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ABC News
02-05-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Vote Compass helps Australians see where they stand on the political spectrum. Here's what the data shows
In the quick-shifting world of politics it can be difficult to figure out where you sit on the political spectrum — left, right or centre, but the ABC's Vote Compass is here to help. After five weeks of campaigning, commitments, debates and discussion from politicians, we need to cast our ballot tomorrow. But which party stands where? ABC Vote Compass helps visualise how your views on social and economic issues align with politicians and provides information about the candidates in your electorate. More than 1.2 million people have used the tool this in election cycle. It generally takes about 10 minutes to fill out the 30-question survey. Vote Compass has been designed by political scientists at Canada-based Vox Pop Labs to help improve electoral awareness and start important conversations about public policy. It makes it easy to compare your views, not just to the major parties, but to your friends and family, and start discussions about the big issues this election. Election essentials: Find out where your What does your Vote Compass result mean? On your results page, you'll see two graphs. One is a plot on a two-dimensional graph that calculates your alignment on a social and economic scale. Here's how to think about what the "compass" means: If you're higher on the chart, your views on the included issues are more socially progressive. If you're lower, then you're more socially conservative If you're on the left side, you're more aligned with the economic "left", while if you're on the right, you're on the economic "right" Vote Compass uses your answers to calculate your alignment on a social and economic scale. ( ABC News ) The other plot will show the extent of your agreement and disagreement with the parties and candidates on the policy issues included in Vote Compass. You can weight your results based on which issues you rank as more or less important. Further down, you can explore how your answers compare question by question. Click on the party or candidate to see an explanation of their position. If you've identified your electorate, you'll be shown a list of the candidates campaigning for your vote, as well as a link to Vox Pop Labs founder Clifton van der Linden says the idea behind Vote Compass is to help people understand how they align with political parties on public policy. "It is simply meant to help Australians have a sense that they are well-informed about the broad range of policy issues that are salient in this campaign and about the positions that the parties hold on those issues," he says. Dr van der Linden says Vote Compass doesn't tell you how to vote or who to vote for, nor does it try to predict how people will vote. Read more about the federal election: Want even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 Catch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on Cost of living rises to the top, housing dream harder to achieve The responses to Vote Compass also provide an insight into attitudes on issues. The cost of living came out on top as the most important issue for Vote Compass respondents, followed by the economy and finance and government operations. The cost of living was also highlighted as a About 45 per cent of Vote Compass respondents say they are finding it difficult to cope on their current income. Vote Compass data shows 90 per cent of respondents think it is more difficult for young Australians to buy a house today than it was for previous generations. This follows In regards to solutions to the housing crisis, Vote Compass data shows 62.7 per cent of respondents said there should be more government intervention. Almost 50 per cent of respondents agree there should be fewer tax breaks on investment properties while about 27 per cent disagree. However, the data shows respondents are split on whether there should be other changes to tax policies. About 43 per cent of respondents do not think the government should change its tax policies to discourage people from using housing as an investment while 36 per cent are in favour of changes. This finding is from a weighted sample of 124,988 respondents. Amid the housing crisis, migration levels have been a talking point during the campaign, but experts say migration is a small part of the puzzle. The data shows roughly 49 per cent of about 340,000 respondents want "many fewer" or "somewhat fewer" That's a significant change from 2022's Vote Compass results, in which 49 per cent of respondents said Australia should welcome "somewhat more" or "many more" immigrants. Nuclear, young voters and the US factor The ABC has been reporting on findings from Vote Compass findings throughout the campaign. About 47 per cent of respondents said they strongly disagreed or somewhat disagreed Vote Compass data suggests there has been a shift in views since the last election. This year 36 per cent of respondents told Vote Compass much more should be done to reduce Australia's carbon emissions. That figure is down from 2022 when 61 per cent of participants said much more should be done. This year gen Z and millennials will make up the largest voting bloc for the first time. According to Vote Compass responses, the The data shows 67 per cent of generation Z women identified as left or moderately left, compared to 52 per cent of women from other generations. US President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement has meant the United States has featured throughout the campaign. About 47 per cent of Vote Compass respondents believe The Lowy Institute recently found Australians' trust in the US had dropped since Mr Trump's return to the White House, but Australians still About Vote Compass data Vote Compass is an educational tool designed to promote electoral literacy and civic engagement. While not a conventional public opinion poll, Vote Compass responses can be analysed using statistical methods similar to those used in polling to try to adjust for sampling bias. Responses have been weighted by gender, age, education, language, religion, place of residence and past vote to account for the selection effects of the sample, Loading Having trouble seeing this form? Try
Toronto Star
25-04-2025
- Politics
- Toronto Star
Mark Carney's Liberals set to win a majority as poll analysis says Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives flatlining in Ontario
As the federal campaign enters its final days, Mark Carney's Liberals appear set to win a majority Monday, according to the Star's poll aggregator, the Signal. While Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have closed the gap nationally in terms of voter preference, that does not seem to be translating into additional seats for the official opposition party. 'One thing you see is this flat line (in support) for the Conservatives in Ontario,' said Clifton van der Linden, a McMaster University political science professor and the CEO of Vox Pop Labs, the independent research organization that developed the Signal, which analyzes publicly available polling data in a supercomputer. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'They were just not able to regain any of the ground that they had before Justin Trudeau resigned,' said van der Linden, referring to the former Liberal prime minister who retired seven weeks ago. 'The Conservatives saw a decline in their vote share. It's levelled out throughout the election campaign and there's been no movement,' the professor said. 'When we see the race narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals, it's not because the Conservatives are picking up votes in places like Ontario,' he said. 'The Liberal decline (nationally) is coming at the expense of a small bump in the NDP vote share in Ontario and it's coming at the expense of the Bloc in Quebec. So these are not Liberal losses that are a function of Conservative gains.' On Friday, Carney's Liberals were at 40.5 per cent support and on track to eke out a narrow majority with 175 seats in the 343-member House of Commons. Poilievre's Tories were at 39.7 per cent and projected to win 128 seats. Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats were at 9.2 per cent and 10 seats, while Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois was at 6.4 per cent and 28 seats. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The Greens of co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault were at 1.8 per cent and two seats, while Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada was at 1.3 per cent and no seats. On Jan. 1, the week before Trudeau announced he was quitting, the Signal had the Tories at 46.9 per cent support, the NDP at 18.7 per cent, the Liberals at 18.6 per cent, the Bloc at 9.7 per cent and the Greens at 2.7 per cent. While the Signal projects Poilievre's riding of Carleton is a 'safe' Tory seat, the Star first reported Wednesday that his campaign is scrambling to funnel resources to ensure the 21-year MP leader wins his constituency. 'Actions sometimes speak louder than words,' said van der Linden, noting Carleton had the highest advance voter turnout of any riding in the country and the Tories have hastily organized a last-minute rally there Sunday. 'Maybe they have internal polling and those are the numbers that party strategists are really going to focus on, not national swing models,' he said. 'The way that all the polling aggregators work in terms of riding level projections is that they typically in their models give an incumbency boost, so Poilievre gains from that. They also have a star candidate boost, so Poilievre gains from that. So no wonder all the polls and poll aggregators are saying that Carlton is a safe seat.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW But van der Linden stressed there are 'difficulties or uncertainties predicting these very, very bespoke riding-level dynamics' as are being seen in Carleton where a protest group has added dozens of names to the ballot. 'Given the emphasis that the party has on securing that riding and on campaigning in that riding, it suggests perhaps that they have some riding-level data that's prompted this action,' he said. The Liberals, meanwhile, are also pouring in staff to try to make Grit challenger Bruce Fanjoy a giant killer. 'Poilievre's riding of Carleton had the highest advance voter turnout in the country. That looks ominous,' crowed an internal Liberal email touting the fact 43,494 people voted in the advance polls there over the Easter long weekend. 'Keep in mind his is an Ottawa-area riding — lots of civil servants who are concerned about his commitment to reduce size of government,' the missive said. Overall in Ontario, the Signal said the Liberals were at 45.5 per cent and expected to win 79 of the province's 122 ridings. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The Tories were at 40.3 per cent and 39 seats, the New Democrats were at 10.1 per cent and three seats while the Greens were at 1.7 per cent and one seat. At the dissolution of Parliament on March 23, the Liberals held 152 seats, the Tories 120, the Bloc 33, the NDP 24 and the Greens two. There were three Independents and four vacancies in the 338-seat Commons, which is expanding by five ridings due to population growth. With files from Kristin Rushowy Politics Headlines Newsletter Get the latest news and unmatched insights in your inbox every evening Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. Please enter a valid email address. Sign Up Yes, I'd also like to receive customized content suggestions and promotional messages from the Star. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Politics Headlines Newsletter You're signed up! You'll start getting Politics Headlines in your inbox soon. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page.
Hamilton Spectator
25-04-2025
- Politics
- Hamilton Spectator
Mark Carney's Liberals set to win a majority as poll analysis says Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives flatlining in Ontario
As the federal campaign enters its final days, Mark Carney's Liberals appear set to win a majority Monday, according to the Star's poll aggregator, the Signal . While Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have closed the gap nationally in terms of voter preference, that does not seem to be translating into additional seats for the official opposition party. 'One thing you see is this flat line (in support) for the Conservatives in Ontario,' said Clifton van der Linden, a McMaster University political science professor and the CEO of Vox Pop Labs, the independent research organization that developed the Signal, which analyzes publicly available polling data in a supercomputer. 'They were just not able to regain any of the ground that they had before Justin Trudeau resigned,' said van der Linden, referring to the former Liberal prime minister who retired seven weeks ago. 'The Conservatives saw a decline in their vote share. It's levelled out throughout the election campaign and there's been no movement,' the professor said. 'When we see the race narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals, it's not because the Conservatives are picking up votes in places like Ontario,' he said. 'The Liberal decline (nationally) is coming at the expense of a small bump in the NDP vote share in Ontario and it's coming at the expense of the Bloc in Quebec. So these are not Liberal losses that are a function of Conservative gains.' On Friday, Carney's Liberals were at 40.5 per cent support and on track to eke out a narrow majority with 175 seats in the 343-member House of Commons. Poilievre's Tories were at 39.7 per cent and projected to win 128 seats. Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats were at 9.2 per cent and 10 seats, while Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois was at 6.4 per cent and 28 seats. The Greens of co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault were at 1.8 per cent and two seats, while Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada was at 1.3 per cent and no seats. On Jan. 1, the week before Trudeau announced he was quitting, the Signal had the Tories at 46.9 per cent support, the NDP at 18.7 per cent, the Liberals at 18.6 per cent, the Bloc at 9.7 per cent and the Greens at 2.7 per cent. While the Signal projects Poilievre's riding of Carleton is a 'safe' Tory seat, the Star first reported Wednesday that his campaign is scrambling to funnel resources to ensure the 21-year MP leader wins his constituency. 'Actions sometimes speak louder than words,' said van der Linden, noting Carleton had the highest advance voter turnout of any riding in the country and the Tories have hastily organized a last-minute rally there Sunday. 'Maybe they have internal polling and those are the numbers that party strategists are really going to focus on, not national swing models,' he said. 'The way that all the polling aggregators work in terms of riding level projections is that they typically in their models give an incumbency boost, so Poilievre gains from that. They also have a star candidate boost, so Poilievre gains from that. So no wonder all the polls and poll aggregators are saying that Carlton is a safe seat.' But van der Linden stressed there are 'difficulties or uncertainties predicting these very, very bespoke riding-level dynamics' as are being seen in Carleton where a protest group has added dozens of names to the ballot. 'Given the emphasis that the party has on securing that riding and on campaigning in that riding, it suggests perhaps that they have some riding-level data that's prompted this action,' he said. The Liberals, meanwhile, are also pouring in staff to try to make Grit challenger Bruce Fanjoy a giant killer. 'Poilievre's riding of Carleton had the highest advance voter turnout in the country. That looks ominous,' crowed an internal Liberal email touting the fact 43,494 people voted in the advance polls there over the Easter long weekend. 'Keep in mind his is an Ottawa-area riding — lots of civil servants who are concerned about his commitment to reduce size of government,' the missive said. Overall in Ontario, the Signal said the Liberals were at 45.5 per cent and expected to win 79 of the province's 122 ridings. The Tories were at 40.3 per cent and 39 seats, the New Democrats were at 10.1 per cent and three seats while the Greens were at 1.7 per cent and one seat. At the dissolution of Parliament on March 23, the Liberals held 152 seats, the Tories 120, the Bloc 33, the NDP 24 and the Greens two. There were three Independents and four vacancies in the 338-seat Commons, which is expanding by five ridings due to population growth. With files from Kristin Rushowy
