagging, buyer-friendly conditions are expected to persist across much of the region's conventional and luxury segments through the summer months.'
Fourth quarter could see 'active market' in other categories
But while uncertainty is expected to continue in the market, Usher says she sees reason for optimism.
'The chaos is now translating into a new normal,' Usher says. 'So it's not that this too will pass. It's just that we've learned as a community to adjust, pivot and adapt.'
She said that while buyers in the ultra luxury segment might have unique circumstances, their confidence in the market suggests they're looking past some of the political and economic turmoil and that Toronto is a good long-term bet for those who plan to live here for many years to come.
'Certainly there's more resilience in the upper-end luxury market. However, I believe that, given what we've weathered so far this year, that we are poised for a very active third quarter, and in the $4 million plus range, as well as over a million for that matter.
'I feel that the there's been chaos, quite candidly, in the spring of this year, and buyers particularly have been sidelined and not sure as to whether to proceed. Well, now chaos is, quite frankly, becoming to perhaps the new normal, and let's just get on with our purchases.'
The Sotheby's report comes on the heels of a Royal LePage report which showed that Toronto home prices declined by three per cent last quarter but are expected to increase by two per cent by the fourth quarter, making up some of the drop.
Usher predicted that with less competition in the market, some buyers might seize on the opportunity to upgrade to higher-end homes.
'Real estate for the average buyer in Toronto, is always a good investment, but it's not a short-term investment; It's a long term investment,' Usher notes. 'If you want to go and buy a piece of property, do a quick fix on it and flip it, this is not the market to do it.
'If you want to buy your first home, your second home, your third home, you want to move up, you want to continue to live and work in Toronto, now is an excellent time.'
