2 days ago
More snow, drought relief, cold winds ahead, so what happened to predicted warm winter?
Most of central and eastern Australia has shivered through the coldest first fortnight of winter in at least three years, and for pockets of the Murray Basin and north-west Queensland, the coldest in decades.
This includes Canberra's chilliest start to winter in 25 years, and Mount Isa's coldest in 51 years.
And the bleak conditions are set to continue, including further snow for the Alps, wintry showers for drought-affected southern states, along with frosty nights in the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, and Queensland.
However, weather modelling is also in strong agreement on another forecast — the cold won't last, and this winter should still be one of the warmest on record.
The cold snap this week extended well north with frosty temperatures observed as far north as Julia Creek at a tropical latitude of 20 south.
Numerous daily extremes were recorded as overnight lows dipped 10 degrees Celsius below the June average, including Winton's coldest June night in 48 years (0.0C), and Mount Isa's coldest in 44 years (-0.7C).
For southern Queensland, NSW and the ACT multiple locations dropped below -5C this week, including Oakey, Cooma, Glen Innes, Goulburn, and Canberra.
Milder regions near the coast also shivered — Brisbane's Friday morning low of 5.2C was the city's coldest night in seven years.
So what happened to the warm winter promised by weather models and the Bureau Of Meteorology (BoM)?
The current situation closely resembles last year. After a forecast for a warm winter, eastern Australia was notably frosty for a few weeks in June and July.
The headlines then asserted the BoM's modelling was wrong, however a week or two doesn't make a season, and both June and July still finished warmer than normal when averaging minimums and maximums across the entire country.
A record warm August then followed, leading to Australia's mean for the entire season ranking as the second warmest on record when comparing all winters since 1910.
And that's exactly what's likely to occur this year, by winter's end it's highly probable the mean temperature will be well above average — and quite possibly one of the highest on record.
The BoM's seasonal outlooks are updated every week to utilise the latest observations, basically if the modelling doesn't have a clear picture of the current state of the atmosphere it has little hope in accurately forecasting the future state.
And the latest long-range forecast, despite the cold air currently analysed over Australia, is still showing a strong swing to favour well above average minimums and maximums through the remainder of winter.
And the wait for warmer weather won't be long.
After frosty nights this weekend as far north as central Queensland, the country as a whole can expect higher temperatures from about mid-week
By next weekend, a northerly airstream may even lift maximums as high as 20C as far south as northern Victoria.
The cold fronts and polar air responsible for the wintry weather is also bringing much needed rain.
While falls are well short of what is required to break the drought, this June is on track to become the wettest month in one to two years for much of southern South Australia and western Victoria.
Warrnambool hit its June average rain of 79 millimetres just 11 days into the month, while Adelaide's total of 42mm is already the city's wettest month since last winter.
And thankfully there's more rain ahead as a pair of cold fronts sweep overhead during the coming days.
The first front clipped south-west Western Australia on Friday and brought up to 20mm around Bunbury and has now reached the SA coast.
This system will generate from 1 to 10mm in areas south of about Port Augusta during the next 24 hours, including north-west Victoria and south-west NSW.
A second stronger front will then follow through Monday and Tuesday and bring an average fall of 5 to 10mm, on this occasion to southern SA and south-west Victoria.
For coastal areas of SA, including Adelaide, more than 20mm is possible by mid next week.
WA can also look forward to further rain as a series of cold fronts from Tuesday to Saturday drops more than 50mm on the lower west coast, including around Perth.
Winter rain is essential for western farmers, and this week could produce more than 20mm across parts of the wheat belt.
Last weekend's storm resulted in the deepest mid-June snow cover across the Australian Alps in three years.
But 2022 aside, it's been one of the best starts to a ski season in decades — the natural snow depth reported by Mount Hotham is currently the second highest at this point in the season in 25 years.
The upcoming fronts also promise to deliver a fresh top-up, although the first system reaching the Alps on Sunday night will only bring a light dusting.
The second front has a higher snow potential and could bring 10 to 20 centimetres to Victorian resorts, and if everything lines up suitably, 10cm is also possible in NSW.
For non-alpine regions, the post frontal air won't be cold enough for snow with the likely freezing level not dropping below about 1,400 metres.
