Latest news with #RUN
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Sunrun Stock To $7?
CHONGQING, CHINA - MAY 04: In this photo illustration, the logo of Sunrun Inc. is displayed on a ... More smartphone screen with a stock market chart in the background, on May 04, 2025, in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by) Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) is the leading residential solar installer in the U.S. based on market share. The company's position has become increasingly unstable due to a mix of policy changes, financial pressures, and shifting market dynamics. There's more to consider – With a market capitalization of $2.5 billion, Sunrun has experienced a 36% loss of value over the last year. Investors need to recognize the company's susceptibility to economic downturns, which was evident during the Covid-19 crisis when its stock fell by about 40% in just a few quarters. This historical context raises the possibility that Sunrun's current share price of $11 might decline to approximately $7 if similar market conditions arise again. Nevertheless, for investors aiming for lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns that exceed 91% since its inception. Separately, see Is Intel Stock A Buy Now? Why Is It Relevant Now? Recent actions from both the legislative and executive branches have sped up the expiration of important federal tax credits—namely, the 25D Residential Solar Credit and the 48E Investment Tax Credit—shortening the opportunity for Sunrun to take advantage of these vital incentives. An executive order enacted on July 8 complicates the situation further by redefining the term 'under construction,' introducing new compliance challenges. Concurrently, the imposition of substantial tariffs on imported solar equipment jeopardizes cost structures and profit margins. These changes fundamentally impact Sunrun's business model, which heavily relies on tax credits to back its leasing and power purchase agreements. As these incentives wane and operational costs escalate, the company's capability to sustain competitive pricing and profitability is increasingly at risk. How resilient is RUN stock during a downturn? Historically, Sunrun has lagged behind the S&P 500 during market downturns, underscoring its vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks. In the 2022 inflation-driven selloff, RUN tumbled 67.4%, significantly worse than the S&P 500's 25.4% decline, and it has not yet regained its previous highs, presently trading around $10.90. In the downturn triggered by Covid, RUN dropped 38.7% but bounced back swiftly. While the stock can recover, its historical performance indicates high volatility and limited downside resilience. Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures the performance of key stocks during and after the last six market crashes. Protecting Wealth No longer merely a solar stock, Sunrun now serves as a high-stakes indicator of the trajectory for rooftop solar as federal policy shifts become less predictable. Although the company is actively adapting—expanding into energy storage, changing billing models, and tweaking its supply chain—investors continue to be concerned about the pace and effectiveness of these strategic adjustments. With increasing regulatory challenges and expiring incentives, the market is closely monitoring whether Sunrun can adjust quickly enough to maintain growth and protect its margins. RUN stock is currently trading at 1.1x price-to-sales, below its 3-year average of 1.5x and considerably less than the S&P 500 average of 3.1x. While this might imply a discount, it does not categorize it as 'deep value.' Sunrun continues to be valued as a growth company, and when growth appears uncertain, justifying that premium becomes more difficult. Considering the wider economic uncertainties, ask yourself the question: Do you wish to retain Sunrun stock now? Would you feel compelled to sell if it begins to decline to $8, $7, or even lower? Holding onto a declining stock is never easy. Trefis collaborates with Empirical Asset Management—a Boston-based wealth manager—whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has integrated the Trefis HQ Portfolio into this asset allocation strategy to offer clients better returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index; providing a less turbulent experience, as demonstrated in the HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Indian Express
2 days ago
- General
- Indian Express
Preliminary report gives ‘greater clarity' and raises ‘additional questions'; don't draw any conclusion yet as AI 171 crash probe far from over: Air India CEO to staff
Following the release of the preliminary report into the June 12 crash of an Air India Boeing 787-8 aircraft in Ahmedabad, the Tata group airline's MD and CEO Campbell Wilson on Monday told employees that the report has unsurprisingly 'provided greater clarity', but also 'opened additional questions' about the tragic accident. In a message to staff, Wilson said that instead of focusing on media speculation about the causes of the crash, they should note that the report didn't find any mechanical or maintenance issue with the ill-fated aircraft and its engines, and found no problems with the fuel quality, the aircraft's take-off role, and the pilots' medical status. He also urged staff to not draw any conclusion at this stage as the preliminary report didn't identify the cause of the accident and the investigation is far from over. 'It (preliminary report) also triggered a new round of speculation in the media. Indeed, over the past 30 days, we've seen an ongoing cycle of theories, allegations, rumours and sensational headlines, many of which have later been disproven. Instead of focusing on such interpretations, I suggest we note that the Preliminary Report found no mechanical or maintenance issues with the aircraft or engines, and that all mandatory maintenance tasks had been completed,' Wilson said. 'There was no issue with the quality of fuel and no abnormality with the take-off roll. The pilots had passed their mandatory pre-flight breathalyser and there were no observations pertaining to their medical status,' the Air India CEO added. The doomed aircraft was operating flight AI 171 from Ahmedabad to London Gatwick, and crashed moments after take-off, killing 260 people—241 of the 242 people on board and 19 on ground. It was the worst aviation disaster involving an Indian airline in four decades, and globally the first-ever fatal crash of Boeing's latest-generation wide-body aircraft—the 787 Dreamliner. The preliminary investigation report released early Saturday by India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) has zeroed in on the probable primary trigger of the accident—the engines being starved of fuel with the transitioning of the fuel control switches from 'RUN' to 'CUTOFF' position within a second of each other moments after lift-off. From the cockpit voice recorder data, the report notes that one of the pilots asked the other why he cut off the fuel, to which the other pilot responded saying he did not. The report just says the engine fuel control switches that allow and cut fuel flow to the plane's engines transitioned from RUN to CUTOFF. It does not state these were moved by either of the pilots. According to experts, the investigators should now focus on unearthing the cause behind the transitioning of the fuel control switches, which are used to allow and cut fuel supply to the engines. There is considerable speculation on whether the switches were flicked by one of the pilots—inadvertently or otherwise—or whether the transition signal to the system was due to any technical, mechanical, or software issue. The report did not issue any recommendation to other operators of the Boeing 787-8 aircraft and its GE engines, suggesting that at this stage, the investigators do not have a reason to believe that there was any issue with the plane or its engines. 'The Preliminary Report identified no cause nor made any recommendations, so I urge everyone to avoid drawing premature conclusions as the investigation is far from over. We will continue to co-operate with the investigators to ensure they have everything they need to conduct a thorough and comprehensive enquiry,' Wilson said. He also reiterated that 'out of an abundance of caution and under the oversight of the DGCA', every Boeing 787 aircraft operating in Air India's fleet was checked within days of the accident, and all were found fit for service. The airline continues to perform all necessary checks, and will fully comply with any additional checks that the country's aviation authorities may suggest. 'Until a final report or cause is tabled there will no doubt be new rounds of speculation and more sensational headlines. We must nevertheless remain focused on our task and be true to the values that have powered Air India's transformation journey over the past three years – integrity, excellence, customer focus, innovation and teamwork. Let us not be diverted from what are our top priorities: standing by the bereaved and those injured, working together as a team, and delivering a safe and reliable air travel experience to our customers around the world,' Wilson said. An aircraft is an extremely sophisticated and complex machine, and detailed and painstaking investigations are required to ascertain the exact cause or combination of causes behind an accident. The odds that an aviation accident has a single trigger are rare; there could be many, or one leading to another. The AAIB is expected to release the final probe report within a year of the crash, as per international guidelines. Sukalp Sharma is a Senior Assistant Editor with The Indian Express and writes on a host of subjects and sectors, notably energy and aviation. He has over 13 years of experience in journalism with a body of work spanning areas like politics, development, equity markets, corporates, trade, and economic policy. He considers himself an above-average photographer, which goes well with his love for travel. ... Read More
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
"No stone should be left unturned,": Aviation safety firm's CEO on AI 171's crash report
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Martin Consulting's Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Mark D Martin, an aviation safety expert said on Saturday that "no stone should be left unturned," on investigating the AI 171 crash , and urged for the preliminary report to be "taken into the global quorum," so that international safety regulators could also understand the reasons for the Dreamliner 787-8's AI 171 crash of the Boeing Dreamliner 787-8 aircraft in Gujarat's Ahmedabad killed 260 people, including 229 passengers, 12 crew members, and 19 people on the said that one should wait for the full report to come out, but questioned certain aspects of the preliminary report which suggested pilot error , saying that it is "highly unlikely that any pilot, especially during take-off would want to meddle or fiddle around with switches behind the thrust levels.""This will be a complex crash to investigate for the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board), AAIB (Aircraft Accident Investigation Board), Boeing, EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency), the Indian DGCA (Director General of Civil Aviation), and the UKCAA and no stone should be left unturned with this investigation," read a statement from the firm's CEO."It is imperative that this investigation also be taken into the global quorum with the including of ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization), CAA Canada and other Safety oversight regulators that manage and oversee the 787 aircraft operation in their jurisdiction," the statement consulting firm's CEO also said that the report suggests pilot error, saying that "It is highly unlikely that any pilot, especially during takeoff would want to meddle or fiddle around with switches behind the thrust levels. At best, you'd focus on raising the landing gear which is located in the front panel of the cockpit, or raise the flaps."The AAIB's Preliminary Report released on Friday said that both the engines of the aircraft were moved from "run" to "cutoff," in quick succession, which resulted in the fuel supply to be cut off. The report says that in the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why he did the cutoff, which the other pilot denied ever doing so."The aircraft achieved the maximum recorded airspeed of 180 Knots IAS at about 08:08:42 UTC and immediately thereafter, the Engine 1 and Engine 2 fuel cutoff switches transitioned from RUN to CUTOFF position one after another with a time gap of 01 sec. The Engine N1 and N2 began to decrease from their take-off values as the fuel supply to the engines was cut off," the preliminary report said."In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why did he cutoff. The other pilot responded that he did not do so," the report per the Enhanced Airborne Flight Recorder (EAFR) accessed by the AAIB, the engine 1's fuel cut switch transitioned from 'cutoff' to 'run' at about 8:08:52 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time). On 8:08:56 UTC the Engine 2's fuel switch also went from 'cutoff' to run'.According to the report, just 13 seconds later, at 8:09:05 UTC, one of the pilot transmitted the Mayday call, which the Air Traffic Control Officer (ATCO) enquired about, but did not receive a reply. Shortly after, the aircraft was observed crashing outside the airport boundary and the emergency response was Airline Pilots' Association of India on Saturday also called for a "fair, fact-based inquiry," into the incident and rejected the "tone and direction of the investigation" which suggested a bias towards pilot error."The report was leaked to media without any responsible official signature or attribution. There is lack of transparency in investigation as investigations continue to be shrouded in secrecy, undermining credibility and public trust. Qualified, experienced personnel, especially line pilots, are still not being included in the investigation team," the association said in a Minister of State for Civil Aviation Murlidhar Mohol urged people not to draw conclusions based on the preliminary report. While speaking to mediapersons, the MoS said, "The AAIB has brought out a preliminary report. This is not the final report. Until the final report comes out, we should not arrive at any conclusion. AAIB is an autonomous authority, and the ministry does not interfere in their work."
Yahoo
26-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
RBC Capital Markets Downgrades Sunrun (RUN) PT to $5 Over Recent US Senate Proposal
Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) is one of the best small cap tech stocks with biggest upside potential. On June 18, RBC Capital Markets downgraded Sunrun from Outperform to Sector Perform and halved its price target from $12 to $5. The adjustment was prompted by concerns over a recent US Senate proposal that signals the potential elimination of Section 25D residential solar leasing tax credits. While the proposed Senate reconciliation bill preserves tax credits for battery storage, which accounts for ~70% of Sunrun's installations, the solar portion of these systems, which represents less than 30% of the installation value, would no longer qualify for subsidies. RBC analysts believe that without these subsidies, Sunrun's offerings may struggle to compete with conventional utilities across most US regions. A field of solar panels glistening in the afternoon sun, symbolizing the company's renewable energy ambitions. This competitive disadvantage could only be mitigated by declines in interest rates or system costs, or increases in utility prices. RBC also highlighted the elevated soft costs in the US solar market, including high sales and marketing expenses, permitting fees, and overheads. Still, the company was able to generate $56 million in cash in Q1 2025, which marked its 4th consecutive quarter of positive cash generation. Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the US. While we acknowledge the potential of RUN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the . READ NEXT: and . Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
21-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Sunrun Stock (RUN) Plummets 40% as U.S. Senate Targets Solar Credits
The solar sector is reeling after the release of the Senate Finance Committee's proposed tax-and-spending bill, which targets renewable energy sources. Sunrun (RUN), a major player in residential solar, was particularly vulnerable to the news, shedding almost 40% of its valuation in the past week. Having traded as high as $13.20 per share in late May, the stock is now languishing at ~$6 following this week's news. Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter In my view, the proposed incentive cuts pose a significant threat to Sunrun's viability, particularly given its ongoing inability to generate profits despite these benefits being in place. Without that financial support, a turnaround seems even less likely, leaving me firmly bearish on the stock. For those unfamiliar, Sunrun primarily operates under a third-party ownership (TPO) model. Instead of homeowners purchasing solar systems outright, Sunrun installs and owns the panels, allowing customers to either lease the system for a monthly fee or pay for the electricity it generates at a fixed rate. This model has gained popularity because it enables homeowners to adopt solar with little to no upfront cost. Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which extended and enhanced the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC), Sunrun, as the system owner, can claim a tax credit typically worth 30% of the system's cost. This significantly lowers installation expenses and enables Sunrun to pass those savings on to customers, making the model more financially appealing. The Senate Finance Committee has recently proposed eliminating solar tax credits in favor of supporting other energy sectors, such as geothermal, nuclear, and hydropower. If passed, this legislation would require Sunrun to absorb the full cost of its solar systems, which would inevitably be passed on to customers. The result would be a significant squeeze on margins and an acceleration of the company's ongoing cash burn. Senate Republicans are reportedly aiming to pass the bill before the July 4th holiday. Upon closer examination, this appears to mark a broader shift in U.S. energy policy away from residential solar and wind. The market has already begun to react, with notable declines in Sunrun's peers, including Enphase Energy (ENPH) and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), underscoring the potential sector-wide impact. There's still hope for solar advocates. The proposed bill faces strong resistance from Democrats, particularly from the original architects of the clean energy tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act. The clean energy industry is also mounting an aggressive lobbying effort, warning of potential job losses and higher energy costs. And while the bill is led by the GOP, not all Republicans are aligned in support. The legislation still has a long way to go. It narrowly passed the House in May with a 215–214 vote, and the Senate draft was just introduced on June 16. While the Senate version includes more extended phase-out periods for some clean energy incentives, it still calls for the elimination of Section 48E credits, which are key to residential solar leases. A Senate vote is expected soon, and if proponents can secure a simple majority, the bill could advance to President Trump's desk. For context, the current Senate makeup is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents. In the near term, Sunrun could experience a temporary boost in demand as customers rush to take advantage of tax credits before they're phased out. However, expectations for 2026 and beyond point to a sharp and sustained decline in demand. A closer look at Sunrun's financials reveals troubling signs. The company has consistently reported negative operating cash flow, with a loss of over $100 million in Q1 2025 and nearly $800 million in total for 2024, highlighting the financial pressure it faces even before potential incentive cuts take effect. Meanwhile, Sunrun, in its pursuit of growth opportunities, is becoming increasingly leveraged, increasing its risk profile should things take a turn for the worse. Moving forward, ongoing tariff pressures and the disappearance of incentive credits spell long-term trouble for solar installers. Analyst sentiment on Sunrun (RUN) stock is mixed. The stock carries a consensus Hold rating, based on seven Buy, six Hold, and four Sell ratings over the past three months. Despite the cautious stance, RUN's average price target of $10.44 suggests significant upside potential—about 70% from current levels. Mizuho analyst Maheep Mandloi has a Buy (Outperform) rating on RUN with a price target of $16. He notes that the House's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' won't derail grandfathered credits until 2028. He also believes that demand for renewable energy will remain high without government incentives because it is 'still the cheapest option.' However, not everyone shares Mandloi's bullish outlook. Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin Smith downgraded RUN to Sell (Underperform) with a price target of $5. Due to the same legislation, Smith notes that Sunrun is exposed to 'both near- and long-term headwinds.' He believes that the market is underestimating 'how consequential the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' is uniquely on residential solar.' The so-called 'One Big Beautiful Bill' poses a major threat to solar companies like Sunrun. The company's growth has heavily relied on tax credits tied to third-party ownership (TPO) systems. Even with those incentives, Sunrun has struggled to achieve consistent profitability. Without them, serious doubts emerge about its ability to maintain its current business model. If the bill passes, Sunrun—and others in the space—will likely be forced to pivot toward new strategies or market segments. That said, the bill could still fail, or be amended in ways that lessen the impact on Sunrun. Additionally, the proposed phase-out period provides a window for the company to adjust. From my perspective, I'd prefer to stay on the sidelines until there is more regulatory clarity. Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
