Latest news with #ÉricGrenier
CBC
25-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Uncertainty blankets Metro Vancouver as Liberals gain traction in historically NDP, Conservative ridings
This is part of a series of regional features focusing on issues and ridings in B.C. that could prove critical to the outcome of the federal election on April 28. Just days before the 2025 federal election, the potential outcome in several Metro Vancouver ridings is unclear, even in those that are often considered sure things for all of the three main parties. A couple of weeks ago, the polls were showing the potential that the Liberals may win every seat in the Metro Vancouver area. As of April 24, the region's leaning weren't quite as clear; data showed a toss up in several ridings. "The Liberals are doing a lot better than they had in the last few elections, the NDP doing a bit worse, Conservatives more or less on track with where they were in the past," said Éric Grenier, a poll analyst and writer with The Writ, and who is running the CBC Poll Tracker. "It raises the question of how many of those seats are going to flip." Conservative incumbents in ridings like South Surrey-White Rock and Abbotsford-South Langley are facing tough competition from Liberal candidates, polls show. Meanwhile, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh could actually lose his seat in Burnaby Central, which polling website has consistently shown as Liberal leaning during the campaign. Singh himself didn't necessarily seem steadfast in his ability to win the riding; when reporters asked him about his chances two weeks ago, Singh initially dodged the question. It took a reporter asking again for him to say "I'm confident that I'll be able to serve the people of Burnaby Central." Even Vancouver East, where the NDP's Jenny Kwan has held the MP seat for nearly 10 years, and her predecessor Libby Davies, also of the NDP and who held it for eight years, isn't safe for the New Democrats this time around; on Thursday morning, 338 suggested the Liberals had an equal shot at winning the seat. Political scientist Stewart Prest said it's notable that the Liberals would even have a shot in that riding. "If there's a safe seat for the NDP in the country, we would think it would be Vancouver East," he said. "It is an unusual election." Toss up For the purpose of this story, CBC News looked at 23 ridings in the Metro Vancouver area, as shown below. As of Thursday, 10 of those ridings, situated throughout the region, were considered a "toss up" by — that is, the numbers weren't strong enough to determine one clear winner in those areas. "The Liberals, at one point during the campaign were really far ahead," Grenier said. "Their lead was starting to get into the five, six, seven-point range in B.C. Now it's more in a three or four-point range." How are the parties doing? Check CBC's Poll Tracker Still a decent lead, but as Prest pointed out, a lot can change in just one day during an election campaign, especially when Canada's closest neighbour is threatening the country's sovereignty, placing tariffs on Canadian goods and making decisions that constantly impact the global market. If U.S. President Donald Trump remains the biggest problem, Prest said, the Liberals will likely continue to see success in Metro Vancouver and elsewhere. "But if that starts to erode or if there are new critiques of of Mr. [Mark] Carney and whether he is really listening to Canadians … then we might see that [support for the Liberals] eroded." Ross Michael Pink, a political science instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University, said that while the polls may be showing some degree of uncertainty, the Greater Vancouver Area has historically voted "Liberal left." "I think it's somewhat predictable," he said, referring to the region showing more support for the federal Liberal Party. Strategic voting In every election, Prest said, there's an element of strategic voting — some people don't necessarily vote for the party they're most aligned with, but one that will knock down a party that they really don't want in power. "This is strategic voting on steroids," Prest said of what polls are showing this year. He said this happened in 2015, when Canadians who had grown tired of then-prime minister Stephen Harper were choosing between the Liberal Party's Justin Trudeau and former NDP leader Tom Mulcair. "We're seeing that, but even more magnified, where the vote for the NDP really is collapsing at this point, some polls having them in single digits," Prest said. "This is clearly a phenomenon of strategic voting driven by Mr. Trump and effectively his ability, his superpower really, to make everything about him and the election here in Canada is a part of that." It's all about strategy for the parties, too — Grenier said that's what Carney's trip to B.C.'s South Coast this week was all about. With all these toss ups, the party is looking to solidify their chances in the region. "They're playing a little bit of offence and defence, trying to go after some of those NDP seats and also trying to shore up their seats south of the Fraser River," he said. Vancouver could determine minority, majority: Grenier Federal elections can be frustrating for western provinces whose voters may still be standing in line at the polls while ballots are being counted out east — and the election is called before they get home. But Grenier said current polls suggest B.C. could play an important role in the outcome of this election. "If we do see in the coming days that the margins continue to get a little bit tighter between the Liberals and the Conservatives, we could be in a place where the extra 10 seats that the Liberals might be able to pick up in B.C. could make the difference," he said. No matter who Metro Vancouver voters are supporting, Pink implores people to vote. "There are ridings historically in Canada and America and other countries that have been decided by less than 10 votes, so it's very important," he said.
CBC
14-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Poll Tracker shows steady Liberal lead, with larger margins in Ontario and Quebec
Éric Grenier, who runs CBC's Poll Tracker, joins Power & Politics to break down where the parties stand in the polls with just two weeks to go until election day. Plus, the Power Panel weighs in on the parties' campaign strategies.
CBC
13-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Poll of Sask. voters has Conservatives maintaining strong support, but Liberals gaining ground
Social Sharing A new poll of Saskatchewan voters shows growing support for federal Liberals in Saskatoon and Regina — enough to make some races competitive — but Conservative support remains high across the province. "That the Liberals are really neck and neck with the Conservatives in the two big cities is a bit of a surprise," said Éric Grenier, who runs CBC's election poll tracker and writes about elections at "If it holds until election day, if we see numbers similar to this, it's very possible the map of southern Saskatchewan won't be painted entirely blue." The poll was commissioned by the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA) and conducted by Rubicon Strategy via an online survey of 747 Saskatchewan residents from April 5 to April 10. The data was weighted to reflect the age and gender distribution of the province. The margin of error for a random sample of this size is plus or minus four per cent. When asked who they would vote for if an election was held today, 38 per cent of people polled said they'd vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 25 per cent said they'd vote for the Liberal Party of Canada, according to results of the poll. Twenty per cent of voters were undecided when polled and 11 per cent of voters said they'd vote for the federal NDP. But in Saskatoon and Regina, Conservatives support is dropping among decided voters as Liberal support rises, with the parties within five points of each other among the poll's respondents. In Regina, 42 per cent of decided voters supported the Conservatives, compared to 37 per cent supporting the Liberals. Saskatoon's split was 43 per cent for the Conservatives and 38 per cent for the Liberals. Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh both made campaign stops in Saskatoon on April 9, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has yet to stop in Saskatchewan this election. The swing in support, and the decline in NDP support, makes the Liberals more competitive in some ridings, but likely not enough to actually flip more than one seat, Grenier said. "The margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals [in previous polls] was so big that even with this kind of swing, the Liberals aren't necessarily the favourites to win anything other than Regina Wascana," he said. NDP support is at 11 per cent and 13 per cent in Regina and Saskatoon, respectively. The poll also asked voters about leader likeability, their top policy issues and Canada's trade war with the U.S. Rubicon Straregy partner David Herle said the numbers show the Liberals approaching the Conservatives in several Saskatchewan ridings. "I think that the Liberals would have a fighting chance on these numbers in Saskatoon West and Saskatoon-University, and then in Regina-Wascana and Regina-Lewvan," Herle said in an interview. The Canada-U.S. trade war and President Donald Trump's annexation threats are causing voters to switch support based on their view of party leaders, Herle said. When asked if it's more important to protect Canada from Trump or to ensure Liberals aren't elected, 54 per cent chose protecting Canada over defeating the Liberals (36 per cent), according to the SUMA poll. Herle said he isn't surprised to see Saskatchewan voters assess leaders on how they will handle Trump, because the provincial economy depends it. "It's not just how much Canada sells, it's what Saskatchewan sells," Herle said. "In addition to the energy, there's obviously uranium and potash, two extraordinarily critical products for the American marketplace. As much as any province in Canada, Saskatchewan holds the whip hand over Donald Trump." This is one of the rare federal election polls that specifically surveyed voters in the province. Usually, Saskatchewan is lumped together with Manitoba and sometimes Alberta, which is why SUMA commissioned the poll, SUMA president Randy Goulden said. "That may work for a national lens, but SUMA really wanted to identify Saskatchewan specific opinions and concerns," Goulden said. "We are hearing from the residents, and now confirmed in the survey, that the actions taken by President Trump and the realities that are coming forward with tariffs are concerning. "They're very concerned about the cost of living.… What that concern around affordability points out to SUMA is that we need to continue calling for economic growth." Goulden said eliminating inter-provincial trade barriers and finding new export markets for Saskatchewan goods are among SUMA's top policy issues. CBC's Poll Tracker, which compiles publicly available polls, has the Liberals taking 43.9 per cent of the vote country-wide compared to the Conservative's 37.5 per cent, with the NDP and Bloc Québécois facing significant seat losses. The Poll Tracker puts the odds of a Liberal majority at 85 per cent. Federal Liberals and NDP made a stop in Saskatoon. Will it help either party? 3 days ago Duration 2:31 Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh made stops in Saskatoon on April 9. What was their messaging? Did it have any effect? Will Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre stop in Saskatchewan? University of Saskatchewan assistant professor of political studies Daniel Westlake joined the Morning Edition to discuss.
CBC
07-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Northern Sask. riding could be island of Liberal red in sea of Tory blue, poll suggests
Saskatchewan's northern riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River could flip to Liberal red from its current Conservative blue in the next federal election, polling suggests. The riding comprises nearly the entire northern half of the province, but with a fraction of the population (about 37,845 people, according to Elections Canada). When the federal government began the process to redefine electoral boundaries in 2022 — a non-partisan review required every 10 years — some communities that voted heavily Conservative in the previous election were moved to other federal ridings. The 338Canada project, an election projection model based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data, suggests the Liberals could win 56 per cent of the vote, plus/-minus 14 per cent, in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, with the Conservatives garnering 26 per cent of the vote, plus/minus 12 per cent. In the 2021 election, the Meadow Lake region had the most valid votes at the polls (about 2,450) and the vast majority were garnered by now-former MP Gary Vidal (about 65.8 per cent), the Conservative incumbent at the time. According to Elections Canada, if the new boundaries had been in place during the 2021 election, the Liberals would have won the seat. Éric Grenier, a polls analyst and the creator of says Conservatives won the seat comfortably in 2021 with support from Meadow Lake. He says the Conservatives would have finished third behind the Liberals if the redrawn boundaries had been in place. "If the Liberals form the government and they have a seat from Saskatchewan, that means at least they'll have one voice from Saskatchewan in the caucus," Grenier said. "One of the issues that the Liberals have had over the last few elections is they've had very few MPs from Western Canada outside of British Columbia and Winnipeg," he said. The other top voting areas in the riding — including La Ronge, Spiritwood, Christopher Lake, Creighton and Debden — also voted Conservative. In fact, the top eight regions that put forward the most valid votes (not including mail-in ballots) opted for the Tories. The issue for the Conservatives is that all of those communities, with the exception of La Ronge and Creighton, are no longer within the northern electoral boundary. "You have basically taken a bunch of conservative voters and moved them into ridings that kind of border Prince Albert or that are further south of that riding," said Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Saskatchewan. He says Saskatchewan's rural population is strongly conservative — until you get farther north: "I would suggest this is a northern Prairie riding that just is more open to progressives than most other rural Prairie ridings and probably will continue to be like that." Over the past nearly three decades, the region has ping-ponged among the three major parties: the Conservative Party of Canada, the Liberal Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party. As of Friday afternoon, the only election candidate for the riding confirmed by Elections Canada is Jim Lemaigre, running for the Conservatives. For the remainder of the parties: The Liberals have acclaimed Buckley Belanger for the seat. The federal NDP website shows Doug Racine as their candidate for the riding. The Green Party has listed Jacqueline Hanson as their candidate for the riding. The People's Party of Canada does not have a candidate for the region listed on their website. Cost of living front of mind In the province's north, the cost of living is higher. At Northern Store, the local grocery store in Stony Rapids, the cost of a 10-kilogram bag of flour is more than $40, while a three-litre bottle of olive oil runs for more than $70. Residents who spoke with CBC said the cost of living was among their top election priorities. "As you'll see, we have probably some of the most expensive milk and eggs in the whole country," Brandon Calvert said. "They complain about the egg prices in the States, but our eggs are always probably three, four times more than theirs are right now." He suggested the government could subsidize freight costs to help reduce prices at the till. Shaun Suski, a staunch Conservative supporter living in Creighton, about 430 kilometres northeast of Saskatoon, says his monthly electrical bill is more than $1,000 during the winter months. "Cost of living up here has gone up quite a bit, fuel is high, all that and carbon tax — it's hurting us for sure," he said. "Anything that we could get rid of taxes and help us save a little more and put more in our pocket is great for us." He's hesitant to trust polling suggesting Saskatchewan's northern riding could fall to the Liberals. And while the Liberal government recently pulled back the consumer carbon tax, Suski feels more comfortable voting for the party that has argued in favour of removing the tax long before the election was called. "I find [the Liberals] are just saying it now because it is election time," he said. "Before, when it was always brought up, they always fought it." Suksi says crime is also an issue in the region,leading him to lean toward Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his tough-on-crime mentality. Voter keeps an eye on rabbitsg Vince Ahenakew, a long-time Liberal supporter living in Île-à-la-Crosse, is backing a red-led north and, in doing so, he's keeping a watchful eye of the rabbits. "Kâ mihcåtitwâw wâposhwak êkota anima Lî liberal ta otahowêwak," [If there's a lot of rabbits during election season, the Liberals are going to win] he said, explaining he heard the Northern Michif phrase from elders. "And usually, they're right," he laughed. Ahenakew says he supports the Liberals because he believes their administration has best supported the country's Indigenous population. Île-à-la-Crosse, a community of about 1,425 located about 376 kilometres northwest of Saskatoon, voted Liberal in 2021. Of the top 10 communities with the most total valid votes cast, it was the only one to vote Liberal. Ahenakew says there are social and health issues in the north — including mental health and drug use — he believes could be partially resolved by better connecting with Indigenous culture. As well, he added, people in the north don't have the same easy access to medical and dental services as those in the south. Since the northern population has to pay more in travel to access those services, he says, they should not be taxed the same. Road infrastructure, education and employment are also top issues for him. And while he's a Liberal supporter, he wished luck to candidates in every party. "They all want what is best for Canada," Ahenakew said.
CBC
01-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Why isn't strong Conservative support translating into a lead in the polls?
Heading into the second week of the federal election campaign, polls suggest the Liberals hold a small lead over the Conservatives. The National's Adrienne Arsenault asks poll analysts Éric Grenier and Philippe J. Fournier to break down the numbers and why strong support for the Conservatives hasn't pushed them into the lead.
