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The Herald Scotland
2 hours ago
- Climate
- The Herald Scotland
How close to disaster did we come after tsunami warnings in US?
Earthquakes roughly the size of the 8.8 magnitude quake off Russia's coast have triggered deadly tsunamis before, including the one that struck Japan in 2011, killing 18,000 people, and one in the Indian Ocean in 2004 that killed more than 200,000. The giant waves haven't materialized this time, although some parts of Alaska's Aleutian Islands remain under a less urgent advisory. Many factors go into whether a tsunami will devastate communities or become mostly a false alarm. AccuWeather Meteorologist Peyton Simmers said forecasters didn't expect the Russian earthquake to generate waves in the United States as large as Japan saw in 2011. Still, Simmers said it could have been extremely perilous. "It could have been a far worse situation, that's for sure," Simmers told USA TODAY. "It could have caused a lot more damage." Authorities said those returning to their homes should exercise caution and keep an eye out for damage. In Alaska, forecasters said tsunami waves could continue their impact for days and make currents dangerous for anyone at the beach. How close to disaster did we come? Experts didn't expect a catastrophe akin to the tsunamis caused by some of the other largest earthquakes recorded - such as the 1960 Chilean quake of 9.5 magnitude that sent a tsunami to the United States, killing 61 in Hawaii and two along the West Coast or the Japan tsunami from a 9.0 magnitude earthquake - Simmers said. That's probably what many were worried about when they heeded evacuation orders and moved to higher ground or higher levels of buildings the afternoon of July 29. Forecasters predicted waves between 3 and 9 feet with a projected maximum of 9.8 feet to hit Hawaii. Instead, the highest wave amplitudes recorded were just about 6 feet, Simmers said. By way of comparison, Japan's tsunami generated waves that reached about 130 feet in the prefecture of Iwate. Part of the reason it wasn't worse here, Simmers said, was the distance. The tsunami wave generated by the Russian earthquake caused some damage there but had to travel thousands of miles before it could reach Hawaii, which is in a uniquely vulnerable position in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, where it can be reached by tsunamis originating from all directions, he said. Why it's hard to predict a tsunami Earthquakes cause tsunamis when they're big enough and close enough to the ocean floor, causing their energy to displace the ocean floor. When the ocean floor suddenly rises or falls, so does the water above it, creating a tsunami. A distant tsunami is generally only a threat when an earthquake's magnitude is at least 8.0, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But as the tsunami travels, it loses energy, Simmers said. Other factors that impact how serious a tsunami is include the shape of the coastline and the shape and size of a continental shelf, Simmers said. In this case, the size of the tectonic plate rupture and subsequent sea-level rise was not as large as comparably sized earthquakes that have caused much more damaging tsunamis, Simmers said. Brandon Shuck, a solid-earth geophysicist at Louisiana State University, said it's important to note that the size of the quake doesn't directly correlate to the size of a tsunami. He said factors affecting the amount of water shifted can include where the quake occurred, what other nearby faults might have been triggered or if an underwater landslide happened. "The tsunami that's generated is connected to how much of the sea floor actually moved," he said. All that makes a tsunami's trajectory and danger hard to predict. "Nevertheless, the earthquake did produce a trans-Pacific tsunami - a tsunami that can be detected from traveling all the way across the Pacific Ocean. This is still a huge and notable event, placing it firmly in the top 10 largest earthquakes ever recorded, and the tsunami warnings were all warranted," Shuck said. "We all should be thankful that this was not worse, and there's a lot of lessons we can take away from this." Even though this tsunami didn't turn out to be devastating, it was still a good idea to warn the public, said Prof. Anne Sheehan, the chair of the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. One tsunami-warning buoy six kilometers deep in the north Pacific recorded a 3-foot-high wave passing shortly after the quake - a reflection of the staggering amount of energy released, said Sheehan, also a fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. "For open ocean, to have that six-kilometer water column move a meter, that's huge and it made a lot of sense to put out a tsunami warning," she said. Sheehan recently helped with a research project in which a NOAA ship based in Alaska has been testing how to use onboard GPS to measure tsunami waves. If widely deployed across thousands of commercial ships plying the oceans at any given time, she said, such technology could eventually give an even clearer picture of wave movements. "If we can harness that position information, we can use that for tsunami forecasts," she said Could a catastrophic tsunami happen in the US? Hawaii, Alaska and some areas of the West Coast have a long history with tsunamis. Hawaii is one of the most susceptible spots in the world for tsunamis, and, on average, it experiences a destructive tsunami once every 11 years. It's not a matter of if, but when, another one happens there, Simmers said. Hawaii sits in a zone infamous for seismic activity known as the Ring of Fire. Huge, destructive earthquakes are rare, but it only takes one to trigger a tsunami that could have extreme devastation in Hawaii or the West Coast, Simmers said. "There's always that chance," he said. "In theory, it can, and probably will one day. When that is: who knows." In 1946, an 8.6-magnitude earthquake in the Aleutian subduction zone generated a tsunami in the Pacific that reached as far south as Antarctica, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The April 1 tsunami that year devastated the town of Hilo, Hawaii, on the Big Island. More than 150 people were killed when the tsunami, with runup wave heights between 33 and 55 feet, struck. Most of the deaths were in Hilo. A formal tsunami warning system wasn't established until after the 1946 catastrophe, but the Coast Guard issued warnings to many communities. In some communities, though, the warnings had the reverse effect, drawing onlookers to the coast to observe the phenomenon, according to a 1993 account from the NOAA. "This event happened on April 1, April Fool's Day, and some mistook the warning and reports of a tsunami as a hoax," the NOAA report reads. Contributing: Dinah Voyles Pulver
USA Today
12 hours ago
- Climate
- USA Today
Tsunami warnings caused panic. How close to disaster did we come?
The earthquake that hit a Russian island was among the most powerful ever recorded and forecasters immediately feared it could spur cataclysmic walls of water thousands of miles away in Hawaii, California and Alaska. But hours later, evacuation warnings were lifted for nearly all of the United States. Damage was determined to be minimal ‒ at least in the United States so far, with Honolulu's dangerous traffic gridlock the main impact. Earthquakes roughly the size of the 8.8 magnitude quake off Russia's coast have triggered deadly tsunamis before, including the one that struck Japan in 2011, killing 18,000 people, and one in the Indian Ocean in 2004 that killed more than 200,000. The giant waves haven't materialized this time, although some parts of Alaska's Aleutian Islands remain under a less urgent advisory. Many factors go into whether a tsunami will devastate communities or become mostly a false alarm. AccuWeather Meteorologist Peyton Simmers said forecasters didn't expect the Russian earthquake to generate waves in the United States as large as Japan saw in 2011. Still, Simmers said it could have been extremely perilous. "It could have been a far worse situation, that's for sure," Simmers told USA TODAY. "It could have caused a lot more damage." Authorities said those returning to their homes should exercise caution and keep an eye out for damage. In Alaska, forecasters said tsunami waves could continue their impact for days and make currents dangerous for anyone at the beach. How close to disaster did we come? Experts didn't expect a catastrophe akin to the tsunamis caused by some of the other largest earthquakes recorded – such as the 1960 Chilean quake of 9.5 magnitude that sent a tsunami to the United States, killing 61 in Hawaii and two along the West Coast or the Japan tsunami from a 9.0 magnitude earthquake – Simmers said. That's probably what many were worried about when they heeded evacuation orders and moved to higher ground or higher levels of buildings the afternoon of July 29. Forecasters predicted waves between 3 and 9 feet with a projected maximum of 9.8 feet to hit Hawaii. Instead, the highest wave amplitudes recorded were just about 6 feet, Simmers said. By way of comparison, Japan's tsunami generated waves that reached about 130 feet in the prefecture of Iwate. Part of the reason it wasn't worse here, Simmers said, was the distance. The tsunami wave generated by the Russian earthquake caused some damage there but had to travel thousands of miles before it could reach Hawaii, which is in a uniquely vulnerable position in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, where it can be reached by tsunamis originating from all directions, he said. Earthquakes cause tsunamis when they're big enough and close enough to the ocean floor, causing their energy to displace the ocean floor. When the ocean floor suddenly rises or falls, so does the water above it, creating a tsunami. A distant tsunami is generally only a threat when an earthquake's magnitude is at least 8.0, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But as the tsunami travels, it loses energy, Simmers said. Other factors that impact how serious a tsunami is include the shape of the coastline and the shape and size of a continental shelf, Simmers said. In this case, the size of the tectonic plate rupture and subsequent sea-level rise was not as large as comparably sized earthquakes that have caused much more damaging tsunamis, Simmers said. The relationship between earthquake size and tsunami size isn't quite straightforward, either, according to Brandon Shuck, an assistant professor of geology and geophysics at Louisiana State University. Add that to the near impossibility of knowing just how much an earthquake has caused the sea floor to shift, and it makes predicting a tsunami's size and impact difficult, Shuck said. "Nevertheless, the earthquake did produce a trans-Pacific tsunami ‒ a tsunami that can be detected from traveling all the way across the Pacific Ocean. This is still a huge and notable event, placing it firmly in the top 10 largest earthquakes ever recorded, and the tsunami warnings were all warranted," Shuck said. Could a catastrophic tsunami happen in the US? Hawaii, Alaska and some areas of the West Coast have a long history with tsunamis. Hawaii is one of the most susceptible spots in the world for tsunamis, and, on average, it experiences a destructive tsunami once every 11 years. It's not a matter of if, but when, another one happens there, Simmers said. Hawaii sits in a zone infamous for seismic activity known as the Ring of Fire. Huge, destructive earthquakes are rare, but it only takes one to trigger a tsunami that could have extreme devastation in Hawaii or the West Coast, Simmers said. "There's always that chance," he said. "In theory, it can, and probably will one day. When that is: who knows." In 1946, an 8.6-magnitude earthquake in the Aleutian subduction zone generated a tsunami in the Pacific that reached as far south as Antarctica, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The April 1 tsunami that year devastated the town of Hilo, Hawaii, on the Big Island. More than 150 people were killed when the tsunami, with runup wave heights between 33 and 55 feet, struck. Most of the deaths were in Hilo. A formal tsunami warning system wasn't established until after the 1946 catastrophe, but the Coast Guard issued warnings to many communities. In some communities, though, the warnings had the reverse effect, drawing onlookers to the coast to observe the phenomenon, according to a 1993 account from the NOAA. "This event happened on April 1, April Fool's Day, and some mistook the warning and reports of a tsunami as a hoax," the NOAA report reads. Contributing: Dinah Voyles Pulver
Yahoo
13 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Flash flood threat ahead of dramatic cooldown in the Northeast
While not all locations in the Northeast will experience torrential downpours and strong thunderstorms into Friday, areas that do may receive several inches of rain could have to deal with flash flooding, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. Noticeably cooler and less humid air is expected to arrive, offering relief to residents and visitors exhausted by recent heat. There is a significant amount of moisture in the atmosphere in the Northeast, and that has contributed to flash flooding through the summer, when it has been released in the form of torrential downpours. For parts of the Northeast, a one-two punch as an approaching cool front and a corresponding ripple in the jet stream will produce precipitation in the form of heavy rainfall into Friday and late this week to early next week in the Southeast. The first heavy rain and flash flood threat will be an eastward extension of downpours from the Midwest. This band of downpours is forecast to expand from northern Indiana and southern Michigan to northern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York late Wednesday night to Thursday, before weakening and moving out of the region. At the same time, spotty severe thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the Northeast, but they will not be as widespread as previous severe weather episodes in prior weeks and more recently in the Central states. A flash flood risk will exist along a significant portion of the mid-Atlantic region to southern New England into Friday as the front and jet stream dip begin to join together. This joint effort will unleash a swath of heavy rain. The zone from eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland and northern Delaware to the lower Hudson Valley of New York, including New York City, Connecticut and parts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island is expected to receive 2-4 inches of rain and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches. Rainfall of this intensity can easily overwhelm storm drains and flood city streets, subways and poor drainage areas along highways. Major travel disruptions are possible for both I-95 commutes on Thursday, as well as on Friday morning. It can also lead to rapid rises on small streams and a surge of water on rivers, posing risks to campers near creeks and low-lying areas. A greater concentration of severe thunderstorms packing strong wind gusts is foreseen on Friday from southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey to the Carolinas. As torrential downpours, flash flooding and severe thunderstorms focus on the southeastern corner of the U.S. this weekend, much cooler and less humid air will move into the Northeast, resulting in more comfortable air for many. Energy demands will ease, air conditioners can be turned off, and open windows in urban areas will let in cool air for a the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+ High pressure from central Canada will take control of the weekend in the Northeast in what is usually the muggiest part of the summer. Typical highs range from the 80s to the low 90s, while nighttime lows range from the low 60s to the low 70s this time of the year. However, as the cool air takes root this weekend, daytime highs will range from the 60s in the mountains to the low 80s in many I-95, mid-Atlantic cities. Lows will mainly range from 40s in the mountains to the refreshing 60s in most I-95 cities. A few spots may even dip into the 30s over the coldest mountain spots during the weekend. With the much cooler air heading in, humidity levels will drop significantly, which has been relentless in coastal areas since early June. "The difference in pressure between the high building into the north and a developing area of storminess along the southern Atlantic coast will create a stiff breeze in some coastal areas of New England and the mid-Atlantic this weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek warned. A steady or gusty northeast wind can stir up the surf and lead to a higher risk of rip currents. While astronomical tides are unremarkable this weekend, the persistent onshore breeze can push water levels to 1-2 feet above typical levels and may lead to minor flooding at times of high tide in low-lying areas. Next week, the effects of Canadian high pressure will slowly erode, but Monday and Tuesday should continue to provide cooler and more comfortable conditions for sleep, outdoor activities and general relief from recent humidity. Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Miami Herald
15 hours ago
- Miami Herald
‘Partially paralyzed' man stuck 9 hours in slowly sinking boat, LA rescuers say
A partially paralyzed man spent hours trapped in a 'terrifying' predicament when his boat began sinking in a southeast Louisiana marsh, rescuers say. The discovery was made just after sunset Friday, July 25, in a remote area along the banks of Lake Borgne. 'When a 57-year-old crabber didn't return home from the East Pearl River, his family knew something wasn't right,' the St. Tammany Parish Sheriff's Office wrote in a July 30 Facebook post. 'They told deputies he was partially paralyzed on his left side due to a previous medical condition, and that he hadn't been heard from since 10 a.m. By 5 p.m., he was officially missing.' Multiple agencies joined in the search, starting from the man's 'usual launch point,' officials said. The search ended three hours later, in 'a marshy area near Lake Borgne.' 'What they found was nothing short of terrifying. The man's boat was partially submerged. His motor had failed. His phone had gone underwater. And he was in the water … exhausted, alone, and without any way to call for help,' the sheriff's office said. 'Stranded for nearly nine hours, unable to move freely due to his medical condition, and surrounded by marshland, he was out of options.' The man was pulled from the marsh by Sgt. Chuck White and Deputy John Hrabley with the parish's Marine Division and taken for a medical evaluation, officials said. The man's identity has not been released. He was treated 'for heat-related issues,' then taken home that same night, officials said. Temperatures rose to 90 degrees that day in the parish, AccuWeather reports. 'This is what we do. And on this day, it saved a life,' the sheriff's office said. The situation started when the man's boat malfunctioned, and then his cellphone went 'dead,' the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries reports. Lake Borgne is just east of New Orleans.
UPI
a day ago
- Climate
- UPI
Heat and flood risk to continue in Northeast before cooler air arrives
1 of 3 | Pedestrians cover up from the sun as excessive heat and high temperatures continue in New York City on Tuesday. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo Heat and humidity are once again surging across the Northeast and will continue to do so into the middle of the week before a significant cool push moves into the region, AccuWeather meteorologists say. With the jet stream positioned well to the north, hot and humid conditions are forecast for millions in the Northeast through Wednesday. Daily high temperatures will top out well above historical averages for the end of July. Record highs will also be challenged daily along the Interstate 95 corridor. AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures are likely to surpass the 100-degree Fahrenheit mark in the hottest spots during the afternoon. Nighttime relief will be limited, with temperatures barely getting into the upper 70s in some locations paired with muggy conditions. Risk for severe thunderstorms, flooding to return ahead of refreshing air A more substantial break from the heat and humidity is expected across the Northeast from Friday to Sunday, but not before the threat of severe weather and flooding surges in the region. The same front that is driving the risk of severe weather across the Plains and Midwest into Tuesday night will gradually push south across the Northeast from Wednesday to Friday. Interacting with the hot and mositure-rich air in the region, there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. Flash flooding will be the primary hazard. Drenching thunderstorms could also reduce visibility, pond on roads, and slow travel. There is also a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and lightning strikes. There is increasing concern for heavy rainfall, raising the risk of flash flooding as the front continues to dive southward later in the week. "A stripe of torrential, repeating downpours may develop from northern Ohio to western and central New York from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "This will be dependent on a stripe of energy at the level in the atmosphere where jets cruise at as well as thunderstorm activity right along an advancing cool front." A more broad zone of heavy rain is forecast to unfold from Thursday to Friday farther to the south and east. Tropical moisture will surge in from the south, providing ample moisture for persistent downpours to set up from portions of Tennessee into southern New England. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected from Thursday to Friday, where the most persistent rounds of downpours occur. "The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 8 inches for this event," Sosnowski said. "If rainfall close to that amount is realized, there will be significant flash flooding in areas that approach that intensity." Individuals are urged to have several reliable ways to receive flood-related watches and warnings at all hours. Residents and visitors should make a plan and be aware of the quickest means to get to higher ground should flash flooding occur. "Roads that appear to only have a small amount of water running across them may be deceiving, especially at night when the visibility is reduced," Sosnowski warned. "Six inches to a foot of moving water can cause small vehicles to be pushed along. With 1 to 2 feet of water, larger SUVs can float. At the very least, vehicles can sustain severe water damage." A refreshing change will be in place across the Northeast by Friday evening and on through the weekend. Temperatures will trend below the historical average for the end of July and early August. The historical average highs for Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia are 89 and 87, respectively, for the beginning of August. Forecast highs for the weekend are the low 80s in this zone, but in the 70s over much of the balance of the Northeast. Along with the drop in temperatures, humidity levels will also decrease significantly across the region, creating more comfortable conditions for outdoor activities into the weekend.
