Latest news with #PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics
Nikkei Asia
2 days ago
- Business
- Nikkei Asia
South Korea should join CPTPP: former trade minister
WASHINGTON -- South Korea should join the CPTPP and diversify its trade as part of the bloc as U.S. President Donald Trump's policies add uncertainty to existing dealings, a former trade minister said. The Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies are compelling countries around the world to diversify their trade portfolios and rethink their economic relationships with the U.S., wrote Yeo Han-koo and Cecilia Malmstrom, a former European commissioner for trade, in a recently posted online policy memo for the Peterson Institute for International Economics here.
West Australian
2 days ago
- Business
- West Australian
China's industrial profits rise at faster pace in April despite trade tensions, deflationary pressures
China's industrial profits rose for a second-straight month in April, official data showed Tuesday, with their growth improving despite prohibitive US tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures. Cumulative profits at major industrial firms climbed 3 per cent last month compared to a year earlier, accelerating from a 2.6 per cent growth in March. In the first four months this year, industrial profits rose 1.4 per cent, year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, bolstered by stronger earnings in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors. US President Donald Trump slapped eye-watering tariffs of 145 per cent on imports from China last month, drawing Beijing to retaliate, effectively amounting to a mutual trade embargo between the world's two largest economies. That, however, did not significantly impact Chinese exports that found other markets. Earlier this month, Washington and Beijing agreed to lower most of those levies, following a trade truce struck during a meeting between the Trump administration and Chinese leadership in Geneva, Switzerland. US tariffs on goods imported from China are now down to 51.1 per cent while China's levies on US imports stand at 32.6 per cent, according to think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics. The profit growth in April was stronger than expected, said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, noting the 'encouraging' sign that the manufacturing firms saw improved bottom-lines despite the 'more challenging external environment'. Profits in the high-tech manufacturing industry from January to April climbed 9 per cent from a year earlier, with notable improvement in the biopharmaceutical products and aircraft manufacturing. Supported by a scheme that subsidises consumers who trade in old electronics and appliances, the household appliances manufacturers also saw profits improve over 15 per cent from a year ago, data showed. Profits in the mining sector fell 26.8 per cent year on year in the January to April period, while the manufacturing and utilities sectors — electricity, heating, gas and water supply — saw them rise 8.6 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively. State-owned industrial firms saw their profit decline 4.4 per cent in the January to April period compared to the same period a year ago. Private enterprises and those with foreign investments saw profits improve 4.3 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively. Weining Yu, a statistician at the NBS, attributed the improved profitability to the industrial sectors' 'resilience and ability to withstand shocks', while cautioning that 'constraints such as insufficient demand and declining prices' still persist and 'uncertainty in the external environment' is still high. Certain industries also faced steeper headwinds, Song pointed out, such as the automobile sector that's caught in a severe 'price competition' and the apparel sector which is likely to have seen demand shift to other markets after the rollout of new tariffs. Auto industry profits slumped 5.1 per cent year on year in the first four months this year, while the textile, clothing and apparel industry saw a 12.7 per cent decline. The profit gain in major industrial enterprises came on the back of a 6.1 per cent expansion in industrial output in the country last month. Retail sales growth, however, slowed to 5.1 per cent from a year earlier, underscoring the persisting supply-demand imbalance in the economy. China's industrial profits returned to growth in the first quarter this year, rising 0.8 per cent from a year earlier, reversing the trend of declines since the third quarter of last year. CNBC
CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
China's industrial profits rise 3% in April after output beat estimates despite U.S. tariffs
China's industrial profits rose in April from a year earlier, official data showed Tuesday, despite prohibitive U.S. tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures. Cumulative profits at major industrial firms climbed 3% in April after returning to growth in the first quarter of this year, rising 0.8% from a year earlier, reversing the trend of declines since the third quarter of last year. In the first four months this year, industrial profits rose 1.4%, the data showed. U.S. President Donald Trump slapped eye-watering tariffs of 145% on imports from China last month, drawing Beijing to retaliate, effectively amounting to a mutual trade embargo between the world's two largest economies. Both sides agreed to lower most of those levies earlier this month, following a trade truce struck during a meeting between the Trump administration and Chinese leadership in Geneva, Switzerland. U.S. tariffs on goods imported from China have fallen to 51.1% while China's levies on U.S. imports stand at 32.6%, according to think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics. China's manufacturing activity fell more than expected to a 16-month low in April, with the official purchasing managers' index coming in at 49.0, sliding into contractionary territory for the first time this year. Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% from a year earlier while industrial output expanded 6.1% on year, underscoring the persisting supply-demand imbalance in the economy. Exports to the U.S. plunged over 21% from a year earlier as the triple-digit tariffs kicked in, while overall exports surged 8.1% on the back of a jump in shipments to Southeast Asian nations.
The Star
5 days ago
- Health
- The Star
China's 2019 fentanyl embargo led to drop in US overdoses, study finds
US President Donald Trump angered Beijing when he cited China's involvement in the fentanyl trade as the reason for imposing tariffs in February. But new research indicates that cooperation between the two nations to crack down on the drug's trafficking can disrupt its supply chain and reduce overdose deaths. A paper by the Peterson Institute for International Economics this month found that a 2019 embargo by China on the export of fentanyl and precursor chemicals caused a temporary spike in the drug's street price in the US, which deterred its use and reduced fentanyl-related overdose deaths by up to 25 per cent over a period of three to five months. Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. Beijing imposed a strict drug control policy in May 2019, adding all fentanyl-related substances to its list of controlled substances, restricting their export. 'The Chinese embargo of fentanyl exports to the United States in May 2019 does appear to have affected prices,' the paper said, estimating that absent China's restrictions, as many as 947 more Americans would have died from a fentanyl overdose. The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that nationwide deaths from fentanyl overdoses from May 1 to August 1 in 2019 was 2,254, rising to 3,807 by October 1, with the total death toll for the year estimated at 34,268. Despite the drug's addictive nature, the study found, users responded to price changes: a price rise of 1 per cent was associated with a decrease of as much as 4 per cent in the monthly growth rate of fentanyl-related overdose deaths. Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, is the primary driver of US drug overdoses, an issue that Washington has blamed on China, where many of the drug's precursor ingredients are produced. The US and China have engaged in multiple rounds of negotiations related to fentanyl since Trump's first administration. Beijing's restrictions on fentanyl came after Trump, then in his first term, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2018 at the G20 summit in Argentina. Peterson determined that a clear and immediate effect could be seen, with prices for the drug increasing in the US over a limited duration. However, the research also indicated that as supply routes shifted into Mexico, the effect did not last. In 2022, for example, after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, Beijing suspended all counternarcotics cooperation with Washington. The report, though, found this breakdown had no significant effect on fentanyl supply or use, indicating that the drug's supply chain had already shifted to third-country smuggling. After the break over Pelosi's trip, cooperation resumed in November 2023 following a meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping at the Apec summit in California. A bilateral counternarcotics working group was formed in early 2024, but the study did not include its impact. Fentanyl-related deaths in the US rose steadily for years, from an estimated 29,725 in 2018 to a high of 76,282 in 2023. Until 2023, CDC did not publish exact figures for fentanyl alone, instead tracking death rates involving 'synthetic opioids other than methadone'. But the sharp upwards trend has begun to ease. According to CDC estimates, overdose deaths linked to fentanyl dropped to 48,422 in 2024. Fentanyl has also been among the second Trump administration's primary issues with China. In February, Trump imposed 20 per cent duties on Chinese imports – as well as 25 per cent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports – in the name of stopping trafficking of fentanyl into the US. Those China tariffs remain in effect despite the talks in Switzerland this month that led to significant cuts in other levies. As fentanyl production has shifted to Mexico, the Peterson report concluded, Washington may need to expand its focus beyond Beijing, meaning that real progress in the fight against fentanyl will require coordinated international efforts – not only with China. 'Our analysis highlights the large potential benefits of international cooperation regarding drug enforcement,' it added. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said this month that the US had used fentanyl as 'a pretext' to impose tariffs on China 'without justification', and that China would maintain its retaliatory tariffs. He also said in a separate briefing that the tariffs 'significantly undermine the dialogue and cooperation between China and the United States in the field of counter-narcotics'. More from South China Morning Post: For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2025.
Boston Globe
5 days ago
- Business
- Boston Globe
As Trump demands more military spending, NATO reconsiders what counts
The latter could include building or improving rail lines and bridges to withstand the weight of military convoys, strengthening cybersecurity, or developing advanced technology for weaponry and communications. Some member nations are open to shouldering more of their collective costs, alarmed by Trump's threats to weaken America's support for European security if they don't. 'We have to make sure that we have all the enablers in place, everything related to defense spending in place,' NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said last week after meeting with the alliance's foreign ministers in Turkey, where countries agreed to the 5 percent plan. Advertisement 'Sometimes when you cross a bridge in Europe, you hope with your own car that you safely get across it — let alone with a tank,' he added. Rutte came up with the approach to meeting the spending goal, according to a NATO country's foreign minister and a European diplomat. It combines what many experts think: European countries must spend on hard military power to take responsibility for conventional deterrence while meeting Trump's demand. Advertisement Germany's newly appointed foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, said in Turkey that his government backs Rutte's proposal. His French counterpart, Jean-Noël Barrot, said that a '3 to 3.5 percent target is right,' but hinted at backing the broader plan in remarks to reporters. The new approach reflects allied governments' efforts to win over Trump, or at least show him they are making progress on his appeals. It is also an acknowledgment that NATO members' current pledge, to spend 2 percent of its GDP on the military, is too little to sustain the alliance against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the first full-scale land war in Europe since World War II. Some member states have yet to meet even that commitment. In the latest official figures, 23 of NATO's 32 member states meet or surpass the current 2 percent threshold. The Trump administration appears to be open to allies broadening how they invest in defense spending, so long as the total reaches 5 percent. 'It is definitely more than just missiles, tanks and howitzers,' Matthew G. Whitaker, the new US ambassador to NATO, said last week. 'But at the same time, it's got to be defense-related. It's not a grab-bag for everything.' At the Lennart Meri security conference in Estonia last weekend, Whitaker said that the United States would also commit to the same spending goal of 5 percent, though that amount is much larger than for other NATO countries. The United States spends nearly $1 trillion on global military operations. Increasing the overall spending threshold to 5 percent would bring NATO's collective defense spending to $2.4 trillion, with the United States still paying more than half, according to a recent estimate by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Advertisement In Europe, where 23 states are members of both NATO and the European Union, leaders have considerably bolstered defense and deterrence since Russia invaded Ukraine. But the new spending commitment would require significant investment from laggards like Italy, Portugal, and Spain, and put more pressure on key countries with already high budget deficits, like France and Britain. Some states, like Baltic nations that border Russia, have already planned to spend at least 5 percent of their gross national product on traditional military costs like personnel, weapons, and military operations, including exercises, by the end of the decade. Estonia plans on surpassing that goal in 2026. Poland also aims to reach the goal by next year. 'The target of NATO member countries must be 5 percent in the future,' Estonia's foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, said at the meeting last week. 'And we are not talking about anything other than real defense spending, which is stipulated in NATO regulations.' Without allowing spending on infrastructure and technology, however, it is unlikely that most allies could meet the mark. The Italian government, for example, projects it will reach 2 percent of GDP on defense spending this year, an increase. But Italy does not yet count certain technologies that could be put to military use strictly as defense spending, said Roberto Cingolani, the CEO of the Italian defense firm Leonardo. If they were, he predicted the percentage of Italy's defense expenditures could quickly rise. Advanced technology, like artificial intelligence and cloud computing, is 'becoming the new backbone of defense,' Cingolani said in a recent interview. 'It's not just bullets; it's bullets and bytes.' Advertisement Experts said Trump's demands also created an incentive for Europe to finally break through funding and bureaucratic hurdles to address another vulnerability: upgrading key transit routes for any rapid deployment of troops and weapons. The war in Ukraine has highlighted Europe's shortcomings in such logistical preparedness. Tanks and other heavy military equipment have been stopped from crossing borders in Europe where roads and bridges were too weak to support their weight, a study this year by EU auditors found. Military cargo arriving by train from Western Europe to the Baltics, where Soviet-standard-size rails are still used in some places, must be transferred from one train to another to be delivered to NATO's eastern flank, said Jannik Hartmann of the German Council on Foreign Relations. And many other rail lines among Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland — a key NATO support corridor — are either closed or congested. In case of war, countries need to 'have sufficient alternative routes that we can take if one falls through,' Hartmann said, pointing to a rail bridge in Hannover-Ahlem in Germany, a crossroads for European transit that has been used as a route for shipping military equipment to Ukraine. It is under construction, rerouting trains on long detours that, he said, 'costs not only money, but puts lives on the front line at risk.' This article originally appeared in
