Latest news with #winter2023
ABC News
08-07-2025
- Climate
- ABC News
Eastern states shivered through a chilly June, is a warmer winter still on the cards?
It is now two weeks past the winter solstice, and despite a prediction of a warmer winter, many Australians have been feeling the cold. Large parts of the country have shivered through sub-zero temperatures and there have been big dumps of snow and powerful storms. So, have temperatures been significantly cold, or has the country become acclimatised to milder winter temperatures? A look at overnight minimum temperatures, which typically occur first thing in the morning, indicates days have started particularly chilly in many parts of Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology's temperature anomaly map shows most of the country experienced "cooler than average" minimum temperatures for June, apart from southern WA, western South Australia and northern Queensland. Daytime maximum temperatures, however, were closer to average for most of the country, apart from WA, which was warmer than normal. BOM climatologist Qian Zhou said the cold mornings had made it New South Wales's coldest June in nearly 20 years, by minimum temperature, while Queensland had its coldest June minimums in over a decade. "In June, several cold fronts passed us through the south and south-east with cold air behind it," Ms Zhou said. "And after the cold front passed, high-pressure systems settled in, creating the clear skies and the light winds overnight, allowing heat to escape. The cold minimum temperatures included -10 degrees Celsius in Goulburn, in the New South Wales Southern Tablelands, on June 21, which was colder than some sites in Antarctica. Canberra had three mornings in a row below -7C, a record cold run for the city. Tasmania also saw some particularly cold mornings late in the month, with Liawenee plunging to -9C, while Queensland's typically mild weather was freezing on several occasions. While the frigid mornings have warranted a scarf and beanie, they have been far from remarkable by historical standards — with the month coming in as the 48th coldest June on record. "Although the minimum temperature in June across Australia was below average, it was not that remarkably low compared to history," Ms Zhou said. Barely more than a handful of sites with more than 20 years of data broke daily cold records. Ms Zhou said record cold temperatures were becoming less common because of climate change. Since 1910, Australia's average temperature has warmed by more than 1.5C, with most of that change occurring since the 1950s. It means all seasons are getting warmer on average. The last "colder than average" winter, for example, was more than a decade ago. While cold extremes have become rarer, warm extremes have been getting more common, according to Ms Zhou. "And there has been an increase in number of extreme heat events. "A big part of this is due to global warming." The exception was for extreme cold nights in parts of south-east and south-west Australia, where the frequency of frost had been relatively unchanged since the 1980s. Ms Zhou said this was because those regions were also facing a rainfall decline during the cooler months, resulting in more time under clear skies and more "heat loss from the surface" — just like this year. The official winter outlook strongly favoured warm days and nights for June for almost the entire country. June was warmer than average for maximum temperatures. So, in that case, the outlook was accurate. But for the minimum temperatures, the outlook showed strong odds of warm minimum temperatures and for most places, that did not eventuate. Ms Zhou said it demonstrated how individual weather events, which were not able to be detected in the long-range outlook, could change the outcome of a month or season. "The long-range forecasts are unable to predict individual weather events more than one or two weeks in advance," she said. "Those weather systems are short timescales, but the long-range outlook is providing a forecast of the overall trend for the season. "In June, there were at least two major cold fronts with cold outbreaks, which brought abnormally cold air to much of the country and particularly to the east, which the long-range forecast was unlikely to be able to resolve at a long lead time." Technically, though, the outlook can not be wrong because it is not declaring what will happen, but just presenting the odds. Even though there was an 80 per cent chance of it being warmer than average, there was still a 20 per cent chance of it being colder than average. In this case, the outside chance won. Just because June was cold, it does not mean the rest of winter will continue that way. You only need to look to last year as an example. Frigid temperatures in June 2024 saw many calling it the "coldest winter in living memory" and criticising the BOM for getting their forecast wrong. But by the end of August, it was Australia's second-warmest winter on record. The Bureau of Meteorology has softened its forecast for the rest of this winter though. For the most part, it is still expected to be warmer than normal for July and August. But what was a fairly emphatic signal of warmth for the entire country is now looking more patchy, depending on where you live. Parts of South Australia are now expected to have cooler-than-average minimum temperatures in July, though maximum temperatures are still expected to be above average for most. And by August, large parts of inland Australia are showing even chances of above- or below-average maximum temperatures — meaning it could go either way. As for rainfall, July is forecast to be average to below average for most places, apart from coastal NSW, which is expected to be wetter than normal. This changes in August, with rainfall largely favoured to be above average for most of the NT, Queensland, NSW and parts of South Australia.
Yahoo
19-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Britain's risk of power outages this winter lowest since pre-Covid, Neso says
The risk of Britain having power outages this winter is lower than it has been for the past six years, according to forecasts by the public body responsible for keeping the lights on. The National Electricity System Operator (Neso) said there is set to be enough electricity to meet demand over the colder winter months. In its early winter outlook, Neso anticipates an average operational margin – the difference between supply of electricity and demand for it – of 6.6 gigawatts (GW) from the end of October to the end of March. This is the highest expected margin since the 2019-2020 winter and is greater than the 5.2 GW forecast last year. The publicly-owned operator is tasked with ensuring that the supply of and demand for electricity always remains balanced. If supply cannot meet demand then the country risks blackouts. An increase in the margin has been driven by several factors, Neso said, including growth in electricity supply from battery storage at both a national and regional level – which enables power from renewables to be stored and then released when it is needed. It also pointed to an increase in the availability of electricity generation from gas, and from a new power cable, known as the Greenlink interconnector, connecting electricity grids between Wales and Ireland. This increased supply is expected to more than offset an expected rise in demand during peak periods. The slight uptick marks a divergence from previous years, when demand has either stayed the same or fallen, but Neso said it is too early to say what might drive that increase. Neso said it expects there to be around six minutes over the winter period where it might have to resort to special measures to keep the grid running smoothly. In most cases where demand exceeds supply for a period of time, it is managed by the grid operator without any impact on consumers. Neso stressed it was remaining 'vigilant' in its preparation for the winter amid changes in global energy markets. 'Our early view of the winter ahead shows a positive outlook with sufficient margins throughout the colder winter months,' Deborah Petterson, Neso's director of resilience and emergency management said. 'We will continue to monitor developments in global energy markets, remaining vigilant in our preparations to ensure that the resilience and reliability of the electricity network is maintained.'
ABC News
13-06-2025
- Climate
- ABC News
More snow, drought relief, cold winds ahead, so what happened to predicted warm winter?
Most of central and eastern Australia has shivered through the coldest first fortnight of winter in at least three years, and for pockets of the Murray Basin and north-west Queensland, the coldest in decades. This includes Canberra's chilliest start to winter in 25 years, and Mount Isa's coldest in 51 years. And the bleak conditions are set to continue, including further snow for the Alps, wintry showers for drought-affected southern states, along with frosty nights in the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, and Queensland. However, weather modelling is also in strong agreement on another forecast — the cold won't last, and this winter should still be one of the warmest on record. The cold snap this week extended well north with frosty temperatures observed as far north as Julia Creek at a tropical latitude of 20 south. Numerous daily extremes were recorded as overnight lows dipped 10 degrees Celsius below the June average, including Winton's coldest June night in 48 years (0.0C), and Mount Isa's coldest in 44 years (-0.7C). For southern Queensland, NSW and the ACT multiple locations dropped below -5C this week, including Oakey, Cooma, Glen Innes, Goulburn, and Canberra. Milder regions near the coast also shivered — Brisbane's Friday morning low of 5.2C was the city's coldest night in seven years. So what happened to the warm winter promised by weather models and the Bureau Of Meteorology (BoM)? The current situation closely resembles last year. After a forecast for a warm winter, eastern Australia was notably frosty for a few weeks in June and July. The headlines then asserted the BoM's modelling was wrong, however a week or two doesn't make a season, and both June and July still finished warmer than normal when averaging minimums and maximums across the entire country. A record warm August then followed, leading to Australia's mean for the entire season ranking as the second warmest on record when comparing all winters since 1910. And that's exactly what's likely to occur this year, by winter's end it's highly probable the mean temperature will be well above average — and quite possibly one of the highest on record. The BoM's seasonal outlooks are updated every week to utilise the latest observations, basically if the modelling doesn't have a clear picture of the current state of the atmosphere it has little hope in accurately forecasting the future state. And the latest long-range forecast, despite the cold air currently analysed over Australia, is still showing a strong swing to favour well above average minimums and maximums through the remainder of winter. And the wait for warmer weather won't be long. After frosty nights this weekend as far north as central Queensland, the country as a whole can expect higher temperatures from about mid-week By next weekend, a northerly airstream may even lift maximums as high as 20C as far south as northern Victoria. The cold fronts and polar air responsible for the wintry weather is also bringing much needed rain. While falls are well short of what is required to break the drought, this June is on track to become the wettest month in one to two years for much of southern South Australia and western Victoria. Warrnambool hit its June average rain of 79 millimetres just 11 days into the month, while Adelaide's total of 42mm is already the city's wettest month since last winter. And thankfully there's more rain ahead as a pair of cold fronts sweep overhead during the coming days. The first front clipped south-west Western Australia on Friday and brought up to 20mm around Bunbury and has now reached the SA coast. This system will generate from 1 to 10mm in areas south of about Port Augusta during the next 24 hours, including north-west Victoria and south-west NSW. A second stronger front will then follow through Monday and Tuesday and bring an average fall of 5 to 10mm, on this occasion to southern SA and south-west Victoria. For coastal areas of SA, including Adelaide, more than 20mm is possible by mid next week. WA can also look forward to further rain as a series of cold fronts from Tuesday to Saturday drops more than 50mm on the lower west coast, including around Perth. Winter rain is essential for western farmers, and this week could produce more than 20mm across parts of the wheat belt. Last weekend's storm resulted in the deepest mid-June snow cover across the Australian Alps in three years. But 2022 aside, it's been one of the best starts to a ski season in decades — the natural snow depth reported by Mount Hotham is currently the second highest at this point in the season in 25 years. The upcoming fronts also promise to deliver a fresh top-up, although the first system reaching the Alps on Sunday night will only bring a light dusting. The second front has a higher snow potential and could bring 10 to 20 centimetres to Victorian resorts, and if everything lines up suitably, 10cm is also possible in NSW. For non-alpine regions, the post frontal air won't be cold enough for snow with the likely freezing level not dropping below about 1,400 metres.
