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Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Time to stash Eury Perez, is Cam Smith figuring it out?
Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, where I review my favorite waiver wire adds and drops for each week of the MLB season. The premise is pretty straightforward. I'll try to give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When I list a player, I'll list the category where I think he'll be helpful or the quick reason he's listed. I hope it will help you determine if the player is a fit for what your team needs. Advertisement For a player to qualify for this list, he needs to be UNDER 40% rostered in Yahoo! formats. I understand you may say, 'These players aren't available in my league,' and I can't help you there. These players are available in over 60% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they're available in many places, and that can hopefully satisfy readers who play in all league types. MLB: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians 2025 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani & Bobby Witt Jr. lead Top 300 rest of season ranks Jordan Romano, Hayden Birdsong and Matt Shaw join the Top 300 this week. Waiver Wire Hitters Will Benson - OF, CIN: 35% rostered (RECENT CALL-UP, POWER UPSIDE) Advertisement Last week, Benson was just 1% rostered in his first week after being recalled. Now, he almost doesn't qualify for this list after going 12-for-32 (.375) with five home runs, 11 RBI, and one steal in his 11 games. Those are certainly exciting numbers, but we've seen this before from Benson. He has tremendous power/speed potential, but also a frustrating approach at the plate. Even in Triple-A this season, he was striking out 29% of the time with a 70% contact rate and 13% swinging strike rate. I think this will probably wind up just being a hot stretch, and there's a chance that you missed the best part of it, but I wouldn't begrudge you crossing your fingers and hoping for the best. If you're in a daily moves league, you could opt for Trevor Larnach - OF, MIN (14% rostered), who has gone 13-for-43 (.302) over his last 11 games with two home runs and nine runs scored. Larnach has seven home runs and 23 RBI on the season, and the Twins' lineup is getting healthier. He's going to play against all right-handed pitching, which makes him a valuable piece in a daily moves league. Jordan Beck - OF, COL: 33% rostered (HOME PARK BONUS, PROSPECT GROWTH) Most of Jordan Beck's value comes from playing in Coors Field, but he's also a young hitter with some power and speed who has a 16% barrel rate on the season His exit velocities aren't great, but he's pulling and lifting the ball more this year, which is going to help him get to his power. He still has just a 70% contact rate and 14.4% swinging strike rate, so the batting average will likely regress, but the power is intriguing, and you can slot him into your lineup every time the Rockies are at home. Just keep in mind that the Rockies' next NINE GAMES will be on the road. If you're looking just for power, Daulton Varsho - OF, TOR (14% rostered) has changed his swing to maximize power output. He's not going to continue to have a 28% HR/FB ratio, but his average exit velocities are through the roof. He's also chasing out of the zone at a career-high rate and sporting a 17% swinging strike rate on the season, so I don't think you'll get much more than a .220 batting average. You may not be able to withstand that in a roto league if you have some other batting average drains. Hyeseong Kim - 2B/SS, LAD: 28% rostered (PLAYING TIME UPSIDE, STEALS UPSIDE) Advertisement Hyeseong Kim is another player who is better utilized in a daily moves league. He's gone 15-for-38 (.395) since being called up with nine runs scored, one home run, and three steals. However, his average exit velocity is just 85.3 mph, and he has a 75% contact rate overall, which jives with what he did in the minors, hitting .252 in 131 plate appearances at Triple-A with a 12% swinging strike rate. His overall contact rate of 75% at Triple-A is fine, but suggests there will be some swing and miss at the big league level, and even though he had a few huge home runs that we saw on Twitter, his average exit velocity at Triple-A was 87.3 mph. The Dodgers claim they're going to start him around four games a week, but with Michael Conforto, Andy Pages, Tommy Edman, and Teoscar Hernandez all needing to get at-bats, it's unclear just how consistent Kim's role will be. If you're just looking for speed, you can go with Jose Caballero - 2B/SS/3B/OF, TB (13% rostered), who is getting nearly every day playing time while moving all over the field, starting in 11 of the last 12 games for the Rays. He's hitting just .257 in that stretch with no home runs and three RBIs, but he does have six steals. Ha-Seong Kim - SS, TB (4% rostered) is currently in Triple-A on a rehab assignment, so it feels like maybe two more weeks with this consistently playing time for Caballero, and it might actually be a good time to stash Kim. Chandler Simpson - OF, TB: 27% rostered (EVERY DAY ROLE, SPEED UPSIDE) I don't quite get why Simpson is still available in a lot of leagues. He's hitting .290 with 13 steals and 15 runs in 29 games. What did we expect him to be? He's not going to hit for power, but he hits at the top of the order against right-handed pitching and will run whenever he gets on. If you want a player who can "win you a category" with his speed, then Simpson is that dude. Drake Baldwin - C, ATL: 24% rostered (PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, TOP TIER PROSPECT) Advertisement Baldwin is in a timeshare with Sean Murphy in Atlanta, but it seems like Baldwin has become the preferred option against right-handed pitching since he hits left-handed. On the season, Baldwin is hitting .355/.400./559 in 100 plate appearances with five home runs, 14 strikeouts, and seven walks. The production has been there, and if he's now going to start 60-70% of the games, that makes him worth adding in all two-catcher formats. I'm still not 100% sure I can get there in a one-catcher league, but if you're starting a fringe top-ten guy, then I could see pivoting to Baldwin. It also seems as though Carlos Narvaez - C, BOS (4% rostered) has emerged as the starting catcher and one of the better rookies in the AL. He was known primarily for his plus defense when he was acquired from the Yankees in a trade this off-season, but he's hitting .291/.357/.480 in 140 plate appearances with five home runs and 17 RBI. He provides top-tier defense behind the plate and is going to start about two-thirds of the games for the Red Sox while hitting near the middle of the order. He should be rostered in all two-catcher leagues. Alec Burleson - 1B/OF, STL: 23% rostered (PLAYING TIME REGAINED, POWER UPSIDE) After losing playing time early in the season to Jordan Walker, Burleson is back to starting essentially every day against right-handed pitching. In 16 games in May, Burleson is hitting .347/.396/.653 with four home runs, 10 RBI, and one steal. The Cardinals have been a solid offense so far this season, and Burleson is a big component of that. He won't play versus lefties, which makes him a better fit in daily moves leagues, but he can be solid in NFBC-type formats when you can change your lineup mid-week as well. Gavin Sheets - 1B/OF, SD (13% rostered) had been in a similar boat, but he has started playing against some lefties recently as well. Sheets is hitting .285/.331/.510 on the season with nine home runs, so he has been productive for the Padres this year. He's hitting in the middle of a lineup that features a lot of strong bats, which means he has a good chance for RBI upside. His multi-position eligibility also makes him a bit more valuable, and he's an add I like in daily moves leagues. Nick Kurtz - 1B, ATH: 21% rostered (POWER UPSIDE, PROSPECT GROWTH IS NOT LINEAR) Advertisement I covered Nick Kurtz in my article this week, where I used Statcast's new bat path metrics to find potential power breakouts. You can read that here. But I also recorded a video on him, which is embedded above, because I think people gave up on him too quickly. He did have a hip flexor injury on Saturday, so keep an eye on that, but the A's have called him day-to-day so far. A similar argument about patience can be made about Cam Smith - 3B/OF, HOU (21% rostered), who is a young player who jumped straight to the big leagues from High-A ball. After struggling in April, he's hitting .314/.397/.392 in May with eight runs scored. Part of the bump in batting average is that his groundball rate has skyrocketed and his power has diminished, but he's a young hitter who is adjusting to MLB pitching and having some success. I'm willing to bet on him continuing to adjust and finding the power stroke again. Chase Meidroth - 2B/3B/SS, CWS: 21% rostered (EVERY DAY JOB, MODEST STEALS UPSIDE) In 18 games in May, Meidroth is hitting .324/.385/.423 with 11 runs scored and seven steals. He had never stolen more than 13 bases in a season at the minor league level, so that number is a bit shocking to me, but he can run a bit and is a smart baseball player on a bad team that has no problem taking chances on the bases. Meidroth is also hitting leadoff and playing every day, so he could accumulate runs and steals while hitting for a solid batting average. That works in a lot of leagues. You could also roster Meidroth's teammate, Miguel Vargas - 3B/OF, CWS (17% rostered), who appeared in my article two weeks ago on hitters to add based on their plate discipline and contact rates. Vargas is chasing at a super low rate, making 85% contact overall and rarely swinging and missing. He's pulling the ball slightly less this season and has focused less on lifting the ball, which is a good change. He doesn't smoke the ball, but a 90 mph average exit velocity is pretty good, and he's playing every day in Chicago. The production he's put up over the last month matches the process, with him hitting .253/.321/.520 in 20 games in May with five home runs, 10 runs scored, and 13 RBI. The team context is not good, but the playing time and production have been solid. Advertisement Marcelo Mayer - SS, BOS: 21% rostered (RECENT CALL-UP, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) If you spend any time on social media, then you know that everybody is clamoring to find out how the Red Sox are going to call up Mayer and Roman Anthony to "save" their big league club. Unfortunately, with Alex Bregman suffering a "significant" quad strain, the path for Mayer became clear, and he was called up on Saturday for his MLB debut. While that debut didn't go well, we should keep in mind that he spent the entire first half of the day in the locker room at Worcester, not playing in the team's doubleheader and waiting to see if he would be called up. Then he found out he was going to the big leagues, packed up all of his stuff, got into his car, lost his car keys, and drove to Boston in time to play the second game of their doubleheader. He had no time to scout the pitcher or really adjust to being a big leaguer at all, so I would not overreact to his poor start on Saturday. On the season, Mayer is hitting .271/.347/.471 in 43 games at Triple-A with nine home runs and 43 RBI. Just like what we discussed above with Nick Kurtz, there will be struggles for Mayer, and his power is not going to immediately carry over. That being said, he is an MLB-ready hitter, and he's going to be a strong fantasy add in deeper formats. Another stash option would be Jac Caglionne - 1B, KC (13% rostered), who the team promoted to Triple-A recently. He's gone 6-for-21 at the level with three home runs and seven RBI. The Royals have also been playing him in the outfield to expedite his path to the big leagues, and with the team waiving Hunter Renfroe, we may see Caglionne get a shot in the coming weeks. Keep in mind that he has played only 43 games above High-A and had a nearly 13% swinging strike rate in Double-A, so this may be a similar situation to Nick Kurtz as well, where we see good power but some stretches where the swing-and-miss takes over as he adjusts to MLB pitching. Jake Meyers - OF, HOU: 10% rostered (SPEED UPSIDE, STARTING JOB) Two weeks ago, I published an article on hitters who were being more aggressive and swinging at the first pitch more often this year than last year. Myers popped up for me on that leaderboard, and I explained in detail why I'm a fan of his new approach, so you should read that article to check out the analysis; however, I think he's a solid add for steals and something close to a .270 batting average. Fantasy managers in deep leagues could also gamble on recent Rangers call-up Alejandro Osuna - OF, TEX (1% rostered), who is joining the big league team after Joc Pederson fractured his hand. Osuna impressed in spring training but was sent to Double-A to start the season. After hitting .283 with two home runs and seven steals in 31 games, he was promoted to Triple-A, where he has slashed .259/.474/.444 in eight games with two steals and an 8/9 K/BB ratio. Any time you have a young player who is walking more than he's striking out, that's always eye-catching, and Osuna has shown good plate discipline in the minors. He had 18 home runs and 17 steals in 102 games last year, so there is some modest power and speed here, and the lineup around him will be good. The big question is how much you buy his current contact gains because he had an 11.4% swinging strike rate in Double-A last year, and if that hitter shows up, he might be eaten alive in the big leagues. Expect him to take the Joc Pederson role as a strong-side platoon bat, but he can play good defense, so there's a chance Osuna works himself into a bigger role if he produces. Advertisement Nolan Schanuel - 1B, LAA: 10% rostered (BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE, HOT STREAK) Nolan Schanuel has always intrigued me because he's a big dude at 6'2", 220 pounds who makes an elite amount of contact (87% overall) and a good feel for the strike zone. He's just 23 years old, and so I tell myself a story where he continues to get comfortable in the big leagues and works himself into a 15-20 home run batting with a strong batting average, kind of like Nathaniel Lowe. So far this season, he has just three home runs, and the exit velocities are not there to suggest power growth. However, the contact skills remain elite, and he's hitting .333/.442/.431 in 21 games in May with 15 runs scored and five RBI while hitting second every day for an Angels team that has come alive a little bit. Mike Trout is also set to come back in the next week or two, which means Schanuel could continue to be a solid source of batting average and runs into the summer months. Addison Barger - 3B/OF, TOR: 6% rostered (PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, POWER UPSIDE) I was a fan of Addison Barger in the spring when he was all over the spring training leaderboards, and then I read about how the Blue Jays tried to change his swing upon his arrival in the big leagues and how it didn't work. He has now gone back to a more "free" swing that he says stops him from overthinking in the box and just lets him be loose. We obviously love to hear that, and I think Barger has a profile that the Blue Jays need. So many of their hitters are contact-first bats (Bichette, Clement, Springer, Kirk). I think Barger is a nice fit as more of a pull-heavy hitter who tries to do damage when he swings. That may lead to a .240-.250 type of hitter, but I believe in his batted ball quality and think he could push to be the Blue Jays' third baseman for the season. I also think it's time we take what Brett Baty - 3B, NYM (9% rostered) is doing more seriously. In 14 games since being called back up from Triple-A, Baty is hitting .326/.356/.698 with five home runs and 13 RBI. He's also pulling the ball nearly 50% of the time as he starts to get a little more aggressive in the batter's box. That's huge for him because a lot of his early-season struggles were connected to being too passive and getting himself into terrible counts. With Mark Vientos continuing to look lost a third base, there's a real chance for Baty to emerge as the regular third baseman for the Mets. Advertisement Denzel Clarke - OF, ATH: 1% rostered (PROSPECT CALL UP, SPEEDUPSIDE) The Athletics called up Denzel Clarke to the big league roster on Friday morning after their team stated they wanted to prioritize his elite defense in center field. From a fantasy perspective, Denzel Clarke can run. He had 36 steals last year and was off to a strong start in Triple-A, hitting .286/.436/419 with seven steals in 133 plate appearances. As you can tell from that slash line, there was basically no power as he went to a more ground ball-heavy approach this year has helped curb his swing and miss and lower his strikeout rate. There is some pop in his bat, but this new approach would make him an OK source if batting average with some speed, which kind of keeps him to deep leagues only for now. The Nationals also called up Robert Hassell III - OF, WAS (6% rostered) after having to place both Jacob Young and Dylan Crews on the IL. The former top prospect, who is one of the players who came over in the Juan Soto trade years ago, was hitting .288 with four home runs, nine steals, and a .742 OPS in Triple-A this season. He had made clear gains in his exit velocity and shown a little bit more pop than in years past. I don't expect him to hit for much power at the big league level, but, like Clarke, he could also hit for a solid average with speed. I'd rather have Clarke because the lineup and ballpark are better, and I think he'll have a longer leash. Waiver Wire Pitchers Gavin Williams - SP, CLE: 40% rostered Gavin Williams is back! The right-hander started mixing in his cutter and a new sinker over his last three starts, and the results have taken off. I recorded a video on him here, so I encourage you to watch that for more detail. Advertisement Hayden Birdsong - SP, SF: 34% rostered Birdsong moved into the Giants' rotation with Jordan Hicks moving to the bullpen. The right-hander had a great spring training and showed off improved command that had him on the verge of winning a starting spot in the rotation. However, he was sent down to the minors and then returned to pitch out of the bullpen, where he produced a solid 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings. He did have a 1.3 WHIP over that stretch, which is not ideal, so command may still be something we need to keep an eye on here, even if he didn't have any issues with it in his first start. Even if I'm not 100% sold on Birdsong, he has a four-pitch mix and plenty of swing-and-miss in the arsenal, so he's worth a gamble if he can carry over these command gains. I do still prefer his teammate Landen Roupp - SP, SF (20% rostered), who was struggling with efficiency in his first outings, but has settled down a bit lately. He has more swing and miss upside, in my eyes, and I'm always a sucker for that. Eury Perez - SP, MIA: 32% rostered Eury Perez was up to 61 pitches in his last rehab start at Triple-A on Thursday. He only threw 37 of those pitches for strikes, but he struck out seven and showed off a new sinker that should help him as a second fastball variation and a pitch to attack righties with inside. I would expect Perez to likely make one or two more rehab starts, and his chances of wins are not going to be great in Miami, but there are few pitchers with his upside on the waiver wire. Richard Fitts - SP, BOS (3% rostered) also made his first rehab start after being on the IL with a pectoral injury. With Tanner Houck on the IL, I expect Fitts to come back and take Hunter Dobbins' place in the rotation. He may only need to make one more rehab start, so if you have the space to stash a pitcher, now could be the time. Tommy Kahnle - RP, DET: 32% rostered I guess people don't want to add Kahnle because he doesn't throw hard, and the Tigers mix and match their late-inning relievers, but Kahnle has looked good so far, and Detroit has no problem running out a closer who doesn't have elite strikeout upside or a big fastball. Kahnle has five saves and a 0.61 ERA in 14 appearances so far this year, so I'm scooping if he's available. However, just note that the Tigers like to use Kahnle in high-leverage situations, which will also mean save opportunities for Will Vest - RP, DET (40% rostered), who is worth an add if you need saves as well. I know Vest blew an opportunity two weeks ago, which made him one of the most dropped players in Yahoo formats, but he has allowed just four runs on 10 hits in 17 innings this season. He'll still be back in high-leverage innings and will get some save chances. Bubba Chandler - SP, PIT: 32% rostered It seems like it's only a matter of time before Bubba Chandler is up in the Pirates rotation. He has dominated the level this year, and now that the super two deadline has passed, the Pirates can call him up and still retain an extra year of control over him. This is also right around the time they called up Paul Skenes last year, and they saw that it was enough time for him to win and our rookie of the year, and the Pirates another draft pick. I know waiting is hard, but if you have the bench space for a stash, I think Chandler is the one. Advertisement Shelby Miller - RP, ARI: 29% rostered Justin Martinez is back and throwing 100 mph, but he also gave up two runs on Saturday, so I think it's premature to assume that Martinez will simply be given the closer's role. There's a good chance they use Miller to help lessen some of Martinez's workload after coming back, by using him in the eighth inning or mixing in Miller for some save opportunities as well. If somebody in your league has dropped Miller, I'd put in a small bid just until we see how this situation plays out. Ryan Weathers - SP, MIA: 26% rostered Weathers has come back and had to face the Cubs twice, but looked great against them both times. His spring training velocity has held, and he's struck out nine while walking just one in 10 innings, which is command that we love to see. He has gone only five innings in each start, and things don't get much easier for him against San Diego this week, but Weathers should be up around 90 pitches in that start, and he has looked really strong so far through two starts. I like him as an upside play. Cade Horton - SP, CHC: 21% rostered It's been a fine start to Horton's MLB career with seven runs allowed on 17 hits in his first 14.1 innings with 10 strikeouts and three walks. In his last two starts, I have been heartened to see him lean into his changeup and curveball more and even throw a few sinkers. That's a true five-pitch mix that he'll continue to gain confidence in the more he pitches to big league hitters. The upcoming schedule is also enticing as he gets his feet wet at this level, so Horton remains a solid add for now, even if we don't know how long he'll remain in the rotation. Lucas Giolito - SP, BOS: 16% rostered Giolito had a great start on Saturday against the Orioles as he continues to alternate between strong starts and bad starts. Remember that he missed all of last season following elbow surgery, so that inconsistency shouldn't be a surprise. What we should be focusing on is the fact that his velocity is up around 94 mph on the four-seam fastball and, after his bad start in the rain, he changed the grip on his slider and has started to gain more confidence in the pitch. That's making him a three-pitch guy with a curve that he can mix in as well. I still think Giolito is not getting nearly enough respect. Advertisement Daniel Palencia - RP, CHC: 9% rostered The Cubs placed Porter Hodge on the IL with an oblique injury and then immediately gave their first two save opportunities to Palencia. He blew one of them and converted the other. The right-hander has limited experience and some previous control concerns, but he throws hard and has a 2.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 16/7 K/BB ratio on the season. However, before we spend big money on him in FAAB, we also have to acknowledge that Ryan Pressly has had decent numbers apart from his one blow-up outing, and we're seeing a resurgence for Drew Pomeranz - RP, CHC (7% rostered), who should also work into the mix against left-handed batters. You can pick up either of those guys, but just keep the bids modest. Slade Cecconi - SP, CLE (3% rostered) Cecconi has had two really good starts since he joined the rotation with Ben Lively out for the season with an elbow injury. I covered Cecconi's increased velocity and new pitch mix in my starting pitcher column for this week, so I'd encourage you to check that out for my thoughts. STREAMING STARTER PITCHERS MUST BE 40% ROSTERED ON YAHOO OR UNDER (ranked in loose order)
New York Times
22-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups featuring Jake Burger, Will Warren and more
We're deep enough into the fantasy baseball season that most of us are looking at rosters only partially resembling the team we originally drafted. Since roster churn is the name of the game, I'm running it back all season with your favorite speculator piece implementing my patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week's waiver wire headliners … today. Advertisement Going position by position, I mine my favorite player stat combinations regarding control, batted ball quality and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them together to identify some cheap gems to grab before the squares figure it out next week. At the bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, two-start pitchers and speculative adds. Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. When it comes to hitting, opportunity may be king, but we still need production, which comes from underlying skills. Scores of studies have proven the impact of exit velocity and its direct relationship with slugging percentage, so raw power is always a great place to start. The list below utilizes contact frequency and quality, paired with advanced statistics to identify underlying hitting skills. Hitters in this table have +80% contact, +40% hard-hit, a +.340 expected weighted on-base average and at least 35 plate appearances in the past 21 days. One of fantasy managers' most common errors is complacency, usually on better teams. Many of us have been there — a roster's performing well, full of noteworthy names, but we might not notice someone in the active lineup losing playing time. Now, that doesn't mean it's necessarily time to cut these guys, but losing at-bats is never a good thing. It gave me the idea to start tracking notable players who are losing opportunities. *** = Prioritize for speed ^^^ = Riser Players from previous articles who are no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) and should be rostered first As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn't be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are suppressing runs by keeping runners off base and striking out batters. Though simply showing up on this list so early may be noise, there's an argument that this combination of skills signals an immediate call to action. Advertisement Pitchers in this table have a ≤3.50 skills independent ERA, ≤1.20 WHIP, +18.0% K-BB rate, with a minimum of 10 IP in the past 30 days. ^^^ = Riser Players from previous articles who are no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) and should be rostered first (Top photo of Will Warren: Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
Yahoo
18-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Starting pitchers galore, can we believe in Hyeseong Kim?
Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, where I review my favorite waiver wire adds and drops for each week of the MLB season. The premise is pretty straightforward. I'll try to give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When I list a player, I'll list the category where I think he'll be helpful or the quick reason he's listed. I hope that it will help you determine if the player is a fit for what your team needs or not. Advertisement For a player to qualify to be on this list, he needs to be UNDER 40% rostered in Yahoo! formats. I understand you may say, 'These players aren't available in my league,' and I can't help you there. These players are available in over 60% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they're available in many places and that can hopefully satisfy readers in all league types. MLB: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians 2025 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani & Bobby Witt Jr. lead Top 300 rest of season ranks Arizona's Jordan Lawlar and Toronto's Addison Barger make their rankings debuts. Waiver Wire Hitters Victor Scott II - OF, STL, 39% rostered (EVERY DAY ROLE, SPEED UPSIDE) Advertisement Situations like Scott's confuse me. Everybody was rushing to add him last year, and it didn't pan out. Now, Scott is hitting .264 with 13 steals on the season, and people don't seem to want to pick him up. Two weeks ago, I posted an article about hitters who could be worth adding/trading for based on their contact rates and swing rates. Scott popped in that article. There's more detail in the article, but I like a lot of what he's doing in terms of his swing decisions. I need him to focus more on line drives and hard groundballs, and I think we could see a strong stretch of production in the coming weeks. Chandler Simpson - OF, TB (27% rostered) is also still available in a lot of leagues. I don't get it. He's hitting .301 with nine steals and 15 runs in 25 games? What did we expect him to be? He's not going to hit for power, but he hits at the top of the order against right-handed pitching and will run whenever he gets on. Rhys Hoskins - 1B, MIL: 37% rostered (POWER UPSIDE, FINALLY HEALTHY) This is my third week with Hoskins in this column, but I'm going to keep him here until people buy in because he's hitting .285/.389/.445 with five home runs and 24 RBI in 43 games. I bought in on Rhys Hoskins during spring training because he talked about being fully healthy after ACL surgery in 2023. He also changed his stance to quiet his head and improve his contact. The results didn't come right at the start of the season, but we're starting to see them now. We know he's not going to be a major batting average asset, but he likely won't be a drain either. I like his ballpark, and I like his lineup, so I have no problem adding Hoskins anywhere he's available right now. Max Muncy - 3B, LAD (34% rostered) is another veteran who made a tweak and has started to heat up of late. Except, Muncy's tweak was to start wearing prescription glasses starting on May 5th. Since then, Muncy is hitting .275/.375/.475 with two home runs and 11 RBI in 11 games. A lot of that did come in an offensive series against the Athletics, but Muncy also has eight strikeouts to seven walks over that span, so it's pretty clear that he's seeing the ball better. Brandon Lowe - 2B, TB: 36% rostered (POWER UPSIDE, HOT STREAK) Advertisement Brandon Lowe is another veteran who is starting to settle into himself a bit. Over his last 12 games, he's hitting just .256 with three home runs, eight runs scored, nine RBI, and a 14% barrel rate. We know the batting average will fluctuate up and down with Lowe, but we also know he's going to hit second in the order against right-handers and could easily carry a few balls out of that minor league ballpark when the weather starts to heat up. Jake Cronenworth - 1B/2B, SD (33% rostered) came off the IL on May 9th and has gone 8-for-27 with one home run, five RBI, and five runs scored in eight games. He's a bit boring for fantasy, but that doesn't mean he's bad. He's going to play every day in a solid Padres lineup and has always been about a .240 hitter with 15+ home run power who will drive in some runs hitting behind Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Manny Machado. Hyeseong Kim - 2B/SS, LAD: 34% rostered (PLAYING TIME UPSIDE, STEALS UPSIDE) Hyeseong Kim is such a tough decision this weekend in fantasy. He's gone 14-for-31 (.452) since being called up with nine runs scored, one home run, and three steals. However, his average exit velocity is just 87.1 mph, and has a 73% contact rate overall, which jives with what he did in the minors, hitting .252 in 131 plate appearances at Triple-A with a 12% swinging strike rate. His overall contact rate of 75% at Triple-A is fine, but suggests there will be some swing and miss at the big league level, and even though he had a few huge home runs that we saw on Twitter, his average exit velocity at Triple-A was 87.3 mph. The other question is where he plays when Tommy Edman and Teoscar Hernandez both come back, which is likely to be next week. James Outman is almost assuredly getting sent down, but if the Dodgers want to keep Kim on the active roster, they'll need to DFA one of Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, or Michael Conforto. The Dodgers have historically been hesitant to move on from those long-tenured veterans, so it will be an interesting decision to see. If Kim does stay up, he'd be the regular second baseman and sit against all lefties, which would still give him solid value for speed. Colt Keith - 1B/2B, DET: 19% rostered (HOT STREAK, POST HYPE PROSPECT) Advertisement It was a slow start to the season for Keith, but he has come alive of late. Since May 1st, he's hitting .317/.391/.585 with three home runs, 12 runs scored, and seven RBI. While we do have to acknowledge that some of that is connected to Coors Field, Keith also has a 9.4% barrel rate on the season and is chasing outside of the zone way less this year. His overall contact profile hasn't changed a lot, but he's being more selective, which is working for him. He's not a prototypical 1B from a power perspective, but he had an elite hit tool as a prospect and hits near the top of a decent Tigers lineup. There's a chance that he's a 20 HR bat, so if he can hit .260 that's great production at 2B and solid production at CI. With Colorado heading back home this week, you could take a flyer on Ryan McMahon - 3B, COL (33% rostered), who is hitting .333/..443/.667 in May with four home runs, 13 runs scored, and seven RBI. I covered McMahon two weeks ago in my article on hitters swinging at the first pitch more often, and was confused why he was struggling so much. I mentioned that his bat speed is almost two mph faster than last year, and his average exit velocity has jumped to 94.1 mph, and I believed that, "at some point, you have to think the hits will start to fall." Maybe now they have. Evan Carter - OF, TEX: 12% rostered (RETURN FROM MINORS, POST HYPE PROSPECT) I know Evan Carter hasn't been good since being called up, but he's back in Texas and playing regularly against right-handed pitching, so he remains a potential add in deeper formats. After a slow start to his Triple-A season, he was hitting .288 with three HRs and four steals in his final 12 games. Since coming up, he's gone 6-for-33 (.182) with one home run, but he does have three steals, so he's going to run when he gets on. He's going to sit versus lefties and the back injury will always be a black cloud hanging over him, but he's a talented player and was my off-season pick to be a second-year breakout hitter, so I believe he's worth a flier in most league types. In deep formats, you might decide to pivot to an option like Trevor Larnach - OF, MIN (13% rostered), who's hitting .280 over his last 27 games with seven home runs, 18 runs scored, and 19 RBI. He's going to sit against all left-handed pitchers, but that platoon role has allowed him to thrive and put up really solid numbers, so he's especially interesting in daily moves leagues. Luisangel Acuna - 2B/SS, NYM: 11% rostered (PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, SPEED UPSIDE) Advertisement Last week, I mentioned that Jesse Winker's injury was likely to open up playing time for Acuña, and the young middle infielder started four of the six games heading into Sunday. Mark Vientos started all six, and Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil both started three. With Winker out six weeks, the Mets could move Vientos to DH sometimes and let Acuña play 3B, or let veterans like Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo DH at times and play Acuña at 2B. Brett Baty being up complicates this a bit, but Acuña brings plus defense and a speed and batting average upside that Baty doesn't have. I guess we should address the Brett Baty - 3B, NYM (8% rostered) call-up. At this point, you've probably picked up and dropped Baty three or four times in your fantasy league over the years. However, he has come back up from AAA and hit three home runs in the last two games and started each of the last three games at 3B for the Mets, so we can't just ignore that. All of what I said above means that Baty could also get a chance at regular playing time again in New York, and so, in deeper format, that might be worth a gamble if you're struggling at third base. I just can't bid a lot of money here because it could implode at any minute. Gavin Sheets - 1B/OF, SD: 15% rostered (EVERY DAY PLAYER, RBI UPSIDE) Sheets' recent numbers are certainly skewed by the trip to Coors Field last week; however, he is hitting .290/.343/.481 on the season with six home runs, so he has been productive for the Padres this year. He starts against all right-handed pitching and is hitting in the middle of a lineup that features a lot of strong bats, which means he has a good chance for RBI upside. His multi-position eligibility also makes him a bit more valuable, and he's an add I like in daily moves leagues. Another deeper league multi-position add could be Kody Clemens - 1B/2B/3B, MIN (1% rostered). He had been playing some first base when Ty France was banged up, and now he's starting regularly at second base with Brooks Lee shifting to shortstop while Carlos Correa is on the concussion IL. Clemens will likely sit against left-handed pitching, which makes him a tougher add for this week, but he has three home runs, two doubles, and a 17% barrel rate in 45 plate appearances this season, so I like what he's doing. His contact rates are strong, and he's aggressive in the strike zone, so he could be a decent short-term add. Jake Meyers - OF, HOU: 9% rostered (SPEED UPSIDE, STARTING JOB) Advertisement Last week, I published an article on hitters who were being more aggressive and swinging at the first pitch more often this year than last year. Myers popped up for me on that leaderboard, and I explained in detail why I'm a fan of his new approach, so you should read that article to check out the analysis; however, I think he's a solid add for steals and something close to a .270 batting average. Fantasy managers in deep leagues could also gamble on Angels rookie Matthew Lugo - OF, LAA (1% rostered), who has gone 8-for-21 (.381) in eight games since being called up with three home runs and six RBI. Lugo is a former second-round pick of the Red Sox who came to the Angels last year at the trade deadline. He has never been a huge power hitter, but he did have 17 home runs and 16 steals in 79 minor league games last year, so there is some 20/20 upside here if he hits his ceiling. He doesn't have elite high-end exit velocity, but he makes hard contact regularly and has a pull-heavy approach, which helps him get to that power. However, he did have a 14.5% swinging strike rate in Triple-A this year and just a 73% contact rate, so don't expect the batting average to remain all that high. Trey Sweeney - SS, DET: 10% rostered (EVERY DAY JOB, POTENTIAL BREAKOUT) A few weeks ago, I published an article on hitters who were making elite swing decisions and contact and could be in for hot streaks. Sweeney just barely qualified for the leaderboard, but I opted to leave him out of the article because I had doubts about him, and I had covered a lot of hitters already. That was a mistake. I should have trusted my thought process for the article and at least put Sweeney in the article to explain why he was there, and what my doubts were. It appears that my doubts may have been partially unfounded because Sweeney has been on a bit of a hot streak that began before he even went to Coors Field. I don't know how long this hot streak will last, but he's playing every day in Detroit and making good swing decisions, so that makes him worth an add in deeper formats. Drake Baldwin - C, ATL: 9% rostered (PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, TOP TIER PROSPECT) Advertisement Baldwin is in a timeshare with Sean Murphy in Atlanta, but it seems like Baldwin has become the preferred option against right-handed pitching since he hits left-handed. On the season, Baldwin is hitting .360/.407.573 in 81 plate appearances with four home runs, 13 strikeouts, and eight walks. The production has been there, and if he's now going to start 60-70% of the games, that makes him worth adding in all two-catcher formats. I would rather place bids on Baldwin than I would on either of the other two catchers who came up this week: Dalton Rushing - C/OF, LAD (17% rostered) and Moises Ballesteros - C, CHC (7% rostered). I understand that Rushing is a good prospect and looked strong in his first two games, but Dave Roberts has already said that Rushing won't play the outfield with the Dodgers and will catch two games a week. With Shohei Ohtani locked in as the DH, you can maybe hope Rushing gets one start a week at 1B when the team rests Freddie Freeman, but that's three starts per week for Rushing. It's just hard to bid on him if that's all we're going to get. Ballesteros is in a similar spot. Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya are playing well, and both have no minor league options remaining. When Ian Happ comes back, likely next week, all of Happ, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong need to play so the DH spot will be locked up. I just don't see any room for Ballesteros to remain with the Cubs for now. Marcelo Mayer - SS, BOS: 8% rostered (MINOR LEAGUE STASH, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) If you spend any time on social media, then you know that everybody is clamoring to find out how the Red Sox are going to call up Mayer and Roman Anthony. Well, we got a glimpse at one possibility on Friday when videos surfaced of Kristian Campbell doing pre-game work at first base. Campbell moved all around the field in the minors and has graded out below average at second base (a new position for him), so it makes sense for Boston to see how he can handle 1B. That would also open up a middle infield spot for Mayer, who is hitting .274/.351/.486 in 37 games at Triple-A with eight home runs. He's ready, and he'll be an impactful bat early on but more for batting average than anything. Another stash option would be Jerar Encarnacion - OF, SF (1% rostered), who is on a rehab assignment after having wrist surgery back at the end of spring training. We know the immense power he possesses, and the Giants have said they're going to play him at 1B primarily when he comes back, so that will add multi-position eligibility to his case for your roster. Addison Barger - 3B/OF, TOR: 5% rostered (PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, POWER UPSIDE) Advertisement I was a fan of Addison Barger in the spring when he was all over the spring training leaderboards, and then I read about how the Blue Jays tried to change his swing upon his arrival in the big leagues and how it didn't work. He has now gone back to a more "free" swing that he says stops him from overthinking in the box and just lets him be loose. We obviously love to hear that, and I think Barger has a profile that the Blue Jays need. So many of their hitters are contact-first bats (Bichette, Clement, Springer, Kirk). I think Barger is a nice fit as more of a pull-heavy hitter who tries to do damage when he swings. That may lead to a .240-.250 type of hitter, but I believe in his batted ball quality and think he could push to be the Blue Jays' third baseman for the season. Miguel Vargas - 3B/OF, CWS (5% rostered) appeared in my article two weeks ago on hitters to add based on their plate discipline and contact rates. Vargas is chasing at a super low rate, making 83% contact overall and rarely swinging and missing. He's pulling the ball slightly less this season and has focused less on lifting the ball, which is a good change. He doesn't smoke the ball, but a 90.3 mph average exit velocity is pretty good, and he's playing every day in Chicago. He's limited to deeper leagues right now, but I still think he's worth an add there because the production he's put up over the last month matches the process. Miguel Andujar - 3B/OF, ATH: 4% rostered (EVERY DAY JOB, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) This week, I posted an article looking at Pitcher List's Process+ stat to see which hitters have the best Contact Value and Decision Value on their swings so far this year. Andujar qualified for that list despite not having the required number of pitches faced. He has become the starting third baseman for the Athletics and has hit 11-for-38 (.289) over the last month with eight RBI and one home run. He's not going to produce huge power numbers, but that park is going to be great for offense in the summer, and Andujar will sport a good batting average while hitting in the middle of the order. In deeper formats, you also scoop up his teammate, Luis Urias - 2B/3B, ATH (4% rostered), who is now the regular second baseman. With Zack Gelof suffering a rub injury on his rehab assignment, Urias may have a few weeks remaining as an everyday player. Will Benson - OF, CIN: 1% rostered (RECENT CALL-UP, POWER UPSIDE) Advertisement Benson was recalled late last week and has had a great first week back in the big leagues, going 8-for-22 with three home runs, eight RBI, and one steal. We've seen this before from him. He has tremendous power/speed potential, but also a really frustrating approach at the plate. Even in Triple-A this season, he was striking out 29% of the time with a 70% contact rate and 13% swinging strike rate. Perhaps you'll get a shot stretch from Benson; it might be worth the gamble, but it doesn't appear as if he's changed his approach at all. Another new starter on his team is Santiago Espinal - 2B/3B/OF - CIN: 3% rostered, who has become the regular third baseman in Cincinnati with Noelvi Marte on the IL. Espinal is hitting .273/.328/.322 on the season with almost an identical walk and strikeout rate. He makes a lot of contact and rarely swings and misses, but he also doesn't bring a ton of speed or power to the table. He would be an add for batting average and the hope of counting stats when the Reds are playing at home. Waiver Wire Pitchers Yu Darvish - SP, SD: 37% rostered Darvish made his first rehab start at Triple-A on Wednesday and threw 57 pitches over four innings while striking out four and walking one. He sat 94.5 mph on his fastball, and his slider and cutter both looked good. Last year, Darvish had a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 16 starts. If you take out the two starts we know he was pitching hurt, then he allowed 21 earned runs in 76 innings, which is a 2.47 ERA with 71 strikeouts. I think he'll still be a mid-3.00 ERA guy, so I'll be grabbing some shares soon. He may still be three weeks away from his season debut with the Padres. Tommy Kahnle - RP, DET: 32% rostered I guess people don't want to add Kahnle because he doesn't throw hard, and the Tigers mix and match their late-inning relievers, but Kahnle has looked good so far, and Detroit has no problem running out a closer who doesn't have elite strikeout upside or a big fastball. Kahnle has five saves and a 0.61 ERA in 14 appearances so far this year, so I'm scooping if he's available. However, just note that the Tigers like to use Kahnle in high-leverage situations, which will also mean save opportunities for Will Vest - RP, DET (29% rostered), who is worth an add if you need saves as well. I know Vest blew an opportunity two weeks ago, which made him one of the most dropped players in Yahoo formats, but he has allowed just four runs on 10 hits in 17 innings this season. He'll still be back in high-leverage innings and will get some save chances. Advertisement Bubba Chandler - SP, PIT: 32% rostered It seems like it's only a matter of time before Bubba Chandler is up in the Pirates rotation. Even though his command was not great in his last start in AAA, he has dominated the level this year, and now that the super two deadline has passed, the Pirates can call him up and still retain an extra year of control over him. This is also right around the time they called up Paul Skenes last year, and they saw that it was enough time for him to win and our rookie of the year, and the Pirates another draft pick. Skenes made his MLB debut on May 11 last year, and so my guess is that Chandler is up for the Pirates' next homestand, which begins on May 19. I would try and stash him now before that News becomes official. Cade Horton - SP, CHC: 32% rostered Will they keep him in the big league rotation even after Imanaga is back? There are a lot of questions here, but he's a top-50 overall prospect in baseball and is worth a stash, especially since he gets the Marlins next. If you want a deeper dive into Horton, I covered him in my Starting Pitcher News column this week. Shelby Miller - RP, ARI: 27% rostered I spoke to Shelby Miller a couple of weeks ago before the Mets game and wrote up my thoughts on the Arizona bullpen situation here. I prioritized Miller on the waiver wire, and so far, that has worked out. We know that Justin Martinez is back and throwing bullpens and feels good, but there's no guarantee that he remains healthy or that the Diamondbacks immediately put him back as the everyday closer. There's a good chance they use Miller to help lessen some of Martinez's workload after coming back, so I wouldn't go ahead of drop Miller just yet, thinking that he's absolutely going to lose all the save chances going forward. Advertisement Zebby Matthews - SP, MIN: 21% rostered Zebby Matthews is finally getting a chance to become a full-time starter in the Twins' rotation. He has been electric at Triple-A with a 1.93 ERA and 38:9 K:BB ratio over seven starts and 32 innings. I wrote him up in the pre-season as one of my choices for an undrafted starting pitcher who could finish the season as a top 25 arm, so I'd encourage you to check that out to see my full thoughts on him. Logan Henderson - SP, MIL: 21% rostered Henderon is in the Brewers' rotation (for now) after Jose Quintana went on the IL. He has a solid 2.45 ERA and 16:2 K:BB ratio in his two starts this season. He uses his four-seam and changeup 87% of the time, but they both are above-average pitches. The four-seam averages just 93 mph and has poor extension, but he has really good iVB on it and, given his release height, it's a really flat fastball. He does a good job of keeping it up in the strike zone, so it misses more bats than your average four-seamer and pairs well with the changeup he keeps low in the strike zone. He mixes in a cutter to lefties and a slider to righties, but he's really just a two-pitch pitcher and that makes me a little bit nervous as teams start to see him more. Ryan Weathers - SP, MIA: 19% rostered Weathers was back on Wednesday and looked pretty good in his first start against the Cubs. The left-hander had a 1.69 ERA with 13 strikeouts in 10.2 innings at Triple-A over his rehab appearances, and the spring training velocity gains held, which is nice to see. He gets the Cubs yet again this week, which is still a tough matchup to trust, but I really like Weathers for the long-term this season. Dennis Santana - RP, PIT: 16% rostered In the two games since Pittsburgh fired its manager, David Bednar has operated as the high-leverage reliever, which has led to two ninth-inning stints for Santana. He picked up the save in one, but also allowed two runs in one inning. Bednar remains the reliever to roster here because he has been great since coming back from the minors and will pitch more regularly; however, Santana should get the save chances, if Pittsburgh can muster many. Advertisement Noah Cameron - SP, KC: 13% rostered Noah Cameron is yet another young pitcher getting a shot in the rotation with both Cole Ragans (groin) and Seth Lugo (finger) landing on the IL. Now, neither of those guys should be out too long, so I don't think this is a situation where Cameron pitches his way into a permanent spot in the rotation, but he might get 2-3 turns through the rotation, and that could be worth something. He's a soft-tossing lefty who averages 91.3 mph on his fastball, but has a good slider and changeup. He'll also mix in a cutter to righties, which helps to take the pressure off of his four-seam fastball. I don't love the profile, and don't think there's a ton of strikeout upside here, but he mixes and matches speeds well and has good command, so I can see him producing some solid performances. Hayden Birdsong - SP, SF: 11% rostered Birdsong is moving into the Giants' rotation with Jordan Hicks moving to the bullpen. Birdsong had a great spring training and showed off improved command that had him on the verge of winning a starting spot in the rotation. However, he was sent down to the minors and then returned to pitch out of the bullpen, where he produced a solid 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings. He did have a 1.3 WHIP over that stretch, which is not ideal, so command may still be something we need to keep an eye on here. That said, he has a four-pitch mix and plenty of swing-and-miss in the arsenal, so he's worth a gamble if he can carry over these command gains. Managers in deeper leagues could also look to add Slade Cecconi - SP, CLE (1% rostered), who will be in the rotation with Ben Lively sidelined. He had an up-and-down season debut on Saturday, but he showed off added velocity, thanks to mechanical tweaks to his lower body, and has some subtle changes to his pitch mix, where he's relying on his four-seam fastball less often. Cecconi had allowed just one run in five innings in his start, but he tired in the sixth and allowed a run, and then the inherited runner he left on base also came around to score. He should be pushed up to about 85 pitches in his next start, but there may be something here in deeper formats. Hunter Dobbins - SP, BOS: 8% rostered With Tanner Houck ending up on the IL, Hunter Dobbins is likely to remain in the Red Sox rotation for a few extra weeks. I've been intrigued by his performance so far this season and wrote about him in detail in my starting pitcher article this week, so check that out for more details on Dobbins' pitch mix and my expectations for him. STREAMING STARTER PITCHERS MUST BE 40% ROSTERED ON YAHOO OR UNDER (ranked in loose order)
New York Times
15-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups featuring Colt Keith, Logan Henderson and more
We're deep enough into the fantasy baseball season that most of us are looking at rosters only partially resembling the team we originally drafted. Since roster churn is the name of the game, I'm running it back all season with your favorite speculator piece implementing my patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week's waiver wire headliners … today. Advertisement Going position by position, I mine my favorite player stat combinations regarding control, batted ball quality and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them together to identify some cheap gems to grab before the squares figure it out next week. At the bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, two-start pitchers and speculative adds. Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. When it comes to hitting, opportunity may be king, but we still need production, which comes from underlying skills. Scores of studies have proven the impact of exit velocity and its direct relationship with slugging percentage, so raw power is always a great place to start. The list below utilizes contact frequency and quality, paired with advanced statistics to identify underlying hitting skills. At only 22 years old, Detroit infielder Colt Keith showed plenty of promise last year in his rookie season. However, a brutal start to 2025 — 85 PA, .171 BA, 8 R, 3 RBI, 0 HR, 0 SB, 63 wRC+ — started to cost him playing time, spawning drops across the fantasy universe. Like they say, sometimes you have to break the seal to find the flow. Since connecting for his first home run on April 30, Keith's mashed the baseball — 43 PA, .316 BA, 13 R, 9 RBI, 4 HR, 0 SB, 17% Barrel, .489 xwOBA, 196 wRC+ — earning an every-day spot in the top-third of a very good Tigers lineup. Currently just 19% rostered on Yahoo, Keith's on a short list of players who could work their way into a universal role before the break. Analyzing MLB is all about risk tolerance across different sample sizes. Every year, one of my favorite adds is the universally drafted player who face-plants so badly that the fantasy world becomes convinced he's forgotten how to hit. Enter Joc Pederson, the Rangers' new veteran DH. Brought in as a power supply, Pederson couldn't have gotten off to a worse start, going 3-for-63 to start 2025 (.052 BA, .210 OPS). Woof! One glance at our table above shows the rumblings of an upcoming breakout and potential return to peak power. Over the past three weeks, Pederson has massively cut down the whiffs (80.5% Contact) and made frequent quality contact (52.6% Hard Hit) to produce an elite expected weighted on-base average (.413). Finally hitting his first home run earlier this week, Joc should have the worst behind him as a cheap add for power-starved fantasy squads. Advertisement The preseason hype train for Cubs rookie 3B Matt Shaw exploded out of the station as soon as Chicago announced the 23-year-old would break camp with the club. Well, MLB is extremely difficult and Cubs brass quickly decided Shaw needed more seasoning after a pretty horrid 19-game sample to start the season — 68 PA, .172 BA, 11 R, 3 RBI, 1 HR, 0 SB, 63 wRC+. Over the next month, Shaw has done nothing but produce for Triple-A Iowa — 89 PA, .270 BA, 16 R, 9 RBI, 2 HR, 5 SB, 125 wRC+. With journeyman Jon Berti getting starts at third base for a struggling lineup, it shouldn't be long until Shaw's number gets called again. Act now if your roster can afford a brief stash. One of fantasy managers' most common errors is complacency, usually on better teams. Many of us have been there — a roster's performing well, full of noteworthy names, but we might not notice someone in the active lineup losing playing time. Now, that doesn't mean it's necessarily time to cut these guys, but losing at-bats is never a good thing. It gave me the idea to start tracking notable players who are losing opportunities. *** = Prioritize for speed ^^^ = Riser Players from previous articles who are no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) and should be rostered first As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn't be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are suppressing runs by keeping runners off base and striking out batters. Though simply showing up on this list so early may be noise, there's an argument that this combination of skills signals an immediate call to action. Advertisement Major League debuts as impressive as Milwaukee's rookie righty Logan Henderson are few and far between, and the fact he's rostered in just one-third of all fantasy leagues is borderline criminal. Henderson followed up a dominant MiLB career — 203.2 IP, 3.00 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 26.9% K-BB — by exploding on the scene in two phenomenal starts thus far. The 23-year-old is quickly establishing himself as a strike-throwing machine (33.5% Ball), using a classic fastball-changeup combination to strike out an extraordinary 40% of batters faced thus far. While questions surrounding role presented cause for concern a few days ago, Jose Quintana's recent visit to the IL should clear the runway for a rest-of-season takeoff. Henderson's a priority add across all formats of any size. Despite already headlining a previous piece, Gunnar Hoglund occupying half of our underlying skills list is worthy of reiteration. Oakland's top pitching prospect has performed very well from a skills perspective, combining a good four-seamer with lots of whiff-inducing spin and two devastating secondaries (minimum 37% Whiff). Sure, he just surrendered four earned runs, but it was against the vaunted Dodgers — a start sharp managers would, could and should have avoided anyway. With starting pitching in short supply, expect Hoglund's roster percentage to climb weekly until it's universal. ^^^ = Riser Players from previous articles who are no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) and should be rostered first (Top photo of Colt Keith: Luiza Moraes / Getty Images)
New York Times
12-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Fade Jacob Wilson, target Dylan Cease
Welcome to The Athletic's weekly fantasy baseball cheat sheet. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years, The Athletic has developed a weekly reference to help fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. This week's iteration suggests adding Royce Lewis and Brenton Doyle, fading Jacob Wilson and trading for slow-starting Gunnar Henderson. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections based on a 12-team, mixed league format. For first-time readers, we compare year-to-date value (expressed as dollars, where $0 would represent a replacement-level player) against their projected rest-of-season value. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know. Advertisement The Twins' Royce Lewis, recently off the injured list, provides an instructive example. While the projections expect a massive surge in value, that change is in part because Lewis has been dreadful to this point, so keep this in context. Lewis has a .111 batting average in 19 plate appearances, but the former first-round draft pick did have a solid 2023 with a .309 average and .921 OPS in 239 plate appearances before regressing in 2024. While Lewis could be a cheap source of power (projecting somewhere in the mid-to-high teens for HRs in 2025), his expected average this year is .209. All of this to point out that while THE BAT X projects his value will rise, it's only expected to reach $5.80. This makes him a speculative addition, but given no major projection system sees him topping 95 games this season, he's probably not a plug-and-play, everyday solution. Of the players on this list, Rockies OF Brenton Doyle, who has been in a slump lately, has the highest rest-of-season value at $19.90. On the pitching side, the Diamondbacks' Eduardo Rodriguez has gone 1-3 with a 6.86 ERA, but his expected ERA is 4.52 — still nothing to write home about, but more in line with his previous seasons. His cutter, sinker, and slider are performing much better than last year, while his changeup and four-seamer are suffering. He may never be above average, but THE BAT X projects his value will improve and could be a worth a spot start if there's a favorable matchup. Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, whose current value is one of only two players with a positive value, has the highest rest-of-season grade. He has a 2.78 ERA with a respectable 23.4 strikeout percentage and is projected to improve. He's someone to target right away. Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. A's shortstop Jacob Wilson has a year-to-date value of $23.40 but a projected rest-of-season value of -$1.60. He's hitting .348, and his xBA is .317 (in the 97th percentile). It's not time to drop him yet, but he finished last year with a .250 average in 103 plate appearances as a rookie. Watch closely for regression. The following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections, according to THE BAT X projection system. These suggestions are based on differentials. You're not going to want to fade the Yankees' current ace, Max Fried, or the Astros' Hunter Brown, who have rest-of-season values above $20, but you could look to shop the Rangers' Tyler Mahle, Kodai Senga of the Mets or the Yanks' Carlos Rodon before they cool off, as THE BAT X projects. Robbie Ray, in San Francisco, or Seth Lugo, of the Royals, who have current values of $10.20 and $9.50, respectively, but rest-of-season values in the negative, could be fade candidates in shallower leagues with other high-performing pitchers available. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Gunnar Henderson stands out as a player to target in trades. He's hitting .264 with an xBA that's similar, but his hard-hit percentage of 56.0 is in the 95th percentile, and his bat speed is in the 9oth percentile. His OPS is below .800 for the first time since 2022, when he had only 132 plate appearances, but we know what he's capable of. THE BAT X thinks he'll improve and you may be able to get him at a relative bargain if his current manager isn't as convinced he'll come around. On the pitching side, the Braves' Chris Sale makes the list again but you can see he's already showing improvement, with his value rising to -9.90 from -17.10 last week. No one will trade Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, but a rest-of-season value of $46.60 is absurd, so good for you if you have him on your team. You may be able to get Padres starter Dylan Cease, who's 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA, significantly underperforming preseason expectations. His expected ERA is only 4.05, but his fastball velocity is in the 86th percentile, and his Whiff% of 30.4 is in the 81st percentile. His K% of 27 is solid. He is getting hit pretty hard, but if he can bring his 9.6 BB% down, he could improve dramatically, as THE BAT X suggests. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups. Alex Verdugo, Sal Frelick and Javier Sanoja top the list, but Marcell Ozuna, James Wood and Jackson Chourio also have favorable matchups with higher fantasy and underlying values. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. Advertisement Leody Taveras stands out on this list, as his xwOBA is only .222. He's only batting .237 now and is not above the 36th percentile in any Statcast batting category. He's an excellent fielder with good baserunning value (seven stolen bases so far), but he's unlikely to improve at the plate. He's heavily available on waivers — leave him there. Hard-hitting catchers aren't readily available, so Hunter Goodman has provided good value at the position, but regression is expected. He's hitting .288, but his xBA is only .236. He could be someone to consider trading if you have another high-performing catcher on your roster, or you could flip him for a catcher with better projections. If you need a catcher, and he's on waivers, grab him with caution. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman was projected to have a phenomenal season and hasn't met expectations. He's only batting .203, but his xBA is .268, and he's in the 95th percentile or above in Whiff%, Chase%, and Squared-Up%. His barrels are average, and his HH% is low, but he's also had bad luck. Hold him, grab him or trade for him if you can. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. It's no surprise that the Dodgers top this list, but the Cincinnati Reds face the White Sox and Guardians, so Elly De La Cruz and company could see better weeks. Maybe Matt McLain, who is batting .165 with a Barrel% in the 69th percentile and a HardHit% in the 73rd, could begin to recover some value. THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens. The best projected pitcher this week is Tarik Skubal, which is no surprise. But here's Dylan Cease again (see above). This list is full of top-tier pitchers who happen to be projected for two starts. I'd be surprised if anyone left these pitchers on the bench this week. Colin Rea, who has the highest projected ERA on this list, has a 2.43 ERA this season and faces the Marlins and White Sox. He could outplay even these projections. THE BAT X has Carlos Rodon as the only top pitcher to consider benching, as he faces the Mets. But, Corbin Burnes was on the list last week and ended up with a win against the Dodgers. Rodon hasn't pitched as well as Burnes, though, and the Mets are a formidable opponent, so tread lightly. Based on matchups, the Cubs' bullpen could provide tremendous value against the Marlins and White Sox. Gavin Hollowell and Daniel Palencia both have sub-2.00 ERAs. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Dylan Cease: Al Bello / Getty Images)
