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ABC News
08-08-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Expert critical of Israel's plan to take over Gaza City
Israel's Security Cabinet has approved a plan for military take over Gaza City in a major escalation of Israel's war on Gaza. Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former US State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator in Democratic and Republican administrations. He says the plan is not tethered to the reality on the ground in Gaza.
ABC News
08-08-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
80 years since Hiroshima the nuclear threat is on the rise
Japan has marked 80 years since the Americans dropped 'Little Boy' on the city of Hiroshima which killed 80,000 and changed global power dynamics forever. Nuclear expert Ankit Panda says we have entered a new threat level, and policies of nuclear deterrence are no longer enough to deal with the increasing prospect of nuclear escalation. GUEST: Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon, published by Polity. Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon, published by Polity. PRODUCER: Catherine Zengerer *This program first appeared on 12 March 2025
Time of India
07-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India in crosshairs: Trump's Russia oil tariffs- How it could make China great again
As Trump puts pressure on its allies, Xi Jinping has stepped in quickly to take advantage of the changing landscape. President Donald Trump has hit India with a 50% tariff on its exports to the US, punishing New Delhi for continuing to buy Russian crude. He accuses India of 'funding Russia's war machine' and vows more penalties if Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn't halt oil imports from Moscow. This follows Trump's prior 25% tariff on Indian goods. A bill seeking to levy up to 500% tariffs on any country buying Russian oil is also advancing through Congress. Why it matters Trump's pressure could unravel 25 years of US-India strategic progress - and shift global oil flows toward China. India is America's biggest democratic partner in Asia, a linchpin in the Quad (with Japan and Australia), and a potential counterweight to China's rise. But Trump's tariff barrage risks alienating New Delhi and pushing it closer to Russia and China - the very actors US policy seeks to isolate. The irony? Trump hasn't penalized China, the largest buyer of Russian crude, which continues to import 2 million barrels/day - roughly the same as India. By singling out India, the US hands Beijing a golden opportunity: to snap up discounted Russian oil, grow its energy security, and tighten Eurasian partnerships. 'India is now in a trap: because of Trump's pressure, Modi will reduce India's oil purchases from Russia, but he cannot publicly admit to doing so for fear of looking like he's surrendering to Trump's blackmail,' said Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Endowment. The target is Russia. The collateral damage is India. And the strategic beneficiary, many analysts agree, is China. The big picture India pivoted to Russia in 2022 when the West shunned Moscow's oil after the Ukraine invasion. Russian crude - particularly the heavy, sulfurous Urals blend - was offered at steep discounts, and India pounced. From near-zero in 2021, India now imports nearly 2 million barrels/day from Russia-about 35–40% of its total crude imports, according to the Economist. This move reduced India's oil import bill, helped keep inflation under control, and made local refiners immensely profitable. In a country still reliant on imported energy to power its growth, it wasn't just shrewd-it was necessary. Indian refiners convert it into diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline - then export those products globally at market prices. This 'arbitrage model' has allowed India to cut its import bill while fueling record-high profits for domestic refiners. Until now, Washington and Brussels looked the other way. India's Russia ties were chalked up to 'strategic autonomy.' That tolerance is gone. For three years, Western allies turned a blind eye. Now, Trump wants to flip the switch. 'The White House is serious about pressuring India to go to zero,' one source told the Economist, suggesting that Washington may not stop at tariffs. It's already considering cutting off any port, bank, or shipping company that facilitates India's Russian oil deals from the US financial system. 'Ready to pay huge price' However, PM Modi has shown no appetite for retreat. At a national agricultural conference in New Delhi on August 7, Modi declared: 'India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, dairy farmers and fishermen… I am ready to personally pay the huge price.' The statement, which was widely interpreted as a response to Trump's trade demands, reinforces Modi's unwillingness to be seen as capitulating to Washington. This isn't mere bravado. Trump's tariffs are already biting. According to Bloomberg Economics, if new levies hit Indian electronics and pharmaceuticals-currently temporarily exempt-the impact could slice 1.1% off India's GDP. India's $86.5 billion in exports to the U.S. are now at risk, making it one of the most heavily sanctioned major economies in American trade policy-tied only with China. Trump's unpredictable diplomacy has put even India's allies in Washington on edge. 'We are better off together than apart,' Atul Keshap, a former US diplomat and current head of the US-India Business Council, told The New York Times. 'The partnership forged by our elected leaders over the past 25 years is worth preserving.' But that partnership, many fear, is unraveling. And the timing could not be worse. Between the lines: India's strategic drift toward Beijing Modi is now expected to visit China later this month for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, his first trip there in seven years. Russian President Vladimir Putin will be in attendance. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi is reportedly preparing a bilateral agenda for talks between Modi and Xi Jinping. This is not just symbolic diplomacy. Analysts warn that US- India ties are at their lowest point since Washington sanctioned New Delhi for its nuclear tests in 1998. Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment called it 'a needless crisis' driven by Trump's personal political needs. Meanwhile, Putin has already met Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff five times this year, including a three-hour meeting just as Trump announced the tariffs. The goal: explore a potential 'grand bargain' to end the war in Ukraine. As NYT reported, Trump's calculus appears clear-force Russia to negotiate by isolating its buyers. But in turning up the heat on India, he risks pushing the world's largest democracy into tighter alignment with Beijing and Moscow. Indeed, one senior Indian official told Reuters that 'India will gradually repair ties with the US,' but is now exploring deeper engagement with Russia, China, and the BRICS bloc. China's silent coup in the oil market As India scrambles to find alternatives to Russian crude, China is doing the opposite: it's quietly stockpiling. Chinese refiners have increased their Russian orders in recent months, according to the Economist, anticipating this exact moment. With Indian refiners likely to scale back, the competition for discounted Russian barrels will vanish-and China will reap the benefits. 'Being less exposed to American sanctions, [Chinese refiners] would also continue to buy Russian crude-at a growing discount,' the Economist noted. This is not just about cheaper oil. It's a geopolitical opening. Beijing is watching two of its regional rivals-Washington and New Delhi-clash, while it quietly tightens its grip on Russia's most valuable export. That, in essence, is Trump's tariff paradox: in punishing India for its Russian oil ties, he may be making China stronger. In Asia Times, Y Tony Yang called it 'a troubling paradox,' where 'rather than weakening China's position, the tariffs appear to be generating economic headwinds at home, straining key alliances, and creating new opportunities for Beijing to expand its global influence.' In trying to punish one friend, Trump may be rewarding two foes. The American cost While the White House boasts of growing tariff revenues-monthly collections tripled to $29 billion by July 2025, according to Asia Times-the economic consequences are growing. Yale's Budget Lab estimates that Trump's tariffs will cost American households an average of $2,400 this year. US GDP growth has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.8% last year. Manufacturing job growth has stalled. In California alone, over 64,000 jobs in trade and logistics are at risk, and the Port of Los Angeles is operating at 70% capacity. At the strategic level, the consequences are graver. Allies like Japan and South Korea were granted tariff relief after tense negotiations. Only India faces the full 50% levy. 'It's not pressure-it's punishment,' said one South Korean trade analyst, quoted in Asia Times. 'It creates space for China.' And China is wasting no time. It's expanded its Belt and Road infrastructure deals in Africa and Latin America and now leads the global renewable energy race. In 2024, China added 429 gigawatts of new generation capacity-86% from renewables-while America focused on tariff enforcement. A self-inflicted wound Trump's strategy hinges on forcing India's hand in hopes of ending a war. But it may backfire in another. India is not just a buyer of Russian oil; it's a partner in the Indo-Pacific, a member of the Quad, a bulwark against Chinese regional dominance. Weakening that partnership might win a short-term tactical victory-but at the risk of losing the long game. The irony is bitter. Trump once called India's economy 'dead.' But it is the fastest-growing large economy in the world. Alienating it with tariffs while ignoring China's larger infractions sends a message that US policy is less about fairness and more about favoritism. Ajay Srivastava, a former trade official at the Global Trade Research Initiative, a New Delhi-based think tank, told the NYT: "US action 'will push India to reconsider its strategic alignment, deepening ties with Russia, China and many other countries.' Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays .
India.com
07-08-2025
- Business
- India.com
From fighter jets to bullets..., Trump goes soft on China after Beijing threatens to....
From fighter jets to bullets..., Trump goes soft on China after Beijing threatens to.... US President Donald Trump has been making strong and aggressive statements about India, but when it comes to China, he seems unusually quiet. During his election campaign, Trump had made harsh remarks against China and used that to build support. However, after about six months in office, it now seems like he is backing down in front of Chinese President Xi Jinping. While Trump is attacking India with strong words and high tariffs, many experts feel he is acting soft with China. This is surprising because, for the past 25 years, the U.S. has been building close ties with India to counter China's growing power. Many American think tanks believe that China is the biggest challenge to US global leadership and not India. Expert warns, Trump undoing decades of progress In an article for the Carnegie Endowment, Evan A. Feigenbaum, a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State who worked on India-U.S. relations, warned that Trump's approach could cause long-term harm. He wrote, 'After more than two decades of bipartisan efforts to strengthen India-U.S. ties including progress made during Trump's first term, the president now seems to be tearing down what took years to build.' Recently, Trump imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Indian exports, and now he is threatening to raise tariffs on Indian pharmaceutical exports to 250 per cent. How is Trump damaging US-India relations? In a recent interview with CNBC, Donald Trump said he plans to slowly increase tariffs on medicines imported from India. He stated: 'We'll start with a small tariff on pharmaceuticals, but within a year or a year and a half, it will go up to 150 per cent, and eventually to 250 per cent, because we want those medicines to be made in the U.S.' He also warned that he might announce new tariffs on India within the next 24 hours. India targeted despite lower trade deficit than China Looking at trade numbers, it's clear that the US has a much bigger trade deficit with China than with India. In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit with China was USD 295 billion, While the deficit with India was only USD 46 billion. Even in terms of buying Russian oil, coal, and gas, China imports much more than India. Still, Trump's policies are hitting India harder, while China still enjoys getting trade leniency. Europe and China buy more from Russia Despite strong political statements from Europe about not supporting Russian energy, the European Union remains the biggest buyer of Russian LNG (liquefied natural gas). According to CERA data: The EU bought 51 per cent of Russia's LNG exports and China bought 21 per cent, and Japan 18 per cent. For Russian pipeline gas, the EU bought 37 per cent, followed by China (30 per cent) and Turkey (27 per cent). But even with these facts, Trump seems to single out India as the main culprit. Why has Donald Trump suddenly gone soft on China? According to The Wall Street Journal , China has sharply reduced the export of rare earth minerals to the U.S. and it's having a serious impact on America's defense production. From fighter jets to bullets, the U.S. weapons industry is facing major disruptions. China strikes back after tariffs Earlier this year, when Trump imposed a 145 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, Beijing retaliated by cutting off the supply of rare earth elements. These minerals are crucial for making advanced military equipment, including: Fighter jets Missiles Drones High-tech electronics This move hit the U.S. hard. Within weeks, Trump lowered the tariff back to 30 per cent, as American defense manufacturers struggled to keep up production. US running out of defence supplies Leonardo DRS, a major U.S. defense contractor, revealed it only has a limited 'security stock' of germanium left. Defense software company Govini warned that over 80,000 components in U.S. military systems depend on materials supplied by China. Why Trump is silent on China This supply crisis explains why Trump, who once campaigned on being tough on China, is now hesitant to criticize Beijing. Even though he had promised to hold China accountable, the reality is that America's military might depends on Chinese materials. And that's why, today, Trump appears unusually soft when it comes to China, choosing silence over confrontation, even as he turns up the heat on India.
Yahoo
03-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China is betting on a real-world use of AI to challenge U.S. control
SHANGHAI - As the United States and China vie for control over the future of artificial intelligence, Beijing has embarked on an all-out drive to transform the technology from a remote concept to a newfangled reality, with applications on factory floors and in hospitals and government offices. China does not have access to the most advanced chips required to power cutting-edge models due to restrictions from Washington and is still largely playing catch-up with Silicon Valley giants like OpenAI. But experts say Beijing is pursuing an alternative playbook in an attempt to bridge the gap: aggressively pushing for the adoption of AI across the government and private sector. (The Washington Post has a content partnership with OpenAI.) Subscribe to The Post Most newsletter for the most important and interesting stories from The Washington Post. 'In China, there's definitely stronger government support for applications and a clear mandate from the central government to diffuse the technology through society,' said Scott Singer, an expert on China's AI sector at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. By contrast, the U.S. has been more focused on developing the most advanced AI models while 'the application layer has been totally ignored,' he said. China's push was on full display in Shanghai at its World Artificial Intelligence Conference, which ran until Tuesday. Themed 'Global Solidarity in the AI Era,' the expo is one part of Beijing's bid to establish itself as a responsible AI leader for the international community. This pitch was bolstered by the presence of international heavyweights like Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, and Geoffrey Hinton, a renowned AI researcher often called the 'Godfather of AI.' During the event, Beijing announced an international organization for AI regulation and a 13-point action plan aimed at fostering global cooperation to ensure the technology's beneficial and responsible development. 'China attaches great importance to global AI governance,' Li Qiang, China's premier, said at the opening ceremony on Saturday. It 'is willing to share its AI development experience and technological products to help countries around the world - especially those in the Global South,' he said, according to an official readout. Just last week, President Donald Trump announced a competing plan in a bid to boost American AI competitiveness by reducing regulation and promoting global exports of U.S. AI technology. Washington has moved in recent years to restrict China's access to chips necessary for AI development, in part due to concerns about potential military applications of such models and degrading U.S. tech leadership. The Trump administration's approach to chip policy, however, has been mixed. Earlier this month, the White House reversed a previous ban on specific AI chips made by U.S. tech giant Nvidia being exported to China. This shift occurred amid trade negotiations between the world's two largest economies, which have been locked in an escalating tariff and export control war since Trump returned to the Oval Office earlier this year. There was nothing but excitement about AI in the vast expo center in Shanghai's skyscraper-rich Pudong district, where crowds entered gates controlled by facial recognition. Inside, thousands of attendees listened to panels stacked with Chinese government officials, entrepreneurs and international researchers, or watched demonstrations on using AI to create video games, control robotic movements and respond in real time to conversations via smartglasses. Chinese giants like Huawei and Alibaba and newer Chinese tech darlings like Unitree Robotics were there. DeepSeek was not present, but its name was spoken everywhere. The Hangzhou-based upstart has been at the forefront of Beijing's attempt to push the government use of AI since it released a chatbot model in January, prompting a global craze and driving home China's rapid AI advances. DeepSeek has been put to work over the last six months on a wide variety of government tasks. Procurement documents show military hospitals in Shaanxi and Guangxi provinces specifically requesting DeepSeek to build online consultation and health record systems. Local government websites describe state organs using DeepSeek for things like diverting calls from the public and streamlining police work. DeepSeek helps 'quickly discover case clues and predict crime trends,' which 'greatly improves the accuracy and timeliness of crime fighting,' a city government in China's Inner Mongolia region explained in a February social media post. Anti-corruption investigations - long a priority for Chinese leader Xi Jinping - are another frequent DeepSeek application, in which models are deployed to comb through dry spreadsheets to find suspicious irregularities. In April, China's main anti-graft agency even included a book called 'Efficiently Using DeepSeek' on its official book recommendation list. China's new AI action plan underscores this push, declaring that the 'public sector should take the lead in deploying applications' by embedding AI in education, transportation and health care. It also emphasizes a mandate to use AI 'to empower the real economy' and praises open-source models - which are more easily shared - as an egalitarian method of AI development. Alfred Wu, an expert on China's public governance at the National University of Singapore, said Beijing has disseminated a 'top-down' directive to local governments to use AI. This is motivated, Wu said, by a desire to improve China's AI prowess amid a fierce rivalry with Washington by providing models access to vast stores of government data. But not everyone is convinced that China has the winning hand, even as it attempts to push AI application nationwide. For one, China's sluggish economy will impact the AI industry's ability to grow and access funding, said Singer, who was attending the conference. Beijing has struggled to manage persistent deflation and a property crisis, which has taken a toll on the finances of many families across the country. 'So much of China's AI policy is shaped by the state of the economy. The economy has been struggling for a few years now, and applications are one way of catalyzing much-needed growth,' he said. 'The venture capital ecosystem in AI in China has gone dry.' Others point out that local governments trumpeting their usage of DeepSeek is more about signaling than real technology uptake. Shen Yang, a professor at Tsinghua University's school of artificial intelligence, said DeepSeek is not being used at scale in anti-corruption work, for example, because the cases involve sensitive information and deploying new tools in these investigations requires long and complex approval processes. He also pointed out that AI is still a developing technology with lots of kinks. 'AI hallucinations still exist,' he said, using a term for the technology's generation of false or misleading information. 'If it's wrong, who takes responsibility?' These concerns, however, felt far away in the expo's humming hallways. At one booth, Carter Hou, the co-founder of Halliday, a smartglasses company, explained how the lenses project a tiny black screen at the top of a user's field of vision. The screen can provide translation, recordings and summaries of any conversation, and even deploy 'proactive AI,' which anticipates questions based on a user's interactions and provides information preemptively. 'For example, if you ask me a difficult question that is fact related,' Hou said, wearing the trendy black frames, 'all I need to do is look at it and use that information and pretend I'm a very knowledgeable person.' Asked about the event's geopolitical backdrop, Hou said he was eager to steer clear of diplomatic third rails. 'People talk a lot about the differences between the United States and China,' he said. 'But I try to stay out of it as much as possible, because all we want to do is just to build good products for our customers. That's what we think is most important.' Kiki Lei, a Shanghai resident who started an AI video company and attended the conference on Sunday, seemed to agree with this goal. She said that Chinese AI products are easier to use than U.S. products because companies here really 'know how to create new applications' and excel at catering to, and learning from, the large pool of Chinese technology users. Robots, perhaps the most obvious application of AI in the real world, were everywhere at the conference - on model factory floors and in convenience stores retrieving soda cans, shaking disbelieving kids' hands, or just roaming the packed halls. At the booth for ModelBest, another Beijing-based AI start-up, a young student from China's prestigious Tsinghua University, who was interning at the company, demonstrated how a robot could engage with its surroundings - and charm its human interlocutors. Looking directly at the student, the robot described his nondescript clothing. 'The outfit is both stylish and elegant,' the robot continued. 'You have a confident and friendly demeanor, which makes you very attractive.' - - - Pei-Lin Wu in Taiwan contributed to this report. --- Video Embed Code Video: Robots ruled at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, where China displayed its latest tech and AI innovation. Washington Post China correspondent Katrina Northrop reported from the event on July 26.(c) 2025 , The Washington Post Embed code: Related Content Pets are being abandoned, surrendered amid Trump's immigration crackdown The Post exposed this farmer's struggle. Then the USDA called. Kamala Harris will not run for California governor, opening door for 2028 run Solve the daily Crossword
