Winter grain production to dip as dry conditions lead farmers to plant smaller area

Australia Broadcast Center

2 days ago

Australia's winter crop production is expected to be 8 per cent lower this year, with drought and dry conditions affecting grain growers in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales.
The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resources Economics and Sciences' (ABARES) June crop report estimates national winter grain production at 55.6 million tonnes.
If realised, grain production would still be 13 per cent above the annual average production for the last 10 years.
Dry conditions and a lack of summer rainfall across SA, western Victoria, southern New South Wales and Western Australia's northern wheatbelt meant farmers planted a smaller area than last year.
"Much of the 2025–26 winter crop has been dry sown and will require adequate and timely rainfall during June to allow for crop germination and establishment. Dry autumn conditions are expected to have discouraged some growers from committing to their full planting intentions," the report said.
The latest Bureau of Meterology (BOM) forecast said there was a 60 — 80 per cent chance that winter rainfall in drought-affected states could be above average.
In South Australia's mid north, dry conditions and uncertainty over winter rains led grain grower Jono Mudge to reduce the area he sowed this year.
"It's as bad as it gets, and it is as bad as it has has ever gotten," he said.
Having received just 10mm of rain over the last five months, he isn't putting much faith in the BOM's winter forecast.
"Our average annual rainfall is 325mm, if we can get 150mm from here until October I'll be stoked, but I can't see that happening the way it is at the moment."
ABARES says if winter rainfall totals are above average, South Australian grain production would increase by 42 per cent to 7.5 million tonnes.
Southern New South Wales farmer Ryan Dennis got halfway through his sowing program before the risk of not getting enough rain convinced him to pause.
"It was desperate. You're putting money into the ground and hoping [for rain]," he said.
Mr Dennis's farm in Downside, near Wagga Wagga, receives an average of 525mm of rain annually.
With 150mm of rain so far, he said while crops have been slower to emerge this year, wheat and barley crops still have time.
"Normal main season canola would hopefully be up around your ankles by now, but we're just finding [the very first leaves]," he said.
"Everything's definitely delayed, but the wheat and the barley is not too far out of its [emergence] window."
Many Western Australian grain growers completed sowing their crops into dry soils, but a slow moving low pressure system is expected to bring rain to most of the state this week.
"Through all the farming districts, we're looking at most locations getting between 10-30mm [on Tuesday] as this system moves across WA," BOM senior meteorologist Joey Rawson said.
"We've got three days of quite heavy rainfall across the farming regions."
York farmer, and chair of GrainGrowers Rhys Turton said it's been a nervous wait for a season break.
"I think most people plugged through their program without too many changes from what I'm hearing.
"So I think as every day went by and there was more dust blowing behind the machines, everyone was looking to the sky and looking to phones for the latest weather forecast."
Unlike the eastern states, ABARES said WA growers planted a larger area of winter grain crops this year.
Above average rain in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales has helped farmers sow their winter crops with confidence.
"Average to above average soil moisture levels at planting, combined with a positive rainfall outlook for winter, are expected to support above average yield prospects," ABARES said.
"The weather was very kind to us during summer, which has allowed us to do this winter crop planting," grain grower Stuart McIntyre said.
And with basically everything full at the moment, that'll allow us for a nice large summer crop."