Latest news with #weatherexperts
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Severe geomagnetic storm could spark auroras, disrupt communications next week
(FOX 5/KUSI) — A powerful solar storm is on the way, and it could disrupt communications, GPS systems and even produce rare auroras across parts of the United States early next week, according to weather experts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for Monday, June 2, after a coronal mass ejection (CME)—an enormous burst of solar plasma—erupted from the Sun on Friday, May 30. The CME is expected to reach Earth by Sunday evening (June 1) and could spark strong geomagnetic activity almost immediately. Initial storm levels may reach G3 (Strong), with conditions potentially intensifying to G4 by Monday. Although the forecast indicates strong potential for disruption, officials note that the exact timing and intensity of the storm are still uncertain. Much of the impact will depend on the CME's magnetic orientation—data that will only be known once it reaches solar wind observatories located about 1 million miles from Earth. 'Upon arrival at those spacecraft, we will know the magnetic strength and orientation that are very important to what levels and duration of geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to occur,' NOAA officials noted in the weather warning. While most aurora activity is typically seen closer to the poles, strong geomagnetic storms can push auroras farther south. Depending on how intense the storm becomes, parts of the northern U.S. may be treated to rare views of the Northern Lights. A G4-level storm could lead to GPS errors, radio signal disruptions, and even voltage irregularities in power grids, though these impacts are less likely at lower latitudes. High-frequency radio communications, used in some trans-oceanic flights, and navigation systems may be affected. Airlines and space agencies are monitoring the situation closely. The storm is expected to taper off by Tuesday, June 3, with lingering G1-G2 (Minor to Moderate) conditions possible. For the latest updates, NOAA recommends visiting its Space Weather Prediction Center. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
BBC News
22-05-2025
- Climate
- BBC News
Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 2025 predicted to be 'above average'
US weather experts are warning that the 2025 hurricane season could have an 'above average' number of the latest official forecast just released, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that the 2025 storm season could have between 13-19 named storms, of which six to ten could be hurricanes and three to five of those could be major hurricanes of Category 3 (111mph) or can be deadly and devastate communities so each year US forecasters try to predict what the season ahead will be like, helping those in hurricane-prone areas to prepare early, stay across warnings and hopefully prevent loss of life. The North Atlantic Hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 forecast will be updated as the season unfolds. What is a 'normal' hurricane season? Hurricanes are tropical storms that form over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Pacific. In other bits of the world these powerful storms are known by different names - typhoons in the Far East close to places like China and Japan and cyclones in the Indian season activity usually peaks in September. Forecasters use weather observations, decades of historical data and run computer models to predict how the season might "average" one, based on a 30-year period from 1991-2020, produces 14 named the number of hurricanes forecast is higher than average these are referred to as active or hyperactive seasons - while other years bring fewer storms, and are known as less active annual forecast, released slightly earlier by Colorado State University, points to 2025 being an above-average season, with a total of 17 named storms predicted, including nine hurricanes and four of those becoming major hurricanes. How accurate was last year's forecast? The 2024 hurricane season, overall, was correctly predicted by NOAA to be more active than average. There were 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes; it was also the first in five years to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes (the highest level). Yet it also defied expectations at times, with stretches of powerful storms interspersed with weeks of relative started as a record breaker. In June and July, Hurricane Beryl devastated parts of the Caribbean and broke records as the earliest storm ever to reach Category 5 - an intensity usually seen during peak season. It brought death and destruction to parts of the Caribbean, areas of Mexico and the Gulf coast of the concern grew about what might be to come, the season then became unusually quiet midway through with the the most prolonged lull in hurricane numbers for around 50 years. It wasn't until late September and into October that the big ones 4 Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida's Big Bend, bringing powerful winds and later record-breaking rainfall across the Carolinas. Hurricane Milton, which reached Category 5 strength near the Yucatán Peninsula, struck Florida as a Category 3, driving hurricane-force winds far human cost across the season in terms of deaths was in the hundreds with most of the fatalities being water-related, from flooding, storm surges and rip currents. In terms of the physical damage, estimates varied widely depending on the scope of impacts considered, but according to NOAA direct physical damage from Helene cost $78.7bn and Milton $34.3bn, external. How is a hurricane season forecast? Each year the areas just north and south of the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn spawn storms that vary in the paths they take and the force with which they strike land in the Caribbean, Central America or the US. Hurricanes draw energy from the tropical Atlantic, so forecasters monitor the sea surface temperatures well ahead of the 2024, early signs of above-average warmth in that area suggested a higher risk of frequent and intense storms. This year, while many areas remain warmer than average, there are also large regions where the temperature is slightly cooler - or even below normal. It could be an early sign that there may be less energy available for hurricane forecasting an entire hurricane season is a complex challenge, as it involves many interconnected factors, one significant one is the West African rains that bring powerful thunderstorms to Nigeria, the Ivory Coast and Sierra Leone can sometimes develop into hurricanes once they move across the the West African monsoon behaves differently to usual, it can significantly influence how and when hurricanes form. In addition, complex wind patterns that stretch from Africa to the Gulf of Mexico can either support or hinder ideal environment for a hurricane to develop is a moist atmosphere with steady sudden shifts in wind direction and speed - known as wind shear - can tear developing tropical storms apart before they can fully form into wind shear for an entire season is extremely difficult, but forecasters had expected optimal conditions for hurricanes in 2024. In reality there were periods when wind sheer hindered hurricane formations across parts of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and this may have contributed to the mid-season lull. Influence of El Niño and La Niña The infamous El Niño, and its opposite La Niña weather patterns, strongly influence wind patterns over the Atlantic despite occurring many thousands of miles rainstorms that develop over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific during El Niño often lead to increased wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and tropical Atlantic. The opposite tends to occur during La Niña, when wind shear is typically reduced. Since wind shear is one of the most effective forces for tearing hurricanes apart, understanding conditions in the eastern Pacific is crucial for forecasting. Projections for 2025 suggest a neutral pattern - neither El Niño nor La Niña - which makes predicting wind patterns more challenging and uncertain.
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Kansas City under enhanced severe weather risk Monday, multiple rounds of storms expected
Severe thunderstorms are possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk, level 3 out of 5, for the Kansas City area. While many ingredients favorable for severe thunderstorms will come together on Monday, the setup remains messy across the Enhanced Risk area.
CBC
13-05-2025
- Climate
- CBC
Manitoba's hot, dry weather could put farmers, firefighters to the test
Hot and dry conditions so far this season in Manitoba, including a record-breaking heat wave in recent days, has weather experts warning of trouble ahead for firefighters and farmers.
SBS Australia
10-05-2025
- Climate
- SBS Australia
It's been a hot autumn for many Australians. Will it be a warm winter?
This year, for many Australians, it feels like summer never left. The sunny days and warm nights have continued well into autumn. Even now, in May, it's still unusually warm. Much of the southern half of the continent is experiencing both unseasonable warmth and dry conditions. This is linked to persistent high atmospheric pressure (called 'blocking') to the south and southeast of Australia. While temperatures will fall across southern Australia as we approach the winter solstice, early indications are that this winter will be a warm one. Rainfall predictions are less certain. The extra warmth we've experienced raises obvious questions about the influence of human-caused climate change. The warming signal is clear, and it's a sign of things to come. March and April brought unseasonal heat to much of Australia. March was widely hot, with temperatures several degrees above normal across much of the country. But April's heat was largely restricted to the southeast. Victoria had its warmest April on record, and parts of the state experienced temperatures more than 3C above normal across both March and April. Temperatures normally fall quite quickly over the southeast of Australia during April and May as the days shorten and the continent's interior cools. But this year, southern Australia was unusually warm at the start of May. Some locations experienced days with maximum temperatures more than 10C above normal for the time of year. Records were broken in Hobart and parts of Melbourne, which had their warmest May nights since observations began. While Queensland and the NSW coast have had very wet spells, including downpours from Tropical Cyclone Alfred at the start of March, other parts of Australia have been quite dry. The area between Adelaide and Melbourne has been exceptionally dry. A drought is unfolding in the region after a severe lack of rainfall, with deficits stretching back over the past year or so. Western Tasmania is also suffering from a severe lack of rainfall since the start of autumn, although welcome rain fell in the past week. And it's not just on land that unusual heat has been observed. The seas around Australia have been warmer than normal, causing severe coral bleaching to the west and east of the continent, harmful algal blooms and other ecosystem disruptions. A high-pressure system has dominated over the south and southeast of Australia over the past few months. High pressure in the Tasman Sea can sometimes get stuck there for a few days. This leads to what's known as 'blocking', when the usual passage of weather systems moving from west to east is obstructed. This can lock in weather patterns for several days or even a week. Repeated blocking occurred this autumn. As winds move anticlockwise around high-pressure systems in the Southern Hemisphere, blocking highs in the Tasman Sea can bring moist, onshore winds to the NSW and Queensland coasts, increasing rainfall. But such high-pressure systems also bring drier conditions for the interior of the southeast and much of Victoria and South Australia. Often, these high-pressure systems also bring northerly winds to Victoria, and this can cause warmer conditions across much of the state. High-pressure systems also tend to bring more clear and sunny conditions, which increases daytime temperatures in particular. Air in high-pressure systems moves down towards the surface and this process causes warming, too. Australia sits between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and is subject to their variability, so we often look there to help explain what's happening with Australia's climate. In autumn, though, our climate influences, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are less active and have weaker relationships with Australian climate than at other times of year. Neither of these climate influences is in a strong phase at the moment. One big question is how long the heat will last. In parts of south-east Australia, including Melbourne, average temperatures drop quickly at this time of year as we approach the winter solstice. However, the seasonal outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology points to a high likelihood of a relatively warm winter. Australians rarely escape having a winter without any significant cold spells, but the long-range forecast suggests we should anticipate above-normal temperatures on average. Both daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to be above average generally this winter. The elephant in the room is climate change. Human-caused climate change is increasing autumn temperatures and the frequency of late-season heat events. As greenhouse gas emissions continue at a record pace, expect continued warming and a greater chance of autumn heatwaves in future. The effect of climate change on rainfall is less clear, though. For the vast majority of Australia, there is high uncertainty as to whether autumn will become wetter or drier as the world warms. Andrew King is an associate professor in climate science at the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather at the University of Melbourne.
