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Axios
31-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Trump moves toward Russian oil penalties — ambiguously
Trade could be an impetus behind President Trump 's threat to impose some kind of penalty on India over its imports of Russian energy. Why it matters: It would mark the first tangible carry-through from Trump's threats to hit Russian buyers to create leverage for a cease-fire in Ukraine. India is a major importer of Russian oil, with purchases surging since Europe started shunning the Kremlin's barrels. Driving the news: The threat came in a wider Truth Social post Wednesday, in which Trump threatened a 25% overall tariff on India, plus an undefined "penalty" over Russian energy, starting Friday. The intrigue: ClearView Energy Partners says Trump's comments on India could be more about pressure to reach a trade deal than swaying Russia on Ukraine. "That said, trade pressure today does not rule out peace pressure tomorrow, and we would not bet against additional economic force projection vis-à-vis Russian crude buyers on or before August 7," it said in a note, referring to the theoretical deadline Trump imposed. Catch up quick: Trump has previously threatened 100% tariffs on all buyers of Russian energy, which would hit China, the top importer, especially hard. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent repeated the saber-rattling earlier this week, while Trump on Tuesday gave Russia 10 days. Bipartisan legislation to impose these huge secondary sanctions is rattling around Congress as well, though Trump claims leeway to act alone. State of play: Oil moved higher after Trump's post, and prices are at their highest levels since mid-June, with Brent trading this morning at $72.82. What we're watching: Whether Trump is actually, really, truly prepared to play hardball on Russian energy, which could raise oil prices.
New York Times
31-07-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Countries Promise Trump to Buy U.S. Gas, and Leave the Details for Later
Trade negotiations have for years focused on the rules of the road for commerce between nations. Under President Trump, the deal making has been more direct, especially when it comes to energy. Countries are now agreeing to purchase American fossil fuels, in specific amounts and often years into the future, whether or not their economies will demand it or whether the United States will have the ability to supply it. That adds a layer of government sway over what are typically open market transactions. And it's not clear how — or whether — political leaders will get private companies to go along. 'This is new, and generally that's because in trade agreements you want things that are clear and enforceable,' said David Goldwyn, a former U.S. diplomat and U.S. Energy Department official. 'These energy commitments are neither clear nor necessarily enforceable. They're more aspirational, political encouragements.' The European Union, for example, committed to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products — including crude oil, nuclear reactor fuel, natural gas and other petroleum derivatives — over three years. On an annual basis, that would amount to more than three times the amount the bloc bought last year from the United States. Trump's deal with Europe The deal would require a huge jump in U.S. energy exports in the future. Note: Estimate based on the E.U.'s commitment to buy $750 billion in U.S. energy exports through 2028. Source: ClearView Energy Partners analysis of Census Bureau data By The New York Times The European Union has been buying more American gas since Russia, previously a big supplier, attacked Ukraine in 2022, and there is appetite to buy more. But purchasing $250 billion a year would require the bloc to use the United States as essentially its only supplier. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Russia Today
23-07-2025
- Business
- Russia Today
AI fueling energy price rises in US
Booming demand from artificial intelligence (AI) has been driving up electricity costs in the US, the Financial Times has reported, citing the country's largest grid operator (PJM). The surge is at odds with President Donald Trump's pledge to deliver more affordable energy for American households. Power use is being pushed higher by energy-hungry AI data centers, especially in Virginia's 'data center alley'. In particular, the demand for AI computing has exploded since ChatGPT became a household name, putting growing pressure on the grid. Experts say the boom, along with delays in new power projects and shutdowns of older plants, is forcing utilities to spend heavily on infrastructure. The PJM grid, which serves 65 million people across 13 states and Washington DC, said on Tuesday it will pay power producers $16.1 billion to meet expected demand between mid-2026 and mid-2027 – a 10% increase on last year. Customers are expected to see bills rise by up to 5%. The pressure is a blow to Trump's repeated vow to slash household energy bills by half. Labor Department data shows electricity prices rose 5.6% over the past year, while overall inflation stood at 2.7%. 'It's unpleasant for ratepayers,' Timothy Fox from ClearView Energy Partners told the FT, adding that 'higher auction prices will result in higher bills for customers.' PJM introduced a cap after prices soared 800% last year. The auction sets payments for producers to supply power during peak demand, helping avoid blackouts. However, this year's result still came in near the ceiling – at over $329 per megawatt-day. Rising costs add to inflationary pressure from Trump's own policies – including global tariffs and his so-called 'big, beautiful' infrastructure bill, both of which have added to the burden on American households. Analysts warn the power crunch will intensify. PJM projects a 32-gigawatt jump in demand by 2030 – nearly all of it from data centers. Tech giants such as Amazon are already scouring the grid for extra capacity, helping drive prices even higher.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices retreat as markets assess Iranian retaliatory strikes are unlikely to affect global supplies
U.S. oil prices sank Monday afternoon as markets assessed that reports of retaliatory strikes by Iran were unlikely to affect energy supplies in the Middle East. The U.S. crude oil price benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, fell 7% to less than $69 a barrel — the lowest price in more than a week — after having climbed as much as 4% overnight. The global Brent crude price benchmark likewise fell about 7%. Major stock indexes turned positive. Just after 1 p.m. Monday, Iran said it had launched missiles toward a U.S. base in Qatar. Reports suggested the missiles had been intercepted. Markets are viewing the strikes "as more of a symbolic retaliatory attack rather than one to result in significant damage to USA assets in the region," said Andy Lipow, president of Andy Lipow Associates energy consultancy and an oil markets expert, in an email to NBC News. As a result, he said, oil markets have begun selling off, since it appears shutting down marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf through which about one-fifth of the world's oil supply travels, will not figure into Iran's retaliatory measures. It also sets up the possibility for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, which first heated up last week following Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, Lipow said. Kevin Book, heard of research at ClearView Energy Partners consultancy said in an email that markets had primed themselves for a worst-case scenario in the run-up to Monday afternoon. "This may be that market selling the news, especially if Iran's retaliation had limited impacts," he said. Trump has signaled he is keenly aware of the market's response. Earlier Monday, he posted on his Truth Social platform: 'EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!' It is not clear who he was addressing, as prices are controlled by market forces weighing supply and demand. Over the weekend, Iran's state-owned media reported that Iran's parliament backed closing the Strait of Hormuz — but that the final decision lies with Iran's national security council, according to the report. While the strait represents a vital node for global oil supplies, it now accounts for only about 7% of total U.S. crude oil imports. Overall, U.S. crude oil imports from countries in the Persian Gulf fell to their the lowest level in nearly 40 years last year thanks to booming domestic production and imports from Canada, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The past 12 hours have seen volatile trading in oil markets as traders assessed the potential fallout from the weekend U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Wall Street analysts said that by ordering the strikes, President Donald Trump has injected further uncertainty into markets already on edge from his on-again, off-again tariff announcements. 'There is in our view a wide range of outcomes for oil prices in the next few weeks,' analysts with UBS financial group wrote in a note to clients. 'The nature and extent of Iranian retaliation remains the key parameter.' Analysts with ING financial group earlier outlined four possible avenues for Iran: full escalation that also draws in other nations such as China or Russia; disruption of the Strait of Hormuz; active or passive support for terrorist attacks in the U.S. and Europe; or taking no action at all. 'We will abstain from speculating about the next steps and instead conclude that the most likely economic consequences from the US strikes will be on general uncertainty and on the price of oil,' the ING analysts wrote in a note to clients. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
New York Times
15-06-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Gasoline Prices Likely to Rise as Israel Targets Iran's Energy Infrastructure
American consumers are likely to start feeling the impact of the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, as more expensive oil causes prices at the gas pump to rise. U.S. oil prices jumped 12 percent from Tuesday to Friday, to $72.98 a barrel, and energy prices may climb higher after Israel struck several Iranian oil and gas facilities over the weekend. Those included one of the world's largest natural gas fields, known as South Pars; Tehran's main gas depot; and an oil refinery. Last week's increase in oil prices could cause gasoline prices to rise about 20 cents a gallon in the coming weeks, according to ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington research firm. Oil and fuels like gasoline and diesel had been relatively cheap leading up to Israel's strikes on Iran last week, which could cushion the blow to consumers. A gallon of regular gasoline costs $3.14 on average, down from $3.45 this time last year, according to the AAA motor club. How Iran responds to Israel's latest strikes will have a big effect on oil prices. The country is a large oil producer and its position on the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, a major thoroughfare for oil and liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., means that it could severely disrupt global energy markets. If Iran were to close the waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman for even a short time, oil prices could rise anywhere from $8 to $31 a barrel, according to ClearView Energy Partners. 'Escalation of the conflict presents many supply risks, but — at peril of stating the obvious — the greatest is probably an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime energy cargoes,' the firm's analysts wrote on Saturday. Iran has an economic incentive to allow tankers to continue passing through the strait, as it ships oil through that channel, much of it to China. And although the United States has been buying less and less oil from the Persian Gulf, the commodity is traded globally, leaving consumers and businesses exposed to price increases. Should U.S. oil companies respond to higher prices by drilling more, it would still take many months for that oil to start flowing. Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.
