Latest news with #wintercrop
ABC News
3 days ago
- Business
- ABC News
Winter grain production to dip as dry conditions lead farmers to plant smaller area
Australia's winter crop production is expected to be 8 per cent lower this year, with drought and dry conditions affecting grain growers in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales. The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resources Economics and Sciences' (ABARES) June crop report estimates national winter grain production at 55.6 million tonnes. If realised, grain production would still be 13 per cent above the annual average production for the last 10 years. Dry conditions and a lack of summer rainfall across SA, western Victoria, southern New South Wales and Western Australia's northern wheatbelt meant farmers planted a smaller area than last year. "Much of the 2025–26 winter crop has been dry sown and will require adequate and timely rainfall during June to allow for crop germination and establishment. Dry autumn conditions are expected to have discouraged some growers from committing to their full planting intentions," the report said. The latest Bureau of Meterology (BOM) forecast said there was a 60 — 80 per cent chance that winter rainfall in drought-affected states could be above average. In South Australia's mid north, dry conditions and uncertainty over winter rains led grain grower Jono Mudge to reduce the area he sowed this year. "It's as bad as it gets, and it is as bad as it has has ever gotten," he said. Having received just 10mm of rain over the last five months, he isn't putting much faith in the BOM's winter forecast. "Our average annual rainfall is 325mm, if we can get 150mm from here until October I'll be stoked, but I can't see that happening the way it is at the moment." ABARES says if winter rainfall totals are above average, South Australian grain production would increase by 42 per cent to 7.5 million tonnes. Southern New South Wales farmer Ryan Dennis got halfway through his sowing program before the risk of not getting enough rain convinced him to pause. "It was desperate. You're putting money into the ground and hoping [for rain]," he said. Mr Dennis's farm in Downside, near Wagga Wagga, receives an average of 525mm of rain annually. With 150mm of rain so far, he said while crops have been slower to emerge this year, wheat and barley crops still have time. "Normal main season canola would hopefully be up around your ankles by now, but we're just finding [the very first leaves]," he said. "Everything's definitely delayed, but the wheat and the barley is not too far out of its [emergence] window." Many Western Australian grain growers completed sowing their crops into dry soils, but a slow moving low pressure system is expected to bring rain to most of the state this week. "Through all the farming districts, we're looking at most locations getting between 10-30mm [on Tuesday] as this system moves across WA," BOM senior meteorologist Joey Rawson said. "We've got three days of quite heavy rainfall across the farming regions." York farmer, and chair of GrainGrowers Rhys Turton said it's been a nervous wait for a season break. "I think most people plugged through their program without too many changes from what I'm hearing. "So I think as every day went by and there was more dust blowing behind the machines, everyone was looking to the sky and looking to phones for the latest weather forecast." Unlike the eastern states, ABARES said WA growers planted a larger area of winter grain crops this year. Above average rain in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales has helped farmers sow their winter crops with confidence. "Average to above average soil moisture levels at planting, combined with a positive rainfall outlook for winter, are expected to support above average yield prospects," ABARES said. "The weather was very kind to us during summer, which has allowed us to do this winter crop planting," grain grower Stuart McIntyre said. And with basically everything full at the moment, that'll allow us for a nice large summer crop."
ABC News
25-05-2025
- Climate
- ABC News
Farmers set to plant a record crop equivalent to the entire UK
Despite severe drought and devastating flooding, Australian farmers are on track to plant a record winter crop, sowing an area equivalent to the size of the United Kingdom. A report by agribusiness Rabobank estimates 24.5 million hectares of wheat, barley, chickpeas and canola will be sown, breaking the record of 24.1 million hectares set in 2020/21. That is despite farmers in southern parts of the country reducing their planting or diversifying to cope with devastating dry conditions. For those farmers who received the wetter-than-average "summer luck", the forecast is a welcome dose of optimism after some tough seasons. Michael Ryan is one of those farmers gearing up for a big plant. He cannot help but feel thankful as he runs his hands through the rich, chocolate-brown soil on his property in Pilton, two hours south-west of Brisbane. In the past year, 730 millimetres of rain fell on his farm, 80 per cent more than average. "It's one of the best outlooks I've seen in the last 10 to 15 years," Mr Ryan said. "We're pretty lucky in this Pilton Valley. "We have very nice self-cracking, mulching clay soil; some people say it's that nice you could eat it. "I'm very lucky to be able to farm it." Alongside his wife Alyson and three children, Mr Ryan is preparing machinery for sowing wheat in a few weeks. He said it was a stark contrast to tough seasons between 2018 and 2020 when plantings were minimal. "We hardly grew a crop," he said. "While these good years are around, we've got to make the most of it because you never know when the next drought is." With 40 years spent on the land, Mr Ryan understands how quickly fortunes can change in agriculture. That is especially apparent this year, as parts of South Australia and Victoria struggle with record dry conditions, and parts of New South Wales reel from deadly flooding. "You really feel for those poor people," Mr Ryan said. "It's like someone's fortune is someone's misfortune, too." While the current flooding emergency in NSW had likely damaged some crops, it was unlikely to change the forecast, as Rabobank expected livestock producers were the hardest hit. Grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia, who authored the report, said wetter-than-average conditions in the northern growing region over summer were driving the record forecast. "[Summer] flooding in some cropping regions may delay sowing but it is supportive for another season of large sowing areas," he said. "WA's southern cropping areas also received timely rainfall to have a good start to the season. "Other cropping regions around the country though, did not get the same summer luck." He said in South Australia, western parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales the soil was too dry to plant. "For South Australia, everything is hanging on the season break, which up to this moment, hasn't happened," Mr Pistoia said. At Warra, three hours north-west of Brisbane, farmer and Grain Producers Australia northern director Brendan Taylor faces a different challenge. Like many Queensland farmers, his barley is already planted, but conditions need to dry out to sow chickpeas. "The risk we've got in some places in the south here where it is very wet is, potentially if it rains again, that's going to delay planting even more," he said. "Hopefully Mother Nature cooperates and lets us do that." While the area sown may reach record highs, there is no guarantee it will mean bigger harvests or profits. Mr Pistoia said yields would depend on rainfall during the growing season, while input costs and grain prices would determine returns. "There are budget pressures. Fertiliser, it's costing more year over year. Machinery remains a big issue. Labour as well," he said. Rabobank forecasts the 2025–26 harvest to yield about 54 million tonnes, down from last year's 60 million. Despite global trade uncertainties, including US tariffs, Australian grain and oilseed exports remain resilient and may even gain market share, the report noted. "Asian countries rely on Australia to source imports of grains and pulses, and the EU imports canola to balance its supply of oilseeds," Mr Pistoia said. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) is expected to release its updated winter crop forecast for 2025 in June.
