Latest news with #Berkeley
Gizmodo
4 days ago
- Science
- Gizmodo
Scientists Identify a New Glitch in Human Thinking
Good news, everyone! Scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, have coined a new term to describe our brains being dumb. In a recent study, they provide evidence for a distinct but common kind of cognitive bias—one that makes us reluctant to take the easier path in life if it means retracing our steps. The researchers have named the bias the 'doubling-back aversion.' In several experiments, they found that people often refuse to choose a more efficient solution or route if it requires them to double back on the progress already made. The findings suggest that people's subjective fear of adding more to their workload and their hesitance to wipe the slate clean contribute to this bias, the researchers say. 'Participants' aversion to feeling their past efforts were a waste encouraged them to pursue less efficient means,' they wrote in their paper, published this May in Psychological Science. The 12 cognitive biases that prevent you from being rational Psychologists have detailed all sorts of biases related to digging our feet in when faced with important new information. People tend to stick to the status quo in choosing dinner at a favorite restaurant, for example, even when someone recommends a potentially tastier option. There's also the sunk cost fallacy, or the reluctance to veer off a disastrous path and choose another simply because they've spent so much time or resources pursuing it. The researchers argue that their newly named bias is certainly a close cousin to the sunk cost fallacy and similar biases, but that it ultimately describes a unique type of cognitive pitfall. In their paper, they provide the example of someone whose flight from San Francisco to New York becomes massively delayed early on, leaving them stuck in Los Angeles. In one scenario, the traveler can get home three hours earlier than their current itinerary if they accept the airline's offer of a new flight that first stops in Denver; in the second, the person is instead offered a flight that will also shave three hours off, but they'll first have to travel back to San Francisco. Despite both flights saving the same amount of time, people are more likely to refuse the one that requires going back to their earlier destination, the paper explains (some people might even refuse the Denver flight, but that would be an example of the status quo bias and/or sunk cost fallacy at work, they note). To test their hypothesis, the researchers ran four different types of experiments. The experiments collectively involved more than 2,500 adults, some of whom were UC Berkeley students and others who were volunteers recruited through Amazon's Mechanical Turk. In one test, people were asked to walk along different paths in virtual reality; another asked people to recite as many words starting with the same letter as possible. Across the various tests, the researchers found that people routinely exhibited this aversion. This Is What Your Brain Looks Like When You Solve a Problem In one experiment where people had to recite words starting with 'G,' for instance, everyone was asked midway through if they wanted to stay with the same letter or switch to reciting words starting with 'T' (a likely easier letter). In the control condition, this decision was framed as staying on the same task, simply with a new letter, but in the other, people were asked if they wanted to throw out the work they had done so far and start over on a new task. Importantly, the volunteers were also given progress bars for the task, allowing them to see they would perform the same amount of work no matter the choice (though again, 'T' would be easier). About 75% of participants made the choice to switch in the control condition, but only 25% did the same when the switch was presented as needing to double back. 'When I was analyzing these results, I was like, 'Oh, is there a mistake? How can there be such a big difference?'' said lead author Kristine Cho, a behavioral marketing PhD student at UC Berkely's Haas School of Business, in a statement to the Association for Psychological Science, publishers of the study. Other researchers will have to confirm the team's findings, of course. And there are still plenty of questions to answer about this aversion, including how often we fall for it and whether it's more likely to happen in some scenarios than others. But for now, it's oddly comforting to know that there's another thing I can possibly blame for my occasional stubbornness to take the faster subway train home.
Globe and Mail
4 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
How the new policy elite have caricatured the dismal science
Kevin Yin is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail and an economics doctoral student at the University of California, Berkeley. Being an economist in 2025 feels a bit like being Galileo under the Pope. Now that Donald Trump has fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and nominated loyalists to the Federal Reserve Board, those studying economics have been left exasperated. And while a somewhat caricatured version of the dismal science has been criticized by other social scientists for decades, only recently has the criticism become more than an ivory tower feud, with far less informed malcontents and far more dire consequences for people's welfare. Most of us have heard, or even uttered, the standard clichés about economics. Economists are focused on 'abstract models built on unreality,' often 'mistake [...] elegance for truth' and are swayed by simplistic assumptions such as perfectly competitive markets or infinitely forward-looking and hyper-rational agents. In this vein, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro has called economists 'damn fools' who 'need to get out more often.' The current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and nominee to the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, has argued that economists assume away trade deficits and thus cannot grapple with their implications. Oren Cass, the founder of a think tank, suggested recently that our model of comparative advantage has 'ceased to function.' To be sure, some of these critiques touch on genuine issues that leading researchers would be sympathetic to. And individual economists can certainly fall victim to any of these traps of dogma. But the 18th-century chalk-and-blackboard version of economic theory that protectionists have been criticizing lately would be largely unrecognizable to most frontier researchers. And the notion that people who spend their lives on these issues have not questioned the competitiveness of markets or the rationality of decision-makers is at odds with decades of study and debate. Opinion: A scary chart shows why diminished Fed independence may outlast this administration Opinion: As war rages, the world economy confronts a ghost of ages past These are tired tropes, first and foremost because much of modern economic research is empirical, concerned with making robust causal inferences from data. And while our understanding is constantly evolving, there is a great deal of empirical research that disciplines our views on the impacts of policy. On trade, for example, there is substantial evidence that it lowers the cost of living for consumers, improves production capacity via access to better intermediate inputs and can spur innovation by disincentivizing low-tech investment. Perhaps more subtly, critics have simply not understood the purpose of, or the process behind, the mathematical models they loathe. All arguments are models – including those made by protectionists and heterodox thinkers. The only difference is that mathematical models can guarantee logical validity (but not necessarily soundness) while verbal arguments cannot. This does not mean the mathematical models are correct, since underlying assumptions can still be false in critical ways, but it does constrain researchers to say something internally consistent. The claim that tariffs could incentivize manufacturers to relocate their production back to the U.S. is itself a simple model of the world – one that, when written down, would be guilty of all the same sins of assumption and more. This is not mere academic posturing – U.S. policy is currently being defended with reference to such oversimplifications. In his manifesto, Mr. Miran himself cites a paper by Andrés Rodriguez-Clare of UC Berkeley and Arnaud Costinot of MIT to argue that the optimal tariff could be as high as 20 per cent, because the total gains in tax revenue could outweigh the losses to consumers. Profs. Rodriguez-Clare and Costinot had to point out in an op-ed that this was mostly a pedagogical exercise, that it abstracts away from any trade retaliation and that they themselves do not support tariffs for this reason. In this case, it was the protectionists taking models too seriously, and the authors of those models being cautious. The caricaturing problem is somewhat endemic to the nature of what economics asks; the logic of these issues is often subtle, and words do not suffice. However, the sidelining of expertise is also partly the field's own fault for settling too comfortably into its 'trust us' approach on policy issues, instead of recognizing that finding an answer and communicating it are entirely separate skills. Economists are quick to accuse others of failing to understand, but slower to take up the hard work of helping the general public reach that understanding. We would benefit from a dose of humility, acknowledging our own role, however minute, in allowing this confusion to fester. But this is a digression. Whatever the flaws in conducting and communicating economic research, a vast and rigorous literature still shows that trade is good for the most part, that central banks need to be independent and that deficits must be paid by future generations. Policy makers and pundits can choose to ignore decades of research on these topics, but for the people and businesses who will suffer the consequences, the laws of economics will be anything but abstract.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bolt Projects Announces $4.25 Million Private Placement
Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules BERKELEY, Calif., August 14, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bolt Projects Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: BSLK) ("Bolt Projects" or the "Company"), a developer of biomaterials for the beauty and personal care industry, today announced that it has entered into definitive agreements for the purchase and sale of an aggregate of 913,979 shares of common stock (or pre-funded warrants in lieu thereof) at a purchase price of $4.65 per share of common stock (or per pre-funded warrant in lieu thereof, less the nominal exercise price of $0.0001 per share) in a private placement priced at-the-market under Nasdaq rules. The private placement is expected to close on or about August 15, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. Rodman & Renshaw LLC is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The gross proceeds from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.25 million, prior to deducting placement agent's fees and other offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for working capital and other general corporate purposes. The securities described above are being offered in a private placement under Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and/or Regulation D promulgated thereunder and, along with the shares of common stock underlying the pre-funded warrants, have not been registered under the Securities Act, or applicable state securities laws. Accordingly, the securities issued in the private placement and shares of common stock underlying the pre-funded warrants may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an effective registration statement or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act and such applicable state securities laws. Pursuant to a registration rights agreement with investors, the Company has agreed to file a resale registration statement covering the securities described above. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or other jurisdiction. About Bolt Projects Holdings Bolt Projects develops and produces innovative biomaterials for the beauty and personal care industry. The Company is built on biomaterials platforms that aim to disrupt and transform high-volume consumer goods industries. Bolt Projects is a pioneer in the consumer biomaterials space. The Company's Vegan Silk Technology Platform produces b-silk and other offerings for the beauty and personal care industry that are fully vegan and biodegradable. These versatile ingredients have been on the market since 2019. Its intellectual property portfolio is anchored by 77 granted patents and 118 pending patent applications. Forward-looking Statements This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"). All statements other than statements of historical facts contained in this communication, including, without limitation, statements regarding: statements related to the completion of the offering, the satisfaction of customary closing conditions related to the offering, and the intended use of proceeds therefrom. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such as "anticipate," "believe," "budget," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," "intend," "may," "might," "plan," "possible," "potential," "predict," "project," "should," "strive," "will" or the negatives of these terms or variations of them or similar terminology although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and actual results or events may differ materially from those projected or implied in those statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to: market and other conditions, substantial doubt as to the Company's ability to continue as a going concern; the Company's history of net losses and negative cash flows; the Company's ability to generate sufficient cash to service its debt; the Company's ability to meet the continued listing requirements of Nasdaq and remain listed on a national stock exchange; the Company's ability to execute its business plan and adequately control its expenses or raise additional capital on favorable terms, if at all; the Company's dependence on sales of b-silk™ and xl-silk™ products from its Vegan Silk Technology Platform; the Company's reliance on a single or limited manufacturing partners and manufacturing facilities; reliance on manufacturing partners in regions that could be impacted by U.S. trade policy, including renegotiating or terminating existing trade agreements and leveraging tariffs; costs of and availability for its Vegan technology Platform products that are out of the Company's control; the Company's reliance on a single manufacturing partner and manufacturing facility for the production of its Vegan Silk Technology Platform product; pricing and availability for the Company's Vegan Silk Technology Platform products; market acceptance of from consumer product companies; the Company's ability to protect adequately its patents and other intellectual property assets; government regulations and private party actions relating to the marketing and advertising of cosmetic products that include the Company's Vegan Silk Technology Platform products or other products the Company develops; and the other risks and uncertainties discussed under the caption "Risk Factors" included in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended, December 31, 2024, as such factors may be updated from time to time in its other filings with the SEC, and accessible on the SEC's website at and the Investors section of the Company's website at www. The Company cautions you against placing undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect current beliefs and are based on information currently available as of the date a forward-looking statement is made. Forward-looking statements set forth herein speak only as of the date they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to revise forward-looking statements to reflect future events, changes in circumstances, or changes in beliefs, except as otherwise required by law. View source version on Contacts For Bolt Projects Holdings Media Inquiries: press@ For Bolt Projects Holdings Investor Inquiries: investors@
Forbes
5 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Meet The Tech Billionaire Giving Students A Boost
This is a published version of Forbes' Careers Newsletter. Click here to subscribe and get it in your inbox every Tuesday. It's not often that college undergraduates are taught by tech billionaires. But this fall, computer science students at UC Berkeley will have the option to take a class on operating systems and system programming with Professor Ion Stoica, the billionaire cofounder of four startups, including unicorns Databricks and Anyscale—the latter of which he started with former students. It's Stoica's emphasis on real-life applications that has made him popular amongst Berkeley students, reports Forbes' Martina Di Licosa, and his emphasis on private funding helps, too. While the federal government is cutting down on research funding, Stoica's lab has not suffered, thanks to being privately funded by big tech companies, including Google and IBM. Still, he believes universities are the key to solving problems practically. 'Everyone can use [university research]. Compare this with a company,' Stoica tells Forbes. 'They are not going to publish… They are not going to open-source their best systems.' Both Databricks' Spark and Anyscale's Ray started as open-source projects and are available to the public to this day. Stoica, worth $2.5 billion, is now chairing a task force to address the widespread research cuts, helping both his students and fellow professors seek out private funding to fill in the gaps left by the government. It's been helpful for the entrepreneurs in his class who are seeking venture capital funding. And his connections in the industry have been valuable to graduating students, especially in today's tough tech job landscape. Happy reading, and hope you have a lovely week! WORK SMARTER Practical insights and advice from Forbes staff and contributors to help you succeed in your job, accelerate your career and lead smarter. Managers: These are the three ChatGPT prompts you should be using. Don't let the increased flexibility of remote work prevent you from standing out. Participating in an office fantasy football league this year? Here's how to draft the perfect team. REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: Why Cognizant Decided To Launch A Weeks-Long Vibe Coding Event Employees want more upskilling opportunities. Employers want their workforces to use AI. Cognizant decided to take a stab at pleasing both in the last two weeks, recruiting its 330,000 workers to join a 'vibe coding' week to test out the technology with low stakes. I spoke with Cognizant's CTO Babak Hodjat to speak about the company's effort. Ever participated in a company-wide hackathon? Cognizant wants all its employees to do so. The information and technology consultant launched its vibe-coding event last week to encourage employees to 'play around' with vibe coding software, partnering with almost all major vibe coding companies, including Lovable, Windsurf, Google's Gemini Code Assist and Github Copilot. 'The number one priority for us was upskilling, training, educating and helping nurture our employee base in adopting vibe coding,' says Hodjat. Employees across all departments have already participated, with an average of 20,000 employees a day experimenting with the software. As of Monday, nearly 20,000 projects had already been submitted from employees across a number of departments, including human resources, marketing and IT. Beyond the productivity gains Cognizant is piloting with this program, Hodjat is really focusing on employee education, a win that goes beyond their engagement and satisfaction scores. It's a selling point to their clients: Cognizant employees not only know their customers, but also know how to use AI to best serve their needs. 'In many cases, we know our clients better than the clients know themselves because we've built their data systems, their processes. We know them holistically, with an added value on top of the AI,' he adds. It's why Cognizant partnered with a number of different vibe coding companies. 'If a client comes in and says, 'Hey, I want that software,' we can say we've got it.' Not all the projects submitted by the end of the Vibe Coding week will result in improving actual systems. A number of privacy restrictions—including a strict no-client data rule—restrict the realistic results of the projects submitted, especially since the hackathon-esque nature of the week was designed to allow employees to play around and experiment with different software systems and requests, more so than improve productivity. That analysis will come by the end of the week. 'Part of this whole exercise is for us to actually then look at what is coming out of it,' says Hodjat, including preferences between the different providers. TOUCH BASE News from the world of work. 'Fake it 'till you make it' will only get you so far in corporate America. Entrepreneur Daniella Pierson cozied up to everyone from designer Diane von Furstenberg to actor Selena Gomez, touting millions in net-worth and growing subscriber numbers for her lifestyle newsletter The Newsette. But a new Forbes investigation found that her so-called business empire was just 'smoke and mirrors,' with a reputation built on Pierson's exaggerations and self-promotion. Fear of superintelligent AI is driving a number of Harvard and MIT students to drop out of the prestigious institutions, reports Forbes' Victoria Feng. Some are scared that generative AI will take away many entry-level roles, while others are more worried about the technology's potential devastating effects on humanity. But their response is the same: leave school and start pursuing a career before it's too late. U.S. manufacturing contracted at its fastest pace in nine months in July, as overall hiring slowed, according to Bloomberg. While President Donald Trump has made reshoring American jobs a key part of his administration's goals, companies are still weary of hiring amid tariff negotiations. Some subindustries, however, did grow—most notably data center construction. As federal employees struggle to find jobs after taking Trump's deferred resignation offer or being fired, one segment may find ample employment in the private sector: tax lawyers. Tax law firms are busier than ever, reports Forbes' Kelly Phillips Erb, especially in the areas of employment, crypto and state and local taxes. Former federal lawyers could be the perfect next hire for a number of firms. A majority of U.S. employers are not planning on increasing their salary budgets for next year, according to Payscale's latest pay report, showing that a cooling labor market and economic jitters will likely continue to keep wage growth relatively flat. NUMBER TO NOTE 9-9-6 VIDEO How The South Park Creators Became Billionaires QUIZ The head of which government agency was recently ousted just weeks after being officially sworn in? A. IRS B. CDC C. Environmental Protection Agency D. Bureau of Labor Statistics Check if you got it right here.
Forbes
5 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Rigetti Computing Stock Has Soared Over 1,000% In A Year. Is Now The Time To Buy?
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has captured Wall Street's attention with an explosive 1,000% price surge over the past year, transforming from a penny stock into a multi-billion-dollar quantum computing darling. The Berkeley-based company's shares have added approximately $1.7 billion in market cap in just the last month alone, driven by groundbreaking technological achievements and potential government partnerships. This meteoric rise raises critical questions for investors: Is Rigetti's quantum computing breakthrough the real deal, or are we witnessing another speculative bubble in emerging technology? This analysis examines the company's recent catalysts, financial health, and long-term prospects to help determine whether now represents a buying opportunity or a cautionary tale. Understanding Rigetti Computing Rigetti Computing operates as a full-stack quantum computing company, developing both the hardware and software necessary to build practical quantum systems. Founded with the mission of making quantum computing accessible and commercially viable, the company focuses on superconducting qubit quantum processors—a leading approach in the race to achieve quantum advantage over classical computers. The company's core innovation lies in its proprietary chiplet architecture, designed to enable scaling multi-chip quantum systems beyond the limitations of single-chip approaches. This technology could prove crucial as the industry moves toward building quantum computers with thousands or millions of qubits, the basic units of quantum information. Rigetti's integrated approach spans from chip fabrication to cloud-based quantum computing services, positioning it as a comprehensive quantum solutions provider. What Drove RGTI Stock's 1,000% Price Rally? Three primary catalysts have fueled Rigetti's extraordinary stock performance: breakthrough technological achievements, strategic government partnerships and evolving market sentiment around quantum computing's commercial potential. Understanding these drivers helps explain both the opportunity and the risks inherent in this volatile stock. The most significant catalyst came in July 2025 when Rigetti announced achieving 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its 36-qubit quantum system. This represents a dramatic improvement in quantum computing reliability, as gate fidelity measures how accurately quantum operations can be performed—a critical metric for building useful quantum computers. High fidelity rates are essential for quantum error correction, which enables complex calculations that could eventually surpass classical computers. This breakthrough positions Rigetti among the leaders in quantum computing performance, potentially accelerating the timeline for commercially viable quantum applications. The achievement demonstrates that Rigetti's superconducting approach and chiplet architecture are delivering measurable progress toward the company's ultimate goal of quantum advantage in real-world applications. Rigetti's technological progress has opened doors to lucrative government contracts, particularly through DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). The company appears well-positioned to secure Phase A funding worth approximately $1 million, likely splitting proceeds with partner Riverlane. While Phase A represents relatively modest funding, it could lead to much larger Phase 2 contracts if Rigetti continues demonstrating superior performance. Government partnerships validate Rigetti's technology while providing crucial revenue streams for a company still in the early stages of commercialization. These relationships also offer strategic advantages, including access to cutting-edge research, priority consideration for future contracts and credibility that attracts private sector customers and investors. However, Rigetti's recent financial performance tells a more complex story. Q2 2025 revenue of $1.8 million represented a 41% year-over-year decline, missing consensus expectations of $1.9 million. The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.13 per share, larger than the expected $0.05 loss. These results highlight the challenge of building sustainable revenue while investing heavily in research and development. Despite disappointing quarterly results, investors appear focused on Rigetti's long-term potential rather than near-term profitability. The company's grant opportunities and government partnerships suggest future revenue growth, though the timing and magnitude remain uncertain. This disconnect between current financials and future expectations explains much of the stock's volatility. Examining Rigetti Computing's Financial Performance Rigetti's financial profile reflects a typical early-stage technology company burning cash to fund ambitious research goals. With a current market capitalization of approximately $5.23 billion and trailing twelve-month earnings per share of negative $0.80, traditional valuation metrics offer limited insight. The company operates without positive earnings, making price-to-earnings ratios meaningless and forcing investors to evaluate potential rather than performance. The company's balance sheet shows both strengths and concerns. Rigetti maintains roughly 34 months of cash runway following a recent $350 million at-the-market share offering, providing sufficient resources to execute its development roadmap without immediate bankruptcy risk. However, this funding came at a significant cost to existing shareholders, as shares outstanding have nearly doubled over the past year, creating substantial dilution. Rigetti's beta of 1.45 indicates higher volatility than the broader market, reflecting both the speculative nature of quantum computing investments and the company's small size relative to established technology giants. This volatility creates both opportunities and risks for investors comfortable with substantial price swings driven by technological developments, partnership announcements, and broader market sentiment toward emerging technologies. Valuation Analysis: Is Rigetti Computing Overvalued Or Undervalued? At current levels, Rigetti trades at 24-25 times book value, well above its historical range of 16-18 times and significantly higher than most technology peers. This premium valuation reflects extreme optimism about quantum computing's commercial potential and Rigetti's competitive position within the industry. However, such multiples leave little room for disappointment and suggest significant downside risk if the company fails to meet elevated expectations. The valuation challenge lies in quantum computing's uncertain timeline for widespread commercial adoption. While Rigetti's technological achievements are impressive, translating laboratory breakthroughs into profitable business applications remains years away for the entire industry. Current prices appear to assume not just success, but exceptional success in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving market. Traditional valuation models struggle with companies like Rigetti, where future potential vastly exceeds current financial performance. Investors must weigh the transformative potential of quantum computing against the risks of technological setbacks, competitive pressure and extended development timelines that could delay or prevent commercial success. Risks And Challenges To Know Despite its recent success, Rigetti faces significant risks that could derail its growth trajectory and punish investors who buy at current elevated levels. Understanding these challenges is crucial for making informed investment decisions in this volatile and speculative sector. Quantum computing stocks exhibit extreme price volatility as investors react to every technological development, partnership announcement and competitive threat. Rigetti's 52-week trading range from $0.66 to $21.42 illustrates this volatility, with prices capable of dramatic swings based on limited new information. The current 20% short interest suggests significant skepticism among professional investors, creating potential for both short squeezes and rapid declines. This volatility reflects the difficulty of valuing companies developing technologies with uncertain commercial timelines and competitive dynamics. Small developments can trigger large price movements, making it challenging for investors to distinguish between genuine progress and temporary market enthusiasm. The recent surge, based partly on "profitability rumors" rather than actual earnings growth, exemplifies how speculation can drive prices beyond fundamental justification. While Rigetti's gate fidelity achievement represents genuine progress, significant technical hurdles remain before quantum computers can solve commercially valuable problems better than classical systems. Scaling from 36 qubits to the thousands or millions required for quantum advantage presents enormous engineering challenges, and competitors may develop alternative approaches that prove superior. The quantum computing industry remains in its infancy, with fundamental questions about which technological approaches will ultimately succeed. Rigetti's superconducting qubit approach faces competition from trapped ion, photonic and other quantum computing methods, each with distinct advantages and limitations. Technological obsolescence represents a constant risk in such a rapidly evolving field. Rigetti competes against technology giants with vastly superior resources, including IBM, Google, Amazon and Microsoft. These companies can invest billions in quantum research while absorbing losses that would bankrupt smaller competitors. Their existing cloud computing infrastructure and enterprise relationships provide significant competitive advantages in commercializing quantum technologies. The competitive landscape creates pressure for Rigetti to continuously innovate while operating with limited resources compared to its largest rivals. Success requires not just technological excellence but also effective go-to-market strategies, strategic partnerships and efficient capital allocation to compete against better-funded competitors with more profound technical expertise and broader market reach. Analyst Opinions And Market Sentiment Professional analyst coverage of Rigetti reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding quantum computing investments. The company's composite rating of 77 out of 99 from Investor's Business Daily suggests solid but not exceptional prospects, falling short of the 90+ ratings typically associated with top growth stocks. This rating indicates analysts recognize Rigetti's potential while remaining cautious about execution risks and competitive challenges. Institutional sentiment appears more positive, with an accumulation/distribution rating of A indicating heavy institutional buying over the past 13 weeks. Large investors seem willing to bet on Rigetti's long-term potential despite near-term financial challenges, though institutional interest doesn't guarantee future performance. The disconnect between professional analyst caution and institutional accumulation reflects the difficulty of valuing early-stage quantum computing companies. Market sentiment remains highly volatile and news-driven, with prices responding dramatically to technological announcements, partnership developments and competitive threats. This creates both opportunities for investors who can time market movements and risks for those caught in sudden reversals. The speculative nature of quantum computing investments means sentiment can shift rapidly based on limited new information. What Are Rigetti Computing's Long-Term Price Targets? Analyst price targets for Rigetti average around $16.33, roughly in line with current trading levels and suggesting limited upside from professional forecasters. However, these targets reflect significant uncertainty about quantum computing's commercial timeline and Rigetti's competitive position, making them less reliable than targets for more established companies with predictable cash flows. Long-term price potential depends heavily on quantum computing adoption rates and Rigetti's market share within the industry. If quantum computers achieve widespread commercial use within the next decade and Rigetti maintains a leadership position, current prices could prove conservative. Conversely, delayed adoption, technological setbacks, or market share losses could result in substantial price declines from current levels. The wide range of possible outcomes makes traditional price targeting less meaningful for Rigetti than for established companies. Instead, investors should focus on milestone achievements, competitive positioning and cash runway sustainability when evaluating long-term prospects. Success will likely come in stages, with technological breakthroughs, partnership wins and market adoption creating value over time rather than through steady, predictable growth. Is Now A Good Time To Buy Rigetti Computing? The decision to buy Rigetti at current levels depends heavily on individual risk tolerance and investment timeline. Conservative investors should likely avoid the stock given its speculative nature, extreme valuation and significant dilution risks. The company's 34-month cash runway provides some downside protection, but continued equity offerings could substantially dilute existing shareholders before commercial success arrives. Aggressive growth investors comfortable with substantial volatility might consider small positions if they believe in quantum computing's transformative potential and Rigetti's competitive advantages. However, such investments should represent only a small percentage of overall portfolios, given the high probability of substantial losses if quantum computing adoption takes longer than expected or competitors gain market share advantages. Bottom Line Rigetti Computing's 1,000% stock surge reflects both genuine technological progress and speculative enthusiasm about quantum computing's future. The company's 99.5% gate fidelity achievement represents real advancement, while DARPA partnerships provide validation and potential revenue streams. However, extreme valuation multiples, declining revenue and heavy dilution create significant risks. Success requires not just continued technological leadership but also successful commercialization in a highly competitive market. Investors should approach Rigetti as a high-risk, high-reward speculation rather than a traditional growth investment, sizing positions appropriately for their risk tolerance and investment timeline.
