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Rudaw Net
02-08-2025
- Business
- Rudaw Net
Turkish lira's rocky road: What rate cuts mean for its neighbors
Also in Opinions Iraq's budget shortfall crisis: can oil revenues save the second half of 2025? Iraqi dinar nears official rate as market stabilizes Kurdistan Region's oil production before, after drone strikes Sarsang oil field attack and the Hamrin oil, gas contracts: five key questions A+ A- Turkey's central bank has once again surprised the markets. On July 24, it reduced its benchmark interest rate from 46% to 43%, marking a notable turn back to an easing cycle amid persistent inflation and currency volatility. This decision carries significant implications not only for Turkey's domestic economy but also for neighboring regions that are economically intertwined with it, such as the Kurdistan Region. After a year-long tightening campaign that saw Turkey's interest rate climb sharply to combat inflation and stabilize the Turkish lira, the July rate cut signals that Ankara is shifting strategy. The move comes amid political and economic pressures, but it also reflects an acknowledgment that ultra-high borrowing costs are unsustainable in the long term for Turkey's economy. The lira, which had already weakened considerably, currently trades at around 40 per US dollar. The trajectory of the currency reflects deep-rooted challenges: stubborn inflation, geopolitical risks, and structural economic issues. Some economists project that the lira will continue to lose value through the rest of 2025. In an exclusive interview with Rudaw, prominent Turkish economist and writer Mustafa Sonmez cautioned that the lira is likely to decline further in value, citing both domestic and regional risks. 'The Turkish lira is expected to be 44 Turkish lira against the dollar by the end of the year. However, this depends on political developments,' he said. Sonmez also noted the consequences of policy decisions on capital flows and inflation. 'Yes, lowering interest rates will lead to a shift toward the dollar. This will push up prices, but political risks will also trigger a shift toward foreign currency as a safe haven. This will push prices higher, potentially impacting the Kurdish region,' he said. Indeed, the shift toward looser monetary policy in Turkey raises several interconnected concerns. Lower rates often encourage borrowing and spending, which can stimulate growth. But in a country already grappling with high inflation, such policies risk further currency devaluation and erosion of purchasing power. The lira's continued decline could drive up the cost of imports, fuel inflation, and complicate the government's efforts to restore investor confidence. From a regional perspective, this dynamic is also being closely watched. Shukri Jamil, president of the Duhok Chamber of Commerce, told Rudaw: 'Despite the effort by the Turkish government to replace the US dollar with the euro in trade exchange, still 95% of our trade with Turkey is done by US dollar, so the impact of decreasing the interest rate in Turkey and small change in the Turkish lira value would be limited in our bilateral trade. We are more importer rather than exporter.' Hami Salih, an expert on international trade, noted that in the short term, a weaker lira might benefit Kurdish importers. However, he warned that 'in the long term, it can raise inflation inside Turkey, leading to pricier Turkish goods and commodities that finally damage Kurdish importers.' He added that investor confidence is also suffering: 'Those Kurdish investors who in the past invested in Turkey's real estate market for the goal of getting Turkish residency or citizenship now are disappointed. The continuous lowering of Turkish lira value has erased the value of the bought residential units. In addition, changes in residency and citizenship laws in Turkey worsened confidence.' Mustafa Sonmez said that 'Developments in the Middle East, particularly the tension surrounding the new regime in Syria, will impact the dollar's price. Domestically, the tension created by government operations targeting the Republican People's Party poses a risk to the economy.' Global banks like Goldman Sachs have echoed concerns about the lira's stability. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Turkish lira could weaken to 44.5 per US dollar by the end of 2025, assuming no further rate hikes and continued political uncertainty. JPMorgan also forecasts a gradual depreciation, projecting the lira at 45.2 by early 2026 if inflation returns to near 50%. HSBC analysts have taken a more bearish view, anticipating the lira may reach 46 per US dollar under sustained easing and if foreign reserves are not adequately defended. These forecasts point to a common theme: policy credibility, political stability, and inflation control are key to restoring trust in the Turkish lira. Without those, the risks of continued depreciation remain high. Turkey stands at a critical economic juncture. The return to interest rate cuts may ease short-term pressures but risks reigniting inflation and weakening the lira further. As the lira depreciates, the ripple effects are felt not only by Turkish households and businesses but also by traders and investors in the Kurdistan Region and beyond. With the country on the edge of economic rebalancing and political friction, the coming months will test Ankara's ability to manage competing pressures and stabilize its financial landscape. Omar Ahmed is editor-in-chief of Rudaw's Economy Desk. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.


News18
04-07-2025
- Sport
- News18
Wimbledon 2025: Sonmez Makes History; Becomes First Turkish Player In Open Era To...
Last Updated: Zeynep Sonmez made Turkish tennis history by reaching the third round of Wimbledon, defeating Xinyu Wang. She is the first Turkish player in the Open Era to achieve this milestone. Zeynep Sonmez etched her name into Turkish tennis history on Thursday, becoming the first player from her country in the professional era to reach the third round of a Grand Slam. The 23-year-old defeated China's Xinyu Wang 7-5, 7-5 in a tightly contested match at Wimbledon on Thursday. #Wimbledon — Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 3, 2025 Sonmez expressed hope that her achievement would serve as motivation for young players in Turkey. 'My mom and the people in my team told me that there were videos of kids watching me back home, in tennis clubs on TV," she said. 'And I hope they get inspired or feel like, 'Oh, we can do that too.'" Breaking a 75-Year Drought Her accomplishment is not only a milestone for the Open Era — which began in 1968 — but also breaks a 75-year absence for Turkish women in Grand Slam third rounds. The last woman to do so was Bahtiye Musluoglu, who reached the third round of the French Open in 1950. Before Sonmez, the closest any Turkish player had come in the Open Era was Cagla Buyukakcay, who reached the second round at three majors between 2016 and 2017. Sonmez was cheered on by a spirited contingent of Turkish fans at the All England Club, posing for selfies with supporters after her historic win. 'I feel that there are a lot of Turkish people here, and it makes me very happy," she said. First Wimbledon, First Breakthrough Although this marks Sonmez's first Wimbledon appearance, she already has a WTA title to her name, winning the Merida Open last year. Prior to this tournament, she had exited in the first round at all three of her previous Grand Slam appearances. Now, with history already made, Sonmez is hoping her journey at Wimbledon is just getting started. (with AP inputs) First Published: July 04, 2025, 23:01 IST

NBC Sports
04-07-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Sonmez becomes first Turkish player in Open Era to reach third round of a Slam
Zeynep Sonmez became the first Turkish player in the professional era to reach the third round of a Grand Slam tournament by beating Xinyu Wang 7-5, 7-5 at Wimbledon on Thursday. She hopes her win ensures it won't be that long before another Turkish player reaches that stage. 'My mom and the people in my team told me that there were videos where kids were watching me back at home, in tennis clubs on TV,' Sonmez said. 'And I hope they get inspired or they feel like, 'Oh, we can do that too.'' No Turkish man or woman had made the third round of a major since the Open Era began in 1968, although Cagla Buyukakcay made the second round at three Grand Slams between 2016-17. One has to go back 75 years to find the last Turkish woman to make it that far, when Bahtiye Musluoglu reached the third round of the French Open in 1950. The 23-year-old Sonmez was supported by a number of Turkish fans in the crowd and took selfies with some of them after the match. 'I feel that there are a lot of Turkish people (here) and it makes me very happy,' she said. Sonmez has a WTA title under her belt, at last year's Merida Open, but had lost in the first round in three previous major tournaments. This is her first Wimbledon appearance.


New Indian Express
04-07-2025
- Sport
- New Indian Express
Wimbledon: Zeynep Sonmez becomes first Turkish player in Open Era to reach third round of a Slam
LONDON: Zeynep Sonmez became the first Turkish player in the professional era to reach the third round of a Grand Slam tournament by beating Xinyu Wang 7-5, 7-5 at Wimbledon on Thursday. She hopes her win ensures it won't be that long before another Turkish player reaches that stage. "My mom and the people in my team told me that there were videos where kids were watching me back at home, in tennis clubs on TV," Sonmez said. "And I hope they get inspired or they feel like, 'Oh, we can do that too.'" No Turkish man or woman had made the third round of a major since the Open Era began in 1968, although Cagla Buyukakcay made the second round at three Grand Slams between 2016-17. One has to go back 75 years to find the last Turkish woman to make it that far, when Bahtiye Musluoglu reached the third round of the French Open in 1950. The 23-year-old Sonmez was supported by a number of Turkish fans in the crowd and took selfies with some of them after the match. "I feel that there are a lot of Turkish people (here) and it makes me very happy," she said. Sonmez has a WTA title under her belt, at last year's Merida Open, but had lost in the first round in three previous major tournaments. This is her first Wimbledon appearance.


The Hindu
04-07-2025
- Sport
- The Hindu
Wimbledon: Sonmez becomes first Turkish player in Open Era to reach third round of a Slam
Zeynep Sonmez became the first Turkish player in the professional era to reach the third round of a Grand Slam tournament by beating Xinyu Wang 7-5, 7-5 at Wimbledon on Thursday (July 3, 2025). She hopes her win ensures it won't be that long before another Turkish player reaches that stage. 'My mom and the people in my team told me that there were videos where kids were watching me back at home, in tennis clubs on TV,' Sonmez said. 'And I hope they get inspired or they feel like, 'Oh, we can do that too.'' No Turkish man or woman had made the third round of a major since the Open Era began in 1968, although Cagla Buyukakcay made the second round at three Grand Slams between 2016-17. One has to go back 75 years to find the last Turkish woman to make it that far, when Bahtiye Musluoglu reached the third round of the French Open in 1950. The 23-year-old Sonmez was supported by a number of Turkish fans in the crowd and took selfies with some of them after the match. 'I feel that there are a lot of Turkish people (here) and it makes me very happy,' she said. Sonmez has a WTA title under her belt, at last year's Merida Open, but had lost in the first round in three previous major tournaments. This is her first Wimbledon appearance.