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Politico
2 hours ago
- Business
- Politico
The next megabill Congress needs to worry about
'Unless changes are made … you're going to see Medicaid reductions in my state,' Hawley told reporters last week. 'I think that is a huge mistake.' Sixteen House moderates similarly urged Speaker Mike Johnson in a letter in June to revert the Senate's language. They all ended up voting for the bill, but at least some were also thinking that there was an opportunity to revisit the deep cuts in the future. 'Any of the changes in the provider tax don't go into effect until '28, so he's right, there's time,' Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) said about Hawley's comments, though he added that the system does 'have to be reformed' and that 'we're on the right track.' The benefit cuts could figure as a major issue in the 2028 presidential race, too, with likely candidate Vice President JD Vance emerging as a key salesman for the 'big, beautiful bill' and a key defender of the administration's approach. Democrats are already seeking to yoke to with the bill's least popular provisions. Meanwhile, lawmakers in virtually every state will face pressure in 2028 as provisions kick in requiring most states to shoulder part of the costs of federal food aid for the first time. Under the GOP's sweeping bill, states with SNAP payment error rates above 6 percent would have to start paying 5 to 15 percent of the food benefit costs. According to an analysis of data going back to 2003 by the left-leaning Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, only one state has ever had an error rate low enough to avoid the new cost-sharing arrangement. On the flip side, Trump's signature campaign promises to cut taxes for tipped wages, overtime work and seniors are set to sunset at the end of 2029. And blue-state Republicans who fought viciously for an increase to the state-and-local-tax deduction for their constituents are already eyeing making the boosted SALT break permanent down the road. The boost of the deduction from $10,000 to $40,000 was crafted by House Republicans to grow with inflation through 2033 and be permanent after that. But Senate Republicans revised the proposal so the bigger deduction would stay in place for only five years, cutting more than $100 billion from the cost of their tax package. It will be a central issue for lawmakers in swing districts such as Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.) and Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) in their 2026 re-election campaigns — but also for Democrats running for the same seats and in other districts with high property, income and other local taxes. 'I listened to Hakeem Jeffries pontificate about this. He got exactly zero changes when Democrats had complete control. We delivered on a promise that I made when I first ran, and this is a big win,' Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said after the House vote. 'It's the single biggest tax cut in the bill.' When asked whether New Yorkers would push to make sure that the SALT cap doesn't go back to $10,000 after 2029, Lawler responded, 'Of course.'
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Budget bill threatens Mainers' access to food, health care and other necessities, experts warn
Goranson Farm stand at the Portland, Maine farmers market accepts WIC credits. Aug. 10, 2024. (AnnMarie Hilton/Maine Morning Star) Kelli Austin is already juggling being in school, taking care of her children, and running a business. Now, the Waterville resident is worried she will have to choose between food and medicine. Or skip medical appointments so her kids can go to the doctor. 'It's not just me and my kids that are affected by this. There are so many kids right now with parents that are struggling, working two jobs already and juggling multiple hats just to just to barely get by,' she said. Austin, like thousands of Mainers, relies on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP, and Medicaid, which she is scared she will lose because of work requirements in Republicans' budget reconciliation bill that passed the U.S. Senate on Tuesday. 'If this goes through, it's not just numbers on a page,' she said. 'It's gonna be missed appointments, closed clinics and deferred dreams.' Advocates are warning of the disastrous consequences if the budget reconciliation bill becomes law, including jeopardizing access to food and health care for thousands of low income people. Interviews with representatives from half a dozen different groups underscored the concern that the effects of the bill will also be felt by middle class families, small businesses and rural hospitals for years to come. The bill, which Maine's entire congressional delegation voted against, is slated for a final vote in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday, though stalled due to some Republican resistance. The Senate version, which Republican Sen. Susan Collins voted against after initially casting a vote to advance the bill, added provisions that made the bill worse, many experts said. 'It is one of the largest transfers of wealth and greatest cuts to health care and food assistance in this country's history,' said Alex Carter, a policy advocate for Maine Equal Justice, a civil legal aid and economic justice organization. 'I don't think it's dramatic or hyperbolic to say that people are going to go hungry. People are going to not be able to meet their basic needs, and people are going to die if this bill passes.' The bill restricts access to Medicaid, institutes work requirements for food and health care assistance, makes certain reproductive health providers ineligible for federal funding and requires states to cover some SNAP costs, the federal government currently funds. It will also increase premiums for marketplace health insurance. All those cuts are meant to pay for extending tax cuts passed during President Donald Trump's first term that mostly benefit the wealthy, as well as fund a significant increase in immigration enforcement. Many of the advocates who spoke with Maine Morning Star emphasized these provisions will be particularly challenging for a rural, aging state like Maine, where food insecurity, child hunger and health care infrastructure are already stressed and the state does not have extra funding to make up for federal cuts. I don't think it's dramatic or hyperbolic to say that people are going to go hungry. People are going to not be able to meet their basic needs, and people are going to die if this bill passes. – Alex Carter, Maine Equal Justice 'When you look at this bill and what it means for Maine and for Maine people, it effectively means that we're going to lose services,' said Garrett Martin, president and CEO of the Maine Center for Economic Policy. While much of the bill's opposition has focused on the threats to Medicaid — which an estimated 30,000 Mainers could lose as a result — there are other compounding impacts that target the same groups of people whose health care is at risk, Martin and others explained. The impacts may not be felt immediately because different provisions in the bill take effect on different timelines (including some as late as 2028), but 'it's going to take two to three years before people really start to understand how significant this legislation is going to impact them and their communities,' Martin said. The bill will, for the first time, make states like Maine bear some of the cost of SNAP. According to the bill, states with a higher rate of errors, meaning benefits incorrectly issued, will have to bear up to 15% of the costs of the program, which could cost the state up to $60 million in benefits — an unsustainable burden that could effectively dismantle the entire program, according to Anna Korsen, policy and program director at Full Plates, Full Potential, which advocates for state and federal support for child nutrition. The bill also introduces stringent work reporting requirements that would make nutrition benefits harder to obtain and maintain, particularly for families with children and older adults. Although the vast majority of the 176,000 Mainers who use SNAP meet the work requirements, Korsen said the administrative challenge of filling out SNAP benefit forms is already daunting for families. Adding the additional work requirement will push people out of the program, she said. 'The problem isn't that people aren't working. The challenge that they're creating is that people are going to get caught up in all of this red tape and paperwork,' she said. 'So what they're trying to do is just make SNAP harder to get and harder to keep.' When she was finishing school, Austin was part of Maine's Parents as Scholars financial aid program, which made her eligible for federal assistance. But under the budget bill, she will have to meet work requirements to be eligible for SNAP and Medicaid, which she said is a challenge as a single mom. 'I struggle just to get by as it is, let alone taking me out of the house for that many hours and making me juggle that much more,' she said. 'It's not that we're unwilling to work, it's that we're underserved.' 'I'm not asking for a handout by any right, but I'm asking for a fair shot for myself and my kids,' Austin added. Calling Medicaid a 'lifeline' for Mainers, health advocates urge Collins to oppose GOP budget bill The changes would not only impact food security but also harm local economies, with SNAP benefits generating nearly $548 million in annual economic activity in Maine. Small grocery stores could lose up to 20% of their revenue, and local farms could also suffer significant setbacks by losing the revenue that comes from SNAP. Korsen argued that the bill's provisions create an all-or-nothing scenario for states, forcing them to either pay massive new costs or opt out of the SNAP program entirely. Indirectly, the legislation also threatens other forms of food assistance, such as free school meals, summer nutrition programs, and WIC benefits, because if a family qualifies for Medicaid or SNAP benefits, they are automatically eligible for free meals. This direct certification allows school districts to be accurately reimbursed by the federal government for providing those meals. 'Schools are scared, families are scared,' Korsen said. 'It's just unbelievable that our government would think that this is okay.' The proposal also ends the work requirement exemption for homeless people and veterans on SNAP, which means thousands of vulnerable people could go hungry, according to Terence Miller, advocacy director at the Portland-based homeless services organization Preble Street. That would put even more strain on privately run food banks, which already faced setbacks when the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut programs that allow them to buy from local farms. 'I mean, a veteran who fought for our country and finds themselves unhoused and needing food is no longer eligible to receive SNAP benefits,' he said. 'It's just unfathomable to me to think that those people will not be able to buy their own food.' In addition to sweeping Medicaid cuts, thousands of Maine residents who rely on marketplace health insurance could see their premiums dramatically increase. According to an analysis by the Maine Center for Economic Policy, approximately 63,000 Mainers with marketplace coverage will be significantly impacted by the expiration of premium tax credits, Martin said. For example, a family of four earning around $78,000 annually could see its monthly premiums double from $263 to $476. Even more stark are the potential increases for older residents: a 62-year-old couple earning $85,000 might face a premium jump from $608 to $2,346 per month. Those premium tax credits have been crucial in making health insurance affordable, Martin explained. About 85% of marketplace participants currently receive these subsidies, which help cap health insurance costs for individuals and families. The potential elimination of these credits represents more than just a financial burden, Martin added, it could force many Maine residents to choose between maintaining health coverage or cutting other essential expenses. 'At the same time that health coverage is being taken away from low income households and individuals and people with disabilities, we're also seeing a scenario in which arguably middle class families are likely to see a significant increase in costs for themselves as a consequence of this,' Martin said. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
The Hill
6 hours ago
- Business
- The Hill
Democrats pick fight over how GOP's SNAP change hits states
Republicans are defending recent legislation aimed at incentivizing states to fight erroneous payments through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) — but Democrats are picking a fight over a last-minute change they argue encourages states to have higher error rates. Legislation passed out of the GOP-led Congress on Thursday that could see some states pay a share of benefit costs for SNAP, also known as the food stamps program, for the first time. The federal government currently covers the cost of benefits, but under the plan that's been tossed around by congressional Republicans over the past few months, some states would have to cover anywhere between 5 percent and 15 percent of the benefits costs if they have a payment error rate above 6 percent — which factors in over-and-underpayments. However, changes were made to the text that allowed delayed implementation for the cost-share requirements for states with the highest error rates shortly before its passage in the Senate this week. GOP leadership sought to lock down support from Alaska Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, whose state had the highest payment error rate in the country in fiscal year 2024. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, said Republicans made the change to comply with chamber rules. 'You have to give those states time to adjust because about all they're going to do is get down to that midrange, and then they're still going to have to pay a penalty because they're so high,' he said. 'So, it's about giving states a fair chance to adjust.' Under the plan that was greenlit by Congress on Thursday, some states would begin contributing a share of benefit costs in fiscal year 2028, depending on their payment error rate. But the plan also allows for delayed implementation for two years for states with payment error rates if they reach around 13.34 percent or higher — an effort Republicans say is aimed at providing states like Alaska with much higher rates to bring them down. Hoeven said the GOP-led agriculture committee, which crafted the SNAP pitch, 'came up with a lot of proposals' trying to comply with restrictive rules governing a special process that Republicans used to approve the plan in the upper chamber without Democratic support. Under the rules, Hoeven said, 'they always said you got to give states time to adjust in order to meet the test.' Republicans say the overall proposal is aimed at incentivizing states to reduce erroneous payments. But Democrats have sharply criticized the plan, arguing it would encourage states with higher error rates to continue making erroneous payments. 'The most absurd example of the hypocrisy of the Republican bill: they have now proposed delaying SNAP cuts FOR TWO YEARS ONLY FOR STATES with the highest error rates just to bury their help for Alaska: AK, DC, FL, GA, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR. They are rewarding errors,' Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), top Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, wrote this week as she sounded off in a series of posts on X over the plan. In another swipe at the plan, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) wrote on X that he had to text his state's governor that 10 states with 'the MOST ERRORS in administering the program' are 'exempt from food assistance cuts,' at that Hawaii is not exempt because the governor has done 'good work in reducing the error rate by 15 percent.' The comments come as Democrats and advocates have argued the measure could lead to states having to cut benefits because of the shift in cost burden. Recent figures unveiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed Alaska's payment error rate hit 24.66 percent in fiscal year 2024. The national average was 10.93 percent. Murkowski said after the vote that she didn't 'like' the bill but sought to 'to take care of Alaska's interests.' But she also said she knew 'that, in many parts of the country, there are Americans that are not going to be advantaged by this bill.' 'I don't like the fact that we moved through an artificial deadline, an artificial timeline to produce something, to meet a deadline, rather than to actually try to produce the best bill for the country,' she said. 'But when I saw the direction that this is going, you can either say, 'I don't like it and not try to help my state,' or you can roll up your sleeves.' Republicans also criticized Democrats for challenging a previous GOP-crafted SNAP provision that sought to provide more targeted help to Alaska, as GOP leadership sought to win Murkowski's support for the bill, which ultimately passed the Senate in a tie-breaking vote. However, Democrats opposed previously proposed waivers for the noncontiguous states of Alaska and Hawaii, decrying 'special treatment.' In remarks on Wednesday, House Agriculture Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.) the Senate 'had to add something to get to address that challenge that Alaska has.' 'The goal is, from a functionality perspective, they need to get their error rate down as soon as possible, because when the time comes, and they have to start to pay, they don't want to be that high error rate that you're coming in now,' he said. 'In most states, Alaska would be a challenge, I think, but most states have been under 6 percent at one time in past years,' he said. However, he also wasn't 'crazy about' work requirements exemptions for some Indigenous populations in the Senate's version of Trump's megabill that didn't appear in the House bill, as Republicans seek to tighten work requirements. 'It's what the Senate had to do,' he said, though he noted that 'economic conditions are challenging on those sovereign lands and in high unemployment, high poverty.' It's unclear whether the carve-outs were the result of talks Alaska senators had with GOP leadership around SNAP in the days leading up to the Senate passage. The Hill has reached out to their offices for comment. The Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development said Alaska has 'one of the largest indigenous populations in the nation,' with Alaska Natives representing 17 percent of the state in 2010. At the same time, the Senate bill nixed temporary exemptions that had been preserved in the House bill for former foster youth, homeless individuals and veterans. Despite being preserved in the House plan, Thompson criticized the carve-outs, which were secured as part of a previous bipartisan deal in 2023. 'It cheats all those individuals from having access to that to us funding their SNAP Employment and career and technical education, because the whole goal here is to raise these people out of poverty if they're struggling in poverty, because that's how you qualify for SNAP,' he said. 'And the fact is, they were made ineligible for the really great benefits.' Other proposals in the party's SNAP plan seek to limit the federal government's ability to increase monthly benefits in the future, changes to work requirements and include a chunk of farm provisions. The plan comes as Republicans sought to find ways to generate north of $1 trillion in savings of federal dollars over the next decade as part of a major package that also advances President Trump's tax agenda, which is estimated to add trillions of dollars to the nation's deficits. Republicans say the proposed spending reductions, which are achieved also through changes to programs like Medicaid, are aimed at rooting out 'waste, fraud and abuse' in the federal government. But preliminary research released this week by the Urban Institute found that just the SNAP changes could affect about 22 million families, who researchers said could be at risk of 'losing some or all of their SNAP benefits' under the plan. Asked if last-minute changes to the plan to help other states and not his bothered him, Sen. Jim Justice ( who ultimately voted for the plan, told reporters this week, 'Yes and no.' 'But at the same time, I think they probably had more severe need and so I think it'll be fine,' Justice, a former governor, said Tuesday. 'If it's like any business deal that I've ever seen in my life, you know, the parties of a good business deal walk away after they get something done, and they walk away, and they're probably holding their nose a little bit, and they're probably regretting certain things and saying, 'Doggone, we didn't do good on this and that and everything,' That's a good deal.'
7 hours ago
- Politics
Megabill negotiations show Vance is a key player in the Trump administration
Over the past six months, Vice President JD Vance has shown how much of a key player he has become in the Trump administration, serving as the president's most prominent advocate and advancing his agenda. The latest example came this week, when Vance helped push President Donald Trump's massive tax and spending bill through Congress. Vance held a series of meetings with conservative and moderate holdouts and Senate leadership last Saturday to help move the bill forward. A source with direct knowledge stated that Vance played a key role in talking with Senate holdouts throughout the bill before he ended up casting several tie-breaking votes as president of the Senate and move the spending bill along to the House. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who had been critical of the bill's cuts to Medicaid and SNAP -- the food assistance program -- met with Vance, where he thanked her for being a team player despite her concerns with the legislation, just before she voted for the bill. During the sprint to push the bill through, Vance was criticized for his social post around concerns of the bill's impact on Medicaid, writing that "the minutiae of the Medicaid policy—is immaterial compared to the ICE money and immigration enforcement provisions." During all this, Vance was making phone calls to Trump and the two were updating each other on their talks with senators ahead of the bill's passage. The vice president attended Wednesday's meeting at the White House between Trump and several holdouts from the House as the president ramped up the pressure to vote for the bill. North Carolina GOP Rep. Greg Murphy, who had told reporters on Wednesday night that he was still undecided because of some of the health care provisions, said Thursday that he ultimately decided to support the package after speaking on the phone to Vance and the president. "I needed assurances," he said. A source close to Vance said that he continued to work the phones ahead of the floor vote on the rule, calling multiple House GOP holdouts to make the administration's case for them to support the bill. However, it's not just on the domestic policy front that Vance is having an impact. He has also been critical in supporting Trump's foreign policy. While Trump was weighing the decision to strike Iran's nuclear sites, Vance came to the president's defense after supporters like Tucker Carlson and those in the MAGA base were outspoken against the U.S. getting involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran. "He may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment. That decision ultimately belongs to the president," Vance wrote on X. "And of course, people are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy. But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue. And having seen this up close and personal, I can assure you that he is only interested in using the American military to accomplish American people's goals. Whatever he does, that is his focus." Vance's comments were a departure from his prior statements that the U.S. should not get entangled in foreign conflicts. A prime example is the vice president's opposition to the U.S. providing more aid to Ukraine. "I gotta be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another," Vance said in February 2022, amid an explosion of bipartisan support for the country following the aftermath of Russia's invasion. Most recently, Vance expressed concerns about the president's decision to strike the Houthis in Yemen in a Signal group chat with other top administration officials. "I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now," Vance wrote in the chat. "There's a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices. I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc." In the lead-up to the strikes, Trump was trying to engage the MAGA base with Vance to see what their reaction would be if he ordered the bombing. Prior to the strikes, Trump told reporters on Air Force One while flying back from the G7 summit in Canada that it was possible he could send Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Iranian negotiators. Vance's active role in moving Trump's agenda forward was always part of the plan. In November, following the election, a source close to the vice president told ABC News that Vance had been tasked to ensure that all of the priorities of the Trump administration move forward and would work on any of the issues Trump needed him to further, signaling that the vice president would not be assigned one specific issue to work on, but would be involved in several policy issues. It was also expected that Vance would be Trump's "eyes and ears" in the Senate to ensure that his agenda moves forward, the source also said. It's familiar territory for Vance, who was elected to the Senate in 2022. All this comes as Vance is viewed by some as the MAGA heir apparent to Trump ahead of the 2028 election. At the same time, he is working to raise as much money as possible for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms as chair of the Republican National Committee -- the first time a vice president has ever held the role. Joel Goldstein, a vice-presidential scholar and former professor at Saint Louis University Law School, told ABC News that Vance is working in a different timeline compared to his predecessors, as he will serve only one term as vice president under Trump. "Every vice presidency is different and one of the things that is unique about Vance's is that every other vice president, you know, with the possible exception of Harris, entered office with the expectation that the president was going to run for reelection," Goldstein said. "I think he's in a very unique position in that his first term as vice president is his last, and so his presidential ambitions, the time for reckoning comes up, you know, much quicker than is normally the case." Following his tie-breaking votes in the Senate, several Democrats who might be opponents in the 2028 presidential election attempted to make Vance the face of Trump's spending bill. In a post on X, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg called out Vance for casting the tie-breaking vote to allow the bill to move forward. "VP Vance has cast the deciding vote in the Senate to cut Medicaid, take away food assistance, blow up the deficit, and add tax breaks for the wealthiest," Buttigieg wrote. "This bill is unpopular because it is wrong," he continued. California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom told Americans on X to "bookmark" this moment, writing that "JD Vance is the ultimate reason why 17 million Americans will lose their healthcare." In an interview with NBC News, Trump pointed to Vance and Secretary of State and interim national security adviser Marco Rubio as possible successors, and said, when asked, that he believes his MAGA movement can survive without him.
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Lawmakers say ‘Big, Beautiful Bill' will have major impact on Mid-South
MEMPHIS, Tenn. — Local lawmakers and community leaders share how the president's spending plan, 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' will affect families in the Mid-South. 'This is a big bill, a lot of things are going to happen, and so there are going to be a lot of impacts,' said Worth Morgan, Chair, Shelby County Republican Party. Morgan leads the Shelby County Republican Party. He and other conservatives are celebrating a huge win for the Trump Administration after a federal spending bill coined the 'Big, Beautiful Bill.' Memphis schools could lose $17M in federal funds, district says Morgan says some families may see impacts sooner rather than later. 'They are not going to have taxes on their tips up to a certain amount, you're not going to have taxes on the overtime you make up to a certain amount, if you have a car loan there is a new deduction that you'll be eligible for, if you have children there is an increase to the tax credit,' said Morgan. The bill is now set to implement new work requirements and other changes to programs like 'SNAP,' the food assistance program, and Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Medicaid cuts alone could total roughly $930 billion, with at least 11.8 million people at risk of losing their health coverage. 'For the people of Memphis, it'll be a disaster. It's the worst bill imaginable you can have as a person living in Memphis,' said Congressman Steve Cohen. Cohen, District 9, says many in the Bluff City depend on Medicaid and other relief programs, but he is not the only Democratic lawmaker speaking out. Senator London Lamar said in a statement that the bill 'threatens to shutter a quarter of nursing homes and risks closing nine hospitals in Tennessee alone. That's not just reckless, it's cruel.' House passes Trump's 'big, beautiful' megabill 'Hospitals have become increasingly reliant on Medicaid to stay open, and so now we are pulling the Medicaid leg out from under the stool,' said Gordon Bonnyman, staff attorney with the Tennessee Justice Center. 'They've done this before, requiring work before you can get benefits for Medicaid or SNAP payments. It's never really worked very well. And most of the people want jobs, they can't get them,' said Cohen. 'The goal of this is not for anybody to get hurt, but to try and get the waste, the fraud and abuse that does exist in the system. There is some there, there is an estimate of up to $56 billion in Medicaid fraud last year, and they are trying to target the people that are abusing the system,' said Morgan. Morgan encourages people to do their own research and see how the bill affects their lives, but for now, he says the next question people should be asking politically is what's next? 'It'll be very interesting to see what this administration is going to put forward next,' said Morgan. The Memphis Shelby County School District says it's preparing to lose $17 million of federal funding under the tax bill. Without that money, we're told about 100 jobs could be cut. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
